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VeryBumpy

Will a fast enough CPU ever be created?

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53 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Well, I'm probably going to be around for a while (it seems!) unless something unexpected happens, so I don't mind waiting. Plus, I kind of take the longer view. In my mind, its not just about me; its about the future of the hobby and all those potential new simmers out there, that after playing the latest games for years think our decade old sims look about as attractive as pong and run like injured turtles. 😃

Different strokes for different folks for sure. I too am going to be here a while myself. I do agree that future sims and tech are also important but was pointing out that from the numbers I have seen, many of us in the hobby are 50+ and so we see things a bit different. Fox context, I personally have never played a game except many yearsago  I tried a golf game that someone put out. That lasted probably one month or less. Hard as it may be to believe I don't think I ever played PACman or pong but I do know what it looks like. Having said that I do see from Rob's latest FS2 Vid's how great things look and butter smooth. Hopefully P3D will get there with V5 and then we can start enjoying a more full featured Sim very soon.

Edited by shivers9

Sam

Prepar3D V5.0/8086K@5.0/EVGA 1080TI SC Black/850W PSU/Windows 10/40" 4K Samsung Monitor@3840x2160/ASP4/ASCA/ORBX/ChasePlane/General Aviation/Vertx DA-62/

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7 hours ago, VeryBumpy said:

I'm doubting this will ever happen in our old age lifetimes, thoughts if hardware limited frame rate will ever be solved?

CPUs aren't seeing huge increases in performance and probably will not with current architecture -- I'd be surprised if we see 20% improvement in CPU performance within the next 5-7 years.  However, both DX12 and Vulkan API can provide paths for software engineers to unload much of the work the CPU has to do and shift it to the GPU.  GPUs still have some growth left in them and they scale well ... BUT needs to see supporting software coded to leverage them.

I've mentioned this before, but DX12 EMA mode with SFR for multi-GPU support can realize 80% scaling gains (as one adds GPUs) provided the software is coded to support GPU scaling.  Vulkan 1.1 can do much same with multi-GPU support.  On a side note, does anyone know if AF2 Vulkan Beta supports multiple GPUs?

We'd need PETA bytes of storage in order to see the entire globe at the same level of quality as the very small and restricted areas of current 3D shooters.  So even if we were to overcome the FPS battle, we'd have the issue of data storage.

Quantum computing and AI (self learning computers) are the future ... Microsoft and nVidia are putting many resources in to the AI world.  AI is already here and getting better every year (I recall the first time Siri was introduced, it was more frustrating than practical, but today's Siri on my iPhoneX is actually useful and can understand me and comes back with relevant choices/questions).  Hopefully before I die I'll see Quantum computing available to the mass market, Intel are suggesting that my happen within a decade, seems a little optimistic IMHO.

I'm still amazed AF2, XP11, P3D ... I don't consider them as looking bad, I'm very impressed with what they can do on a global scale and their flexibility.  But, I've been around PC graphics since late 70's where monochrome and basic wire-frame geometry passed for a great flight simulator ... it's knowing the roots of FS and how it came what it looks like today ... still provides the level of impressiveness for me.  Just last night I was departing KSFO in A319 and looking out the left window as far as my eye could see and going "wow that's a lot to rendering" ... and knowing that I could zero in on a tiny spec in the distance, fly to it, deboard, get out of my aircraft and join a BBQ in the parking lot with birds flying over my head and dogs barking at me.  I think that's what really impresses me most about flight simulators.

Cheers, Rob.

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9 minutes ago, Rob Ainscough said:

On a side note, does anyone know if AF2 Vulkan Beta supports multiple GPUs?

Don't know about the beta, but I would bet good money its coming......


Just Flight Beta Tester
 
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33 minutes ago, Rob Ainscough said:

We'd need PETA bytes of storage in order to see the entire globe at the same level of quality as the very small and restricted areas of current 3D shooters.  So even if we were to overcome the FPS battle, we'd have the issue of data storage.

I think in the future, engines like Outerra (perhaps not Outerra itself) will provide some facsimile of the earth without requiring the huge amount of Data Orthos would need.....

Tech marches on. I can't imagine where graphics might be in 20 years.

 

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Just Flight Beta Tester
 
We are all connected..... To each other, biologically...... To the Earth, chemically...... To the rest of the Universe atomically.
 
Devons rig
Intel Core i7 8700K @ 5.0GHz / 32.0GB G.SKILL TridentZ Series Dual-Channel Ram / ZOTAC GAMING GeForce® RTX 2080 Ti Triple Fan / Sound Blaster Z / Oculus Rift VR Headset / Klipsch® Promedia 2.1 Computer Speakers / ASUS ROG SWIFT PG279Q ‑ 27" IPS LED Monitor ‑ QHD / 2x Samsung SSD 850 EVO 500GB / 1x Samsung SSD 860 EVO 1000GB / 5 other regular hd's with up to 10 terabyte capacity each / Windows 10 Pro 64-bit / Gigabyte Z370 AORUS Gaming 5 Motherboard

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34 minutes ago, Rob Ainscough said:

However, both DX12 and Vulkan API can provide paths for software engineers to unload much of the work the CPU has to do and shift it to the GPU. 

By the way Rob....Congrats on your new job here at AVSIM. I don't know if you can answer but is Vulkan and or DX12 where LM is heading in V5 or something similar. NO comment is fine if you can't say. It seems like based on their interviews of late that is what they are hinting at or perhalps we are reading to much into it..


Sam

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Hi Sam,

Thanks and no I can't answer beyond what is already public.  LM is aware of the competition as are the 3rd party content providers ... I believe Adam did commit publicly to PBR which is a change in how things are rendered ... if two render paths are provided (for compatibility sake) then you could call PBR "new".  

Cheers, Rob.

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17 hours ago, VeryBumpy said:

Between the 2, Xplane or P3D, I'd gladly jump ship to either of them if they get a massive performance bump by going fully multicore support.

I don't think there is much headroom for better multicore usage in Prepar3d4 as such. In heavy regions, I see core 0 being used 95-100%, however, cores 2-7 are used around 80 % for texture loading as well.

As some already commented, the future seems to be shifting more load to GPU(s).

Otherwise I agree to Tony. Prepar3d's as well as XP's present engines start to look (and perform) outdated. The most capable engine today seems to be AeroflyFS2 indeed, w.r.t. preformance as well as visuals. Neither Prepar3d nor XP give me the feel of fluidity I see in AeroflyFS2. This doesn't mean my old eyes can really "see" 120 or even 240 fps or even more (that's what I get with the present Vulcan engine around KSFO), but it's just fluid, no jitter, no hesitation, no stutters -  just like in the real world. 

Kind regards, Michael


MSFS, P3D Professional 5, AeroflyFS2, XP11; Beta tester of SimStarter, SPAD.neXt, and FS-FlightControl

Intel i7-6700K 4.0 GHz / Asus MAXIMUS VIII RANGER / Kingston 32 GB DDR4 / Samsung SSD M.2 500 GB + Samsung SSD 1 TB + Intel SSD 500 GB + WD HD 6 TB / EVGA GTX 1080Ti 11 GB / LG 34UM95 3440 x 1440 /  XTOP/Saitek hardware panel / HP Reverb / Win 10/64

 

 

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My opinion

 

1. Better and modern simulator's coding will lead to better hardware utilization for both CPU & GPU. So, yes better coding should lead to do a lot more for what we have.

 

BUT

 

2. Home simulation is years light behind from recreating the real deal ambience, not even the fastest machine on the world as of today can recreate clouds and depict weather as it should be, let alone the entire sim engine, graphics, physics, rendering, ultra high resolution, etc. etc. etc.

So answering to your original question, you WILL NEVER be able to max out all sliders in any reputable simulator because that is the end of development. Development will and should always be ahead of what current hardware can pull.

So by the time you have a modern coding that can use "current simulators maxed out for current hardware", that would be a pretty old simulator tech

 

just my 2 cents

 

 

Edited by mmerelles

Manuel Merelles

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I hate politics personally, but facts are facts, and they need to be mentioned here.

The question of the creation of a fast enough CPU developed by the USA has never been an issue before 2012, and its one of the most important topics for flight simmers, and from there, everybody that uses a PC. Around 2012, the PC speeds reached 5 GHz and then started to go backwards (like MS Flight tried on us) under the "guise" of more cores is "better". Meanwhile China's CPU speeds are steadily getting faster and faster. I'm glad for China, but their increase has not helped us in flight simming at all. We need Intel to get out of this slump.  

Usually, and under normal circumstances, the demand for PC CPU speed has always been met. I speculate that the political atmosphere (foolishness) has played a part as to the stagnation. Reminds me of MS Flight (foolishness). Also, similar to NASA and general economic stagnation of late that seems to have gone away recently. I hope MS, Intel, and NVidia can get going again (like NASA and the stock market is beginning to), because as soon as they do, 10 GHz will come faster then we know.

There are very smart people at Intel, NVidia, and MS, now all they need is wisdom, and to ignore politics.

All one has to do is wonder how did 5 GHz ever come to be; Look at VR!!, then just be determined; there are no limits; limits are imagined or propagated.

Liquid Nitrogen cooling will need to be on the table for home PC's at some point. I'm not saying its easy or cheap, just possible. Eventually it will be common just like 5 GHz and VR is more common and affordable today. Don't listen to or subscribe to the myth that we are limited to 5 GHz, its false. 

Notice from 2012 the PC speeds started to go backwards:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instructions_per_second

Then now in 2018 the USA is at the top again and getting faster, but look at #'s 7,8,9, and 10 getting slower!:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TOP500

If silicon valley and Seattle will ignore politics, we will benefit from the power and speed increases that should grow steadily, regardless of politics. 

Edited by pracines
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This forum thread seems to be taking a direction that I did not expect. I would have thought that more people would have been excited about the future but the over all theme (if that is the correct word) is just kind of more of the same. We live in a time when commercial space flight, although expensive is coming in the next few months.  Serious Companies are making designs and plans to have folks living on the Moon and even Mars in the near future. Medical science is amazing to say the least. We carry computers in our back pocket that have powers that mostly no one just 50 yeas ago could imagine. All this amazing progress and we as a small group seem to have lost a lot of our excitement for the near future of flight simming. Seems to be sort of a downer.


Sam

Prepar3D V5.0/8086K@5.0/EVGA 1080TI SC Black/850W PSU/Windows 10/40" 4K Samsung Monitor@3840x2160/ASP4/ASCA/ORBX/ChasePlane/General Aviation/Vertx DA-62/

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12 minutes ago, pracines said:

If silicon valley and Seattle will ignore politics, we will benefit from the power and speed increases that should grow steadily, regardless of politics. 

Your post is very good and makes a lot of sense. One of the best I have seen lately. Thanks! 


Sam

Prepar3D V5.0/8086K@5.0/EVGA 1080TI SC Black/850W PSU/Windows 10/40" 4K Samsung Monitor@3840x2160/ASP4/ASCA/ORBX/ChasePlane/General Aviation/Vertx DA-62/

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Wait..what?! How are politics stopping CPU GHz advancement?

I assumed the 5GHz limit was a business decision of engineering vs cost issue; physics just getting too small and expensive to work with. A near limit sort of like you can only get something so cold or cause so little vacuum.

 

> we as a small group seem to have lost a lot of our excitement for the near future of flight simming. Seems to be sort of a downer.

Many of us have been waiting for this 'near future' for the last 10 years and tire of it. Usable hardware performance towards our sim just isn't increasing fast enough compared to the software load improvements we're seeing.

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2 hours ago, VeryBumpy said:

I assumed the 5GHz limit was a business decision of engineering vs cost issue; physics just getting too small and expensive to work with. A near limit sort of like you can only get something so cold or cause so little vacuum.

5GHz Limit?.....Probably not but I think the solution is avai. right now today. Maybe not the solution but a good work around. I believe that if someone with the knowledge and interest could in very short time write a interface program that would interface with P3d and others that would make it very easy to completely network and transfer things like WX, ATC, Ai, and maybe even ad on scenery. Now I know that in a somewhat hit and miss as well as crude and ineffecient way it can be done today for the most part. The problem is that many of us are not computer  experts and networking androids. So one approach or request would be like the following:

First things first. Someone needs to write an interface in the style of FSUIPC. It would make it possible that nearly all the things we want like better ATC, wx ect. would all be shifted to a secondary or even a third computer for the heavy lifting and processing. This data would be sent to your primary flight sim computer as requested and needed by the master computer. 

So to put it in a simple way....we have most of the computing power and graphics to do all that we want. We need someone to make the process of multi networked add ons easier to interface. Releases like PDMG and the Q400 have shown the value of operation outside of the Flight sim. I know that things are easier to dream up than to make a reality. I sure do not have the ability to write this program but just maybe if someone reads this thinks ..."Well we could do this" then we are off and running. Lots of computer experts have been doing exactly this for years. We just need someone to bring it to the masses. 


Sam

Prepar3D V5.0/8086K@5.0/EVGA 1080TI SC Black/850W PSU/Windows 10/40" 4K Samsung Monitor@3840x2160/ASP4/ASCA/ORBX/ChasePlane/General Aviation/Vertx DA-62/

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7 minutes ago, shivers9 said:

First things first. Someone needs to write an interface in the style of FSUIPC. It would make it possible that nearly all the things we want like better ATC, wx ect. would all be shifted to a secondary or even a third computer for the heavy lifting and processing.  

But don't we have this already? I use AS2016 which runs networked on my Laptop (SkyForce does as well, if you prefer this). The same goes for PSXSeecontraffic for AI. I don't use a networked ATC program (as I don't use ATC that often anyway) but I think there are networked solutions for ATC available as well.

All these work even without FSUIPC, just via Simconnect.

I even shifted all the Control/Gauges (FIP) display work from the main machine to the laptop using SPAD.neXt. Plus the moving map (FS-FlightControl) runs on it as well.

And yes, I agree, shifting as much as possbile work to a second machine takes quite some load from the main FS machine indeed.

Kind regards, Michael


MSFS, P3D Professional 5, AeroflyFS2, XP11; Beta tester of SimStarter, SPAD.neXt, and FS-FlightControl

Intel i7-6700K 4.0 GHz / Asus MAXIMUS VIII RANGER / Kingston 32 GB DDR4 / Samsung SSD M.2 500 GB + Samsung SSD 1 TB + Intel SSD 500 GB + WD HD 6 TB / EVGA GTX 1080Ti 11 GB / LG 34UM95 3440 x 1440 /  XTOP/Saitek hardware panel / HP Reverb / Win 10/64

 

 

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6 minutes ago, pmb said:

But don't we have this already? 

Yes we really do. This is not meant to be my own brain storm. My real point I guess is that we need to some how bring that to the masses. I am retired and have the time to do this. In fact I think I will. Most others don't have the time to read forums and learn the tricks of computing. After giving it more thought, perhalps what is most needed is a how to and why manual ala Rob's great P3D manual here on AVSIM. My hope is that we can start looking at the "problem" in a different way. We need to be looking at this as our own little cloud operation in our homes. As you and others have found out, this is the best way we currently have to move forward. I have a 3770K overclocked and a 980TI and I read that folks with the very best stuff out there are also having problems like studdering etc. So just buying a new computer is not the complete fix for sure. Maybe a  forum could be set up on just this subject would help to bring some of these solutions together in one spot. 

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Sam

Prepar3D V5.0/8086K@5.0/EVGA 1080TI SC Black/850W PSU/Windows 10/40" 4K Samsung Monitor@3840x2160/ASP4/ASCA/ORBX/ChasePlane/General Aviation/Vertx DA-62/

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