Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[KevinAu 441]

3 hours ago, Nedo68 said:

I think it's gonna recover faster, the economy didnt stopped because it didnt worked well, it just halted a very healthy economy. The collapse 1930 had no good economy at all.

(Of course i could be wrong)

Whatever the economy in the us was before this, it’s gone now. The longer this drags on, the harder it will be to recover from it. And this will drag on, because of the reluctant, anemic, and scattered response from the us government. You can arbitrarily force a relaxation of whatever measures you want next week in order to ‘save’ the economy, but the result will only be overwhelmed hospitals and even more bodies piling in freezer trucks. As long as the disease is unchecked, there will be no economic recovery. People are not going to go on vacation, buy cars, or crowd the malls while they are fearing for their lives or their income. And the two go hand in hand.

The disease has to be stopped first before there can be a recovery. And the economic damage will be greater and recovery will be slower the longer the disease runs unabated. And the disease will run unabated as long as the government refuses to implement strong and meaningful measures. If we stop whatever small measures we have in place before the disease is stopped, it will be doing the same as withdrawing troops from a war before the enemy is defeated.

What we are experiencing now is the payment to this disease. The stock market fall, the job losses, the deaths so far, are the bills coming due for not preparing the country during the 8 weeks we had. If we had spent that time coordinating with and learning from other countries that were already afflicted, acquiring masks for the populace, had stopped all inbound intl travel, developed a working and widespread test and trace program, hashed out a plan to stop the disease as soon as it registered here while continuing the economy, and messaged the populace that this disease is coming no matter what, and once it does, everyone is to be issued and required to wear masks when out of the house, then we could have avoided the economic destruction by allowing everybody to work and travel during the pandemic.

But that was not the case. So here we are. The navigate the disease while keeping the economy from collapsing boat has sailed and only a couple of asian countries managed to get on board that boat. Unless we pay the bill now with an entire country complete stop for several weeks and a mandate for all to wear masks for the next several months, the disease will demand an even greater payment over the next months and years. The scatter shot state by state lockdowns will only allow the disease to continue spreading until the 50th state finally realizes it cannot ignore it. The cdc finally said masks ‘should’ be worn by everyone ‘voluntarily.’ Which completely misses the point of wearing a mask. The point of wearing a mask is to inhibit the spread of the disease, particularly by the asymptomatic, in public. For that strategy to work, everybody must wear them. Another example of the too little, too late, reluctant response from our government. Therefore, it is likely that this disease will run through the us at its own pleasure and pace. We will continue deeper into the recession until the disease has had the time to pass through all areas, kill who it kills, and its not just killing the old and sick, before an economic recovery can begin. By then it will be into the summer, and the volume of unemployed, the income loss, the trillions and trillions of new debt both private and public, and the shuttered businesses that could not survive the months of this hardship, will ensure that the recovery will be lackluster, short of the miracle drug or vaccine. And all in time to be hit again by the fall resurgence of the disease. But that much is still avoidable at this point. Do we choose the actions needed to avoid it or not?

Edited April 4, 2020 by KevinAu

[Biggles2010 343]

There is a popular misconception of world economics that it is built on something real and substantial. That used to be the case , but the 'gold standard' was abandoned years ago because it was considered too inflexible. Today we have paper economies, and some of that paper is very thin.

The wealth of developed countries like the USA is really just 'perceived wealth', based on a huge bubble of often over optimistic speculation. Stock markets are too easily distorted, and in general have been over inflated for 2 or 3 years. The futures and derivatives markets are massive gambling operations, using money that doesn't exist, to buy things that are not real, to influence other events that will produce a big profit.. It's all about belief, but it's like the story of the emperor's clothes. When somebody points out he has no clothes, the bubble is burst. 

Corona is disrupting the world economy and creating massive debt, which we know about, But the fall out is likely to burst a few other bubbles, to a greater extent than Lehman Brothers did, and it could hit people much harder.

[G-RFRY 1,712]

1 hour ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

@G-RFRY, but to whom is the debt being repaid? The IMF I presume. What is the purpose of them holding so much money? To loan it out to countries in debt. It seems like a vicious circle that needs breaking for the good of everyone.

The ECB in Euro zone funded mostly by one country that charges interest that there banks expect to be paid back.

[G-RFRY 1,712]

57 minutes ago, Biggles2010 said:

There is a popular misconception of world economics that it is built on something real and substantial. That used to be the case , but the 'gold standard' was abandoned years ago because it was considered too inflexible. Today we have paper economies, and some of that paper is very thin.

The wealth of developed countries like the USA is really just 'perceived wealth', based on a huge bubble of often over optimistic speculation. Stock markets are too easily distorted, and in general have been over inflated for 2 or 3 years. The futures and derivatives markets are massive gambling operations, using money that doesn't exist, to buy things that are not real, to influence other events that will produce a big profit.. It's all about belief, but it's like the story of the emperor's clothes. When somebody points out he has no clothes, the bubble is burst. 

Corona is disrupting the world economy and creating massive debt, which we know about, But the fall out is likely to burst a few other bubbles, to a greater extent than Lehman Brothers did, and it could hit people much harder.

That`s why gold prices go up in times of crises it`s real currency.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/euro-area-economy-shrinking-10percent-with-worse-still-to-come/ar-BB127N55?li=AA54rU

Edited April 4, 2020 by G-RFRY

[Biggles2010 343]

10 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

That`s why gold prices go up in times of crises it`s real currency.

Yes indeed. It's a pity that a certain chancellor sold off most of the UK gold reserves, at a give away price, about 20 years ago.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Biggles2010

[Ray Proudfoot 8,957]

1 hour ago, G-RFRY said:

The ECB in Euro zone funded mostly by one country that charges interest that there banks expect to be paid back.

Interest should be nulled at times like this. And as the UK is not in the Euro zone then presumably we pay to the IMF in one hand whilst receiving in the other. If that isn't barmy I don't know what is.

[birdguy 3,943]

Those of us who remember WW2 remember food rationing.

Mom would get a book of ration stamps every month and those stamps, along with cash, allowed you to buy rationed items like sugar, eggs, milk, meat, butter, and the like.  If you ran out of stamps for sugar, for instance, you had to wait to the following month to get a new book of stamps.

I remember oleomargarine.  It was a substitute for butter.  It was a block of a white lardlike substance.  It was illegal to sell it colored so there was a small capsule of yellow food coloring in the package and mom would break it and knead it into the lard like substance until it all turned yellow and we could pretend it was butter.

If a birthday was coming up and Mom wanted something special she would save up stamps to buy a roast or something like that.

My family didn't own an automobile back then but my cousin and uncle did.  I remember them complaining about running out of gas and not having enough ration coupons to buy gas for the rest of the month.

I remember going to the movies and before the main feature was a short subject about what life would be like after the war.  A teen-age boy came into the kitchen and ask mom what was for dinner.  Mom said, "Steak."  The boy said, "Oh, not steak again!"  And the audience broke out laughing because steak was maybe a once a month treat.  Even if you had enough stamps to buy one they were a rare commodity at the butcher shop.   Like toilet paper is now.

That lifestyle might be in the offing after things settle down, or perhaps before things settle down.

We are going to tell our grandkids what life was like BV (Before the Virus).  "Yes Johnnie, BV we could go to any store and buy anything we wanted, as much as we wanted, any time we wanted."

We are going to live in a science fiction society come to life.  It will be a culture shock for many.

Noel

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by birdguy

[martin-w 3,235]

4 hours ago, KevinAu said:

 issued and required to wear masks when out of the house, then we could have avoided the economic destruction by allowing everybody to work and travel during the pandemic.

 

 

Nope, don't think so. Wearing masks doesn't allow you to dispense with staying at home and social distancing. Both would still be required. 

[KevinAu 441]

1 minute ago, martin-w said:

 

Nope, don't think so. Wearing masks doesn't allow you to dispense with staying at home and social distancing. Both would still be required. 

Of course you need social distancing and some limited shutdown where hotspots develop. But you wouldn’t need to shut down everything like we do now.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down

[martin-w 3,235]

22 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Those of us who remember WW2 remember food rationing.

Mom would get a book of ration stamps every month and those stamps, along with cash, allowed you to buy rationed items like sugar, eggs, milk, meat, and the like.  If you ran out of stamps for sugar, for instance, you had to wait to the following month to get a new book of stamps.

If a birthday was coming up and Mom wanted something special she would save up stamps to buy a roast or something like that.

My family didn't own an automobile back then but my cousin and uncle did.  I remember them complaining about running out of gas and not having enough ration coupons to buy gas for the rest of the month.

That lifestyle might be in the offing after things settle down.

We are going to tell our grandkids what life was like BV (Before the Virus).  "Yes Johnnie, BV we could go to any store and buy anything we wanted any time we wanted."

We are going to live in a science fiction society come to life.  It will be a culture shock for many.

Noel

 

 

 

 

🙂 Don't think so Noel. The current crisis is  serious for sure, and will undoubtedly impact the economies of many countries. Recession on the cards for sure. But we mustn't get carried away and presume that world war 2 style rationing and permanent queuing for food is on the way. 

The purpose of social distancing is not to reduce the number of people that get the virus, rather to spread those cases of infection over a greater period of time. In order to take the strain of health services. If you don't do that, then health systems get swamped and standards of treatment drop and more people die.

As for queuing for food, that's simply as a result of morons panic buying when there's no reason to panic buy. The panic buyers created the shortages themselves. 

Give it a few months and we will be getting back to normal. No government is going to keep all measures in place and destroy their economy. A devastated economy, after all, results in loss of life and hardship too.  Its a balancing act between reducing the strain on health systems and protecting the economy. 

 

[martin-w 3,235]

13 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

Of course you need social distancing and some limited shutdown where hotspots develop. But you wouldn’t need to shut down everything like we do now.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/26/821688981/how-south-korea-reigned-in-the-outbreak-without-shutting-everything-down

 

Yep, true. But that wasn't what you said, that I responded too. 

You actually said...

"Then we could have avoided the economic destruction by allowing everybody to work and travel during the pandemic.

Allowing everybody to work and travel no. More, but not everyone. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by martin-w

[KevinAu 441]

4 minutes ago, martin-w said:

 

Yep, fair enough,. But that wasn't what was said, that I responded too. 

Thanks for reading all of it though. That was a lot to type on the phone.  I’m glad you put in the time to read it and point out where I glossed or skipped something.

Edited April 4, 2020 by KevinAu

[KevinAu 441]

7 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Its a balancing act between reducing the strain on health systems and protecting the economy. 

 

The balancing is required now because we failed to make sound decisions and take necessary steps at the beginning and even now still.

[KevinAu 441]

9 minutes ago, martin-w said:

 

Yep, true. But that wasn't what you said, that I responded too. 

You actually said...

"Then we could have avoided the economic destruction by allowing everybody to work and travel during the pandemic.

Allowing everybody to work and travel no. More, but not everyone. 

Fair enough. ‘Most everybody’, except for where there is a hotspot that needs to be contained. The point is, with the masks, with the testing and tracing, social distancing, we would not have the disease so bad that we have to resort to widespread shutdowns. We could have kept the economy going. We will look back on this and note the utter idiocy the american government handled this and destroyed the economy and got people killed needlessly. Things like not testing people because they hadn’t been overseas, when that is exactly the kind of testing you need at the beginning to detect where it is gaining a community spread toehold. Or telling people in all capital letters not to wear masks. Think of the trillions it costs, the lives lost, the jobs lost and the lives changed because of the stupidity infecting those people in positions of power and influence.

[G-RFRY 1,712]

A mask will not stop you getting the virus more likely stop you spreading it, washing your hands is as important if not more the virus can be live on some object for a few hours, two very healthy nurses dyed this week form Covid-19, so the virus has no respect for age.