14 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

but maybe too soon to call a downward trend.  What do you think?

The data from places like Italy and China are looking like a downward trend is occurring in new COVID cases, but the US did show an uptick today as you mentioned. Until we see 3 or more consecutive data points trending down I would be reluctant to label it a downturn with any degree of confidence. If sheltering at home and social distancing is working, and we know it does if adhered too, you will begin to see a downturn in new cases, the US isn't there yet, but I expect to see that occurring within the next two weeks. Even a slight decrease in new cases really helps take some pressure of our critical care folks. Stay safe!

Martin 

1 minute ago, MartinRex007 said:

Stay safe!

You too! (and the same to everyone here!)

Will stay watchful, be guardedly optimistic, and watch for those downward trend lines.

Daily reminder.. 

Boris Johnson waited until 422 people died before he imposed lockdown. The number of deaths so far in the UK as of yesterday - 1,789. For comparison, Poland imposed lockdown right after the 1st fatality. The number of deaths so far in Poland - just 16, as of two days.

Maybe one the remoaners might remind me why schengen is so fantastic?? 

 

 

Edited April 1, 20206 yr by fluffyflops

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/anger-is-growing-at-china-over-coronavirus-and-its-apparent-cover-up-attempt/ar-BB11YYqx?li=BBoPRmx

3 hours ago, fluffyflops said:

Daily reminder.. 

Boris Johnson waited until 422 people died before he imposed lockdown. The number of deaths so far in the UK as of yesterday - 1,789. For comparison, Poland imposed lockdown right after the 1st fatality. The number of deaths so far in Poland - just 16, as of two days.

Maybe one the remoaners might remind me why schengen is so fantastic?? 

 

 

So far this thread has been staying clear of local politics. And this is good. I have my personal ideas on how my government has handled the issue.  This is for Twitter.

Edited April 1, 20206 yr by domkle

16 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

The data from places like Italy and China 

Any data coming from China is suspicious and therefore cannot be relied upon  to make predictions and a fortiori strategies.

An interesting series of 4 tweets. The comments are in French but Twitter does not do so bad a job to translate. In a nutshell, he compares the recovery and death rates in 9 countries :

- Germany, Sth Korea, Israel  are on a "virtuous" trend 

- France, Italy, Spain : not so much, lots of deaths

- Great-Britain and Sweden : the epidemic is catastrophically out of control

-China : the curve is too perfect to be true i.e. they lie

Any comment @MartinRex007 ?

 

 

Edited April 1, 20206 yr by domkle

3 hours ago, fluffyflops said:

Daily reminder.. 

Boris Johnson waited until 422 people died before he imposed lockdown. The number of deaths so far in the UK as of yesterday - 1,789. For comparison, Poland imposed lockdown right after the 1st fatality. The number of deaths so far in Poland - just 16, as of two days.

Maybe one the remoaners might remind me why schengen is so fantastic??

Too political!!!

Staying away from the politics, comparisons between countries at different stages can be misleading for a variety of reasons. Each government has had to make judgements about the best time to start a lockdown. There has been a common view that it's an important control factor, but the best time to start is less obvious. The lockdown will probably be needed for longer than some of the public think. The longer the total time, the greater the possibility of public refusal to comply. Starting a few days earlier could have been ideal for several countries, but with increased risk of non compliance later, when the spread is at a much higher level.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Biggles2010 said:

Staying away from the politics, comparisons between countries at different stages can be misleading for a variety of reasons. Each government has had to make judgements about the best time to start a lockdown. There has been a common view that it's an important control factor, but the best time to start is less obvious. The lockdown will probably be needed for longer than some of the public think. The longer the total time, the greater the possibility of public refusal to comply. Starting a few days earlier could have been ideal for several countries, but with increased risk of non compliance later, when the spread is at a much higher level.

 

 

This is not only about the lockdown, I think. The testing makes a lot difference and I have the feeling that Germany does much better than France for this reason : extensive testing (500K tests a week !) and isolation of the contaminated.

Edited April 1, 20206 yr by domkle

15 minutes ago, domkle said:

This is not only about the lockdown, I think. The testing makes a lot difference and I have the feeling that Germany does much better than France for this reason : extensive testing (500K tests a week !) and isolation of the contaminated.

Testing, or rather lack of it, is a very sore point in the UK. Every day for the last two weeks we have been told it's a priority and the authorities are determined to ramp it up. Just like the supply, or lack of it, of protective equipment for health workers.

Just listened to todays government broadcast. Same old story. -  'We are ramping up supply'.  Problem is government departments only work at one speed, and what they are beginning to do now, should have been completed two weeks ago.

@domkle and @Biggles2010 - Agree about the testing.  It continues to be a huge problem in the US - some states are ramping up testing, which predictably leads to a surge in new cases, while others lag behind.  It makes it difficult to make any sense of the case reporting, and we're still pretty much flying blind about how widespread the virus is.

About lockdown - there's another issue related to that, which is its impact on modeling.  For example, the IHME COVID model - the one that was presented at yesterday's White House briefing, and led to the best-case forecast of 100,000 - 240,000 US deaths - assumes a nationwide lockdown to produce the best-case numbers.  But we don't have a nationwide lockdown.  The longer states like Florida wait to go to strict enforcement, the worse those numbers might get.  There's some criticism of IHME on that basis (that it's reporting a range of best cases, not a realistic range).  It's useful for planning, but there's still the risk that we find ourselves in some of the Imperial College ranges.

Lots of potential impact from the things we're not doing.

EDIT: Florida just (finally!) issued a stay-at-home order.

Edited April 1, 20206 yr by Alan_A

I linked to this article in the Bill Gates thread but thought I'd post a link here too - good background on how the virus got started, how it behaves, and what some possible treatment avenues might be.  Figured this is a fact-oriented crowd, so... here's some more facts for you.

1 hour ago, domkle said:

The testing makes a lot difference and I have the feeling that Germany does much better than France for this reason : extensive testing (500K tests a week !) and isolation of the contaminated.

The virus has now also knocked on our door, our company has divided us into two teams that work alternately. Now one of our employees told us that her friend had contact with his grandfather who is in hospital since Sunday with pneumonia and tested positive for covid-19. The grandfather's family must now remain in quarantine, as well as the friend of our staff, but not she, as she does not show any symptoms ??? Although she has a lot of contact with her boyfriend as they live together, she has not been tested.

She had an appointment at the personnel office, well i doubt she will come back to work anytime soon.

and this whole story she told us yesterday (tuesday) at lunch time 😳

So much for germany doing tests!

 

If anyone is interested  there is a time lapse of the construction of the new ICU hospital in an exhibition centre in London in just over a week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-52112652/coronavirus-transforming-london-s-excel-centre-into-nightingale-hospital

 

 

Edited April 1, 20206 yr by SteveFx