Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[Biggles2010 342]

34 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

I was not referring to the UK. in not counting people dying in old peoples homes it may take months for a more accurate count in the world. 

Understood.  I think you are right about about taking months, and it seems the methods used vary between countries. I heard a suggestion that Germany was not counting people who had certain serious illnesses, if they then contracted the virus. I have no idea if this is true, but the stated death rate in Germany is much lower than other comparable countries. Of course, they also have a very good healthcare system and more ventilators than most.

[MartinRex007 390]

30 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

EDIT: Any concerns about underreporting, though?

Because the slight drop in new cases is occurring across a number of countries lends stronger support this trend might be real, if it was only occurring in a few countries I would be more concerned, but I'm also seeing this here in San Diego at the local level. If this downward trend holds up (and that's a big if) we will then see a peak of hospitalizations in about 3-4 weeks because of the lag between getting infected with COVID-19 and it becoming critical in some cases. That is why countries are scrambling to get needed critical services in place. 

Martin

[Alan_A 1,650]

19 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

If this downward trend holds up (and that's a big if) we will then see a peak of hospitalizations in about 3-4 weeks

Thanks for the additional insight.

Let's hope the trend holds.

[goates 576]

I'm not sure what to think of the latest dumb idea to happen here in Canada. There are so many things wrong with this, many political, so will leave that discussion for elsewhere.

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/7kza79/quebec-couple-drove-to-old-crow-yukon-to-escape-coronavirus-angering-locals?utm_source=reddit.com

Thinking it's well past time we restricted provincial and territorial borders across the entire country to essential travel only.

 

Edit: To really put the above incident into perspective, open Google Maps and ask for directions from Montreal to Old Crow...

And a better link:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/quebec-couple-old-crow-yukon-covid-19-1.5514429

Edited March 31, 2020 by goates

[Alan_A 1,650]

@goates - At first I thought this was the story that @CYXR was telling us about on Friday. 

But no - it's another one.

There are no limits on human invention.

Looking on the bright side, at least the first story you linked gave us this quote:

Quote

“Living on the land here is dangerous. It’s not like you wake up in the morning and birds dress you..." he said.

So at least there's that Disney-meets-the-apocalypse image to take away as a souvenir.

Trying to grab happy moments where I can... 😎

 

[Dominique_K 10,133]

2 hours ago, Alan_A said:

There are no limits on human invention

 

 

How do you think we have survived, as a specie, the last 400K years 🙂?

Another perspective, an estimated one million persons left the Greater Paris to their families in the countryside the days after confinement was declared. A botched political communication does that.

I like your Disney-meets-the-apocalypse thing. So true.  The Yukon  story will also remind to all gamers The Long Dark (a great game).

Edited March 31, 2020 by domkle

[G-RFRY 1,708]

2 hours ago, domkle said:

How do you think we have survived, as a specie, the last 400K years 🙂?

Yes we have been on the planet for less than a minute in Earth time and we have about a minute left before we out grow it .

Edited March 31, 2020 by G-RFRY

[HighBypass 2,339]

Back here in the UK, people who have the luxury of a second holiday home away from the big city were told in no uncertain terms DO NOT bugger off to that home to enjoy your social distancing as it could endanger the local community, not to mention overload its infrastructure (healthcare, retail etc.)

[Biggles2010 342]

Unfortunately they are usually the ones who think rules only apply to other people.

As an aside, this topic could set a record. Over 40 pages of varied and interesting discussion. No slanging matches or point scoring, and we've managed, pretty much, to keep politics to the very fringes. And all without any need for intervention by a moderator. Quite an achievement on any forum today.

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Biggles2010

[CYXR 257]

7 hours ago, goates said:

Thinking it's well past time we restricted provincial and territorial borders across the entire country to essential travel only.

 

It's already happening near here for the past 48 hours in the James Bay area along the northern Québec/Ontario provincial border where only local and essential traffic is being allowed through. Major roads are blockaded by police. We don`t have the infrastructure and the services to support an influx of city southerners escaping COVID-19. Inter-provincial/territorial travel restrictions won't suffice. Most of our provinces and territories are larger than most countries in the world. We'll need to protect northern areas within the largest provinces. 

 

 

 

[Dominique_K 10,133]

if you missed it

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/31/824155179/cdc-director-on-models-for-the-months-to-come-this-virus-is-going-to-be-with-us

 

[Alan_A 1,650]

@MartinRex007 - Here's Dr. Fauci's positive (though still cautious) statement about the data points you flagged yesterday.

Maybe a glimmer of hope...

[G-RFRY 1,708]

3 hours ago, domkle said:

if you missed it

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/31/824155179/cdc-director-on-models-for-the-months-to-come-this-virus-is-going-to-be-with-us

 

Political check out what was not done after the 2009 outbreak.

[Alan_A 1,650]

From the UT Dallas epidemiologist I linked to the other day - a US/Italy comparison.  US is tracking Italy's confirmed case numbers before lockdown; in the middle on deaths.  Some commentary on the similarities and differences.

[Alan_A 1,650]

@MartinRex007 - If I'm reading this data correctly, there's been a sharp uptick in deaths and new cases in the US today.  Maybe noise/randomness or reporting artifacts, but maybe too soon to call a downward trend.  What do you think?