Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[MartinRex007 390]

A lot of the media are using this site to get their numbers, my apologies if this has already been posted. The graph on the lower right hand side is the global epidemic curve and when that begins to flatten that will signify that new COVID cases are beginning to subside. Lets hope that happens sooner than later!

Martin

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by MartinRex007

[Biggles2010 343]

6 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

A lot of the media are using this site to get their numbers, my apologies if this has already been posted.

Martin

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

And the other site previously posted in this topic is ;   https://ncov2019.live/

Both appear to update quite frequently, using official data as their source. Neither makes for relaxed reading.

[MartinRex007 390]

The result section from a recent article shows a overall case-fatality rate of 2.3% in this population. Sad to see so many health workers became infected and 5 died.

 

 

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2020 Feb 17;41(2):145-151. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2020.02.003. [Epub ahead of print]

[The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China].

Results: A total of 72 314 patient records-44 672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16 186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10567 (14.6%) clinical diagnosed cases (Hubei only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1 023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case-fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei sometime after December 2019 and by February 11, 2020, 1 386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked in January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1 716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%). 

Edited March 28, 2020 by MartinRex007

[n4gix 4,947]

Dr. John Campbell, a retired UK physician has been making a daily podcast of just the facts and nearly zero politics. I am absolutely flabbergasted at the seeming indifference to Covid-19 in Sweden and South Africa!

 

[G-RFRY 1,712]

The source of the Washington post story MSN. 

Media and politicians cant stop playing politics with peoples lives. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by G-RFRY

[Chock 17,769]

33 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

Media and politicians cant stop playing politics with peoples lives. 

Yup. This is where I do blame the news media in large part. Politicians, always with a view to staying on the gravy train for the next election, are very often concerned with their approval ratings unfortunately, and that means they are often forced into being seen to react to what the media is portraying rather than doing what is best regardless of how that portrays them to the public.

But, it's not an easy job for all that. Take for example the acquisition of ventilators. Someone in Government has to be ahead of the game and decide on the likely threat, and then react ahead of time with appropriate funding decisions, so for example, they might think the worst and decide to order 10,000 new ventilators for their health care system. But then if the threat diminishes, they'll be pulled up for having 'wasted' money on an unnecessary decision to spend loads of money on ventilators which were not needed. This sort of thing is what often leads to intransigence and slow decision making.

We can slag off the politicians as much as we like, but often the decisions are easy to make from the comfort of an armchair, which is of course why it is easier to be in the opposition rather than the driving seat, because you can promise whatever Utopian thing you like without any consequence nor need to implement it and balance the books. But as I say, the media are in no such difficult position, and so their responsibility should be to the truth and nothing more, especially at a time like this when they are well aware that their portrayal of events can and will affect the governmental choices which are not only made, but being seen to be made.

I am willing to bet that Jeremy Corbyn is probably glad he lost that UK election in light of what he'd have to be dealing with right now if he'd won it.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Chock

[Alan_A 1,650]

6 hours ago, G-RFRY said:

And if the Washington post is true 1.4 % of the US population has died from Covid 19

I'd have to check, but I think what they're reporting is the current case fatality rate - 1.4 percent of cases, as officially defined (again, hard to nail down because of testing and reporting issues).

That's not equivalent to 1.4 percent of the total population.  But it's a very high figure on its own - not as bad as reported elsewhere but 14 times worse than the seasonal flu (if I'm interpreting correctly and this is, in fact, a case fatality rate figure).

[Alan_A 1,650]

1 hour ago, Chock said:

Yup. This is where I do blame the news media in large part. Politicians, always with a view to staying on the gravy train for the next election, are very often concerned with their approval ratings unfortunately, and that means they are often forced into being seen to react to what the media is portraying rather than doing what is best regardless of how that portrays them to the public.

But, it's not an easy job for all that. Take for example the acquisition of ventilators. Someone in Government has to be ahead of the game and decide on the likely threat, and then react ahead of time with appropriate funding decisions, so for example, they might think the worst and decide to order 10,000 new ventilators for their health care system. But then if the threat diminishes, they'll be pulled up for having 'wasted' money on an unnecessary decision to spend loads of money on ventilators which were not needed. This sort of thing is what often leads to intransigence and slow decision making.

We can slag off the politicians as much as we like, but often the decisions are easy to make from the comfort of an armchair, which is of course why it is easier to be in the opposition rather than the driving seat, because you can promise whatever Utopian thing you like without any consequence nor need to implement it and balance the books. But as I say, the media are in no such difficult position, and so their responsibility should be to the truth and nothing more, especially at a time like this when they are well aware that their portrayal of events can and will affect the governmental choices which are not only made, but being seen to be made.

I am willing to bet that Jeremy Corbyn is probably glad he lost that UK election in light of what he'd have to be dealing with right now if he'd won it.

Disagree.

We had, depending on your source, between four years' (Bill Gates) and 14 years' (Larry Brilliant) worth of warnings about exactly the thing that's now happening.

And that doesn't count the reams of peer review papers.  And the epidemiological and national security "wargames" simulating a pandemic outbreak of a dangerous airborne contagion.

And there's an established playbook for how to respond.

And nothing in the playbook was done.

So please spare me the tears about the poor, poor political leaders and the terrible choices they're forced to make ("should we rationalize the production and distribution of ventilators, based on everything we've been told for years? Oh, no, let's not!")

And as for media, yes, there's some bad reporting, because there are bad reporters just as there are bad political leaders and bad pilots.

There's also good reporting, because there are good reporters just as there are good political leaders and good pilots.

The role - the essential role - of good reporters is to hold political leaders and organizations to account - on our behalf. Like this: https://www.propublica.org/article/internal-emails-show-how-chaos-at-the-cdc-slowed-the-early-response-to-coronavirus

Reporting like that is going to be required when we come out of this - when the necessary inquiries are held into why there were hundreds of thousands, if not more, of preventable deaths.

Again - known playbook.  Failure to execute it.  A global leadership failure.

Apologies if this triggers or offends.

[Alan_A 1,650]

8 hours ago, Nedo68 said:

i think that means all age groups recover?

It looks as though there've been recoveries in all groups, including the elderly and health-compromised.

But there've also been deaths in young people with no health histories.  Often the decline is extremely sudden.

I don't think there's good information yet about how the virus is behaving in different age groups, or why there are these differences.  It's still anecdotal, and we'll need bigger numbers. Which we'll get, unfortunately.

[n4gix 4,947]

21 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

And there's an established playbook for how to respond.

And nothing in the playbook was done.

<snipped for brevity>

Again - known playbook.  Failure to execute it.  A global leadership failure.

Apologies if this triggers or offends.

Alan, you are absolutely correct! I've been willing to accept many things our "leaders" have done - or not done - over the past many years. But this failure to follow the precise "playbook" is an absolutely unforgivable sin.

[Alan_A 1,650]

1 minute ago, n4gix said:

But this failure to follow the precise "playbook" is an absolutely unforgivable sin.

There are plenty of legitimate reasons to like or dislike various political leaders or parties or policies - but this isn't one of them.  This is a whole different cateogory.

At the same time, it's worth noting that there are leaders of all stripes that are rising to the occasion.  Many of the U.S. governors come to mind.  Here in Maryland, Gov. Hogan is not of my party, and in the before time, I found many reasons to disagree with him on policy - you know, the normal stuff like debating whether his highway expansion plans should make more provision for mass transit (side note - I miss debating things like that).

But he's doing a superb job of responding to the COVID-19 outbreak - among the best out there.

Always happy to give credit where it's due.

[n4gix 4,947]

1 minute ago, Alan_A said:

But there've also been deaths in young people with no health histories.  Often the decline is extremely sudden.

How about the 17 year old who was allowed to die because... no insurance!

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-uninsured-teen-dies-refused-care-mayor-says-2020-3

Quote

A 17-year-old was rushing to a public hospital in Los Angeles County when he went into cardiac arrest.

He was still alive upon arrival, Lancaster, California, Mayor R. Rex Parris said in a statement. But the medical staff were able to keep him alive for only another six hours.

Time was short, and the hospital was not his first stop. He went to an urgent-care center first and complained of respiratory symptoms, his family said, the Los Angeles Times reported. There, according to Parris, he was refused treatment because he didn't have health insurance.

"He didn't have insurance, so they did not treat him," Parris said. The staff of the unknown clinic told him to go to Antelope Valley Hospital's emergency room. "But by the time he got there, it was too late." 

Parris expressed frustration with the urgent-care center that turned the teen away because of his lack of health insurance. "When a kid comes in respiratory distress, stabilize him and call an ambulance; don't ask for insurance," Parris told CNN.

 

[n4gix 4,947]

27 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

Always happy to give credit where it's due.

Don't misunderstand me. I don't want to be "political" but there is one - and only one - administration that I feel merits my "unforgivable sin" stance.

I absolutely do agree that many State Governors are rising to the occasion splendidly! For that I am extremely grateful. I live in far NW Indiana, literally within four miles of the greater Chicagoland area, which is already a hotbed of Covid-19 infections. Our governor (R) issued a state wide 'stay at home" order several weeks ago.

I've been tracking cases in Lake County, Indiana for the past week when our first resident was confirmed infected. Three days ago we had 17 cases, no deaths. As of today we now have 78 confirmed cases. I honestly believe that this was brought across the state line from Illinois since so many Lake Co. residents work in Chicago, just as is the case of Porter Co. just to our east with 9 cases as of noon today. Those counties with 1 or no cases are mostly "corn field country" so they aren't affected as much.

 

 

[Dominique_K 10,149]

2 hours ago, Chock said:

 

But, it's not an easy job for all that.  

 

Politician may be not an easy job but as a boss of mine was saying when I was young in my career the Good Lord does not forbid anybody to be intelligent. Or have common sense.  

People in control  these last twenty-five years had to face, all along, several crisis with a strong biological content. The programs and use of biological WMD by a rogue state, a seemingly incurable HIV and two outbreaks of a pneumo-virus, SRAS, H1N1.  The intensification of a new  forms of suicidal terrorism also was worrying. This is not like the COVID-19 came out of the blue. It didn't. 

We knew there were threats.  A lot of experts and politicians in the defense circles (loosely speaking Defense proper, Health, and Home ministries) recommended specific procedures and strategic reserves. The discussion were on a national level and at NATO level. And the stocks were made. France was ahead of the game to use your words :  1 billion surgical masks et 700 Millions FFP2 in reserve. 

We see on television these days a debate at the National Assembly in Paris, in 2011,  where an opposition Socialist MP vehemently attacks the Conservative minister of Health because of the waste of keeping the stocks.  His party won the election one year later and the government phased out the stocks. The bright idea of these people  was to order some only if needed. What is the first world producer of masks ? China.

Come 2020. We were caught our pants down 117 millions SM, 40 millions pediatric masks and 0 (0 like in nada, nothing, rien du tout) FFP2. 

It is my hope that some politicians and top civil servants will be prosecuted for that. But I do not hold my breath.  

I took the example of France because I know it and that it is widely discussed over the medias these days here. I am sure that we have the same pattern in other NATO countries. Just count the dead.

 

 

 

[Alan_A 1,650]

30 minutes ago, n4gix said:

How about the 17 year old who was allowed to die because... no insurance!

Another example of something that demands a board of inquiry.

The hospital I worked at in New York was a voluntary hospital - meaning it was chartered as a nonprof and required to treat everyone regardless of ability to pay.

That should be the norm but sadly isn't.

One among many of the changes we'll have to consider when this is over.