1 minute ago, HighBypass said:

I wasn't aware Fr.Bill had made any input to this thread yet 

 In any case, none of us are the NTSB investigators tasked with the crash. Wild speculation or reasoned arguments - IM NSHO  these things are what make such threads an interesting topic for debate; some members have detailed knowledge of real world systems, some of us are just enthusiasts. 🍻

That was funny!!  

Me, I just stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night 😉 

 

Edited January 10, 20215 yr by psolk

On 1/10/2021 at 8:11 AM, ahsmatt7 said:

 

Gents. This topic is about an air crash. Keep on topic please.

Edited January 12, 20215 yr by charliearon
edit out off topic rrmark

A very weak motivation to read manuals, study diagrams etc. coupled with a sense of horror and distress when a plane suddenly goes down, for me personally might be why I tend throw ideas around. It's a very weak, "I wonder if maybe this or that could even remotely have been the cause" sort of thing, to help process the event. So I rattle off some scenarios in my mind like Turkish 981, or American 587 or Birgenair.

Accidents and incidents, for example United 232 in Sioux City, always captivated me, helped me to pay attention to some of the technical aspects, and not just what I considered to be the fun stuff. I don't know if it's somewhat macabre. I know any type of speculation right here is obviously of no use to the experts out in the field right now.

Some cases like PIA 8303 didn't take too long to see what occured. Some cases like MH370 will probably forever be a mystery. What happened to this Sriwijaya Air flight will most likely be explained by the experts in due time, and I agree it is best to wait for their explanations. Nonetheless, occasionally going over some past accidents, even if just to refresh one's understanding of what happened, could be of some use, regardless of how small.

I think interest is heightened in the flight sim community because we all fly aircraft in a simulator so have an understanding of how an aircraft works. This crash interested me because of the sudden end to it so soon after take-off.

Accidents are rarely down to one mistake or failure. They are a combination of events. It's those events that will be interesting and not in a macabre way.

One black box has been recovered, which is the FDR. Read out is estimated to take 2 to 5 days.

The KNKT has also said that radar data suggests the aircraft was intact until impact and able to broadcast data. They also believe the engines were running until impact. The aircraft has undergone maintenance checks in November last year with satisfaction and was airworthy.

http://avherald.com/h?article=4e18553c&opt=0

Thanks for that. Strange that they didn’t follow the flight path as instructed. Heading NW when they should be flying NE. Hopefully all will become clear when the FDR and CVR are examined.

Crew failed to acknowledge or respond to two radio transmissions from controllers questioning why the aircraft had shifted from its designated route during its climb away from Jakarta’s Soekarno-Hatta International Airport; reports WSJ :

https://www.wsj.com/articles/indonesia-plane-crash-probes-focus-is-on-lack-of-pilot-response-to-controllers-11610612161

FDR data confirmed that both of the plane’s engines had been operating when the plane hit the water.

https://www.reuters.com/article/indonesia-crash/update-1-indonesia-downloads-data-from-flight-recorder-of-downed-sriwijaya-air-jet-idUSL1N2JQ0BN

I have my own thoughts about this incident but for now I’ll keep them to myself.

If we were all watching a whodunnit on TV it would be normal to hear people shouting "I know the maid did it, I know it was her!" And "Are you crazy? It was obviously the butler" .... etc. 

Of course 100% inappropriate in a situation where real lives and real suffering are involved.

Still, until more information becomes available, I do go over the situation from time to time in my mind, place myself inside the cockpit, thinking what might have happened.

I was driving around Miami, near the Everglades on the afternoon when Valujet 592 went down. But I had no idea, saw and heard nothing until that evening on the news. Whether one is 10 miles or 10,000 miles away from a disaster, if one doesn't see it, it feels both very distant, yet also somehow close as one can't help but imagining oneself being inside there, and how one might have reacted and experienced the events.

Fires can of course wreak havoc very quickly, but I have no particular notion of such being the case here.

I have a tendency to only consider possible relations with a somewhat similar profile, climbing maybe around 10,000 feet after takeoff before going down. But one could also search numerous accidents that occured far later into their flights and perhaps find a connection.

7 hours ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

I have my own thoughts about this incident but for now I’ll keep them to myself.

I suspect that I know what you are thinking, Ray.

9 minutes ago, Christopher Low said:

I suspect that I know what you are thinking, Ray.

They changed course without approval and didn’t respond to ATC. Engines working up to the point of impact. Shouldn’t have to wait much longer for the  CVR which may clear things up.

4 minutes ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

They changed course without approval and didn’t respond to ATC. Engines working up to the point of impact. Shouldn’t have to wait much longer for the  CVR which may clear things up.

While these points start to present a case for illegal actions, the CVR will hopefully shed light on what occurred.

We mustn't forget, 'Aviate, Navigate, Communicate'. If the flight crew were distracted with a problem and target fixated on its resolution, it becomes obvious how things *could* have gotten out of control. Expecially if the 'Aviate part is neglected, things can quickly get out of control.

We'll soon see.

45 minutes ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

They changed course without approval and didn’t respond to ATC. Engines working up to the point of impact. Shouldn’t have to wait much longer for the  CVR which may clear things up.

If they lost comms, or even if they were too busy for comms and needed to take action to keep the aeroplane flying/safe by changing course, or just happening to change course as a result of trying to keep the thing flying, this would be the scenario you'd see on the radar and what the wreckage would show with the fan blades having been at high rpm at impact, so these things alone don't necessarily point to something ominous, although it is of course a potential avenue of investigation. But having said that, the possibility of some kind of deliberate act did strike me as one of the potential explanations upon first hearing the reports of this incident.

@Chock, I did think of that but there are two pilots so surely one is capable of talking to ATC. Think back to the AF Concorde crash at Paris and even in their dire situation they did speak to ATC.

How long does it take to declare an emergency? A few seconds.