Now this is an interesting UFO documentary.

[martin-w 3,235]

9 hours ago, dmwalker said:

Would it be smaller than the 1 in 14,000,000 chance of my winning the $9,000,000 lottery tonight?

 

Impossible to say, we can only say exceedingly small. It's about probability.

I think its a mistake often made by those who claim they were abducted. They often say that experiments were carried out, samples taken etc. But the problem with that is that they describe techniques and equipment we would use now, rather than alien tech that would by definition be way beyond our level of technology.

 

 

[dmwalker 604]

6 hours ago, martin-w said:

alien tech that would by definition be way beyond our level of technology.

That takes me back to your original video on page 1. It seemed a bit odd that the triangular craft would be using what I assume was an old fashioned spotlight and that it kept reorienting itself (the rotational movement, not the lateral movement) and that it completely ignored the human witnesses.

Also, the video makes the assertion that military personnel are more reliable witnesses than the general population. Neil DeGrasse Tyson gave the opinion, without evidence, that that is not the case. An example would be the video of a UFO hovering above the sea and then disappearing. It was reported to have splashed into the sea but you and I could not see any evidence of that.

[birdguy 3,943]

The one question that sticks in my mind is why would an advanced culture want to come here?

I can't help thinking of the economic principle of Pareto Optimality.  That to make one or more people (or cultures) better off then one or more people (or cultures) become worse off.

What do they have to gain and what do we have to lose? 

Do the vast numbers and sizes and difference in shapes of the descriptions of these UFOs mean more than one advanced culture is visiting our planet?  These sighting taken individually might cause us to be suspicious that we are being watched but taken collectively makes me think that is some other kind of non-alien phenomenon.

Noel

[martin-w 3,235]

2 hours ago, dmwalker said:

That takes me back to your original video on page 1. It seemed a bit odd that the triangular craft would be using what I assume was an old fashioned spotlight and that it kept reorienting itself (the rotational movement, not the lateral movement) and that it completely ignored the human witnesses.

 

Well I guess some would argue  that the lights on craft are part of the propulsion system and that old fashioned spotlights are more high tech than we imagine, some kind of scanning device. The Rendelsham forest incident and the other incidents over nuclear missile silo's, claim a beam was shone down at  the missiles, what we would call a laser beam. The claim is often made that its not like one of our beams though, some kind of solid light phenomenon. 

 

2 hours ago, dmwalker said:

Also, the video makes the assertion that military personnel are more reliable witnesses than the general population. Neil DeGrasse Tyson gave the opinion, without evidence, that that is not the case. An example would be the video of a UFO hovering above the sea and then disappearing. It was reported to have splashed into the sea but you and I could not see any evidence of that.

 

I said that in this thread a few pages back. It just seems to disappear, not splash in the ocean at all. Looked like some kind of false thermal image in the system, a glitch. I think fighter pilots are better observers than the general population but not infallible. Ordinary sailors on a ship looking through an infra red camera probably aren't though. Or if they are, they probably wouldn't be familiar with the optical and mechanical characteristics of the system and how it could malfunction.

The gimble video is a prime example, with the pilots seeming to be convinced the object was rotating when it has been pretty definitively shown that it was the de-rotation mechanism. You can demonstrate this yourself by simply smudging the lens on your mobile phone camera. point it at a bright light and rotate it and the flare rotates but not the image.

I used to be a professional photographer and spent three years at college studying photography and have seen this many tomes. David Fravor argued it wasn't the case though and many said he must be right because he's an expert with the system. NO! He's not an expert, he's a pilot that was trained to operate the ATFLIR system but I'm pretty sure he doesn't know much about the internal de-rotation mechanism.

Mick West explained this very well.

 

 

 

[CYXR 257]

2 hours ago, birdguy said:

The one question that sticks in my mind is why would an advanced culture want to come here?

 

A: For the same reason some who think their culture is advanced come here on Avsim's forums; perhaps. But a truely advanced culture would know that the odds that it is not so advanced are greater. 

Edited May 23, 2021 by CYXR

[birdguy 3,943]

19 hours ago, CYXR said:

 But a truely advanced culture would know that the odds that it is not so advanced are greater. 

Surely a truly advanced culture would know they are more advanced than we are just by the nature of their observations.

But the question remains if they are here why are they here and what do they want?

When Europeans landed on the shores of Eastern America I'm sure the Algonquins and Iraquois asked "Why are they here and what do they want?  Likewise when the British landed in India the natives asked, "Why are they here and what do they want?"  Or during the westward expansion of North America the Arapahoe and the Apaches asked "Why are they here and what do they want?"  Or the natives of South America when the Portuguese and Spaniards arrived asked the very same questions.  And when Germany invaded Poland and Belgium and The Netherlands and France, "Why are they here and what do they want?'  And when Japan went into Manchuria and Korea and China...why are they here and what do they want?  And what the Hawaiians asked when the Yankee Traders arrived in Hawaii.

Since we have not had to ask that question of extraterrestrials in the thousands of years UFOs have been seen in the skies (all the way back to Ezekiel and perhaps before) then maybe they are not really here.

Noel

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by birdguy

[martin-w 3,235]

2 hours ago, birdguy said:

And when Germany invaded Poland and Belgium and The Netherlands and France, "Why are they here and what do they want?'  And when Japan went into Manchuria and Korea and China...why are they here and what do they want?

 

I think we were pretty sure what they wanted. And it wasn't good.

 

2 hours ago, birdguy said:

Since we have not had to ask that question of extraterrestrials in the thousands of years UFOs have been seen in the skies (all the way back to Ezekiel and perhaps before) then maybe they are not really here.

 

Odds are they aren't here and have never been here. That is the most likely scenario given the Fermi Paradox which we have spoken about before. And as I mentioned earlier in this thread, what we perceive with our current understanding of physics to be the extreme difficulty of traveling fast enough to get here. As we learn more about the way the universe functions that opinion may change, but for now, we have to regard it as a prospect that, all though not impossible, is probably impractical for a civilisation to achieve. The energy requirements we have spoken about before and all of the other stumbling blocks in the way of relativistic velocities. 

However... that still leaves us requiring an explanation for the very small number of unidentified objects that are seen that we don't seem to have an explanation for. Some sightings don't seem to be explainable as top secret aircraft, optical illusions, swamp gas, or unusual cloud formations. 

I would like to give you my best guess as to what the most likely explanation is for those small number of sighting but I can't. 

I find myself thinking that the most impressive ones, like the physics defying tic tac, are top secret aircraft and of course I have posted the link to the US Navy patents that at first glance might be evidence of that but those patents raise far more questions than they answer and don't explain the sighting that are almost identical going back many decades and even back to the Romans, and as you rightly mention, biblical times. Thus, I find myself back to square one and without a firm opinion regarding an explanation.

More mainstream scientists are paying attention now though, in particular Michio Kaku is taking the phenomenon very seriously. And I know he certainly doesn't rule out alien visitation. 

 

 

[martin-w 3,235]

You might find this interesting.

https://www.wondersandmarvels.com/2012/06/ancient-flying-saucers.html

 

"The parallels to modern UFO sightings are eerie. For example, in 217 BC, numerous witnesses in Rome watched a group of “shiny round shields of polished bronze” moving across the sky. At the same time in the countryside east of Rome many people reported seeing mysterious “forms of men completely dressed in shining white.” Three years later, people in northern Italy saw something like a large white marble “altar in the sky” accompanied by human shapes clothed in brilliant white."

 

"In 154 BC, more “flying shield-like disks” appeared. One night in 104 BC, people of two Italian towns watched as “flaming spears and oblong-shaped shields rushed at each other” in a kind of aerial “battle.” In 100 BC, a very large, round shield-shaped object traveled across the sky. In 91 BC, a huge fiery disk was accompanied by sonic boom-like sound. Later that same day, people in Spoleto watched a UFO’s vertical approach and take-off, as a great “gold-colored ball rolled down from the sky toward earth, then rose up again.” In 74 BC, thousands witnessed a large, flaming object of “molten silver” crash land between two armies on a Roman battlefield in Turkey. The object was shaped like a large storage jar with a pointed bottom, something like a nose-cone. In Rome, 43 BC, “a spectacle of missiles and weapons and shields was seen to rise from the horizon up to the sky, with a loud clashing noise.”

Edited May 24, 2021 by martin-w

[dave2013 1,130]

3 hours ago, martin-w said:

However... that still leaves us requiring an explanation for the very small number of unidentified objects that are seen that we don't seem to have an explanation for. Some sightings don't seem to be explainable as top secret aircraft, optical illusions, swamp gas, or unusual cloud formations. 

I've been interested in UFOs since I was about 12 years old and have read about many sightings throughout history.  The majority of sightings are likely misidentified natural phenomena or man-made craft, but there are some that have yet to be explained.  One must realize that eyewitness testimony is often unreliable.  Moreover, some people are prone to exaggeration.  Then there are the hoaxes.

I, for one, believe that there are many other intelligent beings in the universe, and probably many just here in our own galaxy.  There is a good chance that at least a few of these extraterrestrials have reached a level of technology far beyond ours and have learned how to travel at faster than light speeds.   However, I am open to alternate explanations for UFOs.

The most likely explanation for UFOs other than extraterrestrials is man-made craft, likely military in nature.  I have thought for some time that the Roswell incident, as much as I'd like it to be a crashed ET spaceship, was probably either Project Mogul, or a crash of some experimental aircraft.  The flying disc story, followed by the cover-up weather balloon story, could have all been concocted by the military to try to fool the Russians.  The amazing aluminum foil that returns to its original shape after being crinkled up, which was reported by a few people, was probably an advanced foil coated cellophane type material that few people back then had ever seen.

I also have a theory regarding the Phoenix Lights incident back in the 1990s.  The large triangular craft that many reported silently flying overhead could have been a low-profile stealth dirigible using ultra-silent propulsion such as an ionized airflow system or even super-quiet fans.  This thing could stay aloft almost indefinitely and just hang out over enemy airspace undetected.  Using an advanced display technology, the entire underbelly of the craft could be covered with screens that display the sky above the craft, rendering it invisible to observers on the ground during the day.

It is possible that recent UFOs are merely experimental military aircraft.  If you consider that the F117 stealth fighter is 1960-1970s technology, then one can only imagine what we're capable of producing now. 

I still think that they are advanced extraterrestrials, though.😉

Dave

[birdguy 3,943]

3 hours ago, martin-w said:

 

Odds are they aren't here and have never been here.

We're in agreement here Martin.

Noel

[martin-w 3,235]

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

I for one, believe that there are many other intelligent beings in the universe, and probably many just here in our own galaxy

 

And what's your answer to the Fermi Paradox?

[dave2013 1,130]

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

 

And what's your answer to the Fermi Paradox?

Well, just because they haven't come down and said "hello" does not mean they don't exist.

This galaxy alone is so vast that it defies comprehension.  There could be beings as advanced as we are just 10 light years away and we'd never know they exist, *unless* they decided to embark on a grand project to advertise themselves.   For example, they could build very powerful transmitters and constantly broadcast a hello message.  In turn, if we had many antennas with extremely sensitive receivers constantly scanning the skies in all directions as well as scanning billions of frequencies for some type of modulation, then we would eventually detect their transmissions.  But are we and they doing that?  On a very small scale we are, but not enough to make our chances of detection anywhere near good enough.

There is no paradox, really.  There is no absolute proof one way or the other.  However, we do have many reports of unexplained sightings over many decades that at least hint that advanced aliens may be surveilling us.  Then there's the simple probability, like the Drake equation, that there are many planets that could support life, at least life similar to ours.  There could be creatures whose biology is based on some other elements for all we know.  

Dave

[birdguy 3,943]

22 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

Well, just because they haven't come down and said "hello" does not mean they don't exist.

I believe they exist in this galaxy and many others throughout the universe.  But I find it hard to believe they have been observing us for decades and centuries and millennia according to reports of strange things in the skies and have not come down and said, "Hello." 

On the other hand maybe they have.  Maybe they look just like we do and are walking around among us.  

Noel

Edited May 24, 2021 by birdguy

[dmwalker 604]

19 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

There could be beings as advanced as we are just 10 light years away and we'd never know they exist, *unless* they decided to embark on a grand project to advertise themselves.

All this talk of aliens visiting Earth assumes that they found a way to bypass the limit of the speed of light but, if there is, in fact, no practical way to do that, aliens will never visit us and we will never visit them.

[martin-w 3,235]

9 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Well, just because they haven't come down and said "hello" does not mean they don't exist.

 

That's not exactly what the Fermi Paradox asks although it is part of it. The Fermi Paradox asks, that given the Drake Equation suggests  there would be a multitude of technologically advanced species in our galaxy, where are they? In terms of visiting this planet yes, but also in terms of detectable evidence from astronomical observations. You see, given that the universe is 13.8 billion years old  it would only take two million years to completely colonise the galaxy, even at the velocities human kind can achieve now. And yet we detect nothing, dead silence. No Von Neuman probes, no signals from space, no large scale structures like Dyson Spheres. We detect nothing, zero. 

 

9 hours ago, dave2013 said:

There could be beings as advanced as we are just 10 light years away and we'd never know they exist, *unless* they decided to embark on a grand project to advertise themselves.

 

if they were only 10 lightyears away we would detect their transmissions as they would only take 10 years to get here. Unless they were far less technologically advanced than us and hadn't yet made use of radio waves. Which is of course possible. But as you say, the galaxy is huge... but we detect nothing. 

 

Quote

There is no paradox, really. 

 

There is though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

 

9 hours ago, dave2013 said:

However, we do have many reports of unexplained sightings over many decades that at least hint that advanced aliens may be surveilling us.  Then there's the simple probability, like the Drake equation, that there are many planets that could support life, at least life similar to ours.  There could be creatures whose biology is based on some other elements for all we know.  

 

There has been the so called "wow!" signal, and one or two more unexplained signals,  but the probability is vastly in favour of some naturally occurring astronomical event as an explanation for them rather than aliens. As I said, the entire galaxy should be teaming with civilisations within just two million years, even if only ONE civilisation survived the great filter. So there should be at least a few detectable signals for us to detect by now, some evidence of some kind.

 

9 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Then there's the simple probability, like the Drake equation, that there are many planets that could support life, at least life similar to ours.

 

The Drake Equation goes further than just planets that support life. In fact we can assume that's factual given the number of Earth-like and so called "Super Earth's" we have detected to date. But what the Drake Equation says it that there should be a multitude of technologically advanced species out there. Trouble is, the equation was just something Drake came up with rather speedily for a lecture he was giving and he wanted something interesting to tell the audience. Its based on a multitude of assumption and is no way accurate.

Now I don't want to sound like I wholeheartedly embrace the Fermi Paradox and believe we are alone in the universe, or that there are a minimal number of technologically advanced species so far apart we will never detect them... for the simple reason that there are possible answers to the Fermi Paradox. However, we should consider the Fermi Paradox and attempt to address it if we are to claim there are advanced aliens out there.

 

 

Quote

 

The Fermi paradox, named after Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi, is the apparent contradiction between the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations and various high estimates for their probability (such as some optimistic estimates for the Drake equation).^[1][2]

The following are some of the facts that together serve to highlight the apparent contradiction:

• There are billions of stars in the Milky Way similar to the Sun.^[3][4]
• With high probability, some of these stars have Earth-like planets.^[5]
• Many of these stars, and hence their planets, are much older than the Sun.^[6][7] If the Earth is typical, some may have developed intelligent life long ago.
• Some of these civilizations may have developed interstellar travel, a step humans are investigating now.
• Even at the slow pace of currently envisioned interstellar travel, the Milky Way galaxy could be completely traversed in a few million years.^[8]
• And since many of the stars similar to the Sun are billions of years older, the Earth should have already been visited by extraterrestrial civilizations, or at least their probes.^[9]
• However, there is no convincing evidence that this has happened.^[8]

 

•  

 

The possible answers to the Fermi Paradox:

 

Extraterrestrial life is rare or non-existent

Periodic extinction by natural events

Intelligent alien species haven't developed advanced technologies

It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself

It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy others

Civilizations only broadcast detectable signals for a brief period of time

Alien life may be too alien

Colonization is not the cosmic norm

Alien species may have only settled part of the galaxy

Alien species may not live on planets

Alien species may isolate themselves from the outside world

Lack of resources needed to physically spread throughout the galaxy

It is cheaper to transfer information than explore physically

We haven't listened properly

We haven't listened for long enough

Intelligent life may be too far away

Intelligent life may exist hidden from view

Everyone is listening but no one is transmitting

Communication is dangerous

Earth is deliberately avoided

Earth is deliberately isolated (planetarium hypothesis)

Alien life is already here unacknowledged - UFO's are laine probes or manned craft!

The ones I like the sound of are in bold. I've often considered that we've  only been using radio waves for a very short time and that in the future we may switch to a completely different form of commination and thus don't emit radio waves anymore. In which case, there may be only a narrow window in which an alien civilisation emits radio waves, hence why we don't detect them. Couple that with alien civilisations being rare and it might form part of the explanation for the Fermi Paradox. 

 

Edited May 25, 2021 by martin-w