2 hours ago, Antipodeslonghaul said:

I don't know why, but I'm not impressed by some strange objects zipping back and forth right in front of us.

Perhaps, more accurately, you are not impressed by reports of strange objects. If you saw such objects with your own eyes, you might be impressed.

1 hour ago, Antipodeslonghaul said:

A large daytime sighting over a crowded freeway for example, during a traffic jam, where numerous different people get out of their cars and shoot footage. Maybe with a bit of hysteria thrown in, like when the building in Shenzhen started shaking. Something the average joe can relate to better than isolated cases observed mainly by military personnel. I can't help but wonder why something like that hasn't happened yet.

 

I guess it kind of has.  Reasonably large number of witnesses right over the capital. Not quite as extreme as you suggest though. The Washington DC UFO event. Mass sightings over the capital. 

https://www.history.com/news/ufos-washington-white-house-air-force-coverup

 

Quote

At nearby Andrews Air Force Base, radar operators were getting the same unidentified blips—slow and clustered at first, then racing away at speeds exceeding 7,000 mph. Looking out his tower window, one Andrews controller saw what he described as an “orange ball of fire trailing a tail.” A commercial pilot, cruising over the Virginia and Washington, D.C. area, reported six streaking bright lights, “like falling stars without tails.”

 

When radar operators at National watched the objects buzz past the White House and Capitol building, the UFO jokes stopped. Two F-94 interceptor jets were scrambled, but each time they approached the locations appearing on the radar screens, the mysterious blips would disappear. By dawn of July 20, the objects were gone.

The very next Saturday, the UFOs were back over the nation’s capital. Again, Ruppelt found out through a phone call from a reporter, and immediately called on two Air Force colleagues to check out the situation at National. The same radar blips were back, and radar operators wondered out loud if the dozen or so objects on their screens couldn’t be caused by a temperature inversion, a common phenomenon in D.C.’s hot, muggy summer months.

 

Edited May 25, 20215 yr by martin-w

35 minutes ago, Cruachan said:

Fascinating thread! However, it seems to me that if we are to give any credence to the multitude of apparent sighting events then we need to consider one other possibility: the existence of the Multiverse.

I'm thinking that to travel between multiverses and to arrive at any desired location might be harder to do than even FTL (faster than light) travel.

How about this: Considering how it seems so unlikely that on our planet evolved DNA, able to define almost all forms of life here. But perhaps, on another planet, with conditions unable to support organic lifeforms, it becomes possible for elements to come together to form machines, made up from logic gates and other mechanisms to create non-organic machine life-forms with intelligence. For these machines, time might have no meaning. Whereas, to humans, time is so precious we need FTL travel to explore the Universe. Taking it further, these machines go on to invent organic life and DNA to support its variations. Then they venture out into the Universe to find planets able to support that life. They seed life on these planets and from time to time check on it to see how it is doing. With no regard for how long this will take, since to them time is not an issue.

We are easily fooled by ordinary events. Take for example a column of warm air rising amongst cool air. With light refracting at different amounts between warm and cool air, this can create a kind prism effect. In this way it is possible for example, to see lights in the sky, which are merely car lights going along a road beyond a hill.

45 minutes ago, Cruachan said:

Hi Martin,

Fascinating thread! However, it seems to me that if we are to give any credence to the multitude of apparent sighting events then we need to consider one other possibility: the existence of the Multiverse.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiverse

Yes, I know, I can hear the jeering already, but stop for a moment and let’s ask ourselves whether the existence of a Mutiverse is any less likely than what has been postulated throughout this thread. Theoretical Physics, as is currently understood and accepted, can be regarded as being the main obstacle that often impedes our understanding of what is and what is not possible. Are we so arrogant that we dismiss other possibilities simply because these fly in the face of current knowledge and understanding. Our knowledge is far from being complete and much remains still to be discovered. 

If we can accept the Multiverse concept then it would explain so many things which hitherto have defied conventional logic and understanding. We may never be able to detect or communicate with extra terrestrial civilisations in our galaxy and yet many would have us believe that it may already be happening. How is this possible unless we are rejecting the possibility that these emissaries are using technologies that permit movement between their universe and ours? To me, at least, this seems far more likely (and practicable) than the development of faster than light drives and/or controlled navigation through wormholes. 

Fanciful thinking is something we can all indulge in with no clear objective other than to fulfil otherwise unattainable dreams. Humanity has that gift; sometimes that gift bears fruit but, sadly, more often it does not.

Cheers!

Mike

 

 

Great post Mike and you will get no jeering from me. Science takes the concept of the multiverse very seriously these days, with some scientists seemingly convinced its a fact. Although I would have to say that currently we do believe that if a multiverse exists, it would be causally disconnected from our universe, and thus, we couldn't interact with it and aliens couldn't come here from a different universe. 

But then who knows, we are just scratching the surface, could be that our creatures form another universe may have discovered differently and that our current knowledge is inaccurate. 

If we assume that the small number of unexplained sightings are alien visitations then there are a number of possibilities. Aliens form our universe, time travellers from our future, aliens from another universe, aliens from another dimension, an alternative species of humans that live beneath the ocean that have advanced further than us. And I'm sure some Ive missed. 

11 minutes ago, SteveW said:

Then they venture out into the Universe to find planets able to support that life. They seed life on these planets and from time to time check on it to see how it is doing. With no regard for how long this will take, since to them time is not an issue.

Our conception of God?

Noel

37 minutes ago, dmwalker said:

I should have said the desire to colonise out of necessity would be the norm but, assuming there is no practical way to exceed the speed of light, colonisation would be limited to the home planets. A major driving force would be overpopulation, assuming that, for most if not all intelligent species, the desire to reproduce and the desire to live longer would be the norm. In our case, if our population reaches 15 billion or 20 billion and our planet can't support that population size, colonisation of Mars would become essential as the only acceptable choice. In our solar system, when both Earth and Mars reach their population limits, then we'll be out of luck because there will be nowhere else to go.

 

Yep, good point. But would a species more advanced than us be better in control, of their populations and resources? Would it be far less effort for them to control their populations than expend enormous effort colonising the great void? 

22 minutes ago, SteveW said:

How about this: Considering how it seems so unlikely that on our planet evolved DNA, able to define almost all forms of life here. But perhaps, on another planet, with conditions unable to support organic lifeforms, it becomes possible for elements to come together to form machines, made up from logic gates and other mechanisms to create non-organic machine life-forms with intelligence. For these machines, time might have no meaning. Whereas, to humans, time is so precious we need FTL travel to explore the Universe. Taking it further, these machines go on to invent organic life and DNA to support its variations. Then they venture out into the Universe to find planets able to support that life. They seed life on these planets and from time to time check on it to see how it is doing. With no regard for how long this will take, since to them time is not an issue.

 

 

 

I would guess that there are many mysterious things out there in the cosmos, so I'm reluctant to discount your imaginative concept. 

 

Quote

We are easily fooled by ordinary events. Take for example a column of warm air rising amongst cool air. With light refracting at different amounts between warm and cool air, this can create a kind prism effect. In this way it is possible for example, to see lights in the sky, which are merely car lights going along a road beyond a hill.

 

So true. Which is why 95% plus of UFO sightings are explainable. Its that few percent that are a true mystery.

Two F18's and four people encountering a tic tac shaped object that has no rotors, exhaust, or wings and out manoeuvring an F18 as if it was standing still, and tracked on the Princeton's Spy One radar dropping form 80,000 feet to 20,000 feet in a split second and from 20,000 feet to just above the ocean in 0.7 seconds isn't a car headlight reflecting on a cloud. But you make a good point.

30 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Our conception of God?

Hi Noel,

Could well be the case. If so then you would think that a policy of non-interference should be in place (as the Clergy would have us believe) and yet their mere presence (periodic sightings), unless accidental, suggests otherwise, as evidenced by the contention in this thread...lol

Regards,

Mike

Edited May 25, 20215 yr by Cruachan

5 hours ago, martin-w said:

f they were only 10 lightyears away we would detect their transmissions as they would only take 10 years to get here. Unless they were far less technologically advanced than us and hadn't yet made use of radio waves. Which is of course possible. But as you say, the galaxy is huge... but we detect nothing. 

Not necessarily.  You have to understand that radio transmissions, even powerful ones at millions of watts, follow the inverse square law where the power is inversely proportional to the square of the distance.  At a distance of just a few light years, we would be unable to detect typical radio or TV transmissions from a planet 10 or so light years away even with our most powerful antennas/receivers - the signals would simply be too weak.  We could probably detect extremely powerful directed transmissions, like from radar, if 1)we are using highly directional antennas with extremely sensitive super-cooled receivers, and 2)the antennas would have to be targeting the source of the transmission so we'd need to know exactly where to point them.  The best way to make ourselves known would be to constantly shine powerful lasers in many different directions out into space. These could be detected from many light years away, but we'd have to wait years before they were detected and then years for a response.

Anyway, yes, if a civilization as advanced as ours exists within 100 or so light years then we could probably detect them - if we are looking in the right place.  It is also likely that no civilization as advanced as ours exists within 100 light years.  That still leaves 99% of the galaxy where they could exist and we wouldn't know about it.

Dave

34 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

At a distance of just a few light years, we would be unable to detect typical radio or TV transmissions from a planet 10 or so light years away even with our most powerful antennas/receivers - the signals would simply be too weak.

So, conversely, aliens are not receiving old broadcasts of I Love Lucy?

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Not necessarily.  You have to understand that radio transmissions, even powerful ones at millions of watts, follow the inverse square law

 

Yes that's correct, I'm aware of the inverse square law. But I believe its much greater distance than 10 lightyears before the signal is too badly attenuated. In addition, its not necessarily the content of those signals that's important, its the fact that a transmission is being received that has no known natural explanation. So the content may be badly attenuated but a signal detected nonetheless.

If you have any links to articles that tell us how far attenuated and non attenuated signal can travel that would be interesting.

 

Seth Shostack from SETI seems to think our signals would be detected 116 lightyears away. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-aliens-would-not-know-we-are-here-2016-5

" That means our radio signals could only have traveled up to 116 light-years away — creating a "bubble" around the Earth announcing we're here.

"If there are any aliens inside the bubble, they might know about Homo sapiens,"

I've no idea if Seth is right but he is the senior astronmer for SETI. 

 

This is interesting...

"In contrast, military radar transmissions set up during the Cold War to detect incoming ballistic missiles have the power and frequency characteristics to be detected over hundreds of light-years – and have already broadcast our existence to any aliens within around 60 light-years of the Earth"

Edited May 25, 20215 yr by martin-w

2 hours ago, martin-w said:

That was already covered in the post I made, in regard to answers to the Fermi Paradox...

Yeah, I wouldn't place too much trust in the Fermi Paradox and the Drake Equation. Both of them suffer from a common mistake in probabilistic reasoning about events, in that they guess specific numbers for the likelihood of events, when they are not even close to being in possession of all the facts, nor even a complete understanding of the mechanisms involved in the creation or evolution of life. They are in essence, just slightly informed guesses based on our own limited experience. We don't even know for sure how life started on our own planet. We have no idea about futuristic space travel capabilities. We don't know how big the universe is, nor if there are things such as parallel universes and so on.

This doesn't mean they are incorrect, but it's far from clear whether they are correct and quite likely that they aren't given the amount of guesswork and incomplete knowledge they include. Calling them equations is to credit them with more of a scientific basis than they actually have, but of course if you called them the Drake Guess and the Fermi Speculation, which is really what they are, then they wouldn't have managed to gain the credibility they erroneously lay claim to by choosing more scientific-sounding names.

The Clive the Flatulent Space Badger Theorem doesn't make my notion any more likely for me having given it a fancy name. 🤣

Edited May 25, 20215 yr by Chock

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

and have already broadcast our existence to any aliens within around 60 light-years of the Earth

That’s it...we’re doomed!!

None of this is relevant to us in the present day as we can never establish a real-time connection with our nearest extraterrestrial neighbours. Why should we care or waste time fretting about something which will certainly never happen in our lifetime nor indeed multiple generations in our future? Receiving a coherent signal from out there will serve one purpose and that is to answer the question which has dogged the human race for so long: “Are we alone?” At that point our frustrations will only intensify as we will have to treat it as an academic exercise in futility.

What is certain is there will come a time when humanity will have to reach for the stars in order to survive and for no other reason. When that time comes the very nature of such a journey will necessitate cutting the apron strings forever from our mother planet. 

We can but hope that our salvation will come from as yet undiscovered esoteric enabling technologies. On a brighter, more hopeful, note my belief is that we can expect that to happen....eventually.

Mike

 

Edited May 25, 20215 yr by Cruachan

48 minutes ago, Chock said:

The Clive the Flatulent Space Badger Theorem

Perhaps the most relevant point in the last 15 pages 

2 hours ago, martin-w said:

But would a species more advanced than us be better in control, of their populations and resources?

It's hard to say as our only reference is our human nature where we are divided into competing nations with an uneven distribution of essential resources. Still, I suppose it's possible.

2 hours ago, martin-w said:

Would it be far less effort for them to control their populations than expend enormous effort colonising the great void? 

Not the great void but the little void, like Earth to Mars, which seems to be considered feasible and affordable.