Since the F16 pilot in one of the chase planes reported that the pilot was slumped over and apparently unconscious, the hypothesis is that they suffered from hypoxia, similar the Lear Jet crash of the championship golfer back in 1999.

Well, if there's any sort of "bright spot" in this tragedy, it is that they were presumably all unconscious and didn't have to endure the monstrous impact of the crash...  My sincere condolences to the entire family and the pilot.

I wouldn't dismiss pilot incapacitation due to a medical event yet, one tell tale sign is no report of the windows fogged up like in Payne Stewart's private jet. This incident had a pilot and no co-pilot, a mother and baby daughter and a nanny in the back. Therefore it is possible the pilot had a medical event like a heart attack, no co-pilot as a backup, and the family in the back unaware due to something as simple as the baby fell asleep, so they all got a much needed nap as well.

Of course Hypoxia looks like the obvious one in this situation but don't rule out a single pilot without a co-pilot having a medical event in an aircraft without any mechanical problems.

Edited June 6, 20233 yr by Matthew Kane

15 hours ago, Matthew Kane said:

I wouldn't dismiss pilot incapacitation due to a medical event yet, one tell tale sign is no report of the windows fogged up like in Payne Stewart's private jet.

You've made an excellent point my friend; one that I hadn't even considered. Unfortunately, there is insufficient remains to examine, so it may not be possible to assess the pilot's medical condition(s) as a possible proximate cause of the crash.

2 hours ago, n4gix said:

You've made an excellent point my friend; one that I hadn't even considered. Unfortunately, there is insufficient remains to examine, so it may not be possible to assess the pilot's medical condition(s) as a possible proximate cause of the crash.

Yes it is a good reminder the role of a co-pilot as a vital redundancy role in the aircraft. I feel bad for the F-16 Pilots being put in a helpless situation like that too

15 minutes ago, Matthew Kane said:

I feel bad for the F-16 Pilots being put in a helpless situation like that too

Not to forget the Greek Air Force F-16 pilots who followed the Helios Airways Flight 522 with 115 passengers, including 22 children, and 6 crew members to its eventual crash.

Edited June 6, 20233 yr by dmwalker

23 hours ago, n4gix said:

Since the F16 pilot in one of the chase planes reported that the pilot was slumped over and apparently unconscious, the hypothesis is that they suffered from hypoxia, similar the Lear Jet crash of the championship golfer back in 1999.

Well, if there's any sort of "bright spot" in this tragedy, it is that they were presumably all unconscious and didn't have to endure the monstrous impact of the crash...  My sincere condolences to the entire family and the pilot.

 

I guess you have to go through training and apply for a 'Single Pilot Waiver' to fly this aircraft alone. I wouldn't have a problem with that if you were not carrying passengers, if you are carrying passengers seems dodgy you can fly it without a copilot. Dual Engines Dual Pilots is always a good rule of thumb

https://www.cessnacitationtraining.com/single-pilot-waiver/

Okay, Dan Gryder is most likely correct in his assessment of the probable cause. I had totally missed the interior cockpit icing due to the altitude and loss of pressurization, the lack of same precludes pressure loss as a contributing factor.

What I don't understand are a few things: one, if theory incapacitation theory is correct, then I have great trouble believing that (perfectly OK) passengers in the back would not have gone up to ask the pilot why he had done a 180 back away from the destination and continued on that vector for 50 minutes. I mean, the passengers surely would have had a very fundamental situational awareness even at FL340 - specifically, how long the flight was roughly meant to take, the sense of doing a 180 back away from the destination, etc. So I just can't fathom it. It is not like they backtracked (probably due to some sort of autopilot default mode when the pilot failed to descend) for 10 minutes or even 20 minutes. It was a full 50 minutes - adding 80% to the estimated normal flight time. If it were me on a regular passenger flight, for example, and the pilot did an unannounced 180 and continued for more than 10 minutes without any announcement whatsoever I'd probably ask a flight attendant for an update as to why if there was zero information forthcoming. Of course in normal circumstances a pilot would always tell the passengers we are in a hold or similar.

Secondly, I guess you'd need an accurate simulation for this. I'm struggling a bit with the fuel and crash. Yes, I guess where it crashed is roughly where you'd expect it to run out of fuel. I'm just struggling with the catastrophic end which by ostensibly some miracle just happened to be in a small patch of wilderness surrounded in all directions (and not far away) by populated areas. Seems very "precise" for an uncontrolled crash into terrain. Yes, I had not considered one engine running out of fuel first so I guess that is a valid explanation but even if that had happened, I would have thought that since this began at FL340 (still) the aircraft might naturally have pulled itself out of a crash attitude. As I say, you could easily test for this in a professional simulation though. I guess the one explanation that fits is one engine ran out of fuel and the other kept going for the 90 seconds to 2 minutes it took to collide with terrain.

If in Alt Hold type of mode and you lose thrust I suppose AP will add trim until it loses authority and then "gives up" and disengages followed by stall.

 

scott s.

.

 

This story of pilot incapacitation leads me to a more personal but completely unrelated event for which I am starting a new thread called My Son.

Noel

Still no definite anwer. AOPA is stateting it may of being hypoxia. Same effect as no pressure in cabin.

I doubt we'll ever know what really happened...I'd say pilot incapacitation due to a medical emergency probably is the most likely explanation, given the facts of a single pilot and the pilot's age.  Hard to imagine putting my family on a jet with a single pilot, much less a 69-year-old one.  Something as simple as the pilot falling asleep or becoming violently ill from last night's bad fish dinner suddenly rises from the level of inconvenience to real risk.

That said, the whole "no frost on the windows" theory is not conclusive--it assumes that the only depressurization scenario must involve a complete failure of the air conditioning and pressurization system.  There are other failure possibilities where a loss of pressurization could occur while heated air would still be flowing into the cabin, e.g. an outflow valve stuck open or blown out, partial window seal failure, interior pressure bulkhead failure etc.

As to why the pax didn't go up front and take notice, it's entirely possible they were all asleep themselves.