With all due respect, those numbers don't tell the full story. How many of them are "active" and how many are just spam bot registry's? I have a VERY VERY small forum for KCFS, yet I can get 10-20 new users a day, ALL OF THEM SPAM BOTS. Very frustrating. I'm not saying your members are inactive or spam bots, but that its impossible to sift them out of the numbers.

 

Okay, fair enough... All of our readers, other than those that are registered, are Spam Bots, trying to knock the doors down. Explain the 60-70 new user registration a day. We have a very powerful spam rejection system in place and it blocks hundreds of spam "bots" a week. All of those registrations are real, and if an occasional spammer does get through, they don't last long. Even allowing for that, explain the 200 - 300+ registered users on-line here throughout the day?

 

Yes, there are good concentrations of FSX users, but out of the millions of copy's sold, there are only a scant few that we could actively market too, and there is no single focal point. With in game sales, it would solve that problem. Also one of the biggest problems with FSX is 99% of the buyers didn't even know about 3rd party or that the game could be greatly expanded or enhanced. Again, in game sales solves this problem also.

 

Where do you get these "facts" from? What millions of copies of which edition? How do you know that 99% of all buyers don't know about 3rd party add-ons? Does that mean that you dismiss the 365,705 registered users of the AVSIM Library as bots too? A "scant few"?

 

It never ceases to amaze me... Commercial producers (not all, but some) bemoan the "fact" that our hobby is dead. Just as recently as yesterday I received an email from a very prominent member of our commercial community informing me that the compliment from a user I had sent him was "meaningless because the hobby is dead".

 

Yet, here sits a vibrantly busy and enthusiastic gathering of enthusiasts hungering for advancements in all of their respective favorite sims. The part that amazes me? Those commercial vendors, including yourself apparently, are willing to so quickly dismiss this community and others like it where tens of thousands of users do congregate and do share, and do want to make the hobby succeed and grow. They are willing to buy your product, if it does as advertised, and they are willing to be fans, if you treat them right.

 

I think this type of post from a commercial user does more harm that good. In one thread, you have completely dismissed and devalued the entire community here and elsewhere.

 

If what you are doing is parroting something you heard from an MS connection, then please say so. That position, by MS, to embed purchasing in-game, would not surprise me in the least. But, like their DLC concept, that won't be the panacea that you seem to believe it will be either.

I really didnt want to start some fight with you Tom. I didnt say all your users are spam bots!!! All I said is we dont know the number of spam bots out of that base number. Im also not going to debate were I get my numbers from, but lets just say I have had access to information over the years of work that most people dont.

 

If you want, feel free to take this up in PM. Wouldn't want to dirty up the forums with back-n-forth fighting ;)

I really didnt want to start some fight with you Tom. I didnt say all your users are spam bots!!! All I said is we dont know the number of spam bots out of that base number. Im also not going to debate were I get my numbers from, but lets just say I have had access to information over the years of work that most people dont.

 

If you want, feel free to take this up in PM. Wouldn't want to dirty up the forums with back-n-forth fighting ;)

 

I am not fighting Kevin. I am tired of people spewing out what appear to be "facts" without substantiation. Hiding behind the cloak of numbers gained while in the industry or from your friends at XYZ, doesn't cut it. There are too many people on these forums and elsewhere that are willing to take your "facts" as gospel. Whithout substantiation, they have no more meaning than any other "facts" that are put forward here. If you are going to throw out numbers as standalone data, be prepared to add credence to them.

 

Making statements like "Also one of the biggest problems with FSX is 99% of the buyers didn't even know about 3rd party or that the game could be greatly expanded or enhanced." do no more than to obsfucate the matter and if left to stand alone would lead one to believe that the only solution is indeed in-game sales. So, if the "fact" is wrong, so is the conclusion.

 

I understand the situation you feel the hobby is in from your perspective as a commercial member. I participated in long meetings in Holland in 09 after the closer of ACES with every major commercial provider represented with the sole intent of trying to figure out the future of our hobby and your business. Believe me, I know how you feel. However, I think you are doing yourself and the community a disservice with this dismissive view of users here and elsewhere and the communities they represent.

However, I think you are doing yourself and the community a disservice with this dismissive view of users here and elsewhere and the communities they represent.

 

I dont understand how im being dismissive. Im simply stating that in-game marketing and sales is a great thing for 3rd party's, if they are allowed in. Hows that dismissive?

I dont understand how im being dismissive. Im simply stating that in-game marketing and sales is a great thing for 3rd party's, if they are allowed in. Hows that dismissive?

 

Come on Kevin, don't be disingenious. It is dismissive because of the way you came to that conclusion. Go back and read your original post and my responses.

Come on Kevin, don't be disingenious. It is dismissive because of the way you came to that conclusion. Go back and read your original post and my responses.

 

Your liking the "dis" words today Tom, but I still dont agree with you. I love Avsim and I love the forums, but I dont think all things flight simming revolves around Avsim. Yes, Avsim is one of the biggest concentration of simmers out there, but it only can account for a fraction of the millions of people who purchased FSX or any other sim. An in-game sales system will reach 100% of the people who purchased or downloaded a game. I still dont see how thats "dis"ingenious or "dis"missive. Its simply a fact.

 

I know this fact can threaten web masters such as yourself, as it can pull marketing and visitors, but its clear Flight has no real desire to create a community and has left that up to people like yourself.

Your liking the "dis" words today Tom, but I still dont agree with you. I love Avsim and I love the forums, but I dont think all things flight simming revolves around Avsim. Yes, Avsim is one of the biggest concentration of simmers out there, but it only can account for a fraction of the millions of people who purchased FSX or any other sim. An in-game sales system will reach 100% of the people who purchased or downloaded a game. I still dont see how thats "dis"ingenious or "dis"missive. Its simply a fact.

 

I know this fact can threaten web masters such as yourself, as it can pull marketing and visitors, but its clear Flight has no real desire to create a community and has left that up to people like yourself.

 

 

Kevin, this is not about AVSIM, or FLIGHTSIM, or SIMFLIGHT or (fill in the blanks).. It is about the collective users who populate them that you don't want to seem to recognize. As for your final statement, I can't speak for Nels or Miguel or anyone else who runs a website in this community, but I can say without equivocation that being threatened by MS, their strategy with FLIGHT or their attempt to recreate the communities present online for over 15 years, is most certainly not one, and I do not loose a wink of sleep as a result.

 

If community is defined as a 15 or 16 year old who spends a total of maybe 3 or 4 hours flying a free download and then abandons it, then MS may have a chance to grow them into something else, meaning more sales. But, if you think that having (my best guess, and in truth it is probably very high) a 20 or 30% "capture rate" is going to mean a growth in your business (assuming MS allows 3rd party participation at some point), then good luck.

 

Bottom line Kevin, in my humble opinion... There is not a single solution such as in-game sales. This is a whole community challenge and one that MS would better be served by understanding, nuturing and asking for its participation. But hey, MS' track record in the genre is to always go it alone until they figure out that they might need some help, and then suddenly, they have religion. Will this repeat itself? I doubt it. The dynamics, players, not to mention the competition, has changed. The "go it alone", "we know best" attitude, hasn't. And so, I have no doubt that your assumptions will bear fruit, and we'll see in-game purchases.

Hay Tom. You should call Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon and tell them that there app stores in there phones and tablets is not a good solution.

 

Its basically the same thing. You buy an Apple, you have iTunes for all your apps. You buy an Android, you have the Google Play store. You guy into Flight, you have the Live system or Steam. MS will have its own app store in Windows 8, ans Steam is its own app store. Its whats happening, and it works very well. Even Apple has in-app purchasing for dev's, and that system also works very well.

 

Simply put, the key to marketing is getting your product in front of people who are interested. With in-game purchasing, thats an easy thing to do. But again, thats on the assumption that MS lets 3rd party's into Flight, or even if Flight survives long enough. Im sure Mathias is also looking into an in-game store for the next XP, as it just makes sense. The problem is pissing off every store that sells 3rd party add-on's since you cut them off at the knee, and also pissing off community forums that live off of ad revenue from those stores.

Simply put, the key to marketing is getting your product in front of people who are interested. With in-game purchasing, thats an easy thing to do. But again, thats on the assumption that MS lets 3rd party's into Flight, or even if Flight survives long enough. Im sure Mathias is also looking into an in-game store for the next XP, as it just makes sense. The problem is pissing off every store that sells 3rd party add-on's since you cut them off at the knee, and also pissing off community forums that live off of ad revenue from those stores.

 

And we come back full circle. "Getting your product in front of people who are interested." And once again, I will say that is staring you in the face, even though you dismiss it. Ipods, Ipads, Google Android, etc. etc. are not "in game" purchasing. They are devices, just like a PC, that you download software to; only in these instances, they are stores owned and operated by the gate keepers. In-game purchases are a whole different kettle of fish and a totally different dynamic.

 

Let's agree to disagree. You know I think you make a fantastic product, and you deserve all the support from the community you can obtain. I think you are not looking at this with a wider view, but that is your perogative and of course, I respect your opinion, even though I disagree with it.

"Marketplace Opacity" is a very well-documented and understood paradigm for book authors. Several years ago I posited a similar type of opacity of the market exists within the domain of both freeware and payware developers/distributors*.

 

Not so oddly, the same phenomenon holds true within the sub-domains of gauge development, 3d modeling, texturing, and scenery design. Every day without exception over the past two decades I've read posts where some individual in one of these areas excitedly reports having (re)invented the wheel, so to speak. It's really quite depressing...

 

*

Every once in awhile, someone will post something like the following as part of their opinion about "Marketing 101..."

In general, most MSFS add-on developers don't understand what a "volume" based model looks like. Just take a look at all the commercials on TV for the $19.95 and below price points.

 

Such folks are overlooking what should be blindingly obvious. The root problem faced by anyone with a "widget" to sell is consumer awareness, i.e., advertising!

 

Addon developers are faced with the same core problem as book authors; the opacity of the marketplace. There is simply no way that any developer can reach more than a tiny fraction of those who use any version of flightsimulator, much less a specific version of a flightsimulator such as FS9 and FSX.

 

It's a very simple concept, all things considered:

 

No product will ever sell at any price if the potential market does not know that it exists!

 

How does any book make the "Best Sellers list?" Those who's publishers have invested the huge number of dollars to advertise! Believe me, there are far better books available than those that make such lists, but they languish in relative obscurity because of marketplace opacity. They are simply never "discovered" by potential readers except by word-of-mouth.

 

As a case in point, I've been a huge fan of Science Fiction ever since I first read "Space Cadet" by Robert Heinlien some fifty years ago, and had invested thousands of dollars ever since. I recently donated my entire hard cover collection of ~4,000 books to my local library, among which was a complete first-edition collection of Heinlien, Asimov and Clarke. I remain a very active member on many Sci-Fi websites, forums, newgroups and so forth...

 

Yet even so, it was only by complete accident that I learned about several "new authors" that've totally blown me away with their prodigious and awesome novels. Eric Flint (one of my "new authors") turned out to be a close neighbor, living as he does less than six blocks from my house! Incidentally, it was from Eric that I first learned about the "opacity" of the bookmarket...

 

http://baens-univers...rticles/salvos7

 

What do I mean by an "opaque" market? The concept is simple, and is closely related to the concept of information asymmetries as used by some economists. A lot of economic theory is based upon the presumption—the preposterous and absurd presumption—that the market is completely visible to consumers. To put it another way, applied to this topic, when Customer Joe or Jane sets out to buy a book, they know already all the books available on the subject they are interested in. Their choice between Books A, B and C therefore comes down to an informed choice based partly on price, partly on their preference in format (electronic or paper; and, if paper, hardcover or paperback), and partly on their own assessment of the relative talents and skills of the various authors who have produced books on the subject.

 

It's enough to state the proposition for anyone to see how ridiculous it is. In the real world, the situation is almost diametrically the opposite.

 

Now I spoke above about the opacity of the fs marketplace. Let's examine this concept in a bit more detail...

 

The last time I bothered to check (about a year ago) there were slightly more than six thousand unique websites dedicated to flight simulation, most of which have forums specific to MSFS in general, and FS9 and/or FSX in particular. While it is certainly true that the vast majority of them do not enjoy the high number of members as the "Majors," it is also true that, by and large, there is not a great deal of "cross-pollination" between these hugely disparate groups.

 

It is also a truth that many of these websites are topical, regional, national, and/or language specific as well.

 

Every single day I invest (and I mean that literally) hours of my time to visit twenty FS websites and their forums. Even so, it is simply not possible for me or any addon developer to "get the word out" to more than a miniscule percentage of the potential marketplace, irrespective of the number of "Press Releases," "Announcements," and just plain casual conversations via forums and other internet newsgroups.

 

It is also a fact that the vast majority of folks who use any version of any flightsimulator simply do not know that there are any sort of addons available at all, whether it be freeware or payware.

 

As I said, this marketplace opacity issue should be self-evident. For example, given that we know for a fact that FSX sold over one million copies in the United States during the fiscal year 2008, where are they? How many millions of copies of FS9 have been sold since its release? Even if we reduce those numbers by one fourth, that still leaves a staggering number of potential sim users and addon customers, so...

 

...where are they?

 

...how does anyone reach them?

 

They sure as dickens aren't registered - much less active - here at AVSIM or any of the other "Major" websites. Despite the rather large number of registered members, that doesn't translate into actual participation, or mean that the majority are actually paying attention!

 

That is precisely why I grind my teeth in complete frustration whenever anyone announces that they've "formed another FS website" and "set up new forums!" We are our own worst enemy, since all that happens is a further dillution and fragmentation of the community... :Doh:

 

Now, if I (or any other developer) had a couple of million dollars to risk, we could hire "Vince" of "Sham-Wow" fame to pitch our products on national TV...

 

...then we just might be able to turn a profit hawking our stuff at only $19.95...!

Very well said N4. If 3rd party venders had access to even 1% of the flight simming customers, we could sell our stuff for a LOT less. Sadly, small 3rd party's like us need to scrape by with just a few hundred sales. Even big 3rd party's like PMDG, OrbX, and REX only count in the 10's of thousands of sales. Considering over 6 million units of MSFS 2004-FSX were sold, thats a paltry fraction of the possible market. Again, the #1 difficulty is getting your product seen by potential customers, without spending ourselves into bankruptcy doing it. I made a total of 60$ last month off of sales. How much marketing can that afford?

Very well said N4. If 3rd party venders had access to even 1% of the flight simming customers, we could sell our stuff for a LOT less. Sadly, small 3rd party's like us need to scrape by with just a few hundred sales. Even big 3rd party's like PMDG, OrbX, and REX only count in the 10's of thousands of sales. Considering over 6 million units of MSFS 2004-FSX were sold, thats a paltry fraction of the possible market. Again, the #1 difficulty is getting your product seen by potential customers, without spending ourselves into bankruptcy doing it. I made a total of 60$ last month off of sales. How much marketing can that afford?

 

When I was really active in simming years ago, I also taught adults in technical subjects, and had a different class every week of around 10-12 people. I actually had a copy of FS on my computer in class, and used to display it on a very high end video projector with around a 15 foot wide screen. Needless to say, MSFS was always discussed for a few minutes, and almost always, I would have someone in the class who either owned MSFS at one time or had a family member that did. It was very seldom that they continued to use the program, after possibly a couple of weeks of playing around with it. The point that I am trying to make is that they may sell millions of copies of this program, but I think the number of people that actually become active, long time users, is a very small percentage, and probably the majority of them are active on forums like this.

When I was really active in simming years ago, I also taught adults in technical subjects, and had a different class every week of around 10-12 people. I actually had a copy of FS on my computer in class, and used to display it on a very high end video projector with around a 15 foot wide screen. Needless to say, MSFS was always discussed for a few minutes, and almost always, I would have someone in the class who either owned MSFS at one time or had a family member that did. It was very seldom that they continued to use the program, after possibly a couple of weeks of playing around with it. The point that I am trying to make is that they may sell millions of copies of this program, but I think the number of people that actually become active, long time users, is a very small percentage, and probably the majority of them are active on forums like this.

 

That is a very good point. Flight simming has a very low retention rate just due to its complexity, and for lack of a better word, lack of "excitement". Flight is trying to address those two issues.

I found the interview very interesting. The description of the size of the trees was very enlightening.

 

Regards;

 

Fritz

Very well said N4. If 3rd party venders had access to even 1% of the flight simming customers, we could sell our stuff for a LOT less. Sadly, small 3rd party's like us need to scrape by with just a few hundred sales. Even big 3rd party's like PMDG, OrbX, and REX only count in the 10's of thousands of sales. Considering over 6 million units of MSFS 2004-FSX were sold, thats a paltry fraction of the possible market. Again, the #1 difficulty is getting your product seen by potential customers, without spending ourselves into bankruptcy doing it. I made a total of 60$ last month off of sales. How much marketing can that afford?

I highly believe that 3rd party vendors do have access to at least 10 to 40% of people who

actively still today use FS9 / FSX, we should remember that majority of people who bought these simulators just used them for some weeks or months before abandoning it, and amount of actual potential customers out there is much smaller than amount of copies sold. Also I believe that just making Flight easier to get into and use is not going to make dramatically more long time users, äfter a while people will still get bored and move on to some other game for some time if not permanently.

 

Myself I have made around 200 dollars total during two last months, and I am happy with it as to me developing addons is just part of my FS hobby and so far I have spent only around 50 dollars to marketing.

 

Btw wrote this from airplane using free wifi on norwegian air, travelling on DY5881 from Chania to Helsinki.