ILS being out shouldn't play any part in an accident like this. Weather was CAVOK. However I'm aware that certain airlines in the region Asiana is based in seem to discourage manual or visual flight, so lack of flying skills could well have been a contributing factor in this accident. Hopefully if it is these airlines can finally put an end to their absurd practices of discouraging pilots from maintaining their basic flying skills.

 

With regard to how they know there was no mechanical issue, it's probable that the Commander has given his statement to the investigators at this stage, which is where they could have gotten their info from.

 

Regards,

Ró.

Do not reach into the overhead lockers.

https://twitter.com/joshmendelsohn/status/353767664054849536/photo/1

PS Ró,

Didn't notice you are in the IAAIU. before..

Very interesting subject.

I've read The Human Factors quite a few times

Here:

http://avherald.com/h?article=464ef64f&opt=0

PS Ró,

Didn't notice you are in the IAAIU. before..

Very interesting subject.

I've read The Human Factors quite a few times

 

Yeh, about 2 months now. Used to be TRI/TRE on the 320, but had to give that up as I'm now solely on the A330, so I was offered this to keep me in the higher pay bracket involved in working with the Training and Standards Department. It's the internal company one mind, but 2 years or so at it and I should be able to join the IAA one all things going well. 

 

Human factors is indeed an interesting subject and may well be the cause of the accident. From what I'm reading around the place of the culture in Korean (*country) airlines, there seems to be a distinct lack of CRM and a policy that is intent on using the AP as much as possible, which are all possible contributors to an accident like this.

Regards,

Ró.

How long is it before the pilots actually get to tell what happened?

How long is it before the pilots actually get to tell what happened?

Air Accident Investigators will try and get a statement ASAP. So as long as they're not injured, it could be within 45 mins after the accident. A second statement will then be taken the next day, followed by another one week later.

 

Regards,

Ró.

How long does it normally take for the public (news outlets) to find out what the pilots said?

Yeh, about 2 months now. Used to be TRI/TRE on the 320, but had to give that up as I'm now solely on the A330, so I was offered this to keep me in the higher pay bracket involved in working with the Training and Standards Department. It's the internal company one mind, but 2 years or so at it and I should be able to join the IAA one all things going well. 

 

Human factors is indeed an interesting subject and may well be the cause of the accident. From what I'm reading around the place of the culture in Korean (*country) airlines, there seems to be a distinct lack of CRM and a policy that is intent on using the AP as much as possible, which are all possible contributors to an accident like this.

Regards,

Ró.

Yes,I read that too.some years ago,there was incidents with major Asian airlines in the past,something to do with a lot of ex-military pilots continued their military career in flying into civilian aircraft with fatal consequences. 

I remember reading a book written by Malcolm Gladwell called Outliers that examined how people succeed in different areas of life, but one of the topics he discussed was the culture in Korea, and how the respect for the Commander would result in the FO not challenging him, even when he was doing something obviously wrong. This contrubuted to a number or accidents in KAL, namely the crash in Guam and the Cargo Crash in Stanstead of the 747, as well as a number of other incidents. This may well have been a major contributing factor to this accident, but that's only speculation at this stage.

 

Regards,

Ró.

after reviewing what info I could get my hands on, including ATC chatter, photos of crash scene, flightaware and flightradar data, the FSX group that I am with and myself have agreed this is looking like pilot error. It seems that he stalled the aircraft while coming in short, final speeds 10 seconds before crash were reported at 88 KIAS where the pilot climbed from 100 feet MSL to 200 feet.

 

 

My personal specualtion with the data I have at hand is that the pilot disengaged the AP systems and left his air brakes on and bled too much speed on short final, this would account for him coming in short by pushing the nose down without increasing power, this is shown by the flight data recorded by radar where his 1400 - 400 ft AGL decent was steeper than it should have been and slower than it should have been for a 777-200.

 

Im no NTSB professional but I cross-referenced all data I could get on this and I checked it with others, 2 of whom are retired air-force pilots one of which flew the C-5 Galaxy, and they concur with my findings.

 

 

Im no NTSB professional

 

I completely agree with that part of your post.. 88kts at 200ft? Lets wait for the actual FDR & CVR data

FLEX1978, on 07 Jul 2013 - 06:54 AM, said:

 

I completely agree with that part of your post.. 88kts at 200ft? Lets wait for the actual FDR & CVR data

As stated above your quoted post, I have limited data available to make my conclusions and my conclusions are not definitive, however given the info that is available to the public I don't think my theory is far fetched for plausibility.......

 

this link here is where I am getting my data as I do not have access to the data on the FDR or CVR.....

 

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAR214/history/20130706/0730Z/RKSI/KSFO/tracklog

 

and it was my mistake it was 85 KIAS @ 200FT RADAR registered.

after reviewing what info I could get my hands on, including ATC chatter, photos of crash scene, flightaware and flightradar data, the FSX group that I am with and myself have agreed this is looking like pilot error. It seems that he stalled the aircraft while coming in short, final speeds 10 seconds before crash were reported at 88 KIAS where the pilot climbed from 100 feet MSL to 200 feet.

 

 

My personal specualtion with the data I have at hand is that the pilot disengaged the AP systems and left his air brakes on and bled too much speed on short final, this would account for him coming in short by pushing the nose down without increasing power, this is shown by the flight data recorded by radar where his 1400 - 400 ft AGL decent was steeper than it should have been and slower than it should have been for a 777-200.

 

Im no NTSB professional but I cross-referenced all data I could get on this and I checked it with others, 2 of whom are retired air-force pilots one of which flew the C-5 Galaxy, and they concur with my findings.

 

it is amazing how you and your team figured out the cause of this crash and the details how it happened. with all respect but this speculation is very exaggerated. there could be a million variables that led to the accident. it could be either pilot error or something went wrong with the airplane and at this moment there are no reports to have an idea of what might have happened.

 

the flightaware data are interesting, at 300ft speed is 123kts, at 100 speed is 109kts. also the rate of descent on final is greater than usual. at first one might think there is some trouble with the engines. but then again we don't know how accurate are these data, whats the margin of error etc. the coordinates where the speed is supposed to be 85kts are wrong, actually the plane came to a stop much earlier on the ground. see pic below

 

 

until some official reports from the investigation come out, or reports from eyewitnesses (especially the United crew who were holding short of 28L) it is not appropriate to speculate an jump into conclusions.

What about the B777 alpha floor protection? It's way too early to blame the pilots. They were blamed in the B777 Heathrow accident, too, which was a tad ... premature ...

777 doesn't have alpha floor, just a basic 'wake up' mode for the Auto Throttle.  Guys, I wouldn't be too trusting of the data you see on flightaware, not to mention you are reading ground speed not airspeed