5 Years From Now!

[b737aviator 0]

Just speculating on the future. Where do you think entertainment simmers we'll be in 5 years?

Economically I don't think there is room for 3 flight sims in the main stream. At Least one will fall, perhaps two?

 

Possibilities....

 

1) FSX falls, X-Plane falls, and P3D takes over with a entertainment license.

2) FSX falls, P3D falls and X-Plane takes over

3) FSX falls, P3D is the serious commercial training Sim, and X-Plane becomes the new mainstream entertainment Sim.

4) Some other Sim in the works we don't know about yet takes over.

5) Any other scenarios? 

 

I think in all cases, FSX will be dying a slow death, and that's a good thing!

 

What do you think?

 

1

[TheDanger 182]

Kyle,

 

The Pro License includes using P3D as a simulator. In fact, one or two guys from LM have been on this forum and stated that anyone can use it for that purpose. What is the problem?

 

Exactly. Enough with the EULA policing please

[sascha 314]

 

 

I think in all cases, FSX will be dying a slow death, and that's a good thing!

 

Yoda says: Never a good day to die it is! When as old as I am YOU are the death of MANY flight simulators you will have seen! But survived also many have. Strong in the force they are!

[Holdit 551]

I've seen this before not so long ago with FTX global..."I have new thing...I like new thing...die, old thing, die!"

 

I don't get why people don't seem to be able to enjoy the new thing and leave others to keep enjoying the old thing. Horses for courses, don't worry about it, everyone should concentrate on enjoying what they have. Whatever it is. After all, there are still FS9er's out there having a great time...and wondering what all the fuss about the new-fangled FSX is about. :smile:

[Groovin_DC-10 51]

FSX will still be going strong if no new simulators are released.  I think there will still be a lot of FS9 users as well.  I think X-Plane has a big future.  As for P3D, I think it's too early for me to give an opinion because it has only been out for less than a week.  But one prediction I'm making is that a lot of P3D owners aren't going to be happy with PMDG prices.  Just my opinion.

 

The main reason is that P3D is not an entertainment platform.  I know a lot of you have switched over, but avsim members are a small minority of simmers.

 

I fly FS9 and FSX.  I will try out XP10 when they have global airport buildings available in an update and of course, PMDG. 

 

It saddens me to read all the death wishes going out to FSX from some P3D users (not all of you, of course, but some).  Hopefully, before some of you decide bash FSX, you can take a moment and think of the great times you got from FSX.

 

Just imagine what FSX would be like if there was suddenly a major technological breakthrough in CPU speed.

 

I enjoy FS9 and FSX and I fly them regularly.  I just had a great sight seeing flight in FS9 a few hours ago.  To my eyes and my own personal needs as a simmer, FSX is superior to FS9.  There are also FS9 users who find it superior to FSX.  But I'm not going to bash FS9 and wish it would die because I know there are a lot of people who prefer it as their main simulator because it fits their needs.  The more flight sims we have available to us, the better. 

 

As for me, I see myself flying FS9, FSX, and most likely XP10 in 5 years.  Unless some insane new sim comes out, and I would be adding that to the sims I'm currently flying.

[ArjenVdv 190]

P3D and XPlane 10 objectively compared

P3D:
- 32-bit

- 25+ FPS
- still 4GB VAS limit (people are still experiencing OOMs)
- still many limitations

- flight dynamics and physics are nothing like real life: no ground effect, no realistic ground friction model, no realistic turbulence/variance/windshear (I speak from experience too)
- planes are nearly invincible, flying wrongly doesn't come with many consequences

- add-ons will normally be much more expensive

XPlane 10:
- 64-bit
- 60+ FPS
- no VAS limit 
- barely any limitations (we can have weather radar and rain effects)
- flight dynamics come very close to real life (although not perfect)

- you can break your plane if you fly it wrongly

- lack of default airport scenery (gamebreaker)
- add-ons will be similarly priced to FSX add-ons

 

XPlane 10 is for the most part objectively better than P3D. 32-bit is holding P3D back massively in its potential. Because I consider the lack of airport scenery in XPlane 10 a gamebreaker, P3D would be my choice if it was 64-bit, and that is because 64-bit massively increases the possibilities in a program. There will be room for more animations, physics, graphics and performance (source: Froogle).

[z06z33 781]

P3D and XPlane 10 objectively compared

P3D:

- 32-bit

- 25+ FPS

- still 4GB VAS limit (people are still experiencing OOMs)

- still many limitations

- flight dynamics and physics are nothing like real life: no ground effect, no realistic ground friction model, no realistic turbulence/variance/windshear (I speak from experience too)

- planes are nearly invincible, flying wrongly doesn't come with many consequences

- add-ons will normally be much more expensive

XPlane 10:

- 64-bit

- 60+ FPS

- no VAS limit 

- barely any limitations (we can have weather radar and rain effects)

- flight dynamics come very close to real life (although not perfect)

- you can break your plane if you fly it wrongly

- lack of default airport scenery (gamebreaker)

- add-ons will be similarly priced to FSX add-ons

 

XPlane 10 is for the most part objectively better than P3D. 32-bit is holding P3D back massively in its potential. Because I consider the lack of airport scenery in XPlane 10 a gamebreaker, P3D would be my choice if it was 64-bit, and that is because 64-bit massively increases the possibilities in a program. There will be room for more animations, physics, graphics and performance (source: Froogle).

P3d will be 64 bit someday and I've never had an oom in fsx or p3d

[ArjenVdv 190]

 

 

P3d will be 64 bit someday and I've never had an oom in fsx or p3d

 

People who are not experiencing OOMs are running relatively lower settings. I don't have many OOMs either, but that is because I am not running AI traffic. The fact some people already have them says enough. The bottom line is, in 32-bit flight sims, you can't have all the eye candy turned on without being punished by bad performance or OOMs. In 64-bit sims however, you can have everything you want. You want max settings, 100% AI, 4096 clouds, add-on scenery, an add-on plane, weather radar, shadows and all kinds of other features all at once? No problem! Unfortunately P3D have stated not going 64-bit anytime soon, so therefore "eventually" might as well mean "in 5 years". 

[EngineRoom 205]

FSX has probably reached a zenith with what can be done with the platform and as people continue to cram more and more stuff into the sim the OOM is going to rear its ugly head more and more. There will of course be lots of FSX die hards, just as there are/were FS9 die hards who will refuse to move because they have invested too much time and money in their sim to start over with a new one. However, as the other platforms move progressively ahead of FSX in terms of what can be done the FSX hold outs will slowly, bit by bit move on as they become tempted by the increasingly advanced features of the newer 64bit platforms. Then of course there's the question mark as whether or not we will be able to activate our installation of FSX in the years to come.

 

P3D will probably never shake off the EULA albatross hanging from its neck. There will still be people lecturing others on the rights or wrongs of its use in the hobby context, and there will still be people trying to do all sorts of mental gymnastics to convince themselves (and others) that they are more than just spending their spare time pursuing a hobby. The big unknown about P3D is how the addon developers will embrace it - particularly with regards to pricing their products in P3D. Some will offer dual FSX/P3D licenses, some will make you purchase seperately (or again if you already have an FSX license), and I have a feeling some will charge significantly more for a P3D license. When 64bit P3D does arrive it's going to cause a lot of heart ache because just about everyones' favourite addons will need to be recompiled - and again there is a big question mark as to who will charge us for the 64bit versions of our existing addons and how much it will cost. I foresee some bumpy skies ahead for P3D as a platform used by hobbyists.

 

X-Plane is probably the most exciting prospect. It has already made the leap to 64bit so you know for sure whatever you buy now will not become obsolete or unworkable a year or so down the line. Developers are slowly (very slowly) tapping into the potential of X-Plane and the possibilities are quite exciting and there are none of the EULA issues (perceived or otherwise!) that P3D has. However, lots of FSX users are going to refuse to migrate to X-Plane because they can't face the prospect of abandoning all their addons and familiarising themselves with a new sim. I get the impression that Laminar aren't particularly concerned with X-Plane superceding FSX as the mainstream desktop civil flight simulator of choice, and as such it may be a long time (if at all) before we see the kind of features in X-Plane that FSX users have been requesting. I also get the feeling that some sections of the X-Plane community are perhaps slightly hostile towards the FSX "riff-raff" coming across and spoiling their niche simulator. FSX really benefitted from being static for so many years - developers could really get to grips with it and push the boundaries without having to worry about new versions being released. X-Plane will probably have to endure the downside of new version cycles and both users and developers will have to get used again to the old problem of grappling with a new version every 2-3 years.

 

Aerofly FS is something of an unknown, but I think it's fair to say it won't compete in the same scale and scope as the likes of FSX/P3D/XP.

 

Flightgear is progressing but it's got a way to go before it can match the features of the sims I've listed above.

 

I honestly can't see anybody else producing a world wide coverage feature rich sand box flight sim in the forseeable future.

 

 

The bottom line is those who stick with FSX are going to be using an increasingly obsolete platform over the coming years and will have to watch the other sims like P3D and XP progress whilst FSX struggles with OOMs and poorly optimised performance. If FSX users want to enjoy the best that this hobby can offer in the years to come they will have to move on at some point. P3D may seem like the path of least resistance at the moment, but that will change when it hits the big 64bit bump and everybody has to get their addons recompiled. X-Plane, whilst it may be a bitter pill to swallow now might just ultimately be the least painful way forward. Certainly if someone new to the hobby asked me what sim they should start out with right now I'd say X-Plane without hesitation.

[troyk 27]

Kyle,

 

The Pro License includes using P3D as a simulator. In fact, one or two guys from LM have been on this forum and stated that anyone can use it for that purpose. What is the problem?

 

I do believe you're correct, but that will cost you $199.00 out of the box.

 

And even if you buy the cheaper Academic licence they don't even bother to check your student credentials.

 

Seems almost like a nudge nudge wink wink thing going on.

 

In any case, X-Plane looks like an plausible alternative and it'll be interesting to see what PMDG can do with the platform.

[troyk 27]

Oh BTW I flew from NZAA to YMML on the T7 last night. With about 5 minutes to go before landing "Fatal Exception has occurred".

 

#####!???

 

And that my friends is why FSX must DIE and be BURIED!

[Pe11e 812]

5 years is a very long period. I have this strange feeling that AeroflyFS will took over. It has huge potential.

[bjratchf 80]

Threads like this remind me every day that people rarely ever look under the surface.  I loved blowing people's minds when they said FSX was just a game, and then showed them simulators running MS ESP.  Granted, all of that is now P3D, but still...

 

As far as five years from now, who knows.  I just hope there's a sim to fly planes in when I'm not flying in the real world.

 

 

Trust me Kyle, you'll be bored of sims by then. Real world flying is much more fun (just add flight attendants... at whatever regional you end up at!)

[scandinavian13 5,192]

Trust me Kyle, you'll be bored of sims by then. Real world flying is much more fun (just add flight attendants... at whatever regional you end up at!)

I started flying in 2003 and am still not tired of sims. When I fly a good bit, I tend to cut back on sim flying, but I still do it. First sim was FS5.1.

[Groovin_DC-10 51]

Oh BTW I flew from NZAA to YMML on the T7 last night. With about 5 minutes to go before landing "Fatal Exception has occurred".

 

#####!???

 

And that my friends is why FSX must DIE and be BURIED!

 

So it should also die and be buried for those of us who never get OOM or CTD?