Microsoft's new CEO - Satya Nadella

[tttocs 301]

 

 

I'm not sure that part of "the world" actually had a desktop computer in the first place ... what I see in the mobile device growth are a lot of "new" computer users, people that never had a computer prior to the mobile device. So it's tapping into a new market of user in addition to a traditional existing computer user. But as with all taps, there is a point of "tapped out" where growth levels out ... not there yet, but it's not some endless consumer tap.

 

We're wandering far afield here, but...

 

All markets are subject to change.  Of course, this one's prone to being tapped out.  But the desktop market has stagnated precisely because business in it has stagnated.  Why does the average consumer anywhere need a more powerful desktop?  For years, the advantages to upgrading for the average desktop user were clear.  Now they're not, and the market has shifted.

 

Don't misunderstand... I'd love to see more power in desktop solutions - but the average consumer has no need, so that subsidy has gone away.  There's more money elsewhere in "the cloud" for developers (software and hardware).  Are you really arguing this is not true, or that you wish it weren't true?

 

Scott

[Guest]

 

 

There's more money elsewhere in "the cloud" for developers (software and hardware).  Are you really arguing this is not true, or that you wish it weren't true?

 

Not really arguing at all, more of a debate and discussion.

 

The stagnation is a result of companies shifting to mobile interests almost exclusively ... if you look at statistic, there is still a huge majority of consumers that do 90% of their play/work on a desktop computer, they didn't just stop using a desktop computer.

 

There is nothing that has drastically changed with what we do on the desktop front, it's still a computer that can do more, do it faster, and do it more efficiently than any mobile device.  The mobile device is more a compromised extension of the desktop with limited capabilities, not a replacement of the desktop -- it's the child away from the parent.  

 

It's interesting to see companies drop everything because they're convenience it's the only future ... just like the dot com days and the dot com bust ... everyone had to have a dot com or else they would fail -- people failed with or without a dot com, just as people succeeded with or without a dot com.  

 

Technology changes are never an "all or nothing" proposition, this has been demonstrated throughout the history of technology ... remember the days of "plowshare" where the US thought atomic explosions could be used to build highways ... actually found this gem on YouTube:

 

 

It's the human condition which really hasn't changed that much, we hook onto something new and the next thing ya know, it's the only future for everyone ... rather than it being a combination of technologies with a more balanced future the evolves over time.

 

Microsoft need to look in the past if they want understand how to proceed in the future ... mobile is one "part" but by no means the ONLY part of that future.  Technologies supplement, not replace.

 

Maybe a little off topic ... still covering the future of Microsoft and hoping the find that balance.

[BilboBaggins 82]

A little up the thread... I do know for a fact that any project that reached the $10m mark in development cost directly got Ballmer's attention for approval/disapproval of continued development (mine was one at the time).  Whether that was the case throughout his rein I can't say, but for all of the perception that MS is a huge company and so much must be going on one person can't grok it all, it was surprising, both when Bill Gates was there, and then later Ballmer, how involved they were pervasively across the day-to-day of everything that was under development.

 

And further, Ballmer was very much socially invested in the tops of his teams, and it showed in the constant "sports atmosphere" of the place, the metaphors used to represent excellence, etc. etc. -- the whole place, at least in the US, very much took the tone from the top, as it did under Gates.

 

But that tone changed distinctly under Ballmer, and for the worse, in my opinion; and now we're in, "let's see if it can go anywhere better" mode.

 

A number of people I know who were out near the end of Ballmer's reign are now back, so that's indicative of something as well.  Either they're running out of fresh blood from outside to drive things effectively in the direction they want; or, more likely in my opinion, it started to be recognized that a lot of really bad decisions about development and management direction had been made, and a lot of talented people lost, who should have been kept on and been treated with more respect, and been given more authority and responsibility (not one, OR the other, but BOTH) as well as flexibility to head in the direction of their passion.

 

If there are positives to say about Ballmer, he pressured a company that was growing in too many disparate directions to standardize at least a little bit on some things, to try to be a little more coherent and consistent in its approach.  For all of Gates' often dictatorial style, he ran a natural life commune not a monarchist state, and MS needed a little monarchy, for awhile.  Ballmer did some of that, but using directives not far different from those present in Woody Allen's "What's Up, Tiger Lily?"

 

Oh well.

[goates 582]

One positive change already occurred last November when they dropped the stack ranking system.

 

http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/12/5094864/microsoft-kills-stack-ranking-internal-structure

 

As for the One OS To Rule Them All Approach, they might be well served by following Apple's lead in keeping the desktop and mobile interfaces separate. OS X and iOS do share some underpinnings and some common features, but each are built for their specific use cases.

 

 

“We don’t waste time thinking, ‘But it should be one [interface]!’ How do you make these [operating systems] merge together?’ What a waste of energy that would be,” Schiller said. But he added that the company definitely tries to smooth out bumps in the road that make it difficult for its customers to switch between a Mac and an iOS device—for example, making sure its messaging and calendaring apps have the same name on both OS X and iOS.

 

“To say [OS X and iOS] should be the same, independent of their purpose? Let’s just converge, for the sake of convergence? [it’s] absolutely a nongoal,” Federighi said. “You don’t want to say the Mac became less good at being a Mac because someone tried to turn it into iOS. At the same time, you don’t want to feel like iOS was designed by [one] company and Mac was designed by [a different] company, and they’re different for reasons of lack of common vision. We have a common sense of aesthetics, a common set of principles that drive us, and we’re building the best products we can for their unique purposes. So you’ll see them be the same where that makes sense, and you’ll see them be different in those things that are critical to their essence.”

 

http://www.macworld.com/article/2090829/apple-executives-on-the-mac-at-30-the-mac-keeps-going-forever.html

[LHookins 3,117]

One positive change already occurred last November when they dropped the stack ranking system.

 

Most excellent.  Thanks for the update.  Wish I'd heard about it sooner.

 

Hook

[Dillon 2,208]

My question for you would be, how do you know that so many of the things you have noted in previous posts are directly Ballmer's fault? I for one am not a huge fan of him either, but I feel like all I ever read from you is why it is his fault that Windows 8 is so "bad" and why Flight "failed (for the record, I'm not saying they are perfect products)."

 

Is it really his "fault" that the Windows start screen changed with 8? Did he really just "slap on" Metro (which is really "Modern UI," by the way...) onto Windows 7, or did the team actually go and painfully optimize lots of the code heavily (I'd say it's optimized considering the compatibility issues with some programs)? Was it his decision of what game to make next at Microsoft Studios when Flight was conceived? Was it his idea to make the Xbox One the way it is? I somehow doubt that the CEO of a company as large as Microsoft makes what could be considered minor decisions. There are project leads and creative directors that get hired and assigned to specific products for a reason. There is so much going on at Microsoft that I don't think Steve ever even knew that Flight existed. The lead at Microsoft Studios might want a game developed because he sees that they need to bring more money into that department. The studio then decides on a project and puts together a team. Steve may never even know or care what the product is, though.

 

I don't think Ballmer left anything to clean up. I think Microsoft just needs a CEO that will take the time to evaluate the bigger products a bit more and talk directly to the project leads for those products. I'm not at all saying that Steve has made the best overall decisions for the company, but then again, running a giant software company of this nature can't possibly be an easy task.

 

The buck stopped with Ballmer, he was the one in charge. He put his team in place and approved everything that went on during his tenure either directly or indirectly. He stood on stage and sold Windows 8 so he knew what was going on. I've seen Bill Gate on stage with a preview of Flight Simulator (FSX to be more specific). To sit here and try to alleviate Ballmer of overall responsibility is crazy. Even in the military when something happens in the lower ranks the senior officer is held accountable whether he was directly involved or not. You've been a big supporter of Flight and Windows 8 in the past and to be fare both have their good points but Ballmer is totally responsible for the failures at Microsoft during his time as CEO, period... He had a failing agenda that was put in place by him and the people at the top with him. No he wasn't involved in every mundane task but the overall culture and products resulting from his team and that culture is his to own. Crap runs down hill as they say. The head of the company sets the tone for the whole organization...

 

 

A little up the thread... I do know for a fact that any project that reached the $10m mark in development cost directly got Ballmer's attention for approval/disapproval of continued development (mine was one at the time).  Whether that was the case throughout his rein I can't say, but for all of the perception that MS is a huge company and so much must be going on one person can't grok it all, it was surprising, both when Bill Gates was there, and then later Ballmer, how involved they were pervasively across the day-to-day of everything that was under development.

 

And further, Ballmer was very much socially invested in the tops of his teams, and it showed in the constant "sports atmosphere" of the place, the metaphors used to represent excellence, etc. etc. -- the whole place, at least in the US, very much took the tone from the top, as it did under Gates.

 

But that tone changed distinctly under Ballmer, and for the worse, in my opinion; and now we're in, "let's see if it can go anywhere better" mode.

 

A number of people I know who were out near the end of Ballmer's reign are now back, so that's indicative of something as well.  Either they're running out of fresh blood from outside to drive things effectively in the direction they want; or, more likely in my opinion, it started to be recognized that a lot of really bad decisions about development and management direction had been made, and a lot of talented people lost, who should have been kept on and been treated with more respect, and been given more authority and responsibility (not one, OR the other, but BOTH) as well as flexibility to head in the direction of their passion.

 

Great post!

[tttocs 301]

 

 

The stagnation is a result of companies shifting to mobile interests almost exclusively ... if you look at statistic, there is still a huge majority of consumers that do 90% of their play/work on a desktop computer, they didn't just stop using a desktop computer.

 

Here's where I think we disagree.  Sure many haven't stopped using desktops - but for the average user, the desktop purchased 5 years ago was already more powerful than their needs demanded, as use models become more and more web-centric.  There was no incentive to upgrade, and PC sales began to plummet.  Companies didn't abandon the desktop market, it abandoned them (just ask Dell and HP), as the average consumer saw no need to upgrade.  Meanwhile mobile use boomed.  Where would you invest?  Those that were slow to react to the shift, or who reacted poorly  (HP, MS et al) have suffered as a consequence.

 

Of course there's still a desktop market, and many users still want all the power they can get.  But developments have slowed, and the users who still want to push the performance envelope are a smaller group than they once were.  Serious content creators (particularly in the graphic and video areas), scientific users, developers and enthusiasts will always crave more.  But the fuel that drove the heyday of the PC (a large consumer base who still saw benefits in increased performance on a desktop) is diminished.

 

Scott

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

ere's where I think we disagree.  Sure many haven't stopped using desktops - but for the average user, the desktop purchased 5 years ago was already more powerful than their needs demanded, as use models become more and more web-centric.

 

I agree....There is also a new hobby out there in refurbishing ~5 year old desktops and laptops running XP or Win7. A friend of mine collects old computers and refurbishes them as a hobby and sells them on trademe.co.nz (New Zealand's Ebay). A good market for that as a lot of people just want something to support and backup a smartphone and don't need to buy a new computer to do that.

 

So you can buy a $750 smart phone, and a refurbished $100 desktop/laptop with XP or Win7 and you are all set. The smart phone becomes your primary device and the refurbished PC is there to support it and back it up, and it allows you to some PC stuff as well.

 

I spend more time on my smart phone today then on a PC or Laptop. Most of my work can be done on a smart phone as is keeps me connected, my weekly reports need to be done on a laptop and that is about it. Windows 7 or XP and Office 2003 is good enough for my weekly reports, I don't need the latest offerings from MS any more.

[JB3DG 225]

More power even for the average user is still something I think is appreciated in general though. One of the comments I got when I took my workstation to an IT friend of mine when I was stuck with a driver crash was that he wished all his customers' computers would boot and run as fast as mine did. Backups etc are an annoyance when the CPU isn't fast enough.

[gizmosellsbunnys 106]

Hope to see change at Microsoft its more status quo. They need to into mobile web quicker. Flight Simulator from Microsoft very unlikely unless its mobile based at this point.

[BilboBaggins 82]

Dillon (and others),

 

A main driver in my commentary is really, in some ways, to steer younger, brighter folks than myself (such as you) towards the more likely opportunities in the future, in  your thinking.

 

There's going to be HUGE opportunity for people in development and IT moving towards the winners in the area of massive, secure data clouds.  Amazon Web Services, Hadoop, Cloudera and Hortonworks (as services developers working on/around Hadoop) and some of the private clouds - iTunes, Google, MS' Skydrive, Facebook, in current order of success - are the ones to track and think about opportunities related to. Rackspace, another. Adobe Cloud. As much as a lot of people hate Adobe Creative Cloud for its cost structure, for those who want a sustained, professional, constantly improving environment, it is the RIGHT way to go for the software suite derived from it.

 

Microsoft can be a big, successful player in that area, particularly with its SkyDrive and Office (it's never going to catch up to Adobe, Facebook, Google or Amazon.... or Alibaba.com, thinking more worldwide, for that matter; it'll be misdirected hubris for anyone at MS, even someone as talented and dedicated as Nadella, to think otherwise). 

 

If Microsoft can assure -- as it has for many years, even with the clunkiness of MSN/Hotmail, and Skydrive, and Exchange Server -- that it can provide reliable, secured, transparent, accessible-everywhere storage of your content produced with its software, that's the most important first step.  A small step into other data -- photos, music, video, etc. is okay, but it's a distraction at this point and again, think big -- no point in replicating what others are already doing fantastically well, just for the sake of saying, "we're Microsoft, so of course we're better" -- that's the biggest stupidity holding back the company for a decade.  I can't tell you how valuable it is to me to know my email, text and Office-related content, whether at home or at work, Just Works.  Skydrive is excellent that way.  Access to Skydrive is not a big deal.  Trusting it is still a step that needs to be taken, large-scale; that is an important target for MS.

 

On the other side, clients - Glass, smartphones, display units of any type, really, large and small - watches, clothing and transport sensors, Nest, whatever you can stick computing power on to gather data from, eventually specialized device elements that monitor your knee cartilage, even, during sports events or just plain workouts or walking, say, are going to go absolutely pervasive.  Robotics globally is going to be huge; the slavery of Foxconn workers is quickly coming to an end, and they're going to have to find more interesting things to do, which there will be, as their repetitive work is replaced by robots.  With that robotics -- on-planet and, soon enough, off-planet -- comes massive sensor data as well, for monitoring, control, analysis, communications, insight -- that is only going to drive Cloud to "meta-Cloud" -- the kind of thing, like the Internet, that it will not be possible for one company, or country, or a consortium of companies, to compete in inefficiently, something that will require the objectivity and freedom of international (and eventually, intergalactic) science for control, and not all this silly waste being perpetuated by business competition now.

 

So, pin your sights on that future, run away from anything and anyone resisting it and complaining about it and fighting it, as it's going to happen, starting in your lifetime; and it's not worth the waste of your time, if you're bright, to participate in anything getting in its way.

 

Sermon mode off.

[Air1 136]

Hope to see change at Microsoft its more status quo. They need to into mobile web quicker. Flight Simulator from Microsoft very unlikely unless its mobile based at this point.

I myself don't care to flight sim on a mobile device but www.aeroflyfs.com has a great app for the iPad and iPhone but not for android yet.

 

Steve

[Dillon 2,208]

I agree....There is also a new hobby out there in refurbishing ~5 year old desktops and laptops running XP or Win7. A friend of mine collects old computers and refurbishes them as a hobby and sells them on trademe.co.nz (New Zealand's Ebay). A good market for that as a lot of people just want something to support and backup a smartphone and don't need to buy a new computer to do that.

 

So you can buy a $750 smart phone, and a refurbished $100 desktop/laptop with XP or Win7 and you are all set. The smart phone becomes your primary device and the refurbished PC is there to support it and back it up, and it allows you to some PC stuff as well.

 

I spend more time on my smart phone today then on a PC or Laptop. Most of my work can be done on a smart phone as is keeps me connected, my weekly reports need to be done on a laptop and that is about it. Windows 7 or XP and Office 2003 is good enough for my weekly reports, I don't need the latest offerings from MS any more.

 

The problem here is outside of devices like XBOX/PS game quality is lacking on mobile devices. Angry Birds is not on the level of Ace Combat and nothing is as well thought out as PC titles like Falcon4 or Flight Simulator. Has anyone seen XPlane for the tablet? In the game arena Xbox/PS and mobile titles have not surpassed PC titles in quality and unless the masses are that stupid they've forgotten how much more of a game they can get from the PC version of any given game it's really making no since.

 

There is two distinct things I've noticed about Apple vs Android, the quality of apps. Android has some serious crap out there. Apple is a little better as they police things more. With Android you have to sift through so much crap to find something good. All reviews are glowing only to find the app seriously lacking. There is no way mobile solutions in quality have outdone PC software. It's more like social media is driving this more than anything. People like the ability to check Facebook on the fly to get the latest gossip (young Beliebler girls and the like drive this catigory) or browse the internet. For serious work solutions and games that show the developer has half a brain mobile sucks period...

[Dillon 2,208]

Dillon (and others),

 

A main driver in my commentary is really, in some ways, to steer younger, brighter folks than myself (such as you) towards the more likely opportunities in the future, in your thinking.

 

There's going to be HUGE opportunity for people in development and IT moving towards the winners in the area of massive, secure data clouds. Amazon Web Services, Hadoop, Cloudera and Hortonworks (as services developers working on/around Hadoop) and some of the private clouds - iTunes, Google, MS' Skydrive, Facebook, in current order of success - are the ones to track and think about opportunities related to. Rackspace, another. Adobe Cloud. As much as a lot of people hate Adobe Creative Cloud for its cost structure, for those who want a sustained, professional, constantly improving environment, it is the RIGHT way to go for the software suite derived from it.

 

Microsoft can be a big, successful player in that area, particularly with its SkyDrive and Office (it's never going to catch up to Adobe, Facebook, Google or Amazon.... or Alibaba.com, thinking more worldwide, for that matter; it'll be misdirected hubris for anyone at MS, even someone as talented and dedicated as Nadella, to think otherwise).

 

If Microsoft can assure -- as it has for many years, even with the clunkiness of MSN/Hotmail, and Skydrive, and Exchange Server -- that it can provide reliable, secured, transparent, accessible-everywhere storage of your content produced with its software, that's the most important first step. A small step into other data -- photos, music, video, etc. is okay, but it's a distraction at this point and again, think big -- no point in replicating what others are already doing fantastically well, just for the sake of saying, "we're Microsoft, so of course we're better" -- that's the biggest stupidity holding back the company for a decade. I can't tell you how valuable it is to me to know my email, text and Office-related content, whether at home or at work, Just Works. Skydrive is excellent that way. Access to Skydrive is not a big deal. Trusting it is still a step that needs to be taken, large-scale; that is an important target for MS.

 

On the other side, clients - Glass, smartphones, display units of any type, really, large and small - watches, clothing and transport sensors, Nest, whatever you can stick computing power on to gather data from, eventually specialized device elements that monitor your knee cartilage, even, during sports events or just plain workouts or walking, say, are going to go absolutely pervasive. Robotics globally is going to be huge; the slavery of Foxconn workers is quickly coming to an end, and they're going to have to find more interesting things to do, which there will be, as their repetitive work is replaced by robots. With that robotics -- on-planet and, soon enough, off-planet -- comes massive sensor data as well, for monitoring, control, analysis, communications, insight -- that is only going to drive Cloud to "meta-Cloud" -- the kind of thing, like the Internet, that it will not be possible for one company, or country, or a consortium of companies, to compete in inefficiently, something that will require the objectivity and freedom of international (and eventually, intergalactic) science for control, and not all this silly waste being perpetuated by business competition now.

 

So, pin your sights on that future, run away from anything and anyone resisting it and complaining about it and fighting it, as it's going to happen, starting in your lifetime; and it's not worth the waste of your time, if you're bright, to participate in anything getting in its way.

 

Sermon mode off.

 

Between me and you I don't want all my personal business in the Cloud. After the NSA revelations and Target credit card debacle it's not an attractive prospect. There's enough info out there with our SSN's (or whatever means various countries use to track their population) let alone us freely giving more. The whole thing reminds me of an episode from Outer Limits with most not able to see through the smoke and mirrors. I don't even have a Facebook account. Why make some young ###### who sold out his country rich with my personal info on his servers? Like I said above this is what's really driving this mobile revolution. Big brother doesn't even have to try anymore... This kind of thing has been predicted many times in the past about a possible future society scenario without a desirable outcome.

[ahuimanu 50]

Honestly, does anyone really think that MS would consider bringing back flt simming when their last attempt failed. I would suggest, find another fishing hole, this one has dried up. This economic power has more to worry about then flight simming.....sorry

 

No, I don't think MS is going to revive MSFS.  However, PC gaming remains and DirectX is still a very popular technology upon which games are based.

 

Their last attempt (Flight) wasn't an attempt - it was a farce.  They brought in some "ringer" who didn't know Flight Simulator from My Little Pony and, in the usual Johnny-come-lately style of Microsoft, was just trying to emulate others.  Flight was an unfortunate kick in the backside as we were already being thrown out the door.

 

Lockheed has the code, so that's just about the only way forward from the lineage that is MS Flight Simulator.  It was a good run while it lasted.