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paulwilko10

How to predict turbulence with active sky next?

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Hiya

 

I set a flight plan up, add it to asn and get the briefing.

From that briefing, how do I determine if any turbulence is likely?

Or is there another way of finding out?

 

Thanks

 

Paul

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Good question. What's the situation in real life? Is turbulence something you can predict? Or does it just arrive and smack you upside the head? :BigGrin:   I wait with bated breath. (Well, with interest anyway)

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I'm sure if your well versed in the black art of weather analysis it's possible. Airlines I'm sure, get this predicted information and when they encounter it on an actual flight its radioed back. down the line by the aircraft in front.

 

The yellow blotched radar reflections with red nuclei on my ASN injected weather mean turbulence too me. I do find a little wry smile creeping across my face when I put on the fasten seat belt signs for my virtual passengers as I see these reflections lol the number of times the captain has put on the sign and the crew have announced that the captain is expecting some bumpy weather and nothing's happened. Then there was the time dinner was just being served and we hit some major bumpy weather that shook the 747 so much, glasses and 'stuff' were being thrown all over the place in the galley. No seat belt sign or announcement. The fact the stewards went to ther seats and buckled up after first putting the gondolas back I didn't exactly fill me with conficpdence. I guess the turbulence was unexpected. It certainly frightened the living c£&p outta me!!!

 

The majority of the time the captain is aware of turbulent weather ahead. If that's entirely predicted or radioed back I can't say. Most of the time the signs ding and you buckle up and the turbulence materialises. Ever since the 747 turbulance incident i only unbuckle the belt to go stretch my legs or visit the washroom. Weather is Erm, unpredictable at times.

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Check for airmets/sigmets affecting your route. in addition, windy and gusty condtions at departure and/or destination give a hint about the presence of turbulence.

 

Best way (IMO) is to use 122.05 This gives a live (updating as you fly) briefing including warnings about possible weather hazards (sigmets/airmets/t-storms/wind shear/microbursts) that you  may encounter in your flight path.

 

Of course, turbulence is not predictable in many cases, but the above will give you info about the most significant ones.

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Thanks guys

 

I thought it would of been on there, but maybe that would be un realistic

 

I'll have a look at the tips mentioned ☺

 

Thanks again

 

Paul

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The best way is to use an aviation weather site or (what I do) is to use Sky Vector to see the SIGMETs and AIRMETs, You'll find all sorts of aviation weather related warnings and advisories.

 

Once on the SkyVector site, you'll need to set which layers you'll want active.

 

You can also use the AVIATION WEATHER CENTER site, or others.

 

I hope this has helped.

 

Fly VATSIM!

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The best way is to use an aviation weather site or (what I do) is to use Sky Vector to see the SIGMETs and AIRMETs, You'll find all sorts of aviation weather related warnings and advisories.

 

Why not just use ASN to view these?

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Jim,

 

That's a good question.

 

I find that the aviation weather sites are a little easier to use, a bit more flexible/adjustable, and contain more data that I can switch back and forth to/from.

 

Also, when it comes to precipitation, ASN's display is limited to a smaller area and it sometimes takes a lot longer to process changing areas. I can see the entire NEXRAD, Satellite, and other information for an entire continent on the aviation weather sites.

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Some years ago at my former airline when I was in the flight plan part of the business, We did have a forecast shear-value indicated from 0-9, I believe. This value was based on various mathematical algorithms from aircraft path as compared with forecast jetstream direction and intensity. This was designed for CAT (Clear Air Turbulence) scenarios not associated with thunderstorms or other well-known turbulence producers (e.g. mountain-wave, mechanical, wake). On balance, I don't think the shear-value had much credibility as it was based on the theoretical, thereby not including a variety of other atmospheric dynamics.

 

While there are some advanced,  cutting-edge turbulence avoidance tools in development, I believe PIREPS and Weather Radar (except for CAT) are still the order of the day.

 

Les Parson

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But this is a simulator!

ASN knows what weather it is throwing at FSX and should know if it is going to simulate turbulence, no?

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Paul,

 

What is your point here? Of course ASN knows, just like it knows about rain, snow, winds, thermals, pressure, temperatures, dew points, and clouds.

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Aside from using some very expensive weather products that the airlines use- for high altitude flight, you can use high level SIGWX Prof charts to get an idea-

 

http://aviationweather.gov/progchart/high?region=a

 

The areas bounded in yellow are areas with possible moderate turb (indicated by ^ symbols).

 

Looking at the winds aloft charts, in my experience anytime a jetstream changes direction significantly, you can expect turbulence going through that area- the key is wind direction/speed shifts. I'm not sure if ASN simulates this turbulence though- as they sometimes happen outside of SIGMET areas.

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Paul,

 

What is your point here? Of course ASN knows, just like it knows about rain, snow, winds, thermals, pressure, temperatures, dew points, and clouds.

my point is that if at all possible, I would like the option to go through or avoid turbulence.

If I don't know it's there, I can't do either.

 

It was only a question, not trying to cause arguments.

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Ok there are 4 different sliders for turbulence that you can turn down to zero or lower values and that will give you less or no turbulence. 

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Ok there are 4 different sliders for turbulence that you can turn down to zero or lower values and that will give you less or no turbulence. 

 

Jim, I think he's just looking to add turbulence avoidance as a challenging aspect of the simulator, not control it himself. To that end, the PMDG weather radar on the 777 (and supposedly coming to the NGX soon) are the only FSX avionics I know of that are capable of designating turbulence on radar returns using it's WX+T mode. And personally I've never noticed it indicate any turbulence that wasn't already defined by a storm cell, so even that will be of limited use. 

 

As previously noted, sigmets and airmets are your best bet to finding turbulence. There are also user-generated pireps in ASN if you are in live mode. Looking at live weather radar, a winds chart like the one linked above by Bjratchf, or atleast examining the winds map on X-Gauge will also give some clues. You will find a higher degree of turbulence in temperature gradients, areas with fluctuating temp conditions where high and low pressure zones may be colliding. Same for winds aloft, you can probably expect some turbulence when crossing into/out of a jetstream or air mass that has a different speed or direction relative to the air mass around it - which the X Gauge or a flight planning utility like PFPX (sourcing it's weather data from ASN) will display quite nicely. And you can expect turbulence when climbing over high terrain, which ASN also mimics quite nicely. I always seem to get turbulence climbing over the Alaskan Range when departing Anchorage in the NGX. My climb rate also tends to shoot up due to updrafts.

 

Just keep in mind that predicting turbulence is still very difficult even for professional meteorologists or flight planners/dispatchers. Even if we can scope out the data ASN is feeding the sim, we have no way of doing that in nature. Some data, like exactly predicted turbulence locations, is just not realistic for us to have. 

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I'm only surmising, and it would need someone from HiFi to answer the question regarding turbulance. it is unrealistic to assume that a weather engine running on a personal computer injecting weather into a simulator is fully capable of predicting turbulance when in real life the super computers of the Met Office have trouble predicting real world weather which is interpreted by humans.

 

I have to ask myself what is possible within a simulator. Although real world weather is used, a computer programme must use certain well known indicators of turbulance and switch on turbulance accordingly. it would be interesting to here from a commercial pilot on this subject. Are flight plans amended to take turbulance into account or are they simply warned that its a possibility on the route they are traveling?

 

JSkorna hit the nail on the head, if you experience turbulance iit's because it's their. Just as in RL you have to deal with it. Or, use the tools mentioned above to decide what route you'll take. Maybe an enhancement is needed on ASN if enough people are interested maybe!

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ASN does a great job of injecting turbulence where it is expected to be- even if in real life you'd be lucky and have a smooth ride.

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ASN does a great job of injecting turbulence where it is expected to be- even if in real life you'd be lucky and have a smooth ride.

Good point. Even more reason to having turbulance depicted on the ASN map perhaps. Because it's so unpredictable, using other sources may give you different results. With data you have to stick with one source to get consistent results.

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I think ASN dealt with an issue where the turbulence was always simulated constantly within the SIGMET areas, and they modified this after SP1 to be more varied. Just like in real life, a SIGMET only forecasts the potential for strong turbulence- to find out if it's acutely happening you need to rely on PIREPS.

 

http://aviationweather.gov/airep

 

You'll notice that going across the pacific, aircraft will submit reports at each waypoint as they submit position reports.

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Some great answers, so thank you all for that.

 

The reason I asked is purely to see where there is the likelihood of turbulence.

I don't want to turn it off in ASN, just was wondering if it's possible to know where i am likely to hit it.

 

If ASN is injecting turbulence, then my guess would be it should be able to tell us where it will happen.

 

If that is left out to keep it realistic, then fine, but was just wondering if its possible

 

Thanks again all and it seems to have got our heads thinking :-)

 

Paul

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