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FSX and Add Ons

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Just my 2 cents...but everyone complains about FS default aircraft and to a lesser extent, scenery. As a venture capitalist by profession here's what surprises me. I may have a zero misplaced but I think Microsoft generates net income of about $37 million PER DAY. Therefore, for the net income they earn before lunch on a typical day, MSFT could acquire or do joint ventures with most if not all of the entire add-on community.THEN...a typical add-on aircraft that sells today for $25 could be sold via MSFT's product download website for, say $5.00 with MSFT keeping $2.50 and their add-on JV partners keeping $2.50 and those add-ons would sell in the hundreds of thousands of units for such a small price thereby dwarfing...I suspect...the current revenues of the add-on developers.The way things are now in the FS community is like Dell selling only PC's but not being willing to sell RAM sticks, printer ink, hard drives and scores of other products.Or, like Toyota not selling floor mats at their dealerships...in spite of the fact that Toyota has probably never manufactured a floor mat in-house in its history. You get the idea.My bet is that by integrating the add-on developers, MSFT would earn more from those products than from the FS itself.Just food for thought and IMHO.Regards,Jim

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JimA great post and I could not agree more.I am at the other end of the spectrum to you (Inventor)but if I put up a Business Plan/Brief Overveiw to Investors like ACES/FS is run they would tell me to P*ss Off.I have given up on downloading FS Freeware and Payware asmost of the files have not even been WinZipped correctly.Hardly gives one confidence to replace existing FS9 files.Tasmanet

I think you overestimate how many people bought FS9 versus the amount of people that buy the add-ons. We add-on buyers are a small (but vocal) minority.The business model you mention works better in existing online enviroments like X-Box Live. The PC world is to fragmented and divers to support it.I mentioned it in earlier discussions an XBox 360 version of FS-X with add-on distribution via X-Box Live would be a great thing (but we would lose the freeware addons in the proces)

 

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Don't forget the other big issue: Support costs.Most people who buy FS addons tend to be fairly "dedicated" FS users who generally -but not always- appreciate that you need to read the manual(s).Now just imagine "Walmart Bubba" as I call him, who has the attention span of a knat, trying to tackle the PMDG 747...Microsoft would have to build a whole new building in Redmond just to house the support staff needed to handle the thousands of calls daily in which they have to explain the nuances of Cost Indexes and Step Climbs to Joe Public.It would make for great comedy to be a fly on the wall in such a suppport center, but it's just too expensive... Too many headaches...-Bryan

Believe me, if it does not have a gun, a fishing pole, or hunting knife attached to it, Walmart Bubba is not going near it, unless, of course, it has something to do Nascar.However, your point is right on the money.RH

Yeah, but mayby Walmart Bubba's kid might.Regards, Carlos

>The business model you mention works better in existing online>enviroments like X-Box Live. I thought ACES mentioned quite awhile ago that they weregoing to a something like XBox live.

<>HEY!!!! I'm from Nashville...where, when we get divorced, we're still related!! But I actually know TWO people named Bubba and one named Goober...Honest! (-:Jim

<>Hi Boshar. Actually, the relatively small number of add-on buyers is sort of my point. Since simming is not, in general, a "sport of Kings", the price of add-ons is a huge factor in the buying decision.Under the economic "laws" of price elasticity, if you lower a price you will get a leveraged reaction in demand. Just look at the download stats on freeware vs. payware.While at, say, $5.00 for an add-on the profit margin PERCENTAGE would decline dramatically, the profit margin DOLLARS would skyrocket. (and we buy our pork chops with dollars, not percentages.Since WalMart has been mentioned in this thread, it is appropriate to point out that ol' Sam realized that if he could get his prices DOWN his profits would go UP substantially. I doubt he ever dreamed that his company would ever become larger that its top half dozen competitors COMBINED but that is what happened.I hold to the view that MSFT's election, so far, not to develop ancillary sales of "attachments" to its FS engine is, with all due respect, silly. The FS engine is the "razor" and the add-ons are the "blades."Regards,Jim

What is the margin on a $5 product and run rate in a niche community? Now compare that to other opportunities that appeal to the masses. Its just that simple. However, if every man on the planet used FS every day, then indeed it would be the razor, and the margin on the blades would be pretty darn attractive. :-)

Back in the SubLogic days I remeber buying a scenery add-on for SubLogic FS 2, it was for the Western US and there were several other areas available. I can't remember if Sublogic or another company released it, but I've often wondered why Microsoft never releases add-on's for FS. I've seen other expansion packs available for other Microsoft games but the only in-store add-ons I've seen are from other companies. It's an interesting line of thought having them create and maintain an in-house development team devoted solely to FS add-ons and all the inherent consequences. That may be the reason they don't do it. Consider marketing costs, resource considerations, the added level of support and, for a large company, it becomes a bit costly. Compare that to a one or two person 3rd party developer for FS who has no payroll or health insurance worries, can design and maintain a webpage for cheap, minimal marketing costs, word of mouth advertising and limited liability. Try suing a one man development team for 100 million dollars.Who knows though, maybe this time around we'll see some updates and add-ons from Aces, if I recollect correctly I believe I read somewhere that they may release new missions and other updates in the future, but don't quote me on that.Ian.

I'll bet Microsoft's business plan is intentional and that some form of absorption of 3rd party energy has been considered briefly and discarded.Good sales force is important to sales, 3rd party activity contributes to buzz, and buzz is important to assure continued sales. Its super sales promotional activity that bears no direct overhead cost. A dreamy situation for any sales organization.

Thanks for your views. My point is that add-ons are a "niche" because the prices the indie developers have to charge MAKE it a niche.The AVSIM file library shows that the following aircraft is the most downloaded so far this year.114058 Flight Simulator 2004 - Original Aircraft Fokker-100/70 Release v2 PROJECT Fokker-100/70 (PF10070). And that figure is only HERE at Avsim. I would guess that the model has sold substantially more than that throughout the community...and that is only so far this year!I am going to risk being shown wrong but will take a wild guess that one tenth of the above 114k downloads would be considered an outstanding achievement for a commercial add-on aircraft...if not a home run!But, $5.00 is roughly 20% of a typical retail price so here's the math.10,000 units x $25.00=250,000.00100,000 units x $500=500,000.00I have no clue what the typical profit MARGIN is for the indie developers but I do know that, unlike, automobile companies that have to BUILD a car every time they want to sell one, the INCREMENTAL profit margins on digital products is huge because you do NOT have to "build" each product for each sale....you just have to have your download server turned on. Add-on incremental margins are not 100%, of course, because there are certain costs associated with each sale but here is another WILD GUESS.I imagine the indie developers earn MAYBE a net profit of about 10% on their gross sales for any given add-on after all related costs. But on the kind of sales that could occur of their prices were reduced dramatically, would likely be 80%+ after break even sales have been achieved.If I was a great indie developer and an betting man, I would bet BIG TIME on the following.I would contact MSFT as well as all other commercial add-on vendors and tell then that I would develop a KILLER model which would be priced at $5.00 and let them keep 20% (obviously $1.00) and my WILD GUESS is that such a model would set all-time records for comparable products by a country MILE and would also generate all-time record profits for the developer.When HP stops selling ink cartridges, I will change my mind about all this but would remind all interested parties that the cost of a single ink cartridge is now about 20% (if not more) of the cost of a basic printer...which SHIPS with an ink cartridge so the ink/printer relationship is probably closer to 30%+. Ditto for wireless telephones and their batteries!!All just food for thought and thanks for all your comments.Regards,Jim

<>Maybe it was considered TOO briefly sorta like, with all due respect, their consideration of the...oh...search engine business...the virus protection business...the defrag business...you get the idea.But honestly, I'm not being critical here. I tend to be vastly less of a Microsoft critic than most.As far as the "energy" component you mentioned, MSFT and the other partners of the developers would essentially be marketing oriented which would involve litte more than posting the products for sale on their sites with a few banner adds.They would have ZERO development costs which must account for a huge percentage of total costs. And there certainly would be no "product liability" exposure. Very few lawsuits for virtual airplane crashes would ever be filed! :-)This is all pretty basic stuff. The undisputed bottom line is that A) there are VERY few of us here or at similar forum sites who have not spent CONSIDERABLY more for add-ons than we ever paid for the sim and B)there probably are examples, but I can't think of any at the moment where the developer of a product like MSFS makes no attempt to sell ancillary products that are used in conjunction with the basic "engine" to such a huge extent as is the case in the FS market.(Does MS even still make or sell joysticks? Probably they do but I have not read a post about them in a LONG time.)Again, no compaints from me. Just an interesting topic (hopefully)Regards,Jim

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