Virus spread animations:

HealthMap: Contributors from a number of academic institutions, including Harvard, the University of Washington, and Boston University, used the open mapping tool HealthMap to show the coronavirus spread. Just hit the green “animate spread” button in the top-right corner.

https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/

 

NBC: The network’s local New York affiliate published an  animation and detailed list of case counts sourced with data from Johns Hopkins.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/map-watch-the-coronavirus-cases-spread-across-the-world/2303276/

 

WawamuStats: This popular YouTube channel has published multiple time-lapsed map animations, updated periodically.

 

Came across an article this morning looking at the issue of how the dissemination of research is changing, and its affects on the current pandemic. A major point being that the media is reporting on yet-to-be reviewed papers, which is contributing to the confusion many are feeling about what is correct, and what isn't.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/a-lot-of-covid-19-papers-havent-been-peer-reviewed-reader-beware/

HiFlyer, from the WawamuStats can I assume 2,151,696 are still in a state of either dying or in recovery?  And based on the percentages so far 150,618 of those in recovery will die and over 2 million will survive?

One thing I haven't heard yet.  Are there any lasting effects of the virus among the survivors?

 

Noel

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by birdguy

8 minutes ago, birdguy said:

HiFlyer, from the WawamuStats can I assume 2,151,696 are still in a state of either dying or in recovery?  Nad based on the percentages so far 150,618 of them will dies and over 2 million will survive?

Noel

Your numbers seem correct, as long as it's kept in mind that this is a simple tally to date and not a model to be used predictively. There are just too many variables.

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

Are there any lasting effects of the virus among the survivors?

Yes, there can be.  Here's a roundup.  And here's another.

Many people will recover and be fine.  But for some, the long-term effects are serious and might even be life-changing.

There's a lot of middle ground between death on the one hand and full recovery on the other.

 

13 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

If you want to see a nice animated graph of how SARS-CoV-2 mutates as it travels

Great graphic - thanks for the link! Unfortunately I can't get the animation to play.  Maybe a login is needed.  Still really impressive, even in static form.

@HiFlyer - thanks for those links as well. 

There's some really good work being done on data visualization.

1 hour ago, goates said:

Came across an article this morning looking at the issue of how the dissemination of research is changing, and its affects on the current pandemic. A major point being that the media is reporting on yet-to-be reviewed papers, which is contributing to the confusion many are feeling about what is correct, and what isn't.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/a-lot-of-covid-19-papers-havent-been-peer-reviewed-reader-beware/

It's a real problem.  On the one hand, it's good to get findings out in the open quickly and not bog them down in a months-long review process (this is a trend that started back in early HIV days, and the move to earlier publication was mostly beneficial).  But they're being reported on as though they were conclusive, when they're not.  Some not-fully-baked work, like that Santa Clara study, has gotten into the wild that way. It's hard for newsrooms - they're understaffed thanks to the industry's financial and economic decline, so like a lot of businesses they're doing too much work with too few people.  But in spite of that they really need to try to up their game.

Back to economic issues - this interview with Paul Romer is really worth reading.  He's a Nobel Prize-winning economist who gives a full airing to the economic devastation.  His remedy is a comprehensive testing program, which he describes as the only thing that will restore confidence - which in turn makes the costs worthwhile.

Highly recommended.

41 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

Great graphic - thanks for the link! Unfortunately I can't get the animation to play.  Maybe a login is needed.  Still really impressive, even in static form.

It was running really slow earlier today, might want to try it a little later.

Martin

15 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

might want to try it a little later.

My mistake - I was looking at the phylogeny chart and hadn't scrolled down to the map.

That's really remarkable.

Edward Tufte would approve.

 

14 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

Edward Tufte would approve.

Yes he would, the data behind this is also pretty impressive. 

Martin

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

Well, I feel like I need to step in here and put things in perspective.

The animation posted on page 105 is like a lot of graphs - they can be made to show whatever you want to show by manipulating the scale.  This has been done with other so-called "crises" as well.  Someone who is uneducated in reading graphs, or who doesn't know how to use critical thinking, will see this and probably be alarmed by it.

1. The graph is not population adjusted.  The United States has 7 times the population of Spain, 5.5 times the population of Italy, etc. etc.

2. 1.2 million infected people in the U.S. is 0.36% of the total population.  That's about 1 out of 300 people.

3. Again, nifty little graphs and animations like this are only showing the number of cases, not the number of deaths.  If I made an animation like this showing Influenza cases for every country it would be even more frightening. 

Some will think that I'm downplaying the severity of Covid-19 and saying it's no big deal - I'm not.  I certainly do not want to contract it.  However, I also don't believe, based on multiple reports and studies, that it is so deadly that everyone has to stay hunkered down in their homes and be afraid, again with the exception of the elderly and already ill.

I have seen several videos from nurses and doctors who claim that they are being ordered by management to label the cause of death Covid-19 even if the person died of a heart attack, for example, but had Covid-19 symptoms.

Moreover, hospitals are paid more by Medicare if the diagnosis is Covid-19 related as opposed to something else.  This creates a moral hazard, and I don't put it past greedy hospitals and health insurance companies to take advantage of something like this.  It also artificially inflates the Covid-19 numbers.

I don't know who the heck to trust anymore.

Dave

35 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

I don't know who the heck to trust anymore.

The neat thing about science is, we'll find out who's right.

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Moreover, hospitals are paid more by Medicare if the diagnosis is Covid-19 related as opposed to something else

Hospitals have a profound disincentive for “upcoding,” because it can and will result in criminal or civil liabilities, and be susceptible to being kicked out of the Medicare program, unlikely they would take that risk. Are there a few, maybe!

Regarding the animated bar graph on page 105, I think you are reading to much into it, it is only showing the percent each country contributes to the total world cases of COVID-19 that have been determined, that's the only thing I read from it.  I do agree it is easy to miss represent data using visuals but I don't feel that bar chart is one of them.  

Martin

Edited May 6, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

2 hours ago, Alan_A said:

The neat thing about science is, we'll find out who's right.

Meanwhile: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-abound-real.html