I have a small business in Wellington but we will get through it. We will not open until the lockdown is over so that will be 50 days or more with our business shut. My situation was better than most as we were loan free before this happened, and had a good bank balance. The shutdown means we are bleeding cash to pay for everything but staff is payed and rent is payed and everything else. so we will come out the other end. It is true that small business is the largest employers in New Zealand and many won't come out the other end.

Also New Zealand had its biggest year in tourism in the history of the nation last year and that is now at ZERO, and will be for a long time, that is an entire industry lost. Some of those resorts in the South Island are going to become abandoned like the Catskills Hotels did in the 80s, as soon as mold gets into those buildings they will be a write off 

Edited May 4, 20206 yr by Matthew Kane

The reality is that we don't know what the reality is. I haven't met anyone yet who has a true perspective on the virus, I include myself.

Nobody knows how many have had it, have it or have died from it although our guesses for the last group are probably more accurate........ The virus is a threat but we simply do not have the figures to establish how much of a threat it is. Without blanket testing the numbers are unknown.

Given the human tendency (necessary instinct) to try and make educated guesses based on what info we have we turn to the media and speculate. In the UK (and probably elsewhere) the press operate the "if it bleeds it leads"  strategy. They know that scary stories sell papers. Loads of scaremongering going on, when it comes to the virus many in the population are scared beyond rational thought. 

In the UK it seems we have been on some sort of cliff edge for many years. Fears and divisions about terrorism, immigration, Brexit have all taken their toll. Chronic anxiety is very real thing individually and collectively. These fears and divisions have been magnified by the media because of increased competition and the "if it bleeds it leads" response. Many politicians exaggerate or understate the threats to suit their own agendas.......You might say that "the press and politicians have always done this" but the level to which they do it has increased massively in recent years.

Certainly in the UK none of the public can establish what the facts are myself included. Add to that the other anxieties experienced in the lead up to the pandemic. The virus feels like the final straw.  No one can get a handle on it. It could be that our reaction to the current situation is a bigger threat than the virus itself.

Not knowing is scary.


 

Edited May 4, 20206 yr by GaryK

5 hours ago, Alan_A said:

This is a point that isn't getting enough attention.  The US economy is 70 percent consumer-driven. It runs on consumer confidence.  People who don't feel confident won't spend, no matter how many workers are marched into retail stores and restaurants.  You can't stimulate your way out of a demand crisis.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/02/us/georgia-restaurant-owners-closed-statement/index.html

Good link...thanks.

8 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

"Animals all over the world live full and rich lives without dow jones"

However, as an animal don't get weak or sick. The good of the species must prevail. Just providing this as a counterpoint.

https://www.quora.com/How-do-certain-species-of-animals-treat-injured-or-impaired-members-of-their-social-group

Regarding Noel's post, the only parasites in the human race are the truly despicable examples; age makes no difference there. Sorry if I've got the wrong idea, but I felt that Noel was comparing himself to a parasite for purely reasons of economy. Older people can regale us with stories of their life experiences and stories are good for the soul IMHO. "Well, back in my day.." stories can be hilarious, sad or truly terrifying, but are valued nonetheless. An economy without such frivolities would possibly be quite efficient, but I don't think that humans operate on emotionless efficiency.

Then again our 1st world societies were pretty close to that already prior to the chaos with "everyone" having their heads in their phones whilst out and about..

4 hours ago, GaryK said:

The reality is that we don't know what the reality is. I haven't met anyone yet who has a true perspective on the virus, I include myself.

I don't know if this is a true perspective or not but I look at virus as an enemy that want's to destroy our economy.

This debate we are having reflects the attitudes, life experiences, education, professions, generations, beliefs and value systems of the participants.

Having had 27 years of military life I look at many of the attitudes here as:

Let the enemy have this hill, defending it will cost lives.

Let's not bomb Dresden, Tokyo or Hiroshima because it will cause lives.

Let's not invade Normandy or try to take Iwo Jima because it will cause lives.

Every war takes lives.  

We are at war with the virus.  While trying to defeat it we must concurrently defend our economy even if it does cost some lives.  I look at the mass closings of businesses as surrendering.  We can open restaurants seating people at every other booth and every other table.  We can open theaters blocking off seats so pairs of seats have six foot separation.  

While theaters and restaurants are closed grocery stores are open.  Hardware stores are open.  Gas stations and convenience stores are open.  Why not open everything.

Some of you want to shut down everything until the virus is gone no matter what happens to the economy.  But how many more lives will be taken if we degenerate to a subsistence life style while waiting for the economy to rebuild itself?  What about the mom and pop stores and small businesses that won't survive this?  What will the owners and employees have to look forward to when this is over?  And at what cost?

Noel

1 hour ago, HighBypass said:

Older people can regale us with stories of their life experiences and stories are good for the soul IMHO. "Well, back in my day.." stories can be hilarious, sad or truly terrifying, but are valued nonetheless.

Exactly while I wrote over 25 essays of my boyhood experiences for my grandchildren to read.  I wanted them to know what life was like for me when I was that age.

I prefaced the collection of essays with this, "...I did things you will never do, and you will do things I never dreamed of..."

Noel

Noel

"We" are not at war and there is no parallel between what armies do at the behest of their leaders and what should be done in the face of a pandemic. If it was a war, no doubt we would be joining in with everyone else in a massive effort to support those who are fighting. The very best that most of us can do in this circumstance is to try to do nothing that adds to the burden imposed on those who are fighting.  What most of us are doing is indeed nothing, as we have been told to do and we are doing this to protect ourselves, protect everyone else and most importantly in the hope that in doing this, the spread of the virus will be slowed enough to allow time for there to be a permanent solution, if indeed there is one. If that makes us the weak and feeble that have been referred to in some many posts, then so be it. Until someone who actually knows the answer gives us the answer, we have little choice.

Each and every person who decides that they will instead do as they wish is taking a step towards undoing the good done by the tens of millions of those who are doing the same as us, often for them at great financial and personal cost. Yes, I know that New Mexico is different from everywhere else, as are no doubt all the people who live there, but I hope that you do not have to find out that in fact, they are not as different as you seem to think.

Edited May 4, 20206 yr by Reader

42 minutes ago, birdguy said:

I don't know if this is a true perspective or not but I look at virus as an enemy that want's to destroy our economy.

This debate we are having reflects the attitudes, life experiences, education, professions, generations, beliefs and value systems of the participants.

Having had 27 years of military life I look at many of the attitudes here as:

Let the enemy have this hill, defending it will cost lives.

Let's not bomb Dresden, Tokyo or Hiroshima because it will cause lives.

Let's not invade Normandy or try to take Iwo Jima because it will cause lives.

Every war takes lives.  

We are at war with the virus.  While trying to defeat it we must concurrently defend our economy even if it does cost some lives.  I look at the mass closings of businesses as surrendering.  We can open restaurants seating people at every other booth and every other table.  We can open theaters blocking off seats so pairs of seats have six foot separation.  

While theaters and restaurants are closed grocery stores are open.  Hardware stores are open.  Gas stations and convenience stores are open.  Why not open everything.

Some of you want to shut down everything until the virus is gone no matter what happens to the economy.  But how many more lives will be taken if we degenerate to a subsistence life style while waiting for the economy to rebuild itself?  What about the mom and pop stores and small businesses that won't survive this?  What will the owners and employees have to look forward to when this is over?  And at what cost?

Noel

The virus doesn’t want to do anything. It just does what it is coded to do. What you propose just makes it easier for it to do what it does. It couldn’t care less whether you think you are surrender or not or sticking a middle finger at it.

Nobody here wants to shut down the economy. But until everybody, including those in New Mexico, are willing to wear a mask and the government is willing to put the resources into adequate testing and supply of masks, then any reopening will only serve to keep the virus propagating.

What you don’t understand is that it depends on your behavior, to determine whether we can reopen. Whether you wear a mask. Whether you had stayed home. Whether the government got enough tests and masks. All indications are that the people of this country are not ready to reopen. Arguing to reopen before the virus can be kept in check will only increase our cost. That is the answer to what cost.

Edited May 4, 20206 yr by KevinAu

words have become pointless.

death shall be the teacher.

sad but true.

besides, some are looking for death as a positive thing so... and apparently not just their own.  its misguided and unnecessary as there are better ways.

Edited May 4, 20206 yr by sightseer

101 pages into this we have all hardened our stances and no minds have been changed.  It's pointless to continue.  I'm going into the lurking mode to see how long the redundancy will continue.

Noel

10 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

No, animals generally kill other animals, outside their own species. For food. We are the ones that so easily find reasons to kill each other in such huge numbers.

There are plenty of examples in nature of animals that maim or kill their own for dominance in their group, to defend against others encroaching on their territory, to take food from others etc.  When I refer to base animal instinct, I'm not referring to people pushing each other over a package of TP in the grocery store...no, think a group of armed men kicking down your door and taking what they need to feed themselves or their families.

10 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

Well, that gets to an important point of difference in perspective. I believe the world economy is in the most danger if you can't convince people they are safe out there

If personal safety has become the only driver of modern human behavior, then we're doomed anyway.  People take risks to earn a living every day...the commercial fisherman, the ironworkers that build high-rise buildings, police officers, firefighters, military, etc.  The day is fast approaching that government is not going to be able to pay a third or more of the population to stay home, and at that point those people will be forced to make some uncomfortable choices.  A sizeable part of the population has been getting up to go to work every day through all this anyway, and those people aren't dying in large numbers.  Here in Colorado over half of our fatalities are over 80 years old...many of those never left their assisted living facilities or nursing homes.

10 hours ago, Alan_A said:

One last thing for tonight - it's going to seem confrontational but I don't mean it that way, it's more of a thought experiment.  I hear several of you saying that you accept the risk of death - you've lived long lives, and you're willing to sacrifice yours if need be for the greater good, maybe not eagerly, but if that's what it takes for an economic restart. I know you mean it and I don't want to undercut it. 

But at the same time I'm wondering - is your own death the worst you can suffer?  We're all able to contemplate our own deaths and come to terms with them in various ways. 

In my thought experiment, you're not the one that dies.  The person that dies is someone close to you, someone you really care about.  Your spouse?  Your child?  Your parent?  A dear friend?  A teacher or coach?  A spiritual leader or mentor?  Name names.  Who's the person you're going to pick to sacrifice for the good of the economy or for your sense of what risks ought to be acceptable?  Remember, you're going to have to live on, without this person, and you're going to have to conclude that that daily or hourly sense of loss was worth it in terms of the other things you value. Was it?

Maybe you can do that - and if you can, it says to me that you've got real, deeply held convictions. 

I'd just like to know if this scenario changes anything for you.

I guess every police officer and military member's spouse must have the same angst when their loved one suits up and heads out into a dangerous world.  In good times we can get away with paying those few brave souls to take the risks for us...in times like these we're all going to have to accept some risk. 

A hundred years ago we had the Spanish Flu pandemic, and then 10 years later we had the First Great Depression.  Which exacted the worse toll in terms of lost lives and misery?  In my thought experiment I wonder who do I pick to suffer and/or sacrifice because we were too frightened by a tenth of a percent mortality risk to stand up and keep the walls from falling in on us.

It seems that some of the folks here think that economics don't matter...that economic collapse doesn't have a price in lives.  I think we're going to see that idea refuted in real terms in six months or so when large parts of northeastern Africa are in the grips of an epic famine due to drought and locust pestilence, and with the rest of the world's nations struggling to take care of their own, the help needed to keep millions from starving there will not be coming. 

Numbers for today:

A revised CDC estimate projects that by June 1 there will be 200,000 cases per day, up from the current level of 25,000, and 3,000 deaths per day, up from the current total of 1,750.

Here's a summary of the findings (it's currently the first item on the New York Times update page but might scroll down later).

Here's a link to a PDF of the full CDC report, which is quite data-rich, and worth a look.

3 minutes ago, w6kd said:

It seems that some of the folks here think that economics don't matter...that economic collapse doesn't have a price in lives.

That may be true of some of the folks here.  Having spent 30 years of my life advising businesses and trying to make them more competitive - my clients have included AT&T, IBM, Bertelsmann AG, KPMG, Ernst & Young, The Boston Consulting Group and The Wall Street Journal - I'm not one of them.

This is a complex problem.  Binaries and straw men don't really capture it.

33 minutes ago, birdguy said:

101 pages into this we have all hardened our stances and no minds have been changed.  It's pointless to continue.  I'm going into the lurking mode to see how long the redundancy will continue.

Noel

101 pages into this and you have not moved an inch. Good luck to you and those who you care about.

I will also withdraw, the veil over the politics is far too thin.

Edited May 4, 20206 yr by Reader