4 hours ago, KevinAu said:

If you think we should just reopen, no matter what, then you’re going to be pretty disappointed because you’ll get about a month of normal and then the infections will slam the hospitals again and everything will come crashing down again and nobody will venture out with or without an order.

You quote me and then write this. 

I never said to reopen no matter what.  Reopening has to be done gradually, in phases, and the measures and restrictions tailored to particular areas.

Dave

42 minutes ago, w6kd said:

Trying to keep finger-pointing, blame games, defense of and/or bashing of governments out of this, myself included. 

That works for me. 😎

57 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

Here's what I found regarding his credentials:

And those are decent credentials. 

I'd still favor a virologist over a biostatistician, but he can't be dismissed out of hand.

Digging into it a bit more, the herd immunity question is really a two-part question.  The first part is, could it work?  The answer is, possibly - though there are still some things we don't know about immunity (does a first exposure makes you immune?  It generally does but we don't yet know in this case).

The second question is, should we do it?  There, the answer is less clear. As a rule, the way to achieve herd immunity is with something controlled and controllable, like a vaccine.  It's a whole different gamble to unleash a "wild" pathogen - much less predictable.

I came across this article, which gives a pretty good airing to both sides.

 

Edited May 2, 20206 yr by Alan_A

A different point of view regarding the "stay at home" paradigm. I believe that this has been principally aimed at keeping our health care facilities above water...

Until very recently, every ICU bed in the New York area was filled, and nearly all - if not quite all - mechanical ventilators were in use. 

A question then arises in my mind as a result of this over-saturation of medical resources. How many people died from causes other than Covid-19 because of no empty ICU beds?

26 minutes ago, n4gix said:

A different point of view regarding the "stay at home" paradigm. I believe that this has been principally aimed at keeping our health care facilities above water...

Until very recently, every ICU bed in the New York area was filled, and nearly all - if not quite all - mechanical ventilators were in use. 

A question then arises in my mind as a result of this over-saturation of medical resources. How many people died from causes other than Covid-19 because of no empty ICU beds?

I think that is the crux of the matter.. Our healthcare systems (Facilities, Staff, Equipment etc) are running at 105% ultilization in normal times.. We have waitlists for Hip and Knee replacements and so on where I live.  If we allow our healthcare systems to be overrun by a raging epidemic, all kinds of avoidable mayhem will ensue.. So keeping that from happening should be everyones number one priority.. even though the economic and social costs are significant.

Edited May 2, 20206 yr by Bert Pieke

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

You quote me and then write this. 

I never said to reopen no matter what.  Reopening has to be done gradually, in phases, and the measures and restrictions tailored to particular areas.

Dave

Then we’re agreed.

37 minutes ago, n4gix said:

A different point of view regarding the "stay at home" paradigm. I believe that this has been principally aimed at keeping our health care facilities above water...

Until very recently, every ICU bed in the New York area was filled, and nearly all - if not quite all - mechanical ventilators were in use. 

A question then arises in my mind as a result of this over-saturation of medical resources. How many people died from causes other than Covid-19 because of no empty ICU beds?

Absolutely true - "flattening the curve" was all about hospital capacity.  One of the side effects is that infections will go on much longer. The curve-flattening doesn't get rid of the pool of infections, it just slows down the pace.

But it looks like the flattening has succeeded so far - places to New York got to the limit but not over it.

The question of people dying from other causes is getting a serious look now - as part of the investigation into excess deaths.  Many, probably most of them are going to turn out to be unreported covid, but people delaying treatment, or heart attack patients not being transported fast enough, or people not getting ICU beds, all of that is also part of the picture.

The CDC reports that the total number of Covid-19 deaths is 37,000 as of May 1, not the 60,000+ the media has been reporting.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Dave

5 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

not the 60,000+ the media has been reporting.

"The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods". 

Martin

2 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

"The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods". 

Martin

Then why has the media been reporting 50,000, and now 60,000+ deaths?

Where are they getting those numbers if all the results aren't in?

Dave

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by dave2013

15 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

hen why has the media been reporting 50,000, and now 60,000+ deaths?

They use a combination of data sources: WHO, ECDC, NHC, DXY, 1point3acres, Worldmeters info, BNO, the COVID Tracking Project, testing and hospitalizations data, state and national. Provisional deaths are never used as a final count, that's why they are called provisional. I suspect they will never really know the exact number of deaths, there is always some guess work involved.

Most news outlets look like they are primarily using the data from John Hopkins CSSE and these are the data sources they have listed. 

Martin

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

And now for something completely different:

Stuck at home, I came across a series of neural-network enhanced and upscaled period piece videos. https://youtu.be/hZ1OgQL9_Cw

They are kind of like a time machine, looking back into the day-to-day of other eras, and in the midst of the current pandemic, I was soon thinking about about how helpless those people would have been against something like covid, and how fragile civilization can seem when something like this comes along.

What must have been the human experience in a time when chances for a cure were almost non-existent, and the only real response was hope and prayer?

Numbers are nice, but what must it have felt like back then? How did people live, and what did they think as they struggled just like us to continue their lives and survive. I went looking, and amongst other things, found this, which some may or may not find as interesting as I did: https://theconversation.com/diary-of-samuel-pepys-shows-how-life-under-the-bubonic-plague-mirrored-todays-pandemic-136222

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

4 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

which some may or may not find as interesting

If you like this I would highly recommend "The Plague" by Albert Camus it's a classic!

Martin

33 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

The CDC reports that the total number of Covid-19 deaths is 37,000 as of May 1, not the 60,000+ the media has been reporting.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Dave

No, that's a provisional death count based on death certificates being entered into the system.  And it's only current through April 25. The linked page states:

 

Quote

 

Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of May 1, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated periodically. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

The provisional data presented on this page include the weekly provisional count of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19, deaths from all causes and percent of expected deaths (i.e., number of deaths received over number of deaths expected based on data from previous years), pneumonia deaths (excluding pneumonia deaths involving influenza), pneumonia deaths involving COVID-19, influenza deaths, and deaths involving pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19; (a) by week ending date and (b) by specific jurisdictions.

 

Emphases mine.

And here are the technical notes from the bottom of the page - emphases in the notes are in the original:

Quote

 

Understanding the Numbers: Provisional Death Counts and COVID-19

Provisional death counts deliver our most comprehensive picture of lives lost to COVID-19. These estimates are based on death certificates, which are the most reliable source of data and contain information not available anywhere else, including comorbid conditions, race and ethnicity, and place of death.

How it works

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) uses incoming data from death certificates to produce provisional COVID-19 death counts. These include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. COVID-19 deaths are identified using a new ICD–10 code. When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death – or when it is listed as a “probable” or “presumed” cause — the death is coded as U07.1. This can include cases with or without laboratory confirmation.

Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

Things to know about the data

Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as additional records are received and processed. Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years. Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions report deaths on a daily basis, while others report deaths weekly or monthly. In addition, vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities.

For more detailed technical information, visit the Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Technical Notes page.

 

 

More detail in this article on why this is not a downward revision.

In fact, analysis of excess deaths continues and will likely result in a significant upward revision in the figures.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/?arc404=true

In case that article isn't accessible, here's the lead:

 

Quote

 

The United States recorded an estimated 37,100 excess deaths as the novel coronavirus spread across the country in March and the first two weeks of April, nearly 13,500 more than are now attributed to covid-19 for that same period, according to an analysis of federal data conducted for The Washington Post by a research team led by the Yale School of Public Health.

The Yale team’s analysis suggests that the number of excess deaths accelerated as the pandemic took hold. There were 16,600 estimated excess deaths just in the week of April 5 to April 11, compared with 20,500 over the prior five weeks.

 

The fact that the excess estimate is also approximately 37,000 is probably causing some confusion.

Unfortunately, there's no good news to be had here.

EDIT: Sorry, I see the debate was going ahead while I was jamming this together.  Hope it adds something to the discussion.

 

 

Edited May 3, 20206 yr by Alan_A

8 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

If you like this I would highly recommend "The Plague" by Albert Camus it's a classic!

And you can also add Defoe's Journal of the Plague Year.