I was speaking to a healthcare worker today, still wistfully exploring the possibility of volunteering She also said don't endanger my family, so I guess that's (logically) that.

During the conversation, regarding covid in general and attitudes of people protesting the lockdown, she pointed me at a story I had not heard about regarding a gent named Rudy Gobert who was so dismissive of covid, that he thought it would be a fine joke at a press conference to show his superior disdain by rubbing his hands across the recording equipment as he left.

Right after that, he was diagnosed with covid, and had to apologize profusely. He's now making public service messages, and social media is not too happy with him.

What I am left with, seeing things like this, is my own continuing lack of understanding, of not only the impulse to play chicken with the virus, but also the cooresponding willingness to ignore peril placed upon others by the consequences of one's actions. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/us/rudy-gobert-coronavirus-nba-message-trnd/index.html

 

Edited April 28, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

39 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

The George W. Bush administration did an excellent job of addressing HIV in Africa.  Details here about how that program worked.

Interesting you mention this, DHAPP under PEPFAR was one of our Departments and Dr. Richard Shaffer (a good friend) was the head of the DoD HIV/AIDS Prevention Program at the Naval Health Research Center, San Diego which was the DoD Executive Agent for the technical assistance, management, and administrative support of the global HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment for foreign militaries from 2001 until it transitioned to Defense Health Agency in 2014. 

Was always interesting sitting in on the board room meetings listening to the many issues that encompass a Public Health program of this magnitude.

Here is when it transitioned. It was and still is a very effective program, one of the success stories!

https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=101124

Martin

 

Edited April 28, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

3 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

It was and still is a very effective program, one of the success stories!

That's great to know - glad to hear it's still out there and still going strong.

Let me see if I can find another simile to answer all of you who take issue with my lack of concern.  But let me preface that with if I lived where you live I would be concerned and I would take more precautions.

I hate driving back east because I have to be more alert and more careful than I do here.  The last time I drove to South Carolina I was terrified driving through Nashville, everyone driving about 65 or 70 in a 55 zone.

Well out here I don't have to be more alert or careful.  Going west on Highway 380 it is four lane divided all the way to Ruidoso, 70 miles away.  In that 70 miles I doubt I will see 100 cars going the opposite way or a dozen cars going my way with a 70mph speed limited.  Going east the same thing except it's 90 miles to Tatum.  Going North on Highway 285 it's still 4 lane divided, speed limit 70mph, all the way to Vaugn 98 miles away.  South to Artesia it's only 38 miles and twice as much traffic but the speed limit I still 70.

Now I wouldn't tell you who live in the congested metropolitan areas the crowded east to follow my driving habits.  Nor would you be telling me how to drive based on the driving restrictions and habits where you live.

It's the same with COVID-19 here.  Since this pandemic started 0.04% of the population in Roswell have contracted the disease.  Until it starts ramping up I don't intend to do what you do.  I'm not telling you to do what I do I just wonder why you think I am endangering the country because I don't see the need to wear a mask at this time based on the situation on the ground here.

The United States is vast geographic and climate diverse country.  West of Denver, across the continental divide is very sparsly populated high plateau that extends a thousand miles to California.  The same for the desert southwest extending all the way into West Texas.  Look at the coronavirus map and except for the metropolitan areas and the Navajo Nation of New Mexico, Utah, and Arizona we have relatively few cases.  So why should we emulated the Eastern Seaboard or Italy or Great Britain?  Many of us do, but most of us do not.  I live 200 miles from the nearest metropolitan area...Albuquerque and 500 miles from both Dallas and Phoenix.

My brother is in a permanent care facility which is under lockdown.  From time to time he has doctor appointments and I have to meet them there.  Last week it was at a cancer clinic.  While all of the medical staff were wearing masks less than half of the patients in the waiting room were.  The receptionists were wearing masks under their chins when they talked to people (which defeats the purpose of a mask) because of the difficulty of understanding what people are saying beneath those masks.  Especially deaf people who depend on lip reading.  And nobody handed out masks or told us to wear masks.  It's suggested but purely voluntary.  The chairs in the waiting room are 6 feet apart in the cancer clinic but they were not in my cardiologist's office waiting room.

Our nation is too big and geographically diverse for a one-size-fits all.  Which is why the states are better judges of what should be done in each state than the federal government.

Noel

Some awesome residents of Pierre, South Dakota just organized a parade that went by the Governor's mansion to thank her for not shutting down the State and ruining its economy.  There were hundreds of cars which is a lot in Pierre.  The governor there ordered nonessential businesses to allow employees to work from home, placed a limit on social gatherings, required restaurants to offer take-out options only, and instructed people over the age of 60 and other vulnerable groups to take extreme precautions throughout the epidemic.  South Dakota is a relatively sparsely populated State and so didn't need to take the extreme measures that other more populated States and cities have had to take.

A couple of doctors held a press conference in California recently in which they say that Covid-19 is roughly as dangerous as the flu.  They are generally critical of the exaggerated response.  Youtube recently removed the video but I just found it there so some good folks have found a way around the Orwellian censorship.

Covid-19 is not nearly as deadly as many are making it out to be.  If you're 80+ years old or have heart disease, diabetes, compromised immune system, or other underlying health problems then, yes, it can be deadly.  Well, you know what?  A lot of things can be deadly for folks that meet those criteria.

The number of deaths per day in Sweden has been dropping steadily for almost 2 weeks.  Cases continue to increase, but deaths and ICU hospitalizations per day have been dropping.  They have implemented some reasonable restrictions, but no lockdown.  Interesting.

This is not worth destroying the economy over.  Period.

Dave

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by dave2013

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

This is not worth destroying the economy over.  Period.

Dave

 

I’m curious what number expected death toll would be worth taking measures.

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

A couple of doctors held a press conference in California recently in which they say that Covid-19 is roughly as dangerous as the flu.  They are generally critical of the exaggerated response.  Youtube recently removed the video but I just found it there so some good folks have found a way around the Orwellian censorship.

"A couple of doctors" is pretty much the way to describe them.  Doctors Erikson and Massihi are the owners of Acclerated Urgent Care.  They have no background or qualifications in public health.  They started from a conclusion and massaged their statistics to come out the way they want.

Before you start talking about "Orwellian censorship," read this.
 

Quote

 

Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi, who own urgent care centers in the region, had called a press conference to release their conclusions about the results of 5,213 COVID-19 tests they had conducted at their centers and testing site. They claimed the results showed that the virus had spread further in the area, undetected, and thus wasn’t all that dangerous.

But public health experts were quick to debunk the doctors’ findings as misguided and riddled with statistical errors — and an example of the kind of misleading information they are forced to waste precious time disputing.

The doctors should never have assumed that the patients they tested — who came for walk-in COVID-19 tests or who sought urgent care for symptoms they experienced in the middle of a pandemic — are representative of the general population, said Dr. Carl Bergstrom, a University of Washington biologist who specializes in infectious disease modeling. He likened their extrapolations to “estimating the average height of Americans from the players on an NBA court.” And most credible studies of COVID-19 death rates in reality are far higher than the ones the doctors presented. 

“They’ve used methods that are ludicrous to get results that are completely implausible,” Bergstrom said. 

Still, the early media coverage went viral. A local television report on the Bakersfield doctors’ press conference garnered more than 4.3 million views on YouTube. Elon Musk, the Tesla founder who wants to reopen his Fremont manufacturing plant this week, praised the doctors to his 33 million-plus Twitter followers. Tonight, the doctors are to get a conservative national audience for their views on Fox News, appearing on Laura Ingraham’s show.

In a rare statement late today, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared they “emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.”

The doctors had set up Bakersfield’s only private walk-in COVID-19 testing site and performed about half of all tests conducted in the area. They did not respond to a CalMatters request for comment today.

Misinformation thrives in a pandemic, and public health officials in California and elsewhere just can’t keep up.

“This pandemic has been so severely politicized in this country that evidence, no matter how poor, gets amplified enormously if it benefits one side or another,” said Bergstrom, who also was one of the first experts to critique the doctors’ study on Twitter. “We always hoped this crisis wouldn’t come, but that if it did we’d all be in this together. That’s been a huge surprise for all of us doing infectious disease epidemiology. It’s amazing to have to deal with this misinformation that’s being spread around for political purposes and the ways that interferes with adequate public health response.”

 

 

And here, for more "Orwellian censorship," you can read the joint statement by the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine:

 

Quote

 

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.

COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making.

 

Boy, those are some really bad Orwellian censors, those scientists and doctors with their insistence on evidence and proof and sound methodology.

Enemies of freedom, to be sure.

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by Alan_A

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Covid-19 is not nearly as deadly as many are making it out to be.  If you're 80+ years old or have heart disease, diabetes, compromised immune system, or other underlying health problems then, yes, it can be deadly.  Well, you know what?  A lot of things can be deadly for folks that meet those criteria.

That would be another popular television talking point.

But then there's this.

And there's this.

And there's this.

And of course all the stroke victims.

Just like the flu, right?

 

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

The number of deaths per day in Sweden has been dropping steadily for almost 2 weeks.  Cases continue to increase, but deaths and ICU hospitalizations per day have been dropping.  They have implemented some reasonable restrictions, but no lockdown.  Interesting.

Germany is also interesting.

Quote

 

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate edges higher after lockdown measures eased

Germany’s coronavirus infection rate has reportedly edged up, prompting the head of the country’s infectious diseases institute to urge people to stay at home as much as possible amid a relaxation of lockdown measures.

Germany’s virus reproduction rate, called the “R” rate or value, is now at 1.0 in Germany, according to Lothar Wieler, the president of the Robert Koch Institute, having risen from 0.7 earlier this month.

 

The “R” rate means that, on average, every one person with the virus infects one other individual. Keeping this rate below 1.0 is an aim during the coronavirus pandemic.

“The number should stay below one, that is the big goal,” Wieler told a news conference Tuesday, Reuters reported.

“The further it is below one, the more secure we can feel, the more leeway we have, but there are other numbers that are also important,” he said, adding that these included the number of cases per day, and testing capacity.

Wieler urged Germans to maintain rigorous social distancing despite a slight easing of restrictions on public life.

“Against the background of the easing (of restrictions), let’s ensure we can continue to defend this success we have achieved together,” he said. “We don’t want the number of cases to rise again.”

 

“Let’s, insofar as is possible, stay at home, let’s stick to the reduced contact.”

CNBC has asked the institute for further comment on the latest transmission data.

 

 

Worth noting also that in the U.S., there's broad support for continued restrictions.
 

Quote

 

An overwhelming majority of Americans say that stay-at-home orders issued throughout the U.S. in response to the coronavirus outbreak should remain in place until health experts say it is safe to reopen, according to a new poll.

The Reuters-Ipsos survey released Tuesday found that 72 percent of Americans support quarantine measures remaining in effect until "doctors and public health officials say it is safe." That includes 55 percent of Republicans, 88 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents.

 

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by Alan_A

In all, it's good to discuss (and debate) all the goals and interests that we - as individuals and society - are trying to balance.

But please bring sound findings and sound data.

5 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

In all, it's good to discuss (and debate) all the goals and interests that we - as individuals and society - are trying to balance.

But please bring sound findings and sound data.

I think the original quotation covering this was;

Quote

Every man has the right to an opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts. Nor, above all, to persist in errors as to facts.

 

9 hours ago, birdguy said:

Our nation is too big and geographically diverse for a one-size-fits all.  Which is why the states are better judges of what should be done in each state than the federal government.

Noel

Actually, the most effective way to stop a pandemic is for the entire world to take the same actions at the same time. Effectiveness is whittled away as each country, state, county, city, that takes its own action or not at its own time. The very phrase ‘pan’ in pandemic means ‘all’. Unless the response is altogether, there will continuously be squirters that escape out the back to continue the infection somewhere else that is less restrictive. You just prolong the pandemic and the economic impact by allowing differing responses. Your approach only serves to keep it in the news longer and cost the economy more.

Kevin. there is a great deal of similarity between COVID-19 and influenza.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

It says an average of 8% of the population are stricken with flu every year.  That's 24 million Americans.  Between 8,000 and 20,000 die of the flu each year.  Mostly old people and those with underlying conditions.  But I suppose that with the current mindset that people who die of COVID-19 are more important than those who die of the flu.

So why don't we use the authoritarian crackdown on flue that you propose we all take regarding COVIS-19?  I think 'pan' would be appropriate if 24,000,000 Americans are stricken with it every flue season.  And there are your 'squirters' who don't wear masks and spread the flu in public places.  It is spread the same way COVID-19 is spread.

Telling people in areas that have a very low incidence of COVID-19,in fractions of a percent, to wear masks is like telling someone crossing the Sahara to wear a life jacket because there are ponds they might fall into in the oases. 

If the number of cases begins to rise sharply I will wear a mask.  But with only 22 people out of 60,000 that have been stricken it is not warranted at this time in this place. 

Noel

19 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Kevin. there is a great deal of similarity between COVID-19 and influenza.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm

It says an average of 8% of the population are stricken with flu every year.  That's 24 million Americans.  Between 8,000 and 20,000 die of the flu each year.  Mostly old people and those with underlying conditions.  But I suppose that with the current mindset that people who die of COVID-19 are more important than those who die of the flu.

So why don't we use the authoritarian crackdown on flue that you propose we all take regarding COVIS-19?  I think 'pan' would be appropriate if 24,000,000 Americans are stricken with it every flue season.  And there are your 'squirters' who don't wear masks and spread the flu in public places.  It is spread the same way COVID-19 is spread.

Telling people in areas that have a very low incidence of COVID-19,in fractions of a percent, to wear masks is like telling someone crossing the Sahara to wear a life jacket because there are ponds they might fall into in the oases. 

If the number of cases begins to rise sharply I will wear a mask.  But with only 22 people out of 60,000 that have been stricken it is not warranted at this time in this place. 

Noel

Again, for the fifteenth time, by the time you see reported cases rise sharply, it will be too late. You can lockdown 100% and wear two masks, but your cases will keep exponentially rising for another two weeks. Does that make sense to you? Do you understand why?

This is a health and economic problem, not a political one, When you view it with a political lens and start throwing terms like ‘authoritarianism’ in there, it only shows how you are conflating unrelated issues together and causing you to come to some really bad conclusions that are detrimental to your well being.

How do you say with a straight face that covid and flu are really a lot alike? According to your numbers, 24m americans with the flu, and 20k die from it versus 1m americans with covid and  60k dead as of now. Huh? That is similar? 24 times more americans got the flu and were 3x less likely to die than covid? That makes them similar? Am I understanding your point correctly? I am befuddled. You just made the argument that covid is 3x more dangerous than the flu. Why? That completely goes against your stance. And you do understand that even these covid numbers are only because of the lockdowns? The would be much higher otherwise.