An interesting video to watch. 

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, adviser to the Swedish Government

Of the opinion that Sweden's approach is superior and that after all this is over, there will be very little difference in terms of fatalities, regardless of the approach taken. I think he may be missing the point though, the need to flatten the curve to take the burden off the health service. 

He seems to think that the virus is way less dangerous than we believe, because so many people get it and have no idea they have it. He claims millions in the UK have already had it and have had no idea. No idea how he can claim such a thing with such certainty. 

 

 

Edited April 30, 20206 yr by martin-w

Sweden is extremely interesting.  I don't want to dismiss their approach out of hand, but I don't want to be too fast to draw conclusions, either, because it's hard to know what factors are in play (behavioral?  cultural?), to make the best comparisons (to the UK? to other Scandanavian countries?), and to know where the number are going to land.

This piece covers some basics and asks some questions about the numbers.

This essay is a little hard to read (style is tough, or maybe it's a translation issue) but it raises interesting points about Swedish culture, how it differs from other European countries, and how it supports their approach.

Here, Sweden's foreign minister suggests there may be more stringent crackdowns, and she discusses mortality numbers.

Finally, there are the Johns Hopkins worldwide mortality numbers (scroll down) - Sweden doesn't come out all that well on case-fatality ratio (12.1 percent) or deaths per 100,000 population (24.18). Some countries are worse, though not the US, but Denmark, Finland and Norway are considerably better.  The page also includes graphs that you can switch between absolute and population-adjusted numbers'

They bear looking at but I personally wouldn't yet say that their results clearly indicate that voluntary restrictions are better than mandatory ones.  I might come around to that but I'd need more numbers and more analysis.

 

 

Won't be traveling, as not only has the event I intended to attend been cancelled, the flights I needed to take to get there have also been cancelled, so I wouldn't be able to go even if I wanted to.

Here's an excerpt from an interesting article:

******************************

Fatality Rate

A recent Stanford University antibody study estimated the fatality rate from the virus is likely 0.1% to 0.2%. The World Health Organization (WHO) had estimated that the death rate was 20 to 30 times higher and called for isolation policies. On which version do you think the media focused?

In New York City, the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic, the death rate for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01%, or 10 per 100,000 in the population. People aged 75 and older, though, have a death rate 80 times that. For children under 18, the rate of death is zero per 100,000. That’s zero.

Health and Age

More than half of the COVID-19 deaths in Europe occurred in long-term care or nursing-home facilities. At least one-fifth of the deaths recorded in the U.S. so far have occurred there.

Nearly all the patients hospitalized for the coronavirus in New York City had underlying health conditions, according to a recent study.

“Health records from 5,700 patients hospitalized within the Northwell Health system — which housed the most patients in the country throughout the pandemic — showed that 94 percent of patients had more than one disease other than COVID-19, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association,” Fox News reported.

The study found 42% of the patients were overweight and 53% had hypertension, and the others suffered from a variety of ailments.

Far More Widespread

 

Millions and millions of Americans have already been infected with the virus — even though the U.S. media continues to report the low numbers provided by Johns Hopkins, which says that 998,000 Americans have contracted the virus as of Tuesday.

An antibody study was conducted last week in New York City and found that 1 in 5 (21.2%) of residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. There are 8.5 million people in New York City, so that would mean 1.8 million New Yorkers have had the virus.

At the time of the study, there were 16,249 deaths in the city attributed to COVID-19, which means the death rate in the city was 0.89% at the time — far lower than reports in the U.S. media.

Results of antibody survey last week in Los Angeles found as many as 442,000 Los Angeles County residents might have already been infected with the coronavirus by early April, a number far higher than the 8,000 cases confirmed at the time. The survey suggested that the death rate from the virus could be as low as 0.18% of COVID-19 patients, which means the actual death rate in the city is far lower than reported.

The Daily Mail reported Monday that “coronavirus may kill 70 times fewer patients than official UK death figures suggest, studies have shown.” The Mail said a similar fatality rate — 0.19% — was found in a study of residents in Helsinki, Finland.

A study, this one by Dr. Justin Silverman, estimates that there were 8.7 million coronavirus infections in the U.S. between March 8 and March 28. And as of April 17, 10% of Americans have been infected — which is roughly 33 million Americans.

********************************

More and more reports and studies are emerging which indicate that Covid-19 is essentially a bad flu.

It's time to reopen.  While getting back to normal, we can take special measures to protect the elderly and sick, do the contact tracing and quarantining as needed, and keep working on better treatments and a vaccine.

Dave

37 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

More and more reports and studies are emerging which indicate that Covid-19 is essentially a bad flu.

Dave

Seriously, it’s not just a flu. I’ve never known anyone that has died from the flu in almost 50 years on this planet. I already know several that have died from covid19.

Everybody wants to reopen, including me. But if you do it too early, before numbers have fallen to the point where test/trace/quarantine is effective at stopping any resurgent spread or without a mask mandate, then you will just prolong the pandemic and recession by reopening.

Edited May 1, 20206 yr by KevinAu

Dave and Alan.  Does anybody really know anything?  Numbers are bandied about but what do they mean?  You don't really think every country should be the same do you?  Not even every region of a country.

We were holding at 18 or 19 for several weeks.  Then it jumped to 21 for a few weeks.  Then it went up to 22 and the first fatality, which was probably the 22nd case.  But that is almost nothing compared to NW New Mexico in the Navajo Nation.  They've been devastated.

You look at macro numbers and tell us what we should be doing with masks and social distancing.  I look at the micro numbers n my specific area and with 0.02% of our micro population (60,000) I see no reason to wear a mask or for social distancing.

Noel

Kevin, I don't know anybody who died from it.  I don't know anybody who caught it.  I don't know anybody who knows anybody who caught it.

We live in different worlds, you and I.  One size does not fit all.  You can say we're gonna get it, were gonna get it!  Maybe you're right and when or if we do we'll take it seriously.  Meanwhile I'm not changing my lifestyle because yours has changed or because you know people who died from it.

I don't know where you live, but you know where I live.  Check out the numbers in SE New Mexico and tell me why I should follow your advice.

You don't seem to realize there are regional differences in climate, population and geography.

Noel

 

6 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Kevin, I don't know anybody who died from it.  I don't know anybody who caught it.  I don't know anybody who knows anybody who caught it.

We live in different worlds, you and I.  One size does not fit all.  You can say we're gonna get it, were gonna get it!  Maybe you're right and when or if we do we'll take it seriously.  Meanwhile I'm not changing my lifestyle because yours has changed or because you know people who died from it.

I don't know where you live, but you know where I live.  Check out the numbers in SE New Mexico and tell me why I should follow your advice.

You don't seem to realize there are regional differences in climate, population and geography.

Noel

 

The problem with your thinking is that your community will then just end up harboring ‘squirters‘ that will bring the disease back to others who have worked hard to stop it.

You keep saying you’ll take it seriously when you see more cases there. But you still refuse to address the point I bring up to you that someone can spread it for two weeks without knowing they have it. Do you understand the implications of that to how futile it will be for you to do anything once you see it as a ‘problem’ where you are?

Edited May 1, 20206 yr by KevinAu

6 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

Seriously, it’s not just a flu. I’ve never known anyone that has died from the flu in almost 50 years on this planet. I already know several that have died from covid19.

I don’t know anyone who’s ever died from either the flu or covid19, however according to these stats quoted below from the CDC and WHO, the season flu can cause a fair amount of deaths both in the US and Globally.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths. 

Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year. 

 

16 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Does anybody really know anything? 

It doesn’t seem so in some instances. Remember them saying don’t wear a mask, to now everyone should be wearing a mask. Seems that some of the experts and agencies have flip flopped on some of their suggestions and recommendations. Some experts say stay away from anti inflammatory like Advil that will make it worse other experts say theirs no correlation. Seems like everyone got a horse in the race to be right and maintain control.

No wonder some are skeptical of big government and world agencies, and just listen to what they say and draw their own conclusions, rather than just taking what they say as fact. However their does seem to be some push to shut down dissenting opinions that go against what large agencies say.

I do agree that there isn’t a one size fits all. There’s 3 ways we could have approached this. One, do nothing and let the virus take its toll. Two, take precautions (masks, distancing, disinfectant) but let people do as they see fit or must do. Three, lock everything down. Somewhere there needs to be a balance (option 2) because we won’t be able to stop all deaths and the economic impact could end up hurting people more than option 3.

In your case, living in a small town out in the middle of the desert, just practicing social distancing and wearing a mask would probably be enough. In NYC where people live on top of each other and cram into the underground tubes, it’s a little harder to control.

3 minutes ago, cmpbellsjc said:

t doesn’t seem so in some instances. Remember them saying don’t wear a mask, to now everyone should be wearing a mask.

If I remember correctly, the real reason for that was to discourage a run on masks like the previous run on toilet paper, diverting needed supplies from front-line responders.......

2 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

If I remember correctly, the real reason for that was to discourage a run on masks like the previous run on toilet paper, diverting needed supplies from front-line responders.......

That was the real reason but they lied saying that they didn’t want us buying/using masks because they don’t work, will do little to protect us, or even make us more susceptible to catching it or worn incorrectly. That’s the problem, they should just be straight with the public, but they can’t.

I was skeptical when they said it won’t help to protect us but yet we need more for health care workers. Well if they’re not going to protect us then they won’t protect health care workers either? It was pretty obvious that they were lying.

10 minutes ago, cmpbellsjc said:

It was pretty obvious that they were lying.

Yes, but the general public mostly missed it, and honestly, the political critters are paid to make those decisions. Considering the dire numbers they were likely looking at at the time, I probably would have grit my teeth and done exactly the same; with the expectation that kickstarting companies into getting massive supplies of masks into the pipeline would be an emergency priority.

Edit: By the way, after the fact, if called on it, I would admit it straight out, and if people wanted my head, they could have it!!

Edited May 1, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

A recent Stanford University antibody study estimated the fatality rate from the virus is likely 0.1% to 0.2%.

How many times do we have to go over this? The Stanford study is the one we've already talked about.  It's been thoroughly discredited.

The figures from the New York antibody study are outliers based most likely on unreliable testing.

What's the source of your article?  Please provide a link.

@birdguy - does anybody know anything?  Yes, they do.  They're called scientists and they publish science in peer-reviewed science journals. 

I'm really sorry that IHME and Johns Hopkins and Imperial College and Dr. Fauci and David Ho and Laurie Garrett don't line up with the happy talk you guys want to cherry pick from Fox News or wherever you're getting it.

Surprised nobody has cited the two urgent care guys from Bakersfield on this round.

You know what?  Have it your way.  It's not as bad as the flu and more people die in auto accidents and clearly everbody's wrong but you because we're all caught up in the big media conspiracy (how long before somebody brings up George Soros?) and it's because we're either ill-informed or we want to take away your freedoms.

Let's salute the brave protesters with the AR-15s fighting for a free society, the same way the Greatest Generation went out with their weapons to protest state tyranny when they all got drafted.  Oh... wait.

I'm done here.  I'm not going to waste my time when the same debunked word not allowed keeps coming up over and over and over because it suits somebody's agenda and "you can cite all the studies you want but I know what I know."

Have a party, guys.

If you want to find me, I'll be in the other threads talking about airplanes or maybe not even that.

Best of luck to you all.

23 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Yes, but the general public mostly missed it, and honestly, the political critters are paid to make those decisions. Considering the dire numbers they were likely looking at at the time, I probably would have grit my teeth and done exactly the same; with the expectation that kickstarting companies into getting massive supplies of masks into the pipeline would be an emergency priority.

Edit: By the way, after the fact, if called on it, I would admit it straight out, and if people wanted my head, they could have it!!

I agree, some people probably without thinking about it thought it was true, but I think a fair amount also knew it was baloney. Now there’s been another article circulated that says you can even beef up your mask by wear a leg of a pair of pantyhose over your face under the mask and it will filter out around 50-70% more airborne particles. I wonder if there will be a run one hose now like we had with TP.

The other issue as well is reports, not only in the US but in other countries putting down causes of death as Covid when it might have actually been something else, naturally inflating the numbers of deaths. Makes you wonder what the real numbers are from under reported nations and over reported nations, but I suppose we'll never know the true stats.

As long as we have researchers, agencies, politicians and scientists being funded from other organizations and groups that have an agenda and can bend the narrative anyway they want it, it’s easy to see some skepticism.