Noel - my most recent respiratory illness was in late December/early January when I went to see Star Wars at the theater.  I hadn't been anywhere in the week prior to seeing the movie.  I went straight there and encountered the person who sold me the ticket and the person who tore the ticket and told me which theater.  I went in and sat down and there were only about ten people in the theater the whole time.  I had my row to myself and the row behind me only had two woman who were in their 70's and both looked healthy.  There were a few clusters of people further back in the theater.

During the movie one of the ladies coughed and I hoped sshe wasnt sick but that was here only cough so I assumed she was fine.

I enjoyed the movie well enough. went home and some time later became ill.  I had a cough mostly and just didnt feel good.  A couple days later I thought I was better but then I got a 103 degree fever and my cough got much worse.  The fever only lasted a day or two but the severe deep cough went on so long I began to think I had pneumonia.  I would have gone to the doctor if it had lasted much longer but it finally cleared on its own.  I still dont know what it was because it has never matched any of the lists of symptoms that I can find.

My point in all of this is that it only takes one contact and you cant always see who it is that gives you a virus.  In fact I doubt you can be sure on most occasions.

I think it makes perfect sense to not wear a mask if you never see anyone -- if you live like a hermit like I do -- but it only takes one encounter no matter how few people you encounter.

This illness is said to be causing blood clots that lead to strokes and neurological problems.  Thats not like the flu at all.

You can do what you want but with people travelling on airplanes and the fact that it only takes one encounter, I think its best not to not care about it.

The fact is that it's not just those 2 doctors who have criticized the response to this virus.

You can post all the links, studies, and papers you wish, but the fact is that the vast majority of people who contract Covid-19 do not die from it.  You can post articles about a 30 year old dying from it, but that is an anomaly.  Again, this is not the case for the very old or already sick - these people are vulnerable to a lot of things, not just Covid-19.

I believe that folks who advocate shutting down the economy for as long as it takes in order to prevent 50,000 deaths are simply naive and have no understanding of what this would do to society were it to continue for much longer.  The consequences would be far worse than 50,000, or even 100,000, deaths.

It's so easy to engage in philosophical discussions about this and simply promote the heartwarming and loving idea that we must shut down the economy to save everyone. 

I'd like to see someone continue to advocate that idea when they lose their job, or the govt. no longer has the money to send out those pension checks, or the supermarkets begin running out of food because the supply chain breaks down, or crime skyrockets as desperate people resort to stealing in order to provide for their families, and so on and so on.

Dave

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by dave2013

44 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

How do you say with a straight face that covid and flu are really a lot alike? According to your numbers, 24m americans with the flu, and 20k die from it versus 1m americans with covid and  60k dead as of now. Huh? That is similar? 24 times more americans got the flu and were 3x less likely to die than covid? That makes them similar? Am I understanding your point correctly? I am befuddled. You just made the argument that covid is 3x more dangerous than the flu. Why? That completely goes against your stance. And you do understand that even these covid numbers are only because of the lockdowns? The would be much higher otherwise.

A lot more than 1 million Americans contracted Covid-19.

Your numbers are wrong therefore your conclusions are wrong.

Dave

You seem to have completely missed the point of that post. The numbers quoted are quoted by Noel, in support of his hypothesis that this virus is less dangerous than flu, when in fact they show that it is far more dangerous. Whether or not they are correct is not relevant to the point being made because the point being made is about the "interpretation", not the facts themselves. Not only that, there is no conclusion drawn in the text that you have quoted, so it cannot be wrong.

It is easy to understand the passion on both sides of the "let's look after everyone" vs "let's get back to work" arguments, but they are incompatible goals. The worrying aspect is the laissez faire attitude, which the virus thrives on and the massive political element.

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by Reader

16 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

A lot more than 1 million Americans contracted Covid-19.

Your numbers are wrong therefore your conclusions are wrong.

Dave

That’s about where the official count is. Not my fault that we don’t have the testing capacity. Not my fault that they do not want to test everybody. Even if you multiply the 1m by 2, 3, 4, 8 times, you are nowhere near 24m. If you know the 1m is wrong, please proffer a correct number.

49 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

The fact is that it's not just those 2 doctors who have criticized the response to this virus.

You can post all the links, studies, and papers you wish, but the fact is that the vast majority of people who contract Covid-19 do not die from it.  You can post articles about a 30 year old dying from it, but that is an anomaly.  Again, this is not the case for the very old or already sick - these people are vulnerable to a lot of things, not just Covid-19.

I believe that folks who advocate shutting down the economy for as long as it takes in order to prevent 50,000 deaths are simply naive and have no understanding of what this would do to society were it to continue for much longer.  The consequences would be far worse than 50,000, or even 100,000, deaths.

It's so easy to engage in philosophical discussions about this and simply promote the heartwarming and loving idea that we must shut down the economy to save everyone. 

I'd like to see someone continue to advocate that idea when they lose their job, or the govt. no longer has the money to send out those pension checks, or the supermarkets begin running out of food because the supply chain breaks down, or crime skyrockets as desperate people resort to stealing in order to provide for their families, and so on and so on.

Dave

 

 

 

 

Alright fine. I’m an A320 captain at a US carrier. When we furlough, I will lose my left seat spot at best and probably be on the cusp of furlough.

My selfish motivation on what I argue for is to preserve as much of the industry as possible and save my own skinny azz.

If we open up too early and without the correct measures, and we see a resurgence, the economy will crash again, through the march low, and for well into 2021, putting me on the street for years.

If we open up carefully and correctly, then we have a chance of having only to furloughing maybe 20-30%, thereby saving my skinny azz from joblessness. And by correctly, I do mean we don’t open while cases are still growing and once people are out, they keep distancing as much as possible and masks are mandated.

If this country was not so arrogant and negligent in january and february, then there would not have been a need for an economic shutdown. If we had taken action then to acquire the necessary quantities of ppe for everyone in this country, to treat the disease with the necessary respect that even one case should have gotten, we would not be in this situation. Other countries like S Korea and Taiwan knew what to do a d avoided economic shutdown. Nothing new and nothing our experts didn’t already have briefings and manuals drawn up for our leadership. This was all avoidable.

If we ignore it like you want and let it run through and kill whatever hundreds of thousands here, the market and economy will crash just as hard if not harder and for longer. So, let me be blunt, what you advocate for is wrong and will destroy this country.

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by KevinAu

13 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

If this country was not so arrogant and negligent in january and february, then there would not have been a need for an economic shutdown. If we had taken action then to acquire the necessary quantities of ppe for everyone in this country, to treat the disease with the necessary respect that even one case should have gotten, we would not be in this situation. Other countries like S Korea and Taiwan knew what to do. Nothing new and nothing our experts didn’t already have briefings and manuals drawn up for our leadership. This was all avoidable.

If we ignore it like you want and let it run through and kill whatever hundreds of thousands here, the market and economy will crash just as hard if not harder and for longer. So, let me be blunt, what you advocate for is wrong and will destroy this country.

In January???  This thing wasn't even on anyone's radar then.  China and the WHO were busy covering up just how bad the outbreak was and how infectious the virus was. 

No country in the world, other than perhaps South Korea and Taiwan as you stated, was well prepared for something like this, so please stop the blame game.  Thank goodness that flights from China were suspended in late January despite the harsh criticism from many about that decision.

Lastly, you're putting words in others' mouths again.  I never said "ignore" the virus. and I never said that we should not have implemented the shutdowns and prevention measures.

What I have said is that the shutdown measures and gradual reopening and lifting of restrictions must be tailored to each State and locality.  It's not one size fits all.  Moreover, we simply cannot keep everything shut down for more than a few months for a virus with a mortality rate of 0.1-0.3%.  You can dispute those figures but that's what multiple studies are showing now that testing has ramped up.

If we were dealing with airborne Ebola then I would support a total shutdown for as long as it takes.  This is a far cry from something as deadly as that.

Dave

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by dave2013

You know........ It's been mentioned that we (supposedly) want to keep this thread apolitical, to avoid the 800 gorilla in the room, yet the language of some posts is becoming more and more overtly conspiratorial/political........

Gonna have the mods back, soon........

STOP making political statements, whether true or false!  If your post comes up missing, that's why!

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

It says an average of 8% of the population are stricken with flu every year.  That's 24 million Americans.  Between 8,000 and 20,000 die of the flu each year.  Mostly old people and those with underlying conditions.  But I suppose that with the current mindset that people who die of COVID-19 are more important than those who die of the flu.

Noel, Covid-19 has already killed more in four months than the flu kills in twelve months. That is at least a three-fold increase in fatalities so far.

As far as I know common flu doesn't cause blood clots for that matter...

2 hours ago, dave2013 said:

The fact is that it's not just those 2 doctors who have criticized the response to this virus.

You can post all the links, studies, and papers you wish, but the fact is that the vast majority of people who contract Covid-19 do not die from it. 

Well, with that we've circled back to our conversation a few days ago about the Santa Clara study, which didn't stand up to scrutiny. "You can post all the links, studies and papers you wish..." Yes, and so can you, and so can everybody else.  That's how science gets done and that's how science gets debated.

It's quite true that the majority of people who contract Covid-19 do not die for it.  But for some of the people who survive it, it's a damaging and life-altering experience.  And I'm sorry, the dead and the severely ill do not all fit neatly into the over-70 cohort that seems to have been declared expendable.

2 hours ago, dave2013 said:

It's so easy to engage in philosophical discussions about this and simply promote the heartwarming and loving idea that we must shut down the economy to save everyone. 

I'd like to see someone continue to advocate that idea when they lose their job, or the govt. no longer has the money to send out those pension checks, or the supermarkets begin running out of food because the supply chain breaks down, or crime skyrockets as desperate people resort to stealing in order to provide for their families, and so on and so on.

Bit of a straw-man argument.  My business has totally shut down - it's producing zero income for me at this point.  My clients aren't assigning work because their clients aren't engaging them.  So  it's not like any of this is easy, or that shutdowns are something to be enthusiastic about (or that I think of as "heartwarming.") And yet I favor continued restrictions because the alternative is worse - and not only in terms of public health.  As you correctly point out in your more recent post, any relaxing of restrictions will be local and graduated.  What that means is that the economy won't go back on like a lightswitch - there will be continued downward pressure on it.  Getting too aggressive about removing restrictions risks new outbreaks, leading to new lockdowns, leading to a yo-yo effect (described elsewhere as a "W-shaped" recovery) that prolongs the economic pain and causes still more hardship for a long period of time.  Maintaining restrictions now, until cases show a clear and prolonged (two-week) decline, is a way to prevent much worse for much longer.

Oh, and the food supply chain has already broken down, at least where I am.

Again - as you've done elsewhere - we need to move away from this binary idea that it's total shutdown on the one hand vs. fully lit-up economy on the other.  That's not what anyone is arguing for and it's not how it's going to work.

As for the rest - bring the data and let's keep talking.

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by Alan_A

Here's a midday fact-based roundup:

In most places where cases have peaked and are declining, they're not declining all that fast.  We're reached a plateau but not a down-curve.  That's as expected.  Flattening the curve was and is about reducing the demand on the healthcare system at any given time.  It wasn't about reducing the total amount of virus out there.  So the pandemic has a lower peak but plays out over a longer period of time.

For that reason, the IHME has revised its estimated death total slightly upward.

The Financial Times is now including excess death estimates in its coronavirus tracker.  Those excess deaths continue to get attention and will probably require a further upward revision in covid death estimates - a new CDC study produces results similar to the Yale study reported yesterday (and quoted in one of my posts - I think the story is still behind a paywall but I'll keep checking).

This article provides an extensive roundup of what we know right now - and what we don't yet know - about all the ways the virus attacks the body.

And finally, on an encouraging note - an Oxford University research team seems to be out front on vaccine development.  They're working with a vaccine they previously developed for SARS-CoV-1, and that they've modified with components of SARS-CoV-2. The ability to modify an existing vaccine might put them on a fast track.  The vaccine is currently showing promising results in a small animal trial.  The usual cautions apply - this is in early stages, and animal results often don't translate to human results.  But the project is worth keeping an eye on.

More to follow as I come across it.

 

 

 

Please stop or this very useful topic may well end up censored altogether. That would be a great shame, especially for those of us who have benefited from the vastly informed content that certain people have added.

1 hour ago, n4gix said:

As far as I know common flu doesn't cause blood clots for that matter...

Exactly. Flu doesn't cause seemingly healthy men in their 30s and 40s to have strokes and heart attacks after displaying minor symptoms.
Coronavirus: Spike in stroke deaths in patients with only minor Covid-19 symptoms

There's even been an increase in children of all ages presenting with a multisystem inflammatory state requiring intensive care.
Coronavirus-related condition may be emerging in children
 

Worringly, there is evidence of potential airborne transmission of the virus:
Coronavirus: Evidence of airborne transmission detected in Wuhan hospitals

 

Edited April 29, 20206 yr by F737NG

I apologize if any of my comments have come off as political.  I have tried to avoid injecting that into this discussion.  I will avoid making or replying to any political statements or references to government, even though government plays a huge role in this pandemic.  I really don't view this pandemic through a political lens.

Yes, Covid-19 is a pandemic.  Yes, it is serious.  Yes, it kills people.  Yes, we should have implemented a temporary shutdown and prevention/mitigation/containment measures, of varying degrees depending on location.

I simply believe that the severity and lethality of it is overblown, and does not warrant a shutdown lasting more than a couple of months, with the exception of some very high population density cities who might need to shut down for a little longer.  The economy needs to reopen soon and we must accept that some people will die from this virus, just as we accept that people die from accidents and other causes every single day, some preventable if extreme enough measures were to be taken.

Someone made a post about Covid-19 killing young adults and children.  Influenza kills young adults and children every year in the U.S. 

I believe that one of the main reasons Covid-19 has killed so many, more than Influenza, is because there's no vaccine for it.  If we didn't have a vaccine for Influenza then that would kill many more people as well.  Moreover, we don't yet have proven, time-tested treatments for Covid-19.  Once we do that will also reduce the number of deaths.

This thing might come around every year for the rest of our lives, but once we develop a vaccine and treatments for it, then it will be like the flu. 

Dave