X-Plane will be fine. MSFS will be more successfull in numbers, but X-Plane will have enough people purchasing it to make it commercially viable.

Remember that LR has no shareholders to satisfy, they just need to pay everyone on the team and thats it. There is a huge difference in cost to run/fund MSFS and X-Plane, I would say the difference is factor 10 at least (salaries/shareholder ROI/server costs).

I know this concept is hard to grasp for some, but LR is not out to "win" the numbers game. There is a big difference between "quality" and "appeal". You need to be educated about a subject to see quality, however 😉.

X-Plane was fine when FSX was the hottest item, the disparity in graphics was AT LEAST as stark as it is today between X-Plane 11 and MSFS, yet X-Plane was commercially viable then as well (even without the mobile market).

So you can predict doom and gloom for X-Plane all you want. It was fine without PMDG before, it was fine without OrbX before and it will be fine without satellite streamed scenery in the future. Not as successfull as MSFS, but fine.

1 hour ago, fogboundturtle said:

Xp11 hates me and  my PC. There isn't a tweak or setting that manages to give a satisfying  experience. At Ultrawide, in Zibo or FF777 I barely get in the 40fps. I think XP11 hates AMD processor

Hate AMD It cant hate anything, but it depends on your AMD CPU, There was an article on youtube about performance of some, You should do some research. Look at the new 11700K from Intel hotter and barely any better than the 10700K. Newer isnt always better, time to learn for yourself.

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by mjrhealth

15 minutes ago, mjrhealth said:

AMD CPU

the 5000 series are pure gold, I expect their next to be another generational leap. They've only just started warming up with what their chiplet architecture is capable of. Intel is still stuck on 14nm monolithic chips from 10+ years ago and has moved sideways since then (why I never upgraded my intel 2700k until the 5900X was available - there simply wasn't any chips better enough to justify the expense, $1500 for 10%-15% performance improvement just made zero sense).

Their GPU hardware is also very competitive - but completely let down by their dire lack of investment in desktop drivers. So right now hardware is AMD CPU, Nvidia GPU - if you can find either, because they are selling orders of magnitudes than they can be produced (something that happens when you make a great product)

56 minutes ago, Janov said:

yet X-Plane was commercially viable then as well

For Laminar certainly, consulting and special orders for commercial will keep that rolling.

a sustainable 3PD market? - I'd say the jury is still out on that one, they need a much greater numbers of users than they have now for that.

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by mSparks

35 minutes ago, mSparks said:

a sustainable 3PD market? - I'd say the jury is still out on that one, they need a much greater numbers of users than they have now for that.

Tell that to my accountant.  He very strongly disagrees with you.

14 minutes ago, GoranM said:

Tell that to my accountant.  He very strongly disagrees with you.

Tell that to the wasteland of developers that have abandoned XP and gone elsewhere - even when they make good products.

e.g.

 http://indiafoxtecho.blogspot.com/2020/11/siai-marchetti-s-211-freeware-release.html

I also do not believe for a second you are making a 6 figure income from your xplane stuff, which is a normalish rate for doing this kind of stuff well, even that horror show that is the 737Max for MSFS did better than that.

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by mSparks

4 minutes ago, mSparks said:

Tell that to the wasteland of developers that have abandoned XP and gone elsewhere - even when they make good products.

Someone can make the best aircraft no one has ever heard of, and make hardly anything.  Others can make a highly in-demand aircraft, and make enough money to buy a house.  Even PMDG, in most people's opinion, the best developer for MSFS, lost money on their MD-11 and DC6 (as admitted to by R. Randazzo himself.)

 

4 minutes ago, mSparks said:

I also do not believe for a second you are making a 6 figure income from your xplane stuff, which is a normalish rate for doing this kind of stuff well.

Good!  The less you know about how much I make, the better!  But after the TBM, there is zero chance I'm leaving X-Plane.

Come to think of it, it really doesn't matter what I say about this anyway.  If I tell you you're right, you'll say, "I knew it!".  If I say I've made well into the 6 figures, you'll say, "I also do not believe for a second you are making a 6 figure income from your xplane stuff, which is a normalish rate for doing this kind of stuff well."

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by GoranM

13 minutes ago, GoranM said:

the best developer for MSFS, lost money on their MD-11 and DC6 (as admitted to by R. Randazzo himself.)

kinda my point.

13 minutes ago, GoranM said:

 But after the TBM, there is zero chance I'm leaving X-Plane.

Like I said, the jury is out, that doesn't mean you'll make money on the next one and go on to a 3rd, doesn't mean you'll leave once your next one hits the stores. A sustainable 3PD market implies even half baked efforts break even, thats how half baked efforts become great products, something like the TBM on MSFS would have sold at least several million copies, xplane doesn't even have several million users, probably closer to 10,000 or 20,000 regularly getting their wallets out.

 

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by mSparks

13 minutes ago, mSparks said:

Like I said, the jury is out, that doesn't mean you'll make money on the next one and go on to a 3rd, doesn't mean you'll leave once your next one hits the stores.

I've been making payware since 2009.  It's safe to say I have a far better perspective on the payware market than you do.

13 minutes ago, mSparks said:

something like the TBM on MSFS would have sold at least several million copies, xplane doesn't even have several million users.

MSFS has sold about 3 million copies.  Are you saying I would have gotten 100% of the market with a turboprop GA?  (I assume several million to mean at least 3 million)

But let's say I sold 3 million copies (the conservative side of "several" million)

So, at $64.95, at 3 million sales, I will have grossed $194 million!!!  

May I suggest you re-evaluate your estimates, because something tells me they are just a little off.

 

Ok, in all seriousness, the market dictates a certain percentage/yr of sales when compared to the host platform, to be deemed a success.  For some developers, that percentage needs to be quite high.  A ball park percentage for an add on to be considered a success is roughly 5%-10% (first year sales) for the X-Plane market and much less for the MSFS market, due to volume of MSFS users.  Some developers sales have been leaked, but I'll mention one that is widely known.  The Level D 767 sold about 35 000 units for FS9 and FSX combined.  That aircraft was considered "top tier" by the community.  Numbers haven't even doubled in recent years for P3D and FSX.  1 particular add on sold 90 000 units over the course of 3 years up until 2018.  About 50 000 were in the first year.

 

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by GoranM

1 minute ago, GoranM said:

MSFS has sold about 3 million copies.

Try again. there are 18 million gamepass users alone, every one needs pay no one else but you for the plane.

also

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2020/12/17/microsoft-flight-simulator-is-fastest-growing-entry-in-the-series-with-over-2-million-players-to-date/

5 minutes ago, GoranM said:

Are you saying I would have gotten 100% of the market with a turboprop GA?

I'd guess you've reached about 70%-80% of regular xplane users by now. putting gross sales in the $500k to $1mill region, not bad for 12 months work, pretty terrible if it took much longer than that to make and you have to split it with other people.

 

2 minutes ago, mSparks said:

Try again. there are 18 million gamepass users alone, every one needs pay no one else but you for the plane.

You can't count gamepass.  I'll bet money that the vast majority of them don't even load up MSFS anymore.

2 minutes ago, mSparks said:

I'd guess you've reached about 70%-80% of regular xplane users by now. putting gross sales in the $500k to $1mill region, not bad for 12 months work, pretty terrible if it took much longer than that to make and you have to split it with other people.

Well, you did say you wouldn't believe it if I made 6 figures, so that point is probably moot.  But anyway, the TBM took me 10 months to make, but I came on board 8 months after it was started.

 

And I added more to my last post.  Gives you an idea of the payware market.

1 minute ago, GoranM said:

Well, you did say you wouldn't believe it if I made 6 figures

per year.

You succeeded this year, many many more didn't. That isn't sustainable.

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by mSparks

4 minutes ago, mSparks said:

per year.

That too.  Obviously sales taper off eventually, but even after 7+ years, my Saab is still selling enough to enable demand for further free updates.

 

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by GoranM

19 minutes ago, GoranM said:

Ok, in all seriousness, the market dictates a certain percentage/yr of sales when compared to the host platform, to be deemed a success.  For some developers, that percentage needs to be quite high.  A ball park percentage for an add on to be considered a success is roughly 5%-10% (first year sales) for the X-Plane market and much less for the MSFS market, due to volume of MSFS users.  Some developers sales have been leaked, but I'll mention one that is widely known.  The Level D 767 sold about 35 000 units for FS9 and FSX combined.  That aircraft was considered "top tier" by the community.  Numbers haven't even doubled in recent years for P3D and FSX.  1 particular add on sold 90 000 units over the course of 3 years up until 2018.  About 50 000 were in the first year.

And this is the biggest difference between the game market and the commercial market.

Game market sells millions of copies at $20-$60 a pop

Commercial market sells in tiny volume at $1000s a pop, return roughly about the same. Game prices at commercial volume simply isn't sustainable longer term.

1 minute ago, mSparks said:

Game market sells millions of copies at $20-$60 a pop

And that comes with massive buildings and studios to make those games.  Along with a staff of of a few thousand .  Electronic Arts has almost 9000 staff, including executives.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/08whepoocnu20ei/Screen Shot 2021-03-24 at 7.09.16 pm(4).png?dl=0

I work in teams of 2.  I can afford to take the hit.

7 minutes ago, GoranM said:

And that comes with massive buildings and studios to make those games.  Along with a staff of of a few thousand .  Electronic Arts has almost 9000 staff, including executives.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/08whepoocnu20ei/Screen Shot 2021-03-24 at 7.09.16 pm(4).png?dl=0

I work in teams of 2.  I can afford to take the hit.

Assuming your next is also successful and not an MD11, DC10 or SIAI Marchetti S-211.

I'm not even arguing with you however, I'm simply pointing out that one or two successes does not make for a sustainable 3PD market. In one sense it is a large net positive for you that many devs have gone to MSFS, on the other hand, those MSFS users should be choosing the better sim with the better planes (and LRs more or less mute marketing department doesn't make that happen).

Edited March 24, 20215 yr by mSparks