Russia to abandon ISS

[martin-w 3,234]

So the Russians say they are pulling out of the ISS and building their own space station. Something tells me that given the state of the Russian economy, they won't be able to build much of a space station. Especially when they're building a Moon base jointly with China.

But anyway, with private companies competing with each other, the US government, China and Russia, seems the new space race is on.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/apr/22/russia-well-leave-international-space-station-and-build-our-own

[Chock 17,769]

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

Something tells me that given the state of the Russian economy, they won't be able to build much of a space station.

Are you kidding? Russia has around 75 trillion dollars of energy resources (lots of oil and natural gas). The revenue from this (i.e. lots of natural gas supplies to the rest of Europe) accounts for more than 80 percent of Russian exports; this makes them the eleventh-largest economy in the world and the fifth-largest in Europe. They could build ten space stations with their pocket change.

At the moment the Russians have not actually said they are pulling out of the ISS project, nor have they yet approved the plans for one of their own, which at this stage is still only a proposal.

So it's another example of inaccurate/misleading reporting from the Guardian, which is hardly surprising, from that load of poncey hacks. I used to write for the Guardian - I worked for the GMG for over ten years as a writer and a sub editor - so knowing what I do about that place and its culture, standards and dubious integrity, the only thing I'd trust in that paper is the date at the top of the page, and even then I'd check it against a more trustworthy source. 🤣

Edited April 23, 2021 by Chock

[Christopher Low 5,332]

Alexei Navalny for President!

There, I've said it.

[martin-w 3,234]

The Times are saying this is definitve too.

 

Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station in 2025, the head of its space programme said on Wednesday, in a move that would sever one of the most prominent and long-lasting areas of co-operation between Moscow and Washington.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a1518565-e643-42ae-a650-02e9c3bdd657

I didn't say Russia had approved the plans for thir own base on the Moon. However, last month they did sign the agreement.

"Last month said it had signed an agreement with China's National Space Administration to develop a lunar research station on the surface of the Moon, in orbit or both."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56812294

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by martin-w

[Chock 17,769]

1 minute ago, martin-w said:

The Times are saying this is definitve too.

 

Russia will withdraw from the International Space Station in 2025, the head of its space programme said on Wednesday, in a move that would sever one of the most prominent and long-lasting areas of co-operation between Moscow and Washington.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a1518565-e643-42ae-a650-02e9c3bdd657

I didn't say Russia had approved the plans for thir own base on the Moon.

We need to beat them to the Moon. ALL YOUR CHEESE ARE BELONG TO US!

[martin-w 3,234]

1 hour ago, Chock said:

At the moment the Russians have not actually said they are pulling out of the ISS project, nor have they yet approved the plans for one of their own, which at this stage is still only a proposal.

 

Where did you see that the moon base wasn't approved, given that they sighed the agreement last month? And is the wit drawl from the ISS for definite or not, given that a number of other media outlets are reporting the same? 

[Chock 17,769]

2 minutes ago, martin-w said:

 

Where did you see that the moon base wasn't approved, given that they sighed the agreement last month? And is the wit drawl from the ISS for definite or not, given that a number of other media outlets are reporting the same? 

I said it wasn't YET approved. It will be in a week or two. This was a comment concerning the literary accuracy (or lack thereof) by the paper. They don't call it the Grauniad for nothing, although when I worked there, I used to call it the Naurdiag. 🤣

Edited April 23, 2021 by Chock

[martin-w 3,234]

18 minutes ago, Chock said:

I said it wasn't YET approved. It will be in a week or two.

 

If they've sighed the agreement last month then surely the Moon base is approved? You said it was only a proposal, its not, the agreement is signed.  

If you meant withdrawing from the ISS, you seem certain it WILL be approved, if so I'm not that sure we should be too scathing of the Guardian, especially when numerous other media outlets are reporting the same.  

Not that I'm a fan of the Guardian you understand, some of the stuff they generate is okay, the science stuff, some is dodgy. 

Edited April 23, 2021 by martin-w

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

Is anyone in the US space program really worried about Russia leaving the ISS? The US not only has NASA, it also has European and Asian partners, not to mention a robust private space technology sector. When SpaceX geared up to replace Russia in shuttling equipment and people to the ISS, you just knew that Russia was on its way out. 

[W2DR 1,859]

25 minutes ago, jabloomf1230 said:

Is anyone in the US space program really worried about Russia leaving the ISS?

I agree. Who gives a WNA?

[martin-w 3,234]

1 hour ago, jabloomf1230 said:

Is anyone in the US space program really worried about Russia leaving the ISS? The US not only has NASA, it also has European and Asian partners, not to mention a robust private space technology sector. When SpaceX geared up to replace Russia in shuttling equipment and people to the ISS, you just knew that Russia was on its way out. 

 

NASA no longer has seats on the Soyuz, although there was an agreement reached to reserve seats as an emergency backup in case anything went wrong with the first Crew Dragon flight. Not sure what will happen to the Russian modules on the ISS which are Russian property. 

Without Soyuz all we currently have is SpaceX. Namely the Crew Dragon, which made  its second manned flight to the ISS this morning. There are four vehicles available I recall. 

The Boeing Starliner's a bit of  a joke and still hasn't made a manned flight, or any flight since its last aborted attempt to reach the proper orbit, think that was over a year ago now.

Hopefully Boeing will get its act together with Starliner  and we'll have more than one operator available. And hopefully SpaceX's "Spaceship" will be available to serve the ISS too. 

In my opinion NASA should bring Dreamchaser on board to give us even more options. Dreamchaser, despite being a better option, was abandoned by NASA in favour of Boeings dodgy Starliner. After all the issues I'm betting they regret that. 

 

 

[kevinfirth 1,392]

42 minutes ago, Rob_Ainscough said:

Putin lost his best agent orange ... but Russian military budget is tiny relative to the US $65B vs. $730B so I doubt they have sufficient resources to support ISS.  Given that Putin is targeting the Ukraine ... nothing like starting a war as a distraction when faced with economic and political collapse.

Cheers, Rob.

Putin's too clever to actually start a war, the Russians are masters of deceit, deception and deniability.  Far better to just threaten a war, posture a bit, then slip away.  Brinkmanship is his element, you got to respect him for that, like it or not.

Soviet military doctrine was heavily influenced by Sun Tzu, and it is still reflected in the way they operate.

Edited April 23, 2021 by kevinfirth

[goates 576]

19 minutes ago, Rob_Ainscough said:

Putin's economic situation has been declining rather steadily for many years so we know his bark is much worse than his bite and deception is a tool he's exhausted.

Has it really been exhausted though? I think he still has plenty of bite, it's just far more subtle and insidious. There are more and more reports providing evidence of election meddling and social media manipulation on the part of Russia and China (and NK to a lesser extent), which I think are having a big impact on western democracies. It is certainly not as direct or blatant as straight up war, but it is doing a good job of pushing and amplifying divisions between us.

[goates 576]

9 hours ago, Chock said:

Are you kidding? Russia has around 75 trillion dollars of energy resources (lots of oil and natural gas). The revenue from this (i.e. lots of natural gas supplies to the rest of Europe) accounts for more than 80 percent of Russian exports; this makes them the eleventh-largest economy in the world and the fifth-largest in Europe. They could build ten space stations with their pocket change.

No, he isn't kidding. Those resources are only worth trillions if people buy them at profitable rates. After spats like last year's oil price war with Saudi Arabia, Russia is hurting economically. Oil and gas may account for the majority of their exports, but that doesn't help if the price is well below what it costs them to produce and ship it all.

Quote

The Russian government had initially forecast that it would run a surplus of 930 billion roubles ($11.4 billion) in 2020, but following the outbreak of the price war stated that it expected to run at a deficit. The ruble has dropped, having fallen over 30 percent between the start of 2020 and 18 March.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Russia–Saudi_Arabia_oil_price_war

[kevinfirth 1,392]

52 minutes ago, Rob_Ainscough said:

He's getting more desperate to his situation and trying to use less costly measures (cyber attacks, agents, assassinations, deception, etc.)

Kinda disagree, I think you're overstating the cost element and understating the asymmetric type of warfare the Russians excel at.