Navigraph Survey Results

[peroni 541]

About XP Steam numbers, while some might have moved to buy directly from Laminar for most of the world 60 USD are way too expensive and the only option is to take advantage of regional prices.
Here's a view of the XP12 Steam prices in some countries taken from https://steamdb.info/app/2014780/

[mSparks 2,088]

5 minutes ago, peroni said:

some countries

There are problably more PCs in Southend on sea in the UK capable of playing any of the newer sims than there is in all those countries combined tho.

(dunno why I thought of Southend on sea, I was dreaming of going to the sea side, and it was the first name that popped into my head, probably not the best choice)

Edited June 17, 2023 by mSparks

[GoranM 3,772]

3 hours ago, UrgentSiesta said:

 

Why wouldn't there be new versions every few years - just like X-Plane and P3D and DCS World?

ha aha ha aha ha ahahahahahaha!!!!

Anyone here realize all of these MSFS guys are ESL? You're going to hang them on a single word, when it's contextually clear what they meant?

That's right. And the devs who are fair about paid upgrades (like Laminar & LM) can obviously "get away with it," because it's reasonable.

"Reasonable" and "Customary" are words with which you should become familiar. See above.

So you disagree with me, then.  Could have just said, "I disagree."

🙂

Edited June 17, 2023 by GoranM

[GoranM 3,772]

X-Plane 12 Steam sales.

With Laminars staff size, and no overheads (it's run out of Austin's house), it puts some perspective into current users vs total sales.

https://vginsights.com/game/2014780

Edited June 17, 2023 by GoranM

[GCBraun 2,392]

5 hours ago, mSparks said:

There are problably more PCs in Southend on sea in the UK capable of playing any of the newer sims than there is in all those countries combined tho.

That is hardly true. China is the second biggest gaming market in the world and Brazil the 10th. Indonesia and India have huge potential as well. Going forward they will all be more relevant than the UK market.

[mSparks 2,088]

3 minutes ago, GCBraun said:

That is hardly true. China is the second biggest gaming market in the world and Brazil the 10th. Indonesia and India have huge potential as well. Going forward they will all be more relevant than the UK market.

did say it wasnt the best choice.

but, while its true they are huge gaming markets, that isn't on high end machines with gpus that cost twice the average annual salary you need for xplane or msfs or dcs etc.

That is changing as high perf gpus get cheaper and more widely available, but a looong way off yet.

Edited June 17, 2023 by mSparks

[GCBraun 2,392]

2 minutes ago, mSparks said:

did say it wasnt the best choice.

but, while its true they are huge gaming markets, that isn't on high end machines with gpus that cost twice the average annual salary you need for xplane or msfs or dcs etc.

You don't need a 4090 to play XP12 or MSFS. For the second, a 150 Euro Series S would do. Microsoft also offers regional prices on Xbox and that makes a huge difference for millions of gamers in the global south.

Edited June 17, 2023 by GCBraun

[mSparks 2,088]

5 minutes ago, GCBraun said:

150 Euro Series S would do.

in real terms, 150USD in china is the equivelent of 15,000USD to an american

(9000Yuan, $1000USD per year median income in China to $100,000USD in the US)

I dont think you properly understand the complexities of that market.

 

[GCBraun 2,392]

8 minutes ago, mSparks said:

in real terms, 150USD in china is the equivelent of 15,000USD to an american

(9000Yuan, $1000USD per year median income in China to $100,000USD in the US)

I dont think you properly understand the complexities of that market.

 

"The median salary in China is 29,300 Yuan (USD 4,111) per month."

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=44&loctype=1

Even when considering GDP per capita, the amount is over 10x what you suggested.

[mSparks 2,088]

19 minutes ago, GCBraun said:

"The median salary in China is 29,300 Yuan (USD 4,111) per month."

http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=44&loctype=1

Even when considering GDP per capita, the amount is over 10x what you suggested.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202304/t20230420_1938882.html

[UrgentSiesta 936]

10 hours ago, mSparks said:

well, there is a lot to unpack there.

What do you mean by dead?

is Quake 2 or Portal dead? (protip, if you have an RTX card, both highly recommended)

How about Battlefield 1943...

Do you disagree that saying MSFS2020 is going to die because of MSFS2024 is like saying X-Plane 11 is going to die because of X-Plane 12?

Do you agree/disagree that MSFS2020 and X-Plane 11 are dead because of X-Plane 12?

(I didn't really get much into that conversation, beyond completely losing interest along with most everyone else in MSFS2020 very very soon after its release)

not really, I say it accurately reflects the investment the developers put into the respective platforms, and how successful they have been in creating software people want to use and keep using.

If you add up the steam deck sales you will see they are still trailing all the Ti85 calculators by a large margin.

I would posit doing either isn't that useful.

What really, really mattered wrt MSFS in this survey, was that developers - both Microsoft and other big names like PMDG - were investing $$$$$$$$ with the expectation of selling into the millions upon millions of XBOX and PC users that would be coming to flight sim.

MSFS PC users evaporated faster than a petri dish of rubbing alcohol, and XBOX is still DOA.

MSFS PC users evaporated faster than a petri dish of rubbing alcohol, and XBOX is still DOA. There is no plan to "fix" that by releasing new versions of MSFS2020.

They are however, going to try re-launching it.

 

Quote

What do you mean by dead?

you're the one who used the phrase, "barely survived" - it's complementary language.

Somehow, your logic is that MS releasing a new version 4 years after launch means that v2020 is a commercial failure. Which by every measure available to us is plainly untrue. X-Plane used to do annual releases - does that mean Austin was failing year over year and "cynically" trying to dupe all of his customers with a new version?

You've been claiming for years now that v2020 has one foot in the grave, and yet here it is, still going strong (by any metric available) and getting ready to release a substantially upgraded version (after having substantially & continuously upgraded it month after month).

If, as you assert, MS & PMDG, et al, weren't reaping the rewards of their talented efforts, there wouldn't be a lot going with the sim. Yet exactly the opposite is true and you continue to ignore that.

You keep saying their market share is evaporating/shedding users/etc, right? How can you explain that a 3 year old flight simulator has 4 times the number of avsim posts as X-Plane, which has been around longer than avsim itself? You can't.

Where there's activity, there's market share, and dollars.

You're free to criticize MSFS, but it's lunacy to do it on the basis of marketshare.

MS are NOT "re-launching" FS, they're releasing a new version. No different than XP v12.

[UrgentSiesta 936]

10 hours ago, GoranM said:

So you disagree with me, then.  Could have just said, "I disagree."

🙂

Could've, but you put so much effort into your post, I felt it only fitting to respond in kind. 🙂

[mSparks 2,088]

1 hour ago, UrgentSiesta said:

you're the one who used the phrase, "barely survived" - it's complementary language.

I did, but I didn't say "dead",

On 6/14/2023 at 12:36 AM, mSparks said:

FSX was the #1 sim for just shy of 15 years, msfs2021 barely survived 2.

As in, its user base fell from 10million users to "a few hundred thousand" in the space of 2 years, and it will only hold the top spot for ~2 years.

1 hour ago, UrgentSiesta said:

Somehow, your logic is that MS releasing a new version 4 years after launch means that v2020 is a commercial failure.

The plan was always that it was a 10 year project, starting in 2014, ending in 2024.

it was a "commercial failure" because it didn't get anywhere near the 50 million user base that is required for a big AAA title to be a commercial success. It wouldn't even have recovered its marketing budget, let alone the development budget.

1 hour ago, UrgentSiesta said:

How can you explain that a 3 year old flight simulator has 4 times the number of avsim posts as X-Plane

They spent probably in the region of $200million+ on marketing. such that every tom, dick and harry, from Chicago to Jakarta was talking about it - e.g. even my 80 year old Aunt.

https://www.trueachievements.com/n53671/aaa-game-development-costs

Edited June 17, 2023 by mSparks

[Franz007 505]

3 hours ago, UrgentSiesta said:

X-Plane used to do annual releases

I have been XP-user since 2000 and started with XP 6.70. In that time never ever where there any annual new releases, just iterations within the same main version.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Franz007

[Gulfstream 416]

14 hours ago, mSparks said:

it was a "commercial failure" because it didn't get anywhere near the 50 million user base that is required for a big AAA title to be a commercial success. It wouldn't even have recovered its marketing budget, let alone the development budget.

A flight simulator will never be a big "AAA title" like you are thinking, by the very nature that it is flight simulator.  A relatively niche market compared to things like MMORPGs or shooters.

They took a big gamble of the future of the franchise by spending a lot on development and the end result shows.   The engine is certainly AAA-quality.  I've worked with the SDK, I know the technologies behind it.  They take a cut of marketplace items and will release new versions of the simulator.  The engine will almost certainly be put in use for other projects.

The thing that bothers me the most is the bashing about "10 year commitment" somehow meaning "everything's free for 10 years!", and bashing the release of a new paid update after 4 years.

X-Plane goes from v11 to v12 and it's praise all around (even though you have to pay for it).  MSFS goes from 2020 to 2024 and it's "this is proof it's dying" or "this is so unfair!".

What's up with that? Well it's because I'm in the X-Plane forum.  And certain folks certainly have blinders on.

I used to pay for every new version of X-Plane.

Used to.