40 minutes ago, Gulfstream said:

A flight simulator will never be a big "AAA title" like you are thinking

wasn't me thinking it, wasn't me that spent an "unlimited budget" of

https://www.trueachievements.com/n53671/aaa-game-development-costs

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development cost $660 million and marketing cost nearly $550 million.

Microsoft did, then their bots mobbed me en mass when I said the quiet part out loud that it was a really bad idea.

Of course, maybe you can think of a different franchise they spent more on than MSFS? Forza maybe? cos everyone in the world has heard of that.

40 minutes ago, Gulfstream said:

and the end result shows

indeed, 4 times as many users as a better sim run out of Austins back bedroom with zero marketing budget.... They must be very pleased 🤣

Edited June 18, 20232 yr by mSparks

5 hours ago, Gulfstream said:

The thing that bothers me the most is the bashing about "10 year commitment" somehow meaning "everything's free for 10 years!", and bashing the release of a new paid update after 4 years.

It's obvious, the majority (I would say EVERYONE, because I never saw a single person expect a new version after 4 years.) took their original statements of "we're going to support MSFS for 10 years" as "You will get free updates for 10 years."  Some of the regulars were gloating about how massively successful MSFS would be, that Asobo could afford to pump out free updates for 10 years.

These same regulars, even speculated (in a fun way) what MSFS will be called after the 10 years is done.  

I only bought MSFS a few months ago, based on this statement.  Had I known they were going to push out a new version soon, I would have definitely waited.  

I doubt anyone has an issue with a new version every 4 years.  It's the lack of comms that people are having an issue with.  There was not even a hint of a new version coming out.  It just looks like "We need more money.  Let's make a paid update and call it a new version."

Asobo haven't even addressed all the bugs for the current version.  Coming out with a new version is indeed, premature at this time.  If they plan on equally supporting BOTH versions, and addressing issues in the current version, while supporting the new version, great.  But I can't see how they could do that without pulling out some hair.

Edited June 18, 20232 yr by GoranM

5 hours ago, GoranM said:

never saw a single person expect a new version after 4 years.

I was wrong there.

I just expected them to kill it off completely.

In retrospect a new version/relaunch does make more sense.

But

5 hours ago, GoranM said:

There was not even a hint of a new version coming out.

I think it was a last minute/down to the wire decision. Compared to the well orchestrated fan fare around 2020, this feels much more rushed - XP12 did a better day 1 job of announcing what to expect.

I think the marketing budget will be significantly less this time around to, but we'll see I guess.

5 hours ago, GoranM said:

Asobo haven't even addressed all the bugs for the current version.

TBH, in that respect, I have been moderately impressed by what they did achieve, and how quick they were to U-turn on bad decisions (VR and CFD stuff especially)

Its not that MSFS deserved less users than were in the survey, its that the others all deserved more. 

But someone really needs to smash the xbox teams heads together and get VR support in there, else the chances if 2024 getting renewed are really slim to none, Sony is already leaving them at the terminal. Next survey is going to have another new entry:

 

 

Edited June 18, 20232 yr by mSparks

1 hour ago, mSparks said:

I think the marketing budget will be significantly less this time around to, but we'll see I guess.

Yeah, their marketing reach definitely took a hit now that E3 is dead.

EDIT: and I just connected the fact that E3 was supposed to be happening literally right now. Hence the 2024 announcement.

Edited June 18, 20232 yr by blingthinger

13 hours ago, GoranM said:

Asobo haven't even addressed all the bugs for the current version.  Coming out with a new version is indeed, premature at this time.

Unreasonable expectation. Even if they spent another 6 years, I don't think all the bugs would be squashed. I see complaints on these forums about bugs from xplane 9/10. That is a decade later. Should they not have released 11/12 yet then? Bugs in previous versions of software has never prevented any developers from releasing a new version. Apple, Google, Microsoft, Laminar, they all do it. Fact of life.

 

7 hours ago, mSparks said:

I just expected them to kill it off completely.

Why would they kill something that is wildly successful? I'm assuming that you don't follow the Dev Q&A closely otherwise you would know this. Jorg spoke about how happy he was about the success of MSFS on Xbox/Gamepass Cloud Streaming. He mentioned that even the CEO of Microsoft was happy about it. The success surpassed their expectations for sure. If it were a failure, they would have dropped it like MS Flight and your expectations would become reality. It was also definitely helped by the pandemic. Not only did MSFS roar back to life, but it also brought the whole flight sim hobby back to life. I even feel that  xplane benefited. What do think is the reason for all the new peripherals flooding the market?

Jorg said they were approaching 1 million dollars raised from the antonov sale in the marketplace. I can only imagine the total income of the marketplace if the antonov alone raised that much. The marketplace is another wildly successful aspect of the SIM that is being underestimated.

It's really silly to put so much weight on this one non-scientific survey. It surveys a small segment of mainly pc navigraph users.  I'm a paying navigraph customer and I didn't even take the survey.

 

8 minutes ago, brinx said:

Unreasonable expectation. Even if they spent another 6 years, I don't think all the bugs would be squashed.

Exactly why I, and many others, expected a full 10 years worth of support.  There are close to 300 people working on MSFS at Asobo.  If you think 300 software developers can't fix the current issues plaguing MSFS within 6 years, then you either severely underestimate their abilities, or MSFS was released far too early.  

8 minutes ago, brinx said:

I see complaints on these forums about bugs from xplane 9/10.

Please link them.  I don't see any.  As far as I can see, XP9, 10 and 11 were all stable and bug free in their final update.  If you're talking about missing features, they get added to subsequent version runs.  But bugs...nope.

 

 

 

Edited June 19, 20232 yr by GoranM

6 hours ago, brinx said:

Why would they kill something

revenue less than expenses

6 hours ago, brinx said:

that is wildly successful?

4x Xplane is not "wildly successful"

40,000x Xplane is wildly successful. Like beatsaber, warthunder, CSGO, Halo, cyberpunk 2077 etc.

6 hours ago, brinx said:

Jorg spoke about how happy he was about the success of MSFS on Xbox/Gamepass Cloud Streaming. He mentioned that even the CEO of Microsoft was happy about it.

Everything is always going perfectly.

Until the layoffs start.

6 hours ago, brinx said:

The marketplace is another wildly successful aspect of the SIM that is being underestimated.

And can continue just fine with no further updates to the base sim.

20 hours ago, blingthinger said:

Yeah, their marketing reach definitely took a hit now that E3 is dead.

What does "E3" mean?

23 minutes ago, Franz007 said:

What does "E3" mean?

https://www.engadget.com/e3-2023-has-been-canceled-211201976.html

8 minutes ago, mSparks said:

https://www.engadget.com/e3-2023-has-been-canceled-211201976.html

Thanks.

 

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As in, its user base fell from 10million users to "a few hundred thousand" in the space of 2 years, and it will only hold the top spot for ~2 years.

Would you please supply the market share numbers and "top spot" ratings for its competitors? I'm sure ALL of them would love to "fail" the same way MSFS has...

And what other flight sim is going to come along and de-throne it?

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The plan was always that it was a 10 year project, starting in 2014, ending in 2024.

And so they're going to walk away from it in 2024?

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it was a "commercial failure" because it didn't get anywhere near the 50 million user base that is required for a big AAA title to be a commercial success. It wouldn't even have recovered its marketing budget, let alone the development budget.

They spent probably in the region of $200million+ on marketing. such that every tom, dick and harry, from Chicago to Jakarta was talking about it - e.g. even my 80 year old Aunt.

https://www.trueachievements.com/n53671/aaa-game-development-costs

 

If there's any company on the planet that is familiar with what it takes to turn a profit on a game, and on a game that's a flight simulator, it's Microsoft.

You're also forgetting that what is now MSFS didn't start out as a flight sim. It was some internal tech project/demo.

And you keep talking about "Marketing Budgets", with no numbers other than ones from other genres where there is stiff competition (and $$ are needed to break through).

You fail to consider that MUCH of the buzz and hype around MSFS was entirely organic - generated from the community - and thus FREE, or available for pennies on the dollar (I used to be in the biz, so I know how that works).

At the end of the day, YOU are basically the ONLY person calling MSFS a commercial failure. And again, despite ALL outward signs, available metrics, and relevant history.

But when it comes to XP, you turn 180, and all you talk about is wildly extrapolated numbers that (also) don't exist, or you look at hard comparative data like Navigraph and Steam, and still manage to "justfy" declaring XP a raging success despite the fact that it perennially trails all major competitors, etc.

Even worse, you're always talking about "secret squirrel" killer features that Austin's got cooking in the kitchen - nudge, nudge, wink, wink - and we're all supposed to just breathlessly agree with you. Really?

You can't have it both ways as playing that tactic destroys your credibility.

Edited June 20, 20232 yr by UrgentSiesta
quote

19 minutes ago, jarmstro said:

At least Meyer was honest a while back. There are those for whom the flight model is everything. And there are those for whom the whole flight sim experience is more important. I class myself in the latter. But I still can't stand to watch, no offence intended, any video of this bellowing buffoon. 

What makes you say Austin is dishonest?

It's fairly clear that he became complacent when P3D was the only competition. And perhaps he mis-judged and therefore delayed his response to the overwhelming popularity of MSFS.

But he has unquestionably delivered the goods with XP v12, and he is continuing to improve the value prop as time goes on.

I am one of "those" flight model aficionados, and X-Plane delivers (though it still lags somewhat in Fast Jet FMs, but that's really an edge case in both sims).

MSFS is indeed a great overall experience, but it has plenty of frustrations, too. 

So much so that I usually ping-pong between the two...

They're really rather Yin/Yang, but both are more than good enough to earn my ongoing support.

Austin's "schtick" can be cringy. But he is incontrovertibly a genius, so "buffoon" is a complete misnomer. Instead, he's a stereotypical super-nerd, with all the social awkwardness that implies. 

But I don't care - the majority of his videos all have enough solid content to make them worthwhile.

And, y'know, he is a self-made multi-millionaire, so he's got plenty of cred in that regard, too.

Edited June 20, 20232 yr by UrgentSiesta

Any more name calling out there and major non-paid vacations will happen!  Don't look for the posts!  They have been removed! 😳

 

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It's obvious, the majority (I would say EVERYONE, because I never saw a single person expect a new version after 4 years.) took their original statements of "we're going to support MSFS for 10 years" as "You will get free updates for 10 years." Some of the regulars were gloating about how massively successful MSFS would be, that Asobo could afford to pump out free updates for 10 years.

This is the proof that Common Sense is...neither.

Quote

I only bought MSFS a few months ago, based on this statement.  Had I known they were going to push out a new version soon, I would have definitely waited.  

Why did you wait so long? And will you not get enough RoI from it in the year or so til 2024 releases that you could fairly consider it a waste of money?

Quote

I doubt anyone has an issue with a new version every 4 years.  It's the lack of comms that people are having an issue with.  There was not even a hint of a new version coming out.  It just looks like "We need more money.  Let's make a paid update and call it a new version."

See Common Sense, above.

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Asobo haven't even addressed all the bugs for the current version.  Coming out with a new version is indeed, premature at this time.  

Neither has Lockheed Martin. Nor Eagle Dynamics. And did XP v11 close out before "addressing all bugs"...?

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If they plan on equally supporting BOTH versions, and addressing issues in the current version, while supporting the new version, great.  

Shockingly, they've said that 2020 is going to continue to be not only supported, but will receive additional features, etc. We'll see how that plays out IRL...

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But I can't see how they could do that without pulling out some hair.

Agreed.

On 6/14/2023 at 5:29 PM, blingthinger said:

it really seems odd that they're suddenly hyping a second version if the cash flow is breaking the coffers.

No mystery: monthly recurring expenses are high, AND they're saying the advancements in the next version are substantial enough to warrant a new paid release.