Unless they can find a replacement.

 

 

Unfortunate, to say the least. 

Hopefully they will replace the planes, but I'm not optimistic.

This is yet another sign of the decline of the collective "West".  The money is running out, and you can only borrow for so long.  The USA is in the same position, but can still manage to borrow huge amounts, and could, if necessary, raise taxes, as ours are relatively low.

The shortsighted and foolish people of the West have squandered their wealth and continually voted themselves largess from the public treasuries, so it won't be easy to restore it, especially with policies and agendas that will only accelerate the decline, while other countries thrive and grow.

Margaret Thatcher said it best - "the problem with Socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money", and although we don't have outright Socialism, we do have mild forms of it, some countries more than others.

Dave

Don't worry, Dave. The sky is not, in fact, falling.

This appears to be, basically, some guy pushing a controversial viewpoint hard for the views and likes. Disclaimer: I did not watch the entire thing, for the same reason I didn't watch Oxyclean commercials.

For some background:

I was studying business and had been reading about getting free publicity. I walked into a client's office and saw a double page newspaper spread about him.  I was floored. You can't buy that kind of publicity. I asked how he'd done it and he said, "It's easy. You promote a viewpoint opposite to the prevailing wisdom." In this case he said "There has never been a better time to lease a car (his business) when prevailing wisdom was the opposite."

It's the old case of "Dog Bites Man, that is not news. Man Bites Dog will get headlines." I've seen people who built their entire career on it. It's basically a scam.

"Embrace what you see, not what you're told." -- Gutfeld.

Hook

1 hour ago, LHookins said:

This appears to be, basically, some guy pushing a controversial viewpoint hard for the views and likes. Disclaimer: I did not watch the entire thing

 

He's a former Tornado and Hawk instructor. And works as a consultant.

What he says is factual. The Hawk reaches the end of it's service life in 2030. They may be able to push it a bit further.

And as he said, we have no aircraft that could replace it, apart from prop driven trainers, and I don't think the reds flying prop planes would quite work. 🙄

 

Edited January 7, 20251 yr by martin-w

41 minutes ago, martin-w said:

He's a former Tornado and Hawk instructor.

Yes, I got that. He talked about it in the beginning.

41 minutes ago, martin-w said:

What he says is factual. The Hawk reaches the end of it's service life in 2030.

So how did he spin it? Instead of projecting Doom And Gloom he could have talked about what might replace these aircraft.

The headline was "RED ALERT! Red Arrows are DISAPPEARING in 2030!" How much more interesting would it have been if he'd asked what would replace the Hawk and given some possibilities?

41 minutes ago, martin-w said:

we have no aircraft that could replace it, apart from prop driven trainers

There has to be a jet powered transition trainer. They're not going to drop trainees into an F-35 or whatever to be their first encounter with jet aircraft. What will it be? I have no idea, I don't keep up with the technology. 

Unfortunately, Doom And Gloom sells, and some will believe it, bringing them down and making their lives a little more off-balance.  

Bottom line: don't worry about it.  Wait and see.  

Hook

Edited January 7, 20251 yr by LHookins

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

The shortsighted and foolish people of the West have squandered their wealth and continually voted themselves largess from the public treasuries,

Dave, you are always pointing out the people who receive social welfare.  But you never mention corporate welfare.  Why not?

https://stacker.com/business-economy/biggest-corporate-subsidies-last-20-years

I myself am almost totally dependent on public money from my military retirement pension to social security to Tricare for Life DOD pays for my healthcare.  The American taxpayer is supporting me.

Some day I would like to see what the return of government money for political campaign contributions is.  Those who spend thousands of dollars to get candidates elected expect a return on that investment. 

Blame the little guy for government largess and ignore the big guy for government largess are the rules of the game when it comes to government spending.

Noel

1 hour ago, LHookins said:

So how did he spin it? Instead of projecting Doom And Gloom he could have talked about what might replace these aircraft.

 

He did  in fact two of the possible aircraft he mentioned were aircraft he was responsible for procuring for the RAF. Both props. So no way will the reds want to be flying props. Plus the Aeralis, of course, which is a company he worked for. That will require significant funding, so he tells us, and whether it will be ready in 5 years is the question. 

 

1 hour ago, LHookins said:

There has to be a jet powered transition trainer. They're not going to drop trainees into an F-35 or whatever to be their first encounter with jet aircraft. What will it be? I have no idea, I don't keep up with the technology. 

 

There currently isn't. As you would have understood if you watched the whole video. 

He didn't say they were definitively gone. Just that if we don't find a replacement the reds will be gone, which is obvious. 

 

1 hour ago, LHookins said:

Unfortunately, Doom And Gloom sells, and some will believe it, bringing them down and making their lives a little more off-balance

 

No... the MOD have confirmed that 2030 is the date and a bit further if they can stretch it, but currently there's no alternative aircraft.

Cost is also a consideration and paying huge bucks for an aircraft for the red Arrows isn't going to happen. The Aeralis is an option, but its not available yet and requires funding. Other manufactures are a consideration, but as he points out, their aircraft are overkill and expensive. 

If you have an alternative aircraft in mind, let us know.

At this point, nobody knows what the solution will be. But one thing we know is that we'll need a new jet for them.

Edited January 7, 20251 yr by martin-w

Thats sad news.  I saw the Red Arrows perform last year here in SW Ontario Canada. Amazing show. Loved the 3 different colour smoke they use. 

Unfortuantly, I think the Canadian Snowbirds be in the same situation soon. 

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

I myself am almost totally dependent on public money from my military retirement pension to social security to Tricare for Life DOD pays for my healthcare.  The American taxpayer is supporting me.

I'm in the same boat.

Noel, something I learned a couple of days ago is that our very existence is helping keep the barbarians from the gate. They are afraid of us, at least of our mindset. And there are almost 16 million of us, about 6% of the population.

I was never so proud to be a veteran. Something I did in the 70s is still helping keep America safe.

 

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

At this point, nobody knows what the solution will be.

EXACTLY! And we are pretty good at finding solutions.

Hook

5 minutes ago, rickjake said:

Thats sad news.  I saw the Red Arrows perform last year here in SW Ontario Canada. Amazing show. Loved the 3 different colour smoke they use. 

Unfortuantly, I think the Canadian Snowbirds be in the same situation soon. 

 

Well, hopefully the Aeralis will be funded sufficiently and ready in time. I would guess they would have to stretch the current hawks out longer than 5 years though.

If I recall correctly, all they currently have is a mockup. 

 

Edited January 7, 20251 yr by martin-w

4 minutes ago, rickjake said:

That's sad news.

Actually, it's exciting news.

"The Red Arrows will be getting new aircraft by 2030! A search is already on for possible replacements."

Hook

8 minutes ago, LHookins said:

EXACTLY! And we are pretty good at finding solutions.

 

But can they do it before the Hawks are too old? Defense review is in the spring, so can Aeralis develop, test and provide an aircraft in 5 years? 

From the Aeralis website...

 

Quote

Ten years on and no decision has been made. MailOnline’s article comments: “Bristol-based AERALIS is in line to win the multi-million pound deal to build new jets for the Red Arrows…” but as AERALIS CEO and founder, Tristan Crawford, points out, there’s a problem with that statement: “It’s fantastic to be mentioned in this context, however a replacement aircraft hasn’t been requested yet, and it is this decision and commitment from Government that’s required to get the process of replacement underway, not just for the Reds, but for the UK’s future advanced jet training capability – and the opportunity to export that around the world.

 

https://aeralis.com/2025/01/07/if-they-do-not-get-new-aircraft-the-reds-are-finished/

Edited January 7, 20251 yr by martin-w

2 minutes ago, martin-w said:

From the Aeralis website...

Martin!!  NOW you're in the right headspace! 😄 

Some history:  From what I understand, the F-16 was not built to spec or to fulfill a contract. They just designed and built it, knowing someone would buy it. They were right.

Hook

4 minutes ago, LHookins said:

Some history:  From what I understand, the F-16 was not built to spec or to fulfill a contract. They just designed and built it, knowing someone would buy it. They were right.

 

Yes..... but to replace the Red Arrows Hawk the Aeralis will need to be ready in 5 years. Is that possible? Depends how much work the company have currently done, but from what I understand they only have a mockup.

My guess is that, as usual, it will be panic stations at the last minute, and the Red Arrows flying easier, low G, modified displays in aircraft that are beyond their use by date.

As for the F16... no, it was developed for USAF.