I came across this lecture by Physicist Leonard Susskind about the difficulty in making a round trip to Mars.  It certainly burst my bubble of enthusiasm, but forces me to be honest about the whole Mars Mission idea:

 

yeah, we ain't going nowhere

 

4 hours ago, dave2013 said:

I came across this lecture by Physicist Leonard Susskind about the difficulty in making a round trip to Mars. 

 

Dave... its AI. 

Doesn't even look like him. 

 

Edited April 30Apr 30 by martin-w

If the video does represent Suskind's opinion, there are a few inaccuracies. 

This below sounds about right to me...

 

It is technically possible but highly challenging for humans to reach Mars within twenty years (by 2046), with timelines for a first crewed landing ranging from the early 2030s to the 2050s depending on funding, technological breakthroughs, and risk tolerance. While SpaceX and NASA have ambitious goals, experts note significant hurdles remain. 

Key Projections and Timelines:

• Optimistic (2029–2030s): SpaceX's aim is to launch uncrewed Starships to Mars by 2026, followed by crewed missions shortly after if the landings are successful. Some analysts believe a small research station is possible by 2035–2040.
• Conservative (2030s–2040s): NASA officially targets the 2030s for a crewed mission, focusing first on returning to the Moon (Artemis program) to test technology.
• Long-Term: Many experts believe a sustainable colony or "fully inhabiting" Mars is more likely in the latter half of this century, or that it will take 50+ years to overcome the technical challenges. 

6 hours ago, dave2013 said:

I came across this lecture by Physicist Leonard Susskind about the difficulty in making a round trip to Mars.  It certainly burst my bubble of enthusiasm, but forces me to be honest about the whole Mars Mission idea:

If nothing else, the word "impossible" in the thumbnail should have alerted you that this was clickbait. Some people get their kicks destroying the dreams of others.

There are a lot more people professing to be experts than there are experts. Give them as much credence as you would a TV advertisement.

Hook

3 hours ago, martin-w said:

 

Dave... its AI. 

Doesn't even look like him. 

 

Unfortunately, it does look like him!  He may have combed his hair in the video!

My prior assertions in other related Threads still stand.

I find it interesting that SpaceX proposes to send unmanned Starships to Mars in CY 2026 when the farthest Starship has ever ventured is LEO... 

I grew up in an era when we believed that technology might eventually solve every problem.  I have not abandoned that belief.

Can we put men on Mars and return them safely to Earth?  I don't know.  Maybe not.  But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.  We will learn even from the failures.

Don't bother to be pessimistic. It doesn't help. 🙂

Hook

I did notice some odd image changes during the video, but I chalked that up to later editing done by the professor.  Maybe it is an AI video using snippets from actual videos of the real professor giving lectures and such, or maybe it's all total fakery.

The channel also has this disclaimer: "Some visuals and narration are AI-assisted and made for educational purposes", so indeed AI is used.

Leonard Susskind is an actual professor of theoretical Physics at Stanford University: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Susskind

If you watch the entire video, you'll know that he states several times that he's not saying a round trip manned mission to Mars is impossible.  He's saying that with current propulsion technology it is not feasible or practical.  He believes that nuclear thermal propulsion is the key to making a mission of this distance a reality as only half the fuel mass would be necessary compared to chemical rockets. 

I think his arguments are legit.

Dave

 

3 hours ago, dave2013 said:

If you watch the entire video, you'll know that he states several times that he's not saying a round trip manned mission to Mars is impossible.  He's saying that with current propulsion technology it is not feasible or practical.  He believes that nuclear thermal propulsion is the key to making a mission of this distance a reality as only half the fuel mass would be necessary compared to chemical rockets. 

 

Yep, apologies for not watching the entire video. I dont know when Susskind made the comments but nuclear thermal and nuclear electric is the plan. NASA are actively working on nuclear propulsion and plan to launch a nuclear powered spacecraft to Mars by 2028. Both nuclear electric and nuclear thermal are being actively worked on.

Several companies are doing the same, including Pulsar Fusion in the UK.

 

Edited May 1May 1 by martin-w

3 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Leonard Susskind is an actual professor of theoretical Physics

 

Yep, a very famous one. One of the founding fathers of string theory.

Dear Google AI Mode: 

Q " Is it likely that earthlings will visit Mars in the next 30 years? "

 

A:  " It is very likely that humans will visit Mars within the next 30 years, with current space agency and private industry timelines targeting missions between the late 2030s and 2050. While highly ambitious schedules for the 2020s have largely been postponed, a 30-year window (extending to 2056) aligns with the stated goals of major global space players. 

Projected Timelines

• NASA (Early 2040s): NASA's current plan aims for a human walk on Mars by 2040, using the Moon's Artemis Program as a "proving ground" to test long-term life support and deep-space operations.
• SpaceX (2030s–2050): While CEO Elon Musk has historically cited 2029 as a target, more recent projections focus on uncrewed test landings in the late 2020s and a self-sustaining settlement by 2050.
• China (2033–2040s): China has announced intentions for its first crewed Mars mission as early as 2033, though many experts view this as a highly aggressive target. 

Critical Hurdles to Overcome

Reaching Mars within 30 years depends on solving several extreme engineering and biological challenges:

• Landing Heavy Payloads: While rovers like Perserverance weighs about 1 ton, human missions require landing 50–100 tons. Mars' thin atmosphere makes current parachute technology insufficient for such weights.
• Radiation & Health: A round trip exposes astronauts to radiation levels near or exceeding career limits, risking cancer and DNA damage. Long-duration microgravity also causes significant muscle and bone density loss.
• In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU): To return home, astronauts must likely manufacture fuel and oxygen on the Martian surface. NASA has successfully tested this with the MOXIE  instrument, but it must be scaled up significantly.
• Communication Delays: Signals take 4 to 24 minutes to travel one way between Earth and Mars, meaning crews must be entirely autonomous during medical or technical emergencies. 
  It is very likely that humans will visit Mars within the next 30 years, with current space agency and private industry timelines targeting missions between the late 2030s and 2050. While highly ambitious schedules for the 2020s have largely been postponed, a 30-year window (extending to 2056) aligns with the stated goals of major global space players. 
  Projected Timelines
• NASA (Early 2040s): NASA's current plan aims for a human walk on Mars by 2040, using the Moon's Artemis program as a "proving ground" to test long-term life support and deep-space operations.
• SpaceX (2030s–2050): While CEO Elon Musk has historically cited 2029 as a target, more recent projections focus on uncrewed test landings in the late 2020s and a self-sustaining settlement by 2050.
• China (2033–2040s): China has announced intentions for its first crewed Mars mission as early as 2033, though many experts view this as a highly aggressive target.
• Critical Hurdles to Overcome
  Reaching Mars within 30 years depends on solving several extreme engineering and biological challenges:
• Landing Heavy Payloads: While rovers like Perseverance weigh about 1 ton, human missions require landing 50–100 tons. Mars' thin atmosphere makes current parachute technology insufficient for such weights.
• Radiation & Health: A round trip exposes astronauts to radiation levels near or exceeding career limits, risking cancer and DNA damage. Long-duration microgravity also causes significant muscle and bone density loss.
• In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU): To return home, astronauts must likely manufacture fuel and oxygen on the Martian surface. NASA has successfully tested this with the MOXIE instrument, but it must be scaled up significantly.
• Communication Delays: Signals take 4 to 24 minutes to travel one way between Earth and Mars, meaning crews must be entirely autonomous during medical or technical emergencies. "

7 hours ago, ViperPilot said:

I find it interesting that SpaceX proposes to send unmanned Starships to Mars in CY 2026 when the farthest Starship has ever ventured is LEO... 

 

Actually, not even LEO, yet. Next launch is in a few weeks. I think SpaceX said the following launch is LEO.

Next launch will be the new version of Starship, which has pretty much been rebuilt from the ground up. With lessons learnt from previous versions. This version is LEO and orbital refuelling capable.

Volunteer someone you don't like to go to Mars (the health issues are very serious). 

4 hours ago, Fielder said:

Volunteer someone you don't like to go to Mars (the health issues are very serious). 

 

Challenging but not insurmountable.

Nuclear thermal or electric reduces the travel time substantially and there are methods to protect the crew from cosmic rays. On the surface of Mars, the astronauts habitats can be shielded assistant the higher radiation on Mars. Lower gravity, of course, but the 38% of Earths gravity is enough to mitigate any serious health concerns for the relatively short duration of the mission.