After pondering the insightful analysis presented by some within this thread, I think there is a huge pending sea change that may swing things deep and wide in X-plane's favour, depending..
If P3D v4 and/or DTS Next are 64 bit but are not backward compatible for accumulated FSX and/or P3D version 3.x add-ons such as ORBX and Aerosoft etc., the hobby will divide, split and separate into various divisions along the following lines:
-FSX (steady erosion of base, declining)
-FSX-SE (erosion of initial base and buy-in, declining)
-P3D 4.x (unknown but if bare and not backwards compatible, limited hobby growth)
-P3D 3.x (If static and/or officially unsupported or marketed, declining)
-DTS FS (Wild card, but if bare and not backwards compatible, limited growth but unknown)
-Other partial simulations, platforms (like Aerofly) and games breaking into the marketplace
X-Plane ( Will likely keep base, and increase market share from former FSX, FSX-SE, P3D v. 3.x customers)
So, all this change is likely to put rocket boosters under X-Plane if they aggressively pursue those who are negatively effected. In some respect the greater the chaos amongst the others, the greater the opportunity for X-Plane to jump in the driver's seat...maybe!
Just thinking...
Kind regards,