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China to surpass US as world's largest air travel market

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"The global airline industry group [IATA] anticipates that 7.8 billion passengers will travel by air by 2036. That's nearly double the 4 billion it anticipates will fly this year.

The IATA forecast, released Tuesday, said it expects that half of the new passengers who will fly over the next 20 years will live in Asia. While IATA predicts significant changes over the next two decades, the most dramatic shifts will happen in the next five years.

China will displace the U.S. as the world's largest aviation market by 2022, two years sooner than previously expected, the IATA forecast predicts. An aviation market is defined as traffic to, from and within a country."

Full article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-will-be-the-largest-market-for-flying-a-lot-sooner-than-people-thought/ar-AAu6zDy

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But of course. Do you know how many people are in China besides in the U.S.??? The problem is to figure it out, if the airlines will remain in business for so long.

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Also the US has an extensive highway system and is wedded to the automobile.

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In a few years, China will be (in nominal dollars) the largest economy in the world, as it has been for 19 out of the last 20 centuries. After the British Empire Century (19th) and the American Century (20th), there's a high probability that we're entering the Chinese Century. Let's hope not many decades will pass before it will transition to a full democracy.

 

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It's inevitable really, each empire has its time and gives way to the next one, sometimes willingly, sometimes less so. The tiger economies of a few decades ago made it very apparent this kind of thing was on the way. Western nations have enjoyed the lifestyle made possible by their manufacturing base for decades, but now having ceded that manufacturing to Asia, those nations now get to have their turn at being the major superpowers, with the attendant populace who want the trappings which go with that status quo, such as consumer goods and holidays abroad etc, so it's obvious air travel will be a growth area, whereas it'll be our turn to be the third world lol.

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If anything, the direction of the international economy is now trending towards protectionism. That may make China the biggest economy, but the "Age of Empires" is over unless the trend reverses. Every country's economy will probably end up directly proportional to its population, tempered by the availability of raw materials. Countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia presently buy a lot of manufactured goods from China, but those countries and others will eventually find it more cost-effective to manufacture products domestically. And then there's the issue of natural resources, especially reserves of fossil fuels. As protectionism gains momentum, the lack of natural resources will slow manufacturing in certain countries. Why do you think China is such a proponent of solar energy?

Or increased protectionism could just be a passing fad and the trend towards a global economy will eventually obliterate all national boundaries.

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The issue is simple, When you look at days off per year the USA is around bottom compared to a few others, for example, compared to New Zealand you can take a job at McDonald's and with government standards you currently get $15.75 an hour, plus 4 weeks paid days off, plus 11 paid public holidays off, plus at least 4 to 6 days paid Sick days off per year. Also Government Medical Insurance included as your employer pays it, plus free Automobile Insurance as it is paid at the Gas Pump and you don't have to have an insurance policy to drive a car....and this is for a simple McDonald's Employee in New Zealand

USA gets nothing like that, therefore Americans wouldn't get a passport because you have no reason for it because after you get your few days off per year, paid all your medical and auto insurance and all other things and everything you have to deal with, even if you got a passport what are you supposed to do with it?

In New Zealand for years our largest tourist industry has been from the United Kingdom, Germany and China, even from people working in low wage jobs in those nations. The world is big and we share it. It is unfortunate the the USA is only 4.4% of the global population and I live in New Zealand and rarely meet Americans. I would like to see more as my Mother was born in New Jersey and Americans are cool but getting the shaft big time....

I only say things like this as things are disappointing. A McDonald's Employee in New Zealand make more money, more support, and more medical compared to a regional pilot in the USA with 5 year experience, really open up your eyes and figure it out, something is very broken.

 

AND YES CHINA is our largest visitor in New Zealand, American's have become very low in our income scale....figure it out...

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Hi Folks,

New Zealand is high on my places to see - the natural beauty seems amazing - it's on my bucket list.. It's really the distance (from New York) - costs - and - I haven't had more than a week off of work since I'm 13... I would need two weeks to travel so far... Someday...

Regards,
Scott

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Other reasons Americans don't flock to New Zealand and Australia: 1, It's one hell of a long plane ride. 2. Many Americans simply prefer to go to Europe. The vacation time here is not nearly as Draconian as presented. Typically the longer you are on the job the more vacation you get. I'm sure that I would enjoy New Zealand or Australia, but for me the expense puts them down the list. Just my thoughts.

 

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My brother has been trying to visit me for the past 5 years, he lives in Chicago and every year he asks his boss for the time to come to New Zealand and his boss always says no. This year he finally got time and he is coming in November for 10 days. He worked his vacation around Thanksgiving to get some extra time. 10 days is not enough for New Zealand but we will make the best of it.

But it is true he is a Sales Engineer now in his 50's and works hard his entire life and puts in a lot of hours, he only gets 2 weeks off a year. A McDonald's Employee in New Zealand gets 35 or 36 paid days off a year from just starting out. I think the USA and Japan are at the bottom for time off for people, work until you drop. 

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I would say that your brother should change jobs, but being in his 50's would make that a hazardous move. Some people just have lousy bosses. Your brother seems to be the unfortunate victim. Since so many jobs have gone overseas, this situation became more prevalent. Also, I assume that your brother has a great deal of experience and probably is a key employee. Bosses like his use any number of excuses. I feel for him. I always had 2 weeks starting and 3 after 3 years and 6 after 10 years, but that was years ago.

 

Bill W

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18 hours ago, BillW said:

I would say that your brother should change jobs, but being in his 50's would make that a hazardous move. Some people just have lousy bosses. Your brother seems to be the unfortunate victim. Since so many jobs have gone overseas, this situation became more prevalent. Also, I assume that your brother has a great deal of experience and probably is a key employee. Bosses like his use any number of excuses. I feel for him. I always had 2 weeks starting and 3 after 3 years and 6 after 10 years, but that was years ago.

 

Bill W

Yes you are correct, he has been in his area of expertise since his early 20's so he has a lot of experience, but the operations in that field keep getting bought and sold by global companies and moved around, and new owners prefer process operations over human experience, but still need the older guys around to make things happen, so a lot of people no longer get treated very well. Back when he started out it was a local entrepreneur that setup a machine shop with a few investors and took a product or a system to market, and with that built a team of dedicated people to make things happen, those days are long gone now.

I remember my first job in Toronto was 2 weeks starting and 3 after 3 years and 6 after 10 years as well, I left that company when I was at 9 years and 10 months so I never got to have my 6 weeks off. I am sure a lot of companies don't do that anymore either. This is why I like New Zealand's approach. Everyone gets 34 to 36 paid days off per year regardless of how many years you work or who you work for, unless an employer offers more (but they wouldn't). You can leave your job and start somewhere else and this will always be your same time off regardless. Makes for a happy workforce

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I think the three superpowers, Russia, China and the US have such interdependent economies that they will all thrive this coming century.  We may have our spats and disputes, but you don't nuke your trading partners, it would cause a world wide economic collapse and take us back to the horse and buggy.  I think even North Korea and the Middle East will understand that eventually.  The Chinese were impressed with Marco Polo because it opened up trade, trade is just essential regardless of whether a country is capitalist or socialist or run by absolute power.  You contribute to the economy.  Every time I buy a payware product for the sims, I am proud that I am contributing and fostering the success of community members.  I bought a lot of Carenado products because I felt they are CAD artists, maybe their systems aren't the hottest, but I prefer to hand fly and use a simple autopilot interface over fully automating the flight.

China will eventually become a diplomatic superpower.  They are moving into the seas to prevent piracy, which is becoming rampant worldwide.  All three superpowers are cooperating on piracy.  The combined navies of the US, Britain, France, China and Russia are essential to our worldwide economy.  North Korea is an isolationist country, they simply want to be left alone, but eventually their window to the outside world will open up.  They are curious about us--who are we, why do we survive, why have we restrained ourselves from attacking them.  They know they could be taken out if they tried a nuclear strike.  And I believe they might have learned something from their last nuclear test, it caused a massive earthquake that was felt in China.  It quite possibly might have been one of the biggest nuclear explosions on record.  I believe the nuclear accident in Japan may have been a blessing in disguise, our planet's core needs to stay hot and active, it is essential to protect us from too much solar radiation.

Eventually what I think will happen is the three superpowers will detect an asteroid inbound, threatening the earth again.  Just like the movies, they will use their nuclear arsenals to deflect it.  It sounds Utopian, I simply feels as time goes on we all will be drawn together to save the human race from destructive, space borne threats.

John

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1 hour ago, Cactus521 said:

Eventually what I think will happen is the three superpowers will detect an asteroid inbound, threatening the earth again.  Just like the movies, they will use their nuclear arsenals to deflect it.  It sounds Utopian, I simply feels as time goes on we all will be drawn together to save the human race from destructive, space borne threats.

John

You know that NASA and POCKOCMOC have actually done feasibility studies on that for real? Even more amazingly, the Russian space agency were actually considering doing it, in order to deflect the asteroid Apophis away from Earth (this was about ten years ago), but since Apophis only had a one in a quarter of a million chance of hitting our planet, they didn't go ahead with the plan.

The problem is however, it would apparently only take an asteroid approximately 400 meters wide to wipe out the planet (anything coming at us bigger than that would be classed as an extinction-level threat). This is where one has to be just a little bit concerned with the feasibility since the biggest known asteroid is Ceres (sometimes referred to as a dwarf planet), which is getting on for 2,000 times the size of that extinction-level size classification (Ceres is about 933 kilometers wide), so its a bit less than one twelfth the size of Earth, or more or less the size of France if you prefer that in more easily recognisable geographic terms. If something the size of France ever decides to say Bonjour to us whilst travelling at 25 kilometers per second, which is how fast those things are typically travelling, it's gonna take more than a few nukes to persuade it otherwise lol, however, it does make for some fun movies.

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