12 hours ago, Bobsk8 said:

So your premise is the general public is totally disinterested  regarding  aviation safety so Boeing will go on as usual... Interesting. 

I get quite a number of visitors here in Dublin, all arriving by air (I personally love coming and going by boat, at least when traveling to GB or the Continent) - and have relatives in Canada & Australia. Since I pick them up at the airport I usually track their flights, to check for delays. Just for fun I will often have a quick chat about the plane they flew in - and pretty much none of them even have a clue who built the thing, let alone what model it was. If I'm lucky, they might just know which airline they came over on... And we're talking here about a range covering tech- and social media-savv teens all the way through to settled and experienced grandmothers and -fathers. Everything bigger than a 737 is a jumbo (which has not landed here for decades), and the smaller ones are always Airbuses (which they aren't, especially when they fly Ryanair). So, yeah, I'd go along with thegreen and hazard a guess that the vast majority couldn't give a toss...

 

Cheers

 

Mallard

As of now it`s not the aircraft but the company who`s reputation has been damaged, the fact that the FAA and Boeing pushed this out for service with so many faults, now the FAA are doing there job they should have done and have found loads of faults with the aircraft.

23 hours ago, Bobsk8 said:

So your premise is the general public is totally disinterested  regarding  aviation safety so Boeing will go on as usual... Interesting. 

That's not my premise at all.

What I said is that the general flying public don't have a clue of anything in aviation which goes deeper than ticket prices and airline/airport customer service. Most have actually forgotten about the accidents or didn't even follow in the first place. I expect the news that it's back in the air will be nowhere near as breaking and popular as those in the first two months after the second accident and most probably won't even notice. I therefore think after some initial public spotlight upon the plane's return, most people will forget.

I also didn't say Boeing will go on as usual. I said the MAX will, in my view, go on as "usual" like the DC-10 did once it's fixed and properly tested/re-certified. Boeing will face lawsuits, intense scrutiny, etc. and the resulting changes so as a company, they will definitely not go on as usual.

 

23 hours ago, Jim Young said:

I do hope Boeing will suck up the loss and move on.  I would suspect they could convert all of the aircraft to just 737's using the older technology so the loss would not be devastating and Boeing employees could continue to work.

Converting a MAX into an NG isn't as feasible as it might seem. There are the obvious differences like the new engines, newly designed tail cone, new split scimitars and updated flight deck. However, significant change has occurred 'under the hood' like the integration of the fly-by-wire spoiler system and all the new software. While not so visually prominent and not even that obvious to pilots to reduce training and to uphold commonality, the MAX differs from the NG way more than it may seem.

Moreover, the amount of orders speaks volumes as to the importance of the aircraft in the industry, and only very few orders have actually been withdrawn or converted (probably not even linked to the aircraft's safety status but rather to economic factors like delivery delays). Commonality and low operating costs of the MAX are the driving force behind the amount of orders and a substantial advantage over the NG. Airlines like United are even making this aircraft a remarkable part of their narrow-body fleet. I'd imagine the airlines that have placed orders would seriously frown upon getting NGs instead (not that NGs would be a bad alternative). There's significant demand for the MAX 10 as well which wouldn't even see the light of day if the MAXs were somehow back-engineered to NGs.

There really isn't anything which would suggest they would have to discontinue and scrap the aircraft. It has its flaws, obviously, but, from what we know, I do think it's more of a question of when it will be flying again rather than if. Boeing are in a mess right now to put it mildly and they're facing hard times ahead, but I can't see them going down.

2 hours ago, threegreen said:

That's not my premise at all.

What I said is that the general flying public don't have a clue of anything in aviation which goes deeper than ticket prices and airline/airport customer service. Most have actually forgotten about the accidents or didn't even follow in the first place. I expect the news that it's back in the air will be nowhere near as breaking and popular as those in the first two months after the second accident and most probably won't even notice. I therefore think after some initial public spotlight upon the plane's return, most people will forget.

L.A. Times article June 4 2019: Many fliers say they will avoid Boeing’s 737 Max even if it’s cleared to fly

Quote

 

"At least 20% of U.S. travelers say they will definitely avoid the plane in the first six months after flights resume, according to a study led by consultant Henry Harteveldt. More than 40% said they’d be willing to take pricier or less convenient flights to stay off the Max. A separate UBS Group AG survey found that 70% would hesitate today to book a flight on Boeing’s bestselling jet.

“Travelers aren’t merely scared of the 737 Max, they’re terrified of it,” Harteveldt, president of Atmosphere Research Group, said in the report, which was released Tuesday. “The 737 Max is, for now, an ‘airplane non grata’ — a plane passengers do not want to fly.”

 

More:

Travel and Liesure June 17 2019: "Passengers Say They'd Wait to Ride the Boeing 737 Max Again"

The Independent June 20 2019: "Majority of Travelers Would Avoid Flying In Boeing 737 Max After Its Two Fatal Crashes"

And that was just a quick Google search of what's been published recently. There may be a "recently in the news" effect here that will wear off over time, but I don't think the general public is as clueless about this as some are suggesting here. 

The problem Boeing and the airlines have, is that they can't predict with any certainty how much resistance the public will have for booking flights on a Max until it's actually back in service. And the day that happens, media will be all over the "Fix" like flies on word not allowed, which isn't going to help.

I imagine talks are underway right now about whether to risk the introduction, or just do cargo conversions and move on with Boeing's other models.

It`s not the public that Boeing have to regain trust with but the airlines they will now be reluctant to put all there trust in one manufacture, and cancelled orders cost money.  

On 7/25/2019 at 1:04 PM, mwilk said:

Well done. I'm a retired US Airways\AA employee.

I've learnt 2 things in this game. 

1. When the senior management start saying 'don't worry everything will be fine'.  You know they are about to make redundancies.

2. When you come in for a nightshift and all the cheif execs cars are in the car park, you know you are one of above redundancies. 

 

But youre right it's always the little people that get hurt the most, the office cleaner with 2 jobs.  The night security guy on the front door.

(It's shame the pilots at BA don't care about them when they do their selfish strike.) 

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by fluffyflops

8 hours ago, rjfry said:

It`s not the public that Boeing have to regain trust with but the airlines they will now be reluctant to put all there trust in one manufacture, and cancelled orders cost money.  

We already have alot of pax at virgin asking the check in staff "is the plane one of those 'max' planes" and we don't even have the max. 

It's going to hit boeing hard. 

I tend to try and be rational instead of emotional. All flights on all Boeing   airliners are safer than driving down the freeway in your own automobile.

Worrying by others drives down my ticket prices paid, by the rule of supply and demand, e.g. the year or so after 9-11.

52 minutes ago, fluffyflops said:

We already have alot of pax at virgin asking the check in staff "is the plane one of those 'max' planes" and we don't even have the max. 

It's going to hit boeing hard. 

It`s hit the airlines harder some are going under , and the airlines know why the inquiry found that had the FAA done the job they are supposed to do this may have been avoided. 

It is almost certainly true that Joe Blow can probably only recognise a few aeroplanes, and I'd say that was a fairly short list too: Concorde, 747, Fokker Dr1 Triplane (if it is a red one), Spitfire (unless they saw a Hurricane and thought that was one too) and the Space Shuttle Orbiter. After that most people wouldn't have a clue which aeroplane is which - every big plane is a Jumbo, every little one is a Cessna - which is a factor that plays to Boeing's advantage from a PR standpoint; a 737 does look like a 757 and indeed an A320 or A321 to most people.

However if, for example, Ryanair switched over to an all-MAX fleet as is their plan, passengers wouldn't need to be great at aircraft recognition; a few 'ooh, don't fly on one of those' comments on Facetube or Twatter would be more than enough to do some damage to Ryanair's bookings when passengers have the alternative of booking with Easyjet at a similar price, and with not a single Boeing in its fleet of any kind, let alone a 737 MAX, Easyjet would certainly reap the benefits of this.

The public who depart from Manchester could hardly fail to be aware of the issues with the 737 MAX if they happen to be either flying with Ryanair currently, or any other airline taking off from 23R (that'd be all of them), wherein you taxi past and hold near the airport's impromptu MAX storage area: Right at the end of 23R is where not only most Ryanair flights board, giving passengers a lovely view of a bunch of mothballed TUI MAXs. You can also see these even when not actually on the airport, as you come down the new approach road to the airport from the Styal side, i.e. the way almost everyone using the airparks does (i.e. every passenger who uses the airport).

If anyone thinks people don't notice that sort of thing, talk about it and become concerned, consider this: Quite some way off to the other side of the runway from where those TUI 737 MAXs are stored, is a mock up of part of an airliner which the Manchester Airport Firefighters occasionally use to practice firefighting techniques on. Over the years it has become very blackened from having been set on fire many times, so they have painted it black now, which ironically actually makes it appear like the remains of an even worse accident.

Thus quite a few passengers have mistakenly thought it was a crashed and burned out aircraft, some have even though it was the remains of British Airtours Flight 28M which was destroyed at Manchester - coincidentally also a Boeing 737, model 200 - when it suffered an uncontained engine disintegration on its take off roll, a ruptured a fuel tank subsequently caused a fire which spread rapidly to the cabin, resulting in the deaths of 55 passengers and crew and many more serious injuries.This was a landmark accident in that it changed many safety procedures for every airline. This has led the airport to paint very obvious white lettering on the side of the practice firefighting rig, pointing out what it is, but this has not done the trick completely. Many passengers still think it is a crashed aeroplane wreck, and so it is planned that this will eventually be removed and a new training rig will be built, this time well out of sight of passengers.

Thus it isn't the truth which matters, it's what people think that matters. And this is the difficulty Boeing will have when they fix the MAX. But, people are always going to want to fly, and cheaply, and so in this case Ryanair could well turn out to be one of Boeing's biggest friends in European PR, in sticking with the MAX and riding out the storm. Knowing Michael O'Leery as we do, I daresay he's already got some deal with Boeing which will compensate his company for being Boeing's whipping boy for a couple of years until the MAX has regained a safe reputation. Expect to see super cheap Ryanair seats for a while to facilitate this, and expect Boeing to be taking the hit financially for these cheap seats on Ryanair jets.

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by Chock

3 hours ago, Fielder said:

I tend to try and be rational instead of emotional. All flights on all Boeing   airliners are safer than driving down the freeway in your own automobile.

Worrying by others drives down my ticket prices paid, by the rule of supply and demand, e.g. the year or so after 9-11.

the general public (pax)  know about as much as aviation as you and me  know about aubergine farming.  not much.  The vast majority get on a plane once a year and 2 weeks later have forgotton about it.

 

3 hours ago, rjfry said:

It`s hit the airlines harder some are going under , and the airlines know why the inquiry found that had the FAA done the job they are supposed to do this may have been avoided. 

ive got 2 mates at Norweign based in their OCC in barcelona, they are bricking it.  Its just a matter of time.  As i said before will they be able claim off boeing for a proper hefty amount to pay all their staff a good reduncency package , absolutly not.   Will the execs at Norweign walk away with a huge payout, absolultly yes. 

as mentioned above, its the little man right at the bottom that gets hurt the most.  The usa government wont allow big lawsuits to happen.  No different to the rolls royce engine issue. 

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by fluffyflops

On 7/26/2019 at 8:33 PM, Bobsk8 said:

So your premise is the general public is totally disinterested  regarding  aviation safety so Boeing will go on as usual... Interesting. 

20 years in the business, as mentioned above they dont know about aviation. 

Having done 3 courses with Kenyon International they specilise with brand image after an incident.  In short the general public are not that bright.  if you walked around london this afternoon and asked 1000 people which 2 airlines had crashes recently with the max, i bet 90 percent wouldnt be able to tell you.

You could ask the same 1000 people which airline had a pilot suicide into the alps, id say the same again 90% wouldnt be able to tell you if it was german wings.

People are essentialy not interested, they care about their jobs, their kids and what junk on TV not which airline has had a crash and why.  

 

21 hours ago, Paraffin said:

L.A. Times article June 4 2019: Many fliers say they will avoid Boeing’s 737 Max even if it’s cleared to fly

More:

Travel and Liesure June 17 2019: "Passengers Say They'd Wait to Ride the Boeing 737 Max Again"

The Independent June 20 2019: "Majority of Travelers Would Avoid Flying In Boeing 737 Max After Its Two Fatal Crashes"

And that was just a quick Google search of what's been published recently. There may be a "recently in the news" effect here that will wear off over time, but I don't think the general public is as clueless about this as some are suggesting here.

Nothing personal, but to be honest with you, these 'surveys' are worth next to nothing in my opinion. Go and ask people "would you fly on the plane that recently crashed twice because it has issues?". You know what kind of answers you'll get. It's the minority who will say "when it's safe again I will".

If the latest estimation turns out to be accurate, we'll not see the MAX fly until at least January. If it's cleared to fly again then, give it some time and things will go back to normal. I'm not saying there won't be an initial reluctance to fly on a MAX, but I honestly can't see it fail because people will boycott the plane still in years to come.

 

21 hours ago, Paraffin said:

I imagine talks are underway right now about whether to risk the introduction, or just do cargo conversions and move on with Boeing's other models.

As I said in an earlier post, the amount of orders shows the importance of the plane in the industry. It's needed and it's popular: it's Boeing's fastest ever selling jet. Boeing are still producing 42 per month even if they say they are going to have to halt production if the grounding goes on too long, which is obvious. Plus, Boeing don't have any other models in the narrow-body segment other than the MAX. They just rescheduled a decision on whether they'll even do the NMA to 2020 which seems to rather annoy some potential customers. They also can't go for a new, fresh design now because that would take a decade and they would lose the whole narrow-body market to Airbus I'd imagine.

There is no way it's not going to be put back in service once Boeing get their fluffy stuff together.

The public has short term memory, as soon as those planes go back into service people will for the most part board them not really even knowing what model aircraft they are getting on, all they know is they have a meeting in Cleveland they have to get to

When they get them sorted I wouldn't have a problem getting on one, I've taking far greater risks in my lifetime, just driving to work is a greater risk.

Edited July 28, 20196 yr by Matthew Kane