Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[KevinAu 441]

34 minutes ago, n4gix said:

While a laudable and factual suggestion, there aren't enough masks for current medical personnel, much less everyone in the US (or any country really). Keep in mind as well that ordinary paper masks are single-use items, so everyone would need to have at least one for every day of the year...

Over 90% of regular masks are made in China, which of course makes resupply problematic at best, impossible at worst. Even surgical masks are in critically short supply at this time, and "painter's masks" are pretty much out of stock as well.

I realize that. But don’t let perfect be the enemy of good enough. Any mask will do. Use one for the duration if you have no choice. Remember, the point is not to keep from contracting the disease. Listen to what I am saying. I capitalize. THE POINT IS TO KEEP YOU FROM SPITTING OUT THE DISEASE THAT YOU DON’T KNOW YOU HAVE. That is the difference in thinking between the asian man and the white man. That is why those in asia survive this while our world is crashing. Even the cdc is telling medical personnel now to reuse masks, or just use a scarf. Any mask is good enough. N95 is so a first world requirement.

[KevinAu 441]

4 minutes ago, birdguy said:

The tip of the economic iceberg.  The economic effects of this will last longer than the health effects.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-jobless-claims-record-forecast-layoffs-unemployment-coronavirus-economy-gs-2020-3-1029016767

Yes, I am a contrarian of sorts.  Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong.  I might be wrong here, but I don't think so.  I did spark the conversation though.

Noel

And the economic hardship was so avoidable. Just wear a mask.

[W2DR 1,866]

22 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

And the economic hardship was so avoidable. Just wear a mask.

And where may I ask do you find the masks to buy? Not a viable solution.

[KevinAu 441]

2 minutes ago, W2DR said:

And where may I ask do you find the masks to buy? Not a viable solution.

Make your own if you have to. Realistically, at this point, producing adequate numbers of masks requires federal action. We had two months to prepare for this. But we squandered all that time, didn’t we? That is really the only viable solution. All other courses of action will destroy the economy. So perhaps there are no ‘viable’ solutions. And we should accept that our economy is about to be completely destroyed.

[Dominique_K 10,156]

On one side : the CDC and all the most prestigious bio research institutes, the US Surgeon General and all the ministries of Health of the Western world

On the other side : Noel

'nuf said, this discussion doesn't make sense anymore. Flatearthers and antivaxxers are also contrarians.

 

30 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

Make your own if you have to. Realistically, at this point, producing adequate numbers of masks requires federal action. We had two months to prepare for this. But we squandered all that time, didn’t we? That is really the only viable solution. All other courses of action will destroy the economy. So perhaps there are no ‘viable’ solutions. And we should accept that our economy is about to be completely destroyed.

My understanding from what I've read from US and French sources is that homemade masks don't protect you. They could be harmful if they give people a false sense of security.  Confinement and social  distanciation are not a miracle solution either but are hopefully more efficient to stop, not the disease, but the growth of pandemic. So that hospitals could cope with a great in any case but not overwhelming number of patients. 

The pandemic is  worrisome but this is not Apocalypse Now. We should not go from one extreme (do as if nothing has happened) to the other (Doomsday is a comin')  In the early twentieth centry the Spanish Flu killed tens of millions of people. The world economy survived.  This is of course, a personal opinion not a prediction 😉.

Edited March 20, 2020 by domkle

[Bob Scott 7,783]

1 hour ago, KevinAu said:

I realize that. But don’t let perfect be the enemy of good enough. Any mask will do. Use one for the duration if you have no choice. Remember, the point is not to keep from contracting the disease. Listen to what I am saying. I capitalize. THE POINT IS TO KEEP YOU FROM SPITTING OUT THE DISEASE THAT YOU DON’T KNOW YOU HAVE. That is the difference in thinking between the asian man and the white man. That is why those in asia survive this while our world is crashing. Even the cdc is telling medical personnel now to reuse masks, or just use a scarf. Any mask is good enough. N95 is so a first world requirement.

China had over 80,000 reported infections despite widespread mask usage...it took draconian controls imposed to freeze their population's movement and social interaction to slow the spread, asians or not.  Fomite transmission (transfer of an infectious agent via a contaminated surface) isn't mitigated with masks, and the medical profession is telling us airborne transmission isn't mitigated significantly more with a mask than by maintaining a ~2m standoff distance from others. Medical professionals that have to work with infected patients well inside that 2m standoff distance gain *some* additional mitigation effect, hence the desire to prioritize availability to them vs the general population.

At this point, the biggest difference between the US, the EU, and Asia is where we are on the growth curve relative to the arrival of the first vector in the region (time from D0 or often more practically measured as time from D100, the first day that 100 infections were confirmed).  We're (US) just now going vertical...the EU is a week or two ahead of us, and China is 45 days ahead of us.

I'm quite confident that if it were truly as simple as just having the populace wearing masks, every country in the free world would be cranking them out by the millions. and there would be no quarantines in place.  Nobody wants this happening, least of all the political leaders that are making difficult calls that for many will prove career-ending, no matter how justified these painful measure are.  There's a reason that epidemiologists the world over are jumping up and down like Peter Rabbit--it's obvious to them that doing too little too late, or worse--nothing at all--has a high probability of permitting a clearly foreseeable and staggering loss of life similar in magnitude to a global war.

[KevinAu 441]

4 minutes ago, domkle said:

On one side : the CDC and all the most prestigious bio research institutes, the US Surgeon General and all the ministries of Health of the Western world

On the other side : Noel

'nuf said, this discussion doesn't make sense anymore. Flatearthers and antivaxxers are also contrarians.

 

My understanding from what I've read from US and French sources is that homemade masks don't protect you. They could be harmful if they give people a false sense of security.  Confinement and social  distanciation are not a miracle solution either but are hopefully more efficient to stop, not the disease, but the growth of pandemic. So that hospitals could cope with a great in any case but not overwhelming number of patients. 

The pandemic is  worrisome but this is not Apocalypse Now. We should not go from one extreme (do as if nothing has happened) to the other (Doomsday is a comin')  In the early twentieth centry the Spanish Flu killed tens of millions of people. The world economy survived.  This is of course, a personal opinion not a prediction 😉.

Again, the mask is not to protect you. Read again what I wrote. It is meant to keep your spit to yourself. It is meant to protect society, not you or yourself. But if society is protected. so will the individual. It won’t work unless everyone participates. That is why it is mandated in asia by the governments. The paradigm difference in thinking between us here in the west and asia is that in asia, they think of the mask as keeping it in, while we think it keeps out. We need to use the mask as a ‘keep in’ so that we can keep our society going.

[n4gix 4,970]

1 hour ago, KevinAu said:

Listen to what I am saying. I capitalize. THE POINT IS TO KEEP YOU FROM SPITTING OUT THE DISEASE THAT YOU DON’T KNOW YOU HAVE..

Kevin, that much is obvious, at least to me. I spent a few years as a paramedic in my much younger years, so I'm quite familiar with what masks can and cannot do. In fact I automatically assume anyone wearing a mask just might be infected and give them an even wider berth than six feet...

I agree that in an ideal set of circumstances everyone would wear a mask just to be proactive. Unfortunately it simply isn't possible because of a severe shortage of them at this time.

[KevinAu 441]

7 minutes ago, w6kd said:

I'm quite confident that if it were truly as simple as just having the populace wearing masks, every country in the free world would be cranking them out by the millions. and there would be no quarantines in place.  Nobody wants this happening, least of all the political leaders that are making difficult calls that for many will prove career-ending, no matter how justified these painful measure are.  There's a reason that the epidemiologists the world over are jumping up and down like Peter Rabbit--it's obvious to them that doing too little too late, or worse--nothing at all--has a high probability of permitting a clearly foreseeable and staggering loss of life similar in magnitude to a global war.

No, if’s not that simple. But I can only write so much in one post and I have to be blunt to make a point. So I’ll keep moving to the next point. This is not new. Asia has already gone through these events before. There is a playbook. And we are not following it. We have the luxury of watching china 45 days ahead. We could have prepared. We could have instituted the quarantines and restrictions sooner. We could have began converting production and ordering more masks weeks ago. We could have ordered a general shutdown for a month, two weeks ago. At least that would have been definite and short lived enough for the economy to survive. The indefinite and enduring nature of our reluctant, gradualistic and scattered response is what is really destroying our economy.

[Dominique_K 10,156]

6 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

Again, the mask is not to protect you. Read again what I wrote. It is meant to keep your spit to yourself. It is meant to protect society, not you or yourself. But if society is protected. so will the individual. It won’t work unless everyone participates. That is why it is mandated in asia by the governments. The paradigm difference in thinking between us here in the west and asia is that in asia, they think of the mask as keeping it in, while we think it keeps out. We need to use the mask as a ‘keep in’ so that we can keep our society going.

Yes, I understand, I didn't make myself clear in my answer. The  homemade masks don't protect you from harming other I should have rather written. This is what I understand at least. If you have sources which say otherwise, serious sources like the CDC, FDA or their equivalent, I'd be interested. Read also Bob Scott's well argumented post above

[KevinAu 441]

8 minutes ago, n4gix said:

Kevin, that much is obvious, at least to me. I spent a few years as a paramedic in my much younger years, so I'm quite familiar with what masks can and cannot do. In fact I automatically assume anyone wearing a mask just might be infected and give them an even wider berth than six feet...

I agree that in an ideal set of circumstances everyone would wear a mask just to be proactive. Unfortunately it simply isn't possible because of a severe shortage of them at this time.

They are capable of doing that in Asia. Why can’t we?

[KevinAu 441]

1 minute ago, domkle said:

Yes, I understand, I didn't make myself clear in my answer. The  homemade masks don't protect you from harming other I should have rather written. This is what I understand at least. If you have sources which say otherwise, serious sources like the CDC, FDA or their equivalent, I'd be interested. Read also Bob Scott's well argumented post above

The cdc recommended scarves yesterday. Yes. They did. That is where we are at.

[Alan_A 1,650]

7 hours ago, Pastaiolo said:

Small correction here, we are not yet at the point in which patients are dying because they are not getting to an ICU bed. We might get there in the following weeks but we are not there yet.

Thanks for the correction - I'd pick it up in my original post but it's now closed to editing.

I spent a lot of time yesterday hearing from healthcare providers - including some who are friends - about what they're anticipating/dreading.  And most of them cite Italy as an example of what to fear.  So I made the mistake of blending the two together.

On the one hand, I guess it's short-term good news that the system isn't yet over capacity.  But on the other, more realistic hand, it's really frightening to think of what might happen if cases continue to escalate and ICU beds run out.

Hope you and yours are staying as safe as you can.

[n4gix 4,970]

6 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

They are capable of doing that in Asia. Why can’t we?

Mostly because 90+% of all masks are imported from --- China!

I am diabetic and receive 100% of my health care from the VA. I get a new pair of orthopedic shoes ever year. Despite the "Buy American" slogan, where are my shoes made? --- China!

[n4gix 4,970]

9 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

There's also the fact that, from the moment the spread of the virus was first reported in China, we in the US had sixty days - sixty days! - to get tests manufactured and distributed, hospital equipment in place, etc.  We did nothing.

I'm sure somebody is going to read this as a political post and if it is and mods want to take it down, have at it.  At this point I'm too disgusted to care.

That's not entirely the case though. Our CDC developed and produced "test kits" in enormous quantities...

...that unfortunately were flawed and useless. So something was done, just not very well. I too am absolutely livid and disgusted beyond belief.