21 minutes ago, n4gix said:

That's not entirely the case though. Our CDC developed and produced "test kits" in enormous quantities...

...that unfortunately were flawed and useless. So something was done, just not very well. I too am absolutely livid and disgusted beyond belief.

Right.

It's important to be accurate about the spectacular cascade of failures.

1 hour ago, Alan_A said:

..we in the US had sixty days - sixty days! - to get tests manufactured and distributed, hospital equipment in place, etc.  We did nothing.

Not completely accurate, as started to come to light last night. A few insiders sold their equities while telling the public not to worry.

1 hour ago, Alan_A said:

Thanks for the correction - I'd pick it up in my original post but it's now closed to editing.

I spent a lot of time yesterday hearing from healthcare providers - including some who are friends - about what they're anticipating/dreading.  And most of them cite Italy as an example of what to fear.  So I made the mistake of blending the two together.

On the one hand, I guess it's short-term good news that the system isn't yet over capacity.  But on the other, more realistic hand, it's really frightening to think of what might happen if cases continue to escalate and ICU beds run out.

Hope you and yours are staying as safe as you can.

It's okay Alan. It's hard to keep track of everything.

Today updated numbers of ICU give higher than 8000 from the initial 5500 so i think we moved well in that regard. We are waiting to see some more results from the lockdown in a few more days since it hasn't been two weeks yet since the start of it.

To further talk about the death rate in Italy, there are three factors to consider in that regard:

1.  Older age of the population. The average age of the infected is 63 and the one of the deceased is 80. The average age of the infected in China is 47.
2. 99% of the deceased had other health issues which are responsible for their death in the end. However, since they did die with coronavirus in their bodies, they are all counted in the death toll. This approach is completely different from the before mentioned approach in Germany (which is the prime example of this other approach at this time)
3. Tests for coronavirus are done only on those getting hospitalized with serious symptoms, which makes the death rate much higher than the actual number (since those with low and mild conditions recovers on their own at home without even being tested for coronavirus)

Edited March 20, 20206 yr by Pastaiolo

@Pastaiolo - Good news, if it holds, on the ICU bed count.  Of course, for those of us in the US, there's the added detail that our hospital-bed-per-capita and physician-per-capita counts are lower than in Lombardy.  I'm not sure how the hospital equipment situation compares, but I'd suspect ours isn't favorable.

Have read some commentary about Italy's demographic being a contributor.  And we're all dealing with reporting discrepancies.  Most of all, as you note, we're dealing with deficiencies in testing.  We're still completely blind about how widespread the infection is. But reality is likely to be worse than we anticipate.  Just saw this: the WHO reports that it took three months to reach 100,000 cases worldwide... and just another 12 days to reach 200,000.

So we're all going to be in the thick of it pretty soon.

Again, hope you and everyone here stays safe and stays well.

 

2 hours ago, w6kd said:

China had over 80,000 reported infections despite widespread mask usage...

 

According to this article below, masks are beneficial if you are in close contact with the infected. But not so much, if you are out and about. 

 

 

Quote

 

"Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone (although others have found lower levels of effectiveness).

If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re showing symptoms of coronavirus, or have been diagnosed, wearing a mask can also protect others. So masks are crucial for health and social care workers looking after patients and are also recommended for family members who need to care for someone who is ill – ideally both the patient and carer should have a mask.

However, masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus so there is no need to bulk-buy a huge supply."

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/can-a-face-mask-protect-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-elderly

20 minutes ago, martin-w said:

 

According to this article below, masks are beneficial if you are in close contact with the infected. But not so much, if you are out and about. 

 

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/20/can-a-face-mask-protect-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-elderly

Again, the mask is not about protecting yourself. It is to keep infected people from spraying the virus out. The infections in china happened before the disease noticed and the alarm sounded. Before everybody dusted off their masks and quarantines placed.

The resistance to and misunderstanding of this does not bode well for us.

Edited March 20, 20206 yr by KevinAu

20 hours ago, w6kd said:

That's a convoy of 70 military trucks ...Does anyone ever remember seeing something like this attributed to "just the flu?"

Granted, not many of us were around at the time, and the trucks were less sophisticated, but..

..just the flu...

Unless I've missed something the latest info on the UK govt. website regarding social distancing does not mention wearing masks...

 

Yet..

8 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

Unless I've missed something the latest info on the UK govt. website regarding social distancing does not mention wearing masks...

 

Yet..

Because there are none to be had. The cdc advice about masks is informed from lack of supply as much as what they can do. But there is no way we get out of this without mandated masks, hygiene, social distance, quarantine, and medical care. Missing any of these aspects or slow rolling the response or applying it piecemeal will only prolong the suffering.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/masks-respirators-and-coronavirus-catching-up-to-the-changing-advice-222618518.html

Edited March 20, 20206 yr by KevinAu

The village were I live would be quite easy to socially distance from the rest of the world. We've a population of less than 1500 souls and about 4 roads into and out of the place. A couple of Challenger 2 MBTS on each and we'd be quarantined.. 

Re: masks

 

Should I wear a mask?

Only wear a mask if you are ill with COVID-19 symptoms (especially coughing) or looking after someone who may have COVID-19. Disposable face mask can only be used once. If you are not ill or looking after someone who is ill then you are wasting a mask. There is a world-wide shortage of masks, so WHO urges people to use masks wisely.

WHO advises rational use of medical masks to avoid unnecessary wastage of precious resources and mis-use of masks  (see Advice on the use of masks).

The most effective ways to protect yourself and others against COVID-19 are to frequently clean your hands, cover your cough with the bend of elbow or tissue and maintain a distance of at least 1 meter (3 feet) from people who are coughing or sneezing. See basic protective measures against the new coronavirus for more information.

 

This is current information from the WHO (https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses) and not some news site...

 

Cheers & stay safe! We're in this together!

 

Mallard

Yes. A worldwide shortage. That’s the primary reason behind the advice. Nevermind that it can hinder the spread and shorten the crisis. And missing that piece of the response, we are in for a longer slog, I’m afraid.

Edited March 20, 20206 yr by KevinAu

1 hour ago, Mallard said:

The most effective ways to protect yourself and others against COVID-19 are to frequently clean your hands, cover your cough with the bend of elbow or tissue and maintain a distance of at least 1 meter (3 feet) from people who are coughing or sneezing. See basic protective measures against the new coronavirus for more information.

 

 

I believe that is now 2 metres. Even that minimal.

2 hours ago, cowpatz said:

I believe that is now 2 metres. Even that minimal.

I do believe it is 6 feet. That is how far a sneeze can spew stuff...

6 feet is 1.82 metres therefore 2 metres is longer than 6 feet, which means Metric Countries are more safe 😀