5 hours ago, LHookins said:

Stay home and raise sheep and goats and chickens and puppies and kittens and grow a good garden. Trade eggs for whatever you need. Go fishing. Learn to cook.

That's the one I like best.  I already know how to cook.

Noel

9 hours ago, LHookins said:

Dave, seriously... someone's spent a lot of time and paid a lot of money teaching you (and everyone else) to worry. It's not your fault. It's going to be beyond my meager skill set to inoculate you against it. The best I can do is assure you that the world is not necessarily going to hell in a handbasket, and things definitely aren't as bad as some people would have you believe.

Where did I say that I am worried?  The word "presumptuous" comes to mind.

I am raising some issues and discussing them.  One of those issues relates to how society is going to deal with the loss of millions of jobs that can be replaced by humanoid AI robots.  

Your assumption that all those newly unemployed people can be retrained to maintain and repair those robots is naive.  For one thing, many of them simply won't have the aptitude for that kind of work.  It's also not a one tech for one robot proposition.  A single engineer or technician can probably maintain and repair 50-100 robots.

I know a bit about the history of industrialization and how millions of jobs were replaced by machines in the early 20th century, and yet the world didn't fall apart.  I'm not freaked out by the AI revolution and I don't buy into the hype that AI will take over or destroy humanity.  Society will be forced to evolve as it always has.

What I do know is that AI and advances in robotics will cause millions of jobs, such as cashiers, call center reps, sales reps, drivers, delivery folks, warehouse and dock workers, data entry and some programming jobs, some finance jobs, bank tellers, and many other jobs to ultimately be replaced by robots and software over the next 20 years or so.  Fast food places have already begun doing this with their self-serve kiosks, and they're talking about automating the grills and fryers and such, so pretty soon millions of those fast food jobs will disappear.

I'm simply asking how society will respond to this and what possible solutions there are.

Dave

Robots don't get salaries and don't need weekends off and paid holidays, or sick days. So many millions saved in salaries and higher productivity achieved.

More funds to provide Universal basic income? 

There is the cost of the robots, of course, but I would expect them to become  cheaper with mass production and advancing technology. 

We can spend our leisure time, on our universal basic income, studying philosophy, the sciences, art, exploration of the natural world, athletic endeavors, and all manner of fun things. 

It will be like Star Trek! 😁

14 hours ago, LHookins said:

Stay home and raise sheep and goats and chickens and puppies and kittens and grow a good garden. Trade eggs for whatever you need. Go fishing. Learn to cook.

Learn new things. Buy an inexpensive E6B and learn to use it. Then teach others. Study business, economics, philosophy. Learn to play an instrument. Do volunteer work. The possibilities are endless. 

Get involved in local politics, or start a small business. These are the only two real games in town.

Boredom is a self inflicted wound, and there will always be worthwhile things to do.

 

Precisely! And here's a cat point for mentioning the raising of our furry friends. 

 

X1 😸

Future robots will maintain and build themselves.

47 minutes ago, martin-w said:

here's a cat point for mentioning the raising of our furry friends. 

This is very much on my mind right now.

I have a young female cat that I couldn't convince the family to get to the vet in time, and then it was too late. She went from tennis ball to grapefruit and is currently small cantaloupe. Every time I hear a cat meow I have to go check it out, just in case.

When the kittens she's about to have any minute now get old enough to be photogenic, I'll get a group photo of them. My wife and son will post it to Facebook and I'll post it here. 😄

Hook

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

We can spend our leisure time, on our universal basic income, studying philosophy, the sciences, art, exploration of the natural world, athletic endeavors, and all manner of fun things. 

It will be like Star Trek! 😁

Google "post-scarcity". 😄 

 

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

places have already begun doing this with their self-serve kiosks

The VA clinic tried doing check-in with automated kiosks a few years ago. Currently those kiosks are sitting idle, powered down and gathering dust and the VA went back to having human check-in. The typical "customer" of the VA clinic consists of old farts like me and we complained. Some problems are self correcting. 🙂 

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

A single engineer or technician can probably maintain and repair 50-100 robots.

A single technician can't even maintain 50-100 aircraft emergency exit doors. 😄 Boeing knows all about this one. 🙂 

Someone's gonna have to go around behind those robots and do quality control checks. A machine can do the welds in an automobile factory, but it'll take a human to make sure the weld is sound. Pretty much the same with machines that insert chips into circuit boards. If all that was all still done by hand we'd have fewer cars and computers and they'd be more expensive.

The US population has doubled since 1950, and factory automation has increased a lot. People somehow still have jobs, and will have more when manufacturing is brought back to the US.

I see a bright future... eventually. 🙂 

Hook

2 hours ago, martin-w said:

More funds to provide Universal basic income?

Who will provide that universal basic income? 

If you depend on a universal basic income where will your sense of self worth come from?

A person has to be productive in some way to develop a sense of self worth.  A universal basic income is free money for doing nothing.  Granted some people who are self starters will find talents they did not realize they had like writing or photgraphy or restoring old cars or painting or renovating houses.  But many more sink into laziness, apathy, a sense of loss of self worth and more likely will turn to alcohol to ease that pain.

People need to be productive to feel good about themselves.  A universal basic income inhibits that.

When I first I moved into this retirement home I began to feel somewhat worthless.  Then I started writing again and getting involved the activities they provide.  I even began cooking some of my meals in my own room as opposed to going to the dining room.  I regained a sense of being productive.   And participating in Hangar Chat.

But most of the men here hide themselves in their rooms watching television only coming out to the dining room for meals.  The women here seem more able to adapt to this environment and take part in group activities.

Noel

We've seen the robot bodies, but check this out, is the mind already here? Something to worry about or hyperbole?

 

 

2 hours ago, LHookins said:

When the kittens she's about to have any minute now get old enough to be photogenic, I'll get a group photo of them.

 

😲 😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺

 

Make sure you do. Call one of them Mart, one Noel, one Dave, one Charlie.... etc.

11 minutes ago, martin-w said:

 

😲 😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺😺

 

Make sure you do. Call one of them Mart, one Noel, one Dave, one Charlie.... etc.

That would be a cat's-ass-trify! 😸

7 hours ago, LHookins said:

The VA clinic tried doing check-in with automated kiosks a few years ago. Currently those kiosks are sitting idle, powered down and gathering dust and the VA went back to having human check-in. The typical "customer" of the VA clinic consists of old farts like me and we complained. Some problems are self correcting. 🙂

Hey! I liked those kiosks! I loved being able to check in and file for my travel pay at the same time... 😊

7 hours ago, LHookins said:

Someone's gonna have to go around behind those robots and do quality control checks. A machine can do the welds in an automobile factory, but it'll take a human to make sure the weld is sound. Pretty much the same with machines that insert chips into circuit boards. If all that was all still done by hand we'd have fewer cars and computers and they'd be more expensive.

The US population has doubled since 1950, and factory automation has increased a lot. People somehow still have jobs, and will have more when manufacturing is brought back to the US.

Let's suppose that in the next 20 years about 20 million lower-skilled jobs get replaced by AI robots.  Let's further suppose that you're right, and instead of a single tech/engineer for 50 robots we'll need one for every 10 robots - that still results in a net loss of 18 million jobs.

I'm not too worried either as the current labor force participation rate is about 63% which historically isn't bad - it was only about 60% from 1950-1970, perhaps due to less women in the workforce back then.  Therefore, we could lose millions of jobs and still be OK, I think.  

However, the amount of money needed to pay another 20-50 million people to stay home, pursue their hobbies, and enjoy a leisurely, carefree, happy-happy existence would be astronomical.  I suppose that the 50% who will still be working maintaining all those robots will be paid very handsomely and will also need to be taxed very handsomely.

Anyway, somehow we'll figure it out.  I'm not worried, but I think we need to be thinking about this stuff so we're prepared and have a plan to deal with it.  However, based on how our "leaders" have handled Social Security and Medicare so far, I'm not exactly filled with confidence.

Dave

7 hours ago, birdguy said:

When I first I moved into this retirement home I began to feel somewhat worthless.  Then I started writing again and getting involved the activities they provide.  I even began cooking some of my meals in my own room as opposed to going to the dining room.  I regained a sense of being productive.   And participating in Hangar Chat.

Although I'm quite a bit younger than you, I understand what you're talking about.  I retired relatively early compared to most people after working since I was 16 years old, in my early 50s, and after about a year I was bored and feeling unfulfilled.

I knew this would happen as I had read about people having difficulty coping after they retired in their mid-60s, so I had an idea of what I might expect.  I still wasn't prepared for how I felt, however.

Anyway, I have my hobbies, chores, and participating in this forum to help keep me occupied.  I need a bit more, though, which is why I'm going to plant a small garden and grow some vegetables to give me something else productive to accomplish.

I've never understood how some people can just lay around and watch TV all day, but there's a lot of older, retired people who do just that.

Dave