20 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

how accurately it portrays the current Dynamics.

Thanks, looks very interesting!

Martin

5 hours ago, n4gix said:

Noel, I have only one question for you to consider: Can you with absolute, one hundred percent certainty guarantee that you are not infected already, or might become infected sometime?

Fr Bill I cannot guarantee with absolute, one hundred percent certainty guarantee anything.  

But I'm a pretty healthy guy.  Within the last three months I have been given a clean bill of health by a cardiologist, pulmonary specialist, dermatologist, renal specialist and my primary car guy.  Except for glaucoma in my left eye, some hearing loss, and old age I'm pretty healthy.

Last May after a flight to Charleston and back I got a pulmonary embolism.  The first time in my 85 years (then) that I was ever admitted to a hospital for anything.  But last month a CAT scan said that was all cleared up.

All my doctors warn me about being a butter, eggs and red meat guy.  I do have high cholesterol.  Have had it most of my life.  I don't worry about it.  I love my butter, eggs and red meat.

My blood pressure averages 125/65 with a pulse rate of 65.  My blood-oxygen lever runs  96-98%

I've never been operated on.

I hope to live another 17 years because I have a date with the Golden Gate Bridge.  According to my Mom we walked across it the day it opened in 1937 when I was 3 years old.  I plan to walk across it on it's 100th anniversary when I'm 103.

That's how sure I am that I am not infected or will become infected at some time.  I've never had the flu although my doctor talked me into getting flu shots about 7 years ago.  I don't catch colds and seldom get headaches.

Now, if I see a sudden surge, say 8 or 10 new cases overnight I'll start wearing a mask.  But I don't see the need now.

Perhaps I'll get killed in some sort of accident or maybe shot by a crazed gunman in WalMart.  I think those are more likely than my getting heart disease, cancer, kidney or liver failure, or coronavirus.

That all sounds somewhat arrogant, but that's the attitude I have about my health.  And if I die tomorrow I can't complain.  It's been a pretty good life so far.  Just enough tragedy to make me appreciate the good things.

PS: Call me a free rider Martin.  Most of us benefit from some sort of gift from others.  If I happen to live in low virus incident because others have made it so then many thanks. But don't expect me to wear a mask in the current local situation just because you do.

 

Noel

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by birdguy

With the first tropical storm of the season hitting the Carolinas now have any plans been made for social distancing in refugee centers if a serious hurricane it's the Atlantic or Gulf coasts this summer?

Noel

23 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Most of us benefit from some sort of gift from others. 

We absolutely do, that's why I mentioned it, the biggest is the freedom most of us have at the expense of all those who fought for it while we stayed home, so yes we have all been Free-Riders!

Well Noel, I hope you make it across that bridge, I'm a little uncomfortable just driving across it not sure I would want to walk across it.

Martin

38 minutes ago, birdguy said:

With the first tropical storm of the season hitting the Carolinas now have any plans been made for social distancing in refugee centers if a serious hurricane it's the Atlantic or Gulf coasts this summer?

Noel

That's actually a pretty interesting problem, between hurricane season and tornado season.  I think consensus is that shelter and evacuation take priority - but there's bound to be a lot of risk balancing ahead.

Here's a new one from Dr. Jetelina - an attempt to deal with the interesting (and pressing) question of local increases in coronavirus cases, and whether they're the result of increased testing or whether there's an increase in transmission over and above that. 

She finds that in two areas, there's increased spread over and above the higher testing levels:
 

Quote

 

Like I briefly mentioned before, because Texas is so large, researchers use Trauma Service Areas (TSA) to analyze data. We are paying attention to the difference in confirmed case increase and testing increase. There are two spots to look at:

TSA A (panhandle): In the past 7 days, had a 45% increase in cases; a 36% increase in testing. SO, 8% of case increase isn’t explained by testing but rather increased spread. Remember, this is the meat packing district area.

TSA F (northeast): In the past 7 days, had a 49% increase in cases; a 30% increase in testing. SO, 20% of case increase isn’t explained by testing but rather increased spread.

 

There's a map and a table that cover all of Texas.

A caveat - she notes in a comment that this is a first take, and data skews are possible.  For example, if you tested in an area with a high concentration of sick people, say in meatpacking plants or nursing homes, then you'd expect the number of positive tests to skew higher.  "There are quite a few assumptions, but unfortunately this is the best we got right now."

In all, though, this is useful data to watch as things open up, and as we try to interpret changes in the number of confirmed cases.

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by Alan_A

There's new information released recently based on cell phone data, that follows the dispersal of people from protest rallies, showing many of them traveling hundreds of miles, spreading throughout their apparent home states and sometimes beyond, across state borders.

Possibly helping greatly in the widespread dispersal of covid, possibly even into areas previously only lightly or completely unaffected.

😿

I don't know about anyone else, but for me, there's a feeling of helplessness and frustration associated with this.

How do the vast majority of the people out there, diligently working together as a culture/civilization to bring this virus under control succeed, if all over the place others are essentially acting as willing vectors for the disease, defiantly spreading it far and wide?

Earlier, I was reading how Hawaii was only allowing people entry who promised to self quarantine for two weeks after arriving. People are dutifully signing the paperwork promising to do so, and then racing off to the beach and wherever, where many are being apprehended by the police.

How does one explain such behavior?

As I said before, i'm trying and trying, but I just don't get it.

Those people are aliens to me, and I don't think I'll ever understand in the time left to me on earth.

Meanwhile: 

 

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

45 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Possibly helping greatly in the widespread dispersal of covid, possibly even into areas previously only lightly or completely unaffected.

😿

I don't know about anyone else, but for me, there's a feeling of helplessness and frustration associated with this.

The only conclusion I was able to glean from all this is humanity will not solved this without a vaccine or therapeutic. It seems to be beyond our capacity as a species to come together and do what is necessary to end this pandemic. I'm hopeful science will help us get out of this one!

Martin 

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

8 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

Well Noel, I hope you make it across that bridge, I'm a little uncomfortable just driving across it not sure I would want to walk across it.

Martin, I grew up in San Francisco and across the bridge in Marin County.  As kids my brother and I walked across it many times.  It's a mile between the towers.  And later I must have driven or ridden across it a hundred times or more.

Noel

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by birdguy

7 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

How does one explain such behavior?

As I said before, i'm trying and trying, but I just don't get it.

Those people are aliens to me, and I don't think I'll ever understand in the time left to me on earth.

Why do some people stick with FSX when we know how much better P3Dv5 is?  Why doesn't everyone just get X-Plane?  I don't understand it because it's so much better than the others.

It's called free will and human nature.  All humans are endowed with it.  If the world came together and worked as one we wouldn't have wars, need guns or lawyers or courts or even a two party system of government; or perhaps a government at all.

What you are looking for is a big brother to enforce laws and regulations and everything YOU think is right.  It doesn't work that way except in the military.  And to make it work there they basic training or boot camp to prepare enlistees for that kind of environment.

Noel

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by birdguy

Many here are focusing on the number of infections and again displaying scary maps painting countries in shades of red, purple, gray, and black.  When one looks at the number of deaths, however, the situation is not nearly as frightening.  Concerning, yes, but not something so horrible that we must all stay home afraid for our lives.

Just look at that recently posted map and instead of focusing on the colors, look at the actual numbers.  316,000 deaths out of a world population of over 6 billion.  Over 1,800,000 recoveries.

Here are some quotes from the Wikipedia page on the Covid-10 Mortality Rate.  All these have footnote links to references in the Wikipedia article:

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a relatively low case fatality rate, but the actual numbers of deaths are considerable given the huge scale of the pandemic.^[2] As of 4 May 2020, worldwide nearly 250 thousand people have died due to COVID-19, while nearly 1.2 million people have recovered.^[3] Deaths are more common in those aged over 60 years and those with co-morbidities.^[4][5] Most people affected with the disease recover without any particular treatment. Poor outcomes and mortality are associated with old age, profound disabilities and frailty.

Most people affected with the disease recover without any particular treatment. Poor outcomes and mortality are associated with old age, profound disabilities and frailty.

In New York state, 86% of those died from COVID-19 had at least one comorbidity.

Again this is a serious disease and we need to minimize infections by practicing good hygiene, social distancing, wearing masks, etc.  However, it is not going to kill the vast majority of people if they catch it, and many who catch it will recover on their own just like with Influenza.

The elderly and sick must take extra precautions as they are the most vulnerable.  The rest of us can go about our normal lives without fear as long as we're careful, just like when driving a car we should wear our seat belts. Nothing to panic or be fearful about.

Dave

 

24 minutes ago, birdguy said:

It's called free will and human nature.  All humans are endowed with it.

 

Sometimes I can't decide if you mean what you write or are just playing devil's advocate. Your posts are so full of contradictions. If free will and human nature were in the least bit utopian, you would be wearing your mask and keeping away from others to help them and yourself. Instead, you are just going your own sweet way because you know best which is exactly the consequence of free will and human nature.

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by Reader

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

What you are looking for is a big brother to enforce laws and regulations and everything YOU think is right.

That's technically called a straw man.

Creating an argument I did not make, and assigning it to me to defend, which I won't, since its your interpretation, and has essentially nothing to do with me.

As for big brother, yes, I believe do in government, and as a citizen I daily obey both the laws that suit me, and also many that do not and that you might support.

That's part of the compact between all the citizens of a given town state or country to keep civilization up and running. We elect our governments, and in doing so assign to them the authority and right to set binding policies within the boundaries of accepted law for their citizens.

So yes, I recycle because I believe in a clean environment. I also obey speeding laws even when I disagree with them and they are inconvenient. Along the way, I pay taxes that suck, and accept the possibility I might get drafted and sent off to fight people I don't know and possibly be killed in fights I did not start.

In a public emergency, I obey instructions from relevant authorities, such as that of firemen ordering me to exit a building, or police telling me to stay behind the dotted line. Even Governors telling me to stay home or if outside, wear a mask. The only times this rule bends is in situations with extenuating circumstances, like perhaps speeding to get an ill person to the hospital.

The point being, we all as a culture, society, civilization etc obey instructions from authority in the interests of safety and public order, especially in life threatening emergencies, and most especially when disobeying said instructions puts others lives at risk.

No military training or background is required.

If you find this objectionable, and in a sovereign citizens frame of mind decide your general obligations to your neighbors state and country are only those your personal beliefs can support, then how can you then rightfully expect societal protection when somebody elses selfishness justs happens to put you and yours in mortal danger?

The applicable word for such a state of affairs is "anarchy" and its generally considered to be a bad thing.

Almost incidentally, our economy would still be toast, collapsed under the weight of all the dead people, if everyone felt and behaved similarly.

Edited May 19, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

2 hours ago, Reader said:

Sometimes I can't decide if you mean what you write or are just playing devil's advocate. Your posts are so full of contradictions. If free will and human nature were in the least bit utopian, you would be wearing your mask and keeping away from others to help them and yourself. Instead, you are just going your own sweet way because you know best which is exactly the consequence of free will and human nature.

Of course I mean what I write.  Free will and human nature are not the least bit utopian.  You can't get away from free will and human nature.  It's hardwired into us.  It's part of our being.  And based on  many things; how we were brought up, how were we educated, what professions did we pursue, and our life experiences, makes us the we are.  And that's what makes us all different.

Much of my being comes from my father, my Jesuit high school education, and the United States Marne Corps.  Those are what started me off in life.  Some of those might seem contradictory.  My father taught me to stick with my beliefs and be independent.  The Jesuits taught me to question.  The Marine Corp gave me discipline, although I was somewhat rebellious even there because I questioned things.

I never went to college but I am well read.  Again, thanks to my father.  I would give me books to read and tell me not to let my mother see them because she was a devout Catholic.

As I have stated here many times I don't wear a mask YET because I look at the situation around me and don't see the need.  As summer approaches and people from out of state start arriving or passing through I probably will start.  But not until I see a significant rise in the number of cases around me.

I say I had a Jesuit high school education.  That's only partly true.  You see, I was expelled during my junior year.

Back then, about 1950, it was still a mortal sin for Catholics to eat meat on Friday.  In our religion class I questioned that.  The old Jesuit father and I got into a heated discussion.  It ended when I told him, "If God id going to burn you forever and ever for eating a pork chop on Friday then he's no better than word not allowed as for burning the Jews."  I was sent home and that evening they called my father and told him they did not want me back.  My mother was livid.  My father gave me an attaboy wink.

I grant that I might seem confusing to some,  It's my way of expressing myself.

Noel

2 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

 

If you find this objectionable, and in a sovereign citizens frame of mind decide your general obligations to your neighbors state and country are only those your personal beliefs can support, then how can you then rightfully expect societal protection when somebody elses selfishness justs happens to put you and yours in mortal danger?

I certainly  do not find that objectionable.  You have just as much right to express your disagreement with me as I have to express my disagreements with you.  I recognize you might be right and I might be wrong.  But that's what makes us unique individuals.

I stand by my Big Brother remark since many of you want mandatory masks for everyone.

Noel