Thanks, HiFlyer.😎

6 hours ago, w6kd said:

...and climate change

...and south-east New Mexico

3 hours ago, Alan_A said:

Well, this is concerning: a total of 13 sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt who had tested positive for coronavirus, then seemed to have cleared the virus and tested negative twice, have now tested positive again.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/16/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-coronavirus-261873

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/16/857379338/5-uss-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-for-covid-19-again

Some are symptomatic.

Lots of unknowns here - tests might have been inaccurate, or the nature of the infections (upper respiratory, not lower respiratory) might have made them more susceptible to reinfection.  But it bears watching, because if exposure doesn't confer immunity, some plans may have to change.

For the moment, add it to the list of things we don't fully understand about the virus yet.

According to the media reports I read, the sailors were cleared based on nasal swab RNA testing. 

Reporting out of France early in the pandemic (Lescure et al) described cases where patients who appeared to be recovered and who had tested negative via rt-PCR assays of nasopharyngeal samples (absence of viral RNA) then later developed severe respiratory complications.

My guess (hope) is that there might be issues with using nasopharyngeal RNA assays to definitively differentiate post-infectious patients vs those who have progressed to a still-infectious state but with very low viral loads that escape detection via the swabs.  Hopefully they could do stool or serum RNA testing rather than the more definitive virus culture testing that would otherwise be needed to clear a patient, because culture tests are a lot more expensive and take longer than the RNA assays.  That said, it'd still be a lot less ominous than the implications of a lack of post-infection immunity.

 

THE MORE WE KNOW THE MORE WE DON'T KNOW.

WE USED TO THINK, BUT NOW WE KNOW.  BUT TODAY'S NOW WE KNOW WILL BECOME TOMORROW'S WE USED TO THINK.

NOEL

To wear or not to wear, that is the question.  Whether tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of those pointing the finger at you for not wearing a mask, or to take arms against a sea of troubles by wearing one.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25713/20200518/wearing-face-masks-potentially-harmful-trap-exhaled-viruses-well-individuals.htm

Noel

9 minutes ago, birdguy said:

To wear or not to wear, that is the question.  Whether tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of those pointing the finger at you for not wearing a mask, or to take arms against a sea of troubles by wearing one.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25713/20200518/wearing-face-masks-potentially-harmful-trap-exhaled-viruses-well-individuals.htm

Noel

Sigh.

The good Dr. Blaylock is a neurologist-turned-nutritionist who sells a variety of nutritional supplements on his website.

He has advocated for a wide variety of fringe medical claims and conspiracy theories: https://geneticliteracyproject.org/glp-facts/russell-blaylo

Here's a general request: Can we please get beyond the level of "I found a guy with a blog/YouTube channel/quote on a website who has a title after his name and a theory I agree with"?

Vet. Your. Sources.

And an additional observation - again, this isn't pointed at any one individual but directed to the community in general.  Are you really in favor of science?  If so, then you need to meet this test: You need to follow the science wherever it leads.  That's what a real scientist does - he or she creates a research hypothesis, designs a study to investigate it, fields the study to collect data, analyzes it, and reports the results - EVEN IF THE RESULTS COMPLETELY CONTRADICT WHAT THE SCIENTIST HOPED TO PROVE. Along the way, a good scientist tries to stress-test the theory and the findings, to anticipate objections and address weaknesses.

Science is the research team from Boehringer Ingleheim standing up in front of the FDA and saying, "We wanted to bring Nevirapine to market but our study shows that it provokes resistant strains of HIV within a week, and it can't be used the way we intended."

Of course it's possible to argue over study design and methodology.  The way that happens is that someone critiques the design or methodology - and then cites other studies that differ, or, even better, designs a new study to further the investigation.  And again, goes where the data leads.

Such arguments are part of doing science and are not, repeat not, proof that all of science is invalid.

Dr. Blaylock isn't even making such a claim.  He has no research to back up his mask=rebreathing the virus theory. It's just a theory he threw out there - "this is something that I think could possibly happen." Period. No evidence, no data.

Please keep in mind - science happens gradually and by degrees in a community investigating a problem.  THERE ARE NO LONE WOLF REVOLUTIONARIES.  Revolutionary changes happen, but always by degrees.  Copernicus arrived at his heloicentric theory because he was working on a problem - Ptolemy's model couldn't produce mathematical results that lined up with Aristotle's theory.  After multiple attempts, Copernicus decided to see if he could get more consistent results by replacing Ptolemy with a different model.  Islamic astronomers were working on the same problem.  There were communities engaged in investigation.  Galileo developed observational evidence to support Copernicus.  Neither Copernicus nor Galileo took to YouTube to say, "Everybody else is wrong and I'm right!"

So... if you want to cite findings, cite away.  But first - examine credentials, look for supportive findings, and be willing to abandon your ideas if the evidence isn't there.

That's science.

For a variety of reasons, it seems that there are those who resist doing what they are told, be that because they know better, think that there is a conspiracy, distrust everything or are just naughty little children masquerading as adults.

One does not need to be a scientist or even intelligent at all to observe the consequences of doing the right thing, versus the wrong thing. One needs only to look at the differences between those who did and those who did not.

Alan.  Far from being an expert on this stuff and not knowing who's who or even how to vet because I don't know what I'm vetting for.  So I post these things so those of you who are knowledgeable can set us all straight.  I trust you because of your credentials.  I don't even know how to choose the right over-the-counter medication of toenail fungus.

I can help you if you want to know about meteorology, climatology, how to design digital circuits using old discrete devices, or even how to disarm an unexploded artillery round (or I could have 60 years ago).  Those were my areas of expertise.

For expert advise I come here when I have problems or need help with flight simulation or coronavirus or want to know if something is true or bogus.

And let me know if my flippant responses bother you.  It's a habit of mine and if annoys you I can leave them off.

Noel 

Reader, it's not a matter of resisting what you are told.  It's a matter of making a judgement call based on conditions on the ground where you are located at the present time.  I don't feel the need to wear mask in my community AT THIS TIME.  Neither do most of the people here.  Where I to relocate to a community that had hundreds of cases I would surely wear a mask.  

This is not a case 'if I wear a mask then everyone should wear a mask'.  

If local conditions change and warrant me wearing a mask I will do so.

Noel

42 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Reader, it's not a matter of resisting what you are told.  It's a matter of making a judgement call based on conditions on the ground where you are located at the present time.  I don't feel the need to wear mask in my community AT THIS TIME.  Neither do most of the people here.  Where I to relocate to a community that had hundreds of cases I would surely wear a mask.  

This is not a case 'if I wear a mask then everyone should wear a mask'.  

If local conditions change and warrant me wearing a mask I will do so.

Noel

Then you negate the entire purpose of using a mask.

I have noticed you have yet to address the point raised, multiple times to you, that the virus spreads asymptomatically and that it can take up to two weeks before anybody realizes they have contracted it. Have you thought through the implication of that with regard to your disregard and your community’s disregard for the use of masks?

Edited May 18, 20206 yr by KevinAu

Exactly, by the time people feel they need to wear a mask .... it's too late!

Cheers!

@birdguy - No offense taken. Not bothered at all by your responses - please continue. And...

54 minutes ago, birdguy said:

I can help you if you want to know about meteorology, climatology, how to design digital circuits using old discrete devices, or even how to disarm an unexploded artillery round (or I could have 60 years ago).  Those were my areas of expertise.

...I may take you up on that offer - on meteorology and climate in particular. And maybe the artillery rounds - you never know when that might come in handy these days. 😎

It's hard to find your way in a new subject.  Blaylock wasn't somebody I know - what I did was google him, then dig a little deeper by googling "blaylock biases." I try to do that with every source I come across - doesn't take long to get a handle on where they're coming from, and if they're controversial, and if they're credible.

One of the sources I rely on, apart from several that I've linked to many times, is a Twitter list of virology and public health experts put together by Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo.  Even if you don't like him as a political commentator, he's done a great service by putting this together - it's extremely well vetted and it's a good way of staying on top of things.  You can read it on his covid-19 page here, or, if you're a Twitter user, you can subscribe to it (side note - I don't post anything on Twitter but if you use it carefully, it can be a great resource for breaking news and commentary.

Sharing findings and resources with one another is also a way of doing science.  With the caveat that we're all going to push back on each other from time to time - which makes all of us better researchers - share away!

 

What I don't understand, is the risk/benefit analysis that people that won't/dont wear a mask in crowds at this point are making.

I try, but I swear, it just doesn't compute.

• If you wear the mask, at most you might look and even feel a bit silly, but as a plus you are doing your part as a citizen to protect yourself and your community against a deadly pathogen.
• If you don't wear a mask, you risk infecting yourself, your loved ones and maybe your neighbors with a deadly pathogen that just might kill them.

I'm left wondering what my personal malfunction might be, that the 1st choice is a no-brainer, and the second choice is logically unacceptable, yet so many others are obviously making different calculations, unfathomable to myself.

From my possibly biased standpoint, I see much of the picture below (except for individuals who found themselves with no choice) as the result of nearly insane decision trees. For me, even if you are protesting the lockdown, at least wear a mask?

 

Edited May 18, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

Reader, it's not a matter of resisting what you are told.

 

Noel, it is exactly a matter of resisting what you are told. That is not your first post on the subject and you have made it abundantly clear that you fall into at least one of these categories:

Quote

be that because they know better, think that there is a conspiracy, distrust everything or are just naughty little children masquerading as adults.

If you did not, you would be wearing a mask. The very fact that you see yourself as a potential victim for not doing so speaks volumes.

Quote

To wear or not to wear, that is the question.  Whether tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of those pointing the finger at you for not wearing a mask, or to take arms against a sea of troubles by wearing one.

It's nothing personal, just why the virus spreads so quickly.

Edited May 18, 20206 yr by Reader

Would any of you tell someone who lives in Pont Barrow Alaska to wear a mask when there no cases within a thousand miles of the north shore of Alaska.  The way you talk you want everyone in the world to wear a mask.

I monitor my region every day.  There have been no outbreaks since this thing started.  Some of the counties in my area have had no cases.  My county is the worst.  Last week we finally made it up to 30 cases.  We have averaged about a case a week.  That's out of 60,000 people or 0.05 percent of our population.  I don't know anybody who's been infected and I don't know anybody who knows anybody who's been infected.

Besides, there is no place to go except shopping.  They limit the number of customers allowed into the market at one time.  A guy at the entrance has a counter and counts those going in and subtracts those going out.   When shopping in the aisles you pass a person you are close to him/her for a second or two.  At the checkout line they have 6 foot spacing.

 I wear a mask when I have to accompany my brother to the cancer clinic.  They hand us each one at the door.  And what I hate about wearing masks is the difficulty understanding people wearing one when you have a hearing loss.  After asking the doctor what he/she said a couple of times he/she takes off the mask to tell me something and then they put it back on until they have to talk to me again.

A few days ago I had to have some plumbing work done at my house.  The plumbers wore masks.  I couldn't understand what they were telling me and they had to remove them to talk to me.  Both of them told me that they have to wear as a condition of employment.  I understand that.  They have to go into strange houses every day so it makes sense under those circumstances.

I monitor the cases in my area twice a day.  if we got sudden rise of, say, a dozen cases overnight I'd start  wearing a mask.

I'll trust myself to make mask decisions more than any of you who live hundreds of miles away from and don't know what the situation is where I live. 

Noel

Edited May 18, 20206 yr by birdguy