Posted this in the A320 thread but thought it deserved it's own call-out. 

Just a bit of insight into the MSFS attach rate and market share in 12 months:

A quick glance at the download numbers on another site gives an indication as to the attach rate MSFS has had... 

Most downloaded:  H135 project:  almost 275,000 downloads.    Then there are a number of others in the 10,000-80,000 downloads range.  

I'd be interested how that compares to downloads of popular freeware projects in comparable sims... Maybe it's just me but I don't think I remember ANYTHING in FSX, P3D or XPlane with 275,000 downloads.   That's before X-Box.  

Edit:  A quick glance shows the most downloaded file in the library here had under 10,000 downloads. So yeah, MSFS downloads are exponentially higher.

 Shocking was the number of files over the past 365 days downloaded for FS9 and FSX!!  Wow. 

 

Gives some insight as to how quick MSFS has gained adoption.  I would say this sim is on track for 500,000 users easy with XBox.  

I don't see anyone pulling the plug on that or MSFS going anywhere with that type of adoption rate and growth numbers.  When you look at those numbers it's not hard to see why Payware Developers want to get on board and are jumping ship on other sims.  Numbers don't lie.  

 

It seems also so indicate that at least half of your projected users want to fly in a helicopter, a missed opportunity for a payware developer to do the same and make their fortune.

I am reminded of "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

As ludicrous a suggestion though it may be, one cannot tell if 275,000 people downloaded the file or one person downloaded it 275,000 times.

Your theory seems to be accurate, MSFS has started very well and should go on to do better.

 

What you seem to forget is that every update and its download is seen as a separate download.

So if you have 5000 downloads and 10 updates that MIGHT mean that only 500 different people downloaded 10 different versions.

 

Edited July 15, 20214 yr by hansb57

I've been an early adopter of MSFS from a time when there were many skeptics around. I still find me much more flying it than any sim before, and even better the time share of flying over management is much higher than in previous sims. I also find me buying more addons than for the forerunners which I still have installed but don't feed any longer with addons.

This said, I certainly want MSFS to prosper and follow such figures with interest. However, there are others making me less happy. Take the Steamcharts:

https://steamcharts.com/app/1250410

Forget about the first months where all users were just downloading, but figures from November 20 on should be representative. These are the actual (parallel) users. I see them stagnant, at best, if not declining. I see this in contrast to MS reports on buyers or similar - or do people just buy and abandon it?

The fact that Steam Chart user figures for FSX (https://steamcharts.com/app/314160) are much worse and those for X-Plane (https://steamcharts.com/app/269950) are mostly downwards as well doesn't help much.

Now, all of the named sims have alternative installations, but I don't see any reason to assume the tendency of those installations being contrary to the Steam tendency, perhaps the other way round as I'd assume many early users bought the MS Store version.

Kind regards, Michael

I think that's a natural development. There'll always be some sort of decline, until the next big thing hits. In terms of MSFS this will probably be major updates or future DLCs.

12 minutes ago, hansb57 said:

What you seem to forget is that every update and its download is seen as a separate download.

So if you have 5000 downloads and 10 updates that MIGHT mean that only 500 different people downloaded 10 different versions.

 

That would hold true with FSX/P3D file updates as well.  With numerous file downloads between 10,000-80,000 in one year it is indeed very indicative but to your point, yes some of those are single files downloaded multiple times.  It does highlight the rate of development with multiple releases in 12 months though. 

Not much in the FS world gets updated multiple times in one year but MSFS has become a constantly evolving ecosystem at this point.  

23 minutes ago, Reader said:

It seems also so indicate that at least half of your projected users want to fly in a helicopter, a missed opportunity for a payware developer to do the same and make their fortune.

I am reminded of "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

As ludicrous a suggestion though it may be, one cannot tell if 275,000 people downloaded the file or one person downloaded it 275,000 times.

Your theory seems to be accurate, MSFS has started very well and should go on to do better.

 

Yeah, one person downloaded the file 275,000... How ridiculous. MSFS has knocked out of the park already, and it's just getting started. 

18 minutes ago, hansb57 said:

What you seem to forget is that every update and its download is seen as a separate download.

So if you have 5000 downloads and 10 updates that MIGHT mean that only 500 different people downloaded 10 different versions.

 

Pretty much this. My most downloaded mod is about 33,000. But it started off laughable and has taken a long time to improve. There's probably been 20 or more versions. It might pick up some new users with every update but the number of unique users is probably a tenth of the download number or less. 

The H135 was having an update every day at one point. 

I think mod awareness is much lower than we think so overall numbers are impossible to guess going on that metric. You still see people on the official forum requesting things that are a 0.5 second google away. 

Edited July 15, 20214 yr by superspud

26 minutes ago, pmb said:

This said, I certainly want MSFS to prosper and follow such figures with interest. However, there are others making me less happy. Take the Steamcharts:

https://steamcharts.com/app/1250410

Forget about the first months where all users were just downloading, but figures from November 20 on should be representative. These are the actual (parallel) users. I see them stagnant, at best, if not declining. I see this in contrast to MS reports on buyers or similar - or do people just buy and abandon it?

The fact that Steam Chart user figures for FSX (https://steamcharts.com/app/314160) are much worse and those for X-Plane (https://steamcharts.com/app/269950) are mostly downwards as well doesn't help much.

Now, all of the named sims have alternative installations, but I don't see any reason to assume the tendency of those installations being contrary to the Steam tendency, perhaps the other way round as I'd assume many early users bought the MS Store version.

Kind regards, Michael

MSFS usage counts on Steam are surely miniscule when compared to Game Pass. That is what Microsoft's strategy is all about.

Nevertheless, if we just consider Steam, we are still talking about a market roughly 4x bigger than XP11, so I cannot follow the negative feeling here.

Edited July 15, 20214 yr by GCBraun

11 minutes ago, Bobsk8 said:

Yeah, one person downloaded the file 275,000... How ridiculous. MSFS has knocked out of the park already, and it's just getting started. 

That is what I wrote: "MSFS has started very well and should go on to do better".

The point  that it seems that you missed and that has been amplified by the subsequent posts, that the number of downloads does not necessarily reflect the number of people downloading, stands.

 

Edited July 15, 20214 yr by Reader

2 minutes ago, Reader said:

That is what I wrote: "MSFS has started very well and should go on to do better".

The point  that it seems that you missed and that has been amplified by the subsequent posts, that the number of downloads does not necessarily reflect the number of people downloading, stands.

 

The number of downloads , averaging them, shows the interest that simmers have in MSFS 2020. That's obvious. 

No one is denying that, you are pushing against an open door.

I consider flight simmers that subscribe to Navigraph as more of the "hard core" flight simulator users (well, I doubt casual flight simmers would subscribe to Navigraph).  If Navigraph represents some of the "hard core" flight simmers, they did a survey in Navigraph on who uses MSFS, P3D, and X-Plane.

By the end of last year when this survey was taken, MSFS was the most used flight simulator by the "hard core" flight simmer crowd:

It's reasonable to assume that when more high fidelity airliners make it into MSFS like the Fenix A320, PMDG 737 & 777, etc, even more "hard core" flight simmers will switch to MSFS.  2021 and 2022 will really be the year where MSFS takes off.  P3D and X-Plane have a huge uphill battle in front of them.

Edited July 15, 20214 yr by abrams_tank

47 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

I consider flight simmers that subscribe to Navigraph as more of the "hard core" flight simulator users (well, I doubt casual flight simmers would subscribe to Navigraph).  If Navigraph represents some of the "hard core" flight simmers, they did a survey in Navigraph on who uses MSFS, P3D, and X-Plane.

By the end of last year when this survey was taken, MSFS was the most used flight simulator by the "hard core" flight simmer crowd:

It's reasonable to assume that when more high fidelity airliners make it into MSFS like the Fenix A320, PMDG 737 & 777, etc, even more "hard core" flight simmers will switch to MSFS.  2021 and 2022 will really be the year where MSFS takes off.  P3D and X-Plane have a huge uphill battle in front of them.

Keep in mind that this survey was only  4 months after MSFS was introduced. Now it is almost a year since that time, I imagine that MSFS percentage increase would be much bigger now. 

6 minutes ago, Bobsk8 said:

Keep in mind that this survey was only  4 months after MSFS was introduced. Now it is almost a year since that time, I imagine that MSFS percentage increase would be much bigger now. 

Yup, I absolutely agree with you.  A lot of the "hard core" simmers probably stayed with P3D and X-Plane as the issues in MSFS were being sorted out in the last 11 months, and not all the planes had arrived yet on MSFS.  With the release of Aerosoft's CRJ, PMDG's DC-6, the JustFlight planes, and the fixing of many issues over the last 11 months, I suspect more "hard core" simmers have switched to MSFS. 

When the Fenix A320 and PMDG 737 are released, I suspect even more "hard core" simmers will switch to MSFS.

Edited July 15, 20214 yr by abrams_tank