Currently, 1 in 67 chance of hitting us! 

 

"It's got the innocuous name 2024 YR4, but this large piece of rock could cause "severe damage" if it hits a major town or city.

Scientists are warning that the large asteroid could collide with the earth on 22 December 2032.

The odds of a serious strike are 1/67, but in astronomy terms, that is significant.

Astronomer David Whitehouse told Sky News authorities may need to take measures to deflect the rock if it looks like a collision is likely."

 

 

Edited February 5, 20251 yr by martin-w

Small chance could hit. Hopefully if it does it won't be a populated area.

 

 

Small chance it will hit Earth, but not a zero chance.  Kind of like me, small chance that I won't be around to see it, but not a zero chance.

11 minutes ago, stans said:

Small chance it will hit Earth, but not a zero chance.  Kind of like me, small chance that I won't be around to see it, but not a zero chance.

 

1 in 67 chance at the moment. That might change as more data comes in.

If it hits it would decimate a city.

Most likely a pile of rubble loosely held together. In which case it would be a Tunguska style air blast.

On 2/5/2025 at 8:40 AM, martin-w said:

asteroid could collide with the earth on 22 December 2032.

Interesting. Exactly 20 years after the end of the Mayan calendar. "The Mayan Long Count calendar ended on December 21, 2012." 

I predict we'll be seeing the asteroid a day before they are predicting. 🙂 

Hook

1 in 67 is pretty high as space rocks go though...

I also think that it's naive thinking that our astronomers and detection systems will find ALL of these rocks....some will get thru the "net" of telescopes no doubt.   There was one in recent years that they discovered only a few weeks before it's near-miss of Earth.  It was "only" the size of a school bus, but still...it would have destroyed a good portion of a city if it had hit.

The worst case scenario would be if a large long period comet was detected on a collision course with Earth. Since these objects are not detectable in advance, and are moving faster than standard inner Solar System asteroids, we would have very little time (or hope) of deflecting them. Fortunately, the probability of a long period comet hitting Earth is significantly lower than that of a near Earth asteroid.

23 hours ago, martin-w said:

 

1 in 67 chance at the moment. That might change as more data comes in.

If it hits it would decimate a city.

Most likely a pile of rubble loosely held together. In which case it would be a Tunguska style air blast.

If it actually hit Earth, yes, it would be a massive blast.

18 hours ago, Mace said:

1 in 67 is pretty high as space rocks go though...

I also think that it's naive thinking that our astronomers and detection systems will find ALL of these rocks....some will get thru the "net" of telescopes no doubt.   There was one in recent years that they discovered only a few weeks before it's near-miss of Earth.  It was "only" the size of a school bus, but still...it would have destroyed a good portion of a city if it had hit.

 

I think I'm right in saying that the tricky guys to detect are the ones coming from the direction of the sun.

3 hours ago, stans said:

If it actually hit Earth, yes, it would be a massive blast.

 

Tunguska...

 

 

 

Chances of hitting is now 1 in 32. 3.1%.

17 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Chances of hitting is now 1 in 32. 3.1%.

😲

1 hour ago, DD_Arthur said:

😲

 

I know... not exactly a remote chance. Seems the chances are getting greater rather than less likely.

Party like it's 2031!! 😄 😄 

Hook