35 minutes ago, Gilandred said:

I agree XP growth will soon change for the better, especially with the next gen scenery launch, if it’s as good as what I made up in my imagination 😊.

Regarding MSFS 2024, Jorg stated during this weeks developer stream that it had more users than 2020.  I have my own reasons to doubt that, but then he would be lying would he not?

I am not seeing MSFS 2024 beating MSFS 2020 for users at any point in time. MSFS 2024 is the green line.

Edited October 10, 2025Oct 10 by alanw2005

1 hour ago, mSparks said:

XP12 still has a much smaller userbase than XP11 had.

MSFS2024 has a much, much smaller userbase than MSFS2020 had.

Growth requires more than just new sales, it requires the old sales to stick around and grow with it. I see very little evidence they are.

I do very much expect that to change in the not to distant future, but I don't think anyone is close to meeting the expectations that drove the enthusiasm through 2019, let alone exceeding them.

Userbase != Customerbase.

For someone so prominent in the flight sim community you sure do seem to get a kick out of predicting its demise.

 

 Quite simply a case of confirmation bias.

Quote

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs.

• attitude polarization - when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence. 
• belief perseverance - when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false. 
• the irrational primacy effect - a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series

 

Which explains why when presented with "engagement at record levels" since the last stream, we get:

On 10/9/2025 at 10:05 AM, mSparks said:

500,000 users spent more than $50 on flight sim since the last stream with almost none of them asking for a refund.

 

Edited October 10, 2025Oct 10 by brinx

On 10/9/2025 at 12:25 PM, Gilandred said:

XP12 released in late 2022, and apparently had record sales.  This would also indicate the hobby is doing quite well.  Even if XP lost market share to MSFS, the size of the pie got a whole lot bigger.

Agreed.

On 10/10/2025 at 3:47 PM, FPVSteve said:

Userbase != Customerbase.

For someone so prominent in the flight sim community you sure do seem to get a kick out of predicting its demise.

Not a demise, just a lot of damage that could have absolutely been avoided with a little more patience and a lot less hyperbole.

"Once bitten twice shy".

The whole reason so many developers keep making the same mistakes is so few take that very simple and obvious dynamic seriously.

Otoh, yes,Laminar have benefited quite a lot from microsoft making those mistakes, over, and over and over again.

Flightsim.. not so much.

Oh, and also, where do you think I think those flightsimmers not willing to pay 50% more for microsoft gamepass are going to end up.....

Edited October 11, 2025Oct 11 by mSparks

Sorry, what is the point you're trying to make? 

46 minutes ago, FPVSteve said:

Sorry, what is the point you're trying to make? 

I'm not "predicting demise" I'm pointing out my rationale for why I said we would be where we are today despite all the

https://www.avsim.com/forums/topic/570451-how-to-deal-with-a-user-whose-posts-you-cant-tolerate/

I got at the time for saying so.

"Moved sideways" does not mean "demise".

Well. It might do...

And where will msfs2024 developers be then? Will they have a single user to sell to if MS continue cutting back on expenses and pushing up prices the way they are now?

On 10/10/2025 at 11:07 PM, mSparks said:

XP12 still has a much smaller userbase than XP11 had.

And you know that?? How.  Also xp12 is requring better hardware, many cant afford the upgrade. Needs at least a 10gig GPU, if you want to do anything.

I do get a good chuckle when people who have no access to our analytics, sales data or such... roll out the steam stats and try to tell us how successful we might be... 😁

 

Gents, fly the sim. Worry less about stuff like this. It'll give you less grey hairs! You'll also avoid the weekly "Dunce-of-the-week" board

2 hours ago, mjrhealth said:

And you know that?? How. 

Daily conversations with a couple of thousand flight simmers via the 744 and autoatc for getting on 10 years.

2 hours ago, mjrhealth said:

Also xp12 is requring better hardware, many cant afford the upgrade. Needs at least a 10gig GPU, if you want to do anything.

Absolutely.

And this is fine. XP11 is a rock solid sim, especially with the now freeware enhanced skyscapes. Currently unrivalled for VR performance on moderate hardware. 

But I am not so xplane fanatical to think the world revolves around xplane, it doesn't, msfs gets (got) the eyeballs because they spent more on marketting than Laminar has probably spent in its entire existance, 2019 and into 2020 saw one or two hundred thousand new flight sim users daily, 8 million at least over just a single one month period at its peak. 500,000 between dev streams (a month?) is but a sad fraction of that, and I see zero evidence any of them are still around, the 90% leaving quickly someone mentioned in this or the other thread is probably overly generous.

Edited October 11, 2025Oct 11 by mSparks

On 10/10/2025 at 5:07 AM, mSparks said:

XP12 still has a much smaller userbase than XP11 had.

On Steam, when X-Plane 12 came out, users of X-Plane 11 steadily decreased while users of X-Plane 12 steadily increased which is how the world is supposed to work if you launch a new product properly and if it works properly.

Please note that users of X-Plane 12 and X-Plane 11 who purchased their game directly from Laminar Research or other vendors is not captured here. These are just user stats from one small and insignificant source, but I would like to believe that this sample is representative of the overall picture.

Edited October 12, 2025Oct 12 by alanw2005

Sim of choice stats from 2024. X-Plane 12 is more popular than X-Plane 11. It would be a bizzaro world if this was not the case.

Edited October 12, 2025Oct 12 by alanw2005

Funny thing about MS is in last update, seems they went back from multi thread to single thread, for performance. I must admit it does look nice, But one sim is enough for me.

22 minutes ago, alanw2005 said:

Sim of choice stats from 2024:

The full XP picture there needs a couple of other numbers

Peak steam xplane 11 daily users - 

4,210 all-time peak 5.5 years ago

Peak steam xplane 12 daily users

1,210 all-time peak 6 days ago

Which is part of what I described as "moving sideways"

Microsofts marketting budget (pan product) is currently $25billion+ per year, A sizable chunk of that was dedicated to flight simulation in 2019 and 2020.

Edited October 12, 2025Oct 12 by mSparks

On 9/27/2025 at 2:56 AM, Litjan said:

But is there space for them on your HDD as well?... or will you need to UNINSTALL this one or that one? 😆

Install an SSD game drive.