Malaysian Flight 370

[mike2060 4]

On talk radio yesterday, a T7 captain with over 4K hours in the left seat called in (his claim, not presented here as verified) and brought up what he thinks happened - It's credible.

 

The problem with that theory is the initial turn off course was programmed in before the sign off with Malaysian ATC. Since it would show on both PFDs that means either both pilots were in on it, one had killed the other, or there was a highjacking. I don't think they could have both fought to the death. And for the people who say that programming in an alternate in the FMC is sometimes done, it doesn't make sense that it's done once they reach cruise. Why wouldn't they just do it on the ground so if they experience an emergency while climbing, they'd have a quick way of turning back?

Edited March 23, 2014 by n4gix
Removed the excessive quote!

[CommercialAviator 4]

On talk radio yesterday, a T7 captain with over 4K hours in the left seat called in (his claim, not presented here as verified)

 

If the airplane ascended to 45.000 feet, this theory would make sense. But since the alleged altitude changes derive from primary radar data only (i.e. without reliable altitude reporting from the transponder), it's not for sure if the airplane ascended to 45.000 feet.

 

What we need very baldy is data from the DFDR. Otherwise we will never know what happened.

 

As far as the possible debris are concerned: I think one can exclude sea container since most of them have a length of not more than 12 meters.

The problem with that theory is the initial turn off course was programmed in before the sign off with Malaysian ATC.

 

If the flight plan change was pre-programmed. It's only reported by the media as far as I know, allegedly citing senior American officials.

Edited March 23, 2014 by n4gix
Deleted the excessive quote!

[ZKOKQ 984]

More debris found http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9858370/Debris-spotted-in-missing-plane-search

[zmak 331]

This is also interesting regarding the new Chinese satellite

 

"It said China provided the satellite image to Australia on Saturday night.

"AMSA has plotted the position and it falls within Saturday's search area. The object was not sighted on Saturday," the statement continued."

 

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9858370/Debris-spotted-in-missing-plane-search

[pete_auau 1,163]

It it was a cascading fire or malfunction that spread to every redundant system on the plane, where they couldn't even call a mayday in, then I think Boeing's going to have to ground every 777 in the air until they find out how that could have happened and correct it.

Don't think they will, since what happens if  they never  find the black boxes or the actual aircraft do they keep the t7  grounded  till they find out? This could have happened to any other  aircraft

[zmak 331]

"The first Chinese aircraft heading to Perth to join the hunt landed at the wrong airport on Saturday"

 

http://www.smh.com.au/national/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-abbott-flags-breakthrough-hopes-20140323-35baq.html

[N562Z 4]

I just don't buy the terrorist angle. Call it denial out of want for the world to not be such an ugly place within which my kids will grow up, but that's what I'm going with for the time being until I hear otherwise. That captain LOVED his work, what he did for a living, to the point where he was doing it in his free time as well on a simulator that has subsequently been cleared of containing anything incriminating or nefarious. He even posted videos of his sim on YouTube. We don't think of a 777 as an old aircraft, but that plane was 12 years old, and had millions of nautical miles on it's airframe as well as countless landing and takeoff cycles. Things break, and go wrong, and usually as part of a chain of events, no single one on it's own that would result in such a devastating aftermath, but often at times when solutions that would normally present themselves at the time - using celestial navigation, for example if there had been a complete electrical failure - are not in play because maybe there was limited visibility due to weather - hard to believe at cruising altitude but certainly possible - or a concomitant distraction that also demanded the pilots' attention.

The most compelling thing I've read in this AVSIM thread so far is the hypoxia scenario offered quite a bit earlier, which might explain the observed altitude changes as the plane repetitively climbs, stalls, losses altitude on its own for a number of cycles until it either crashes (would they not have regained consciousness at lower altitudes?) or, as a remote possibility, stabilizes at a higher altitude and eventually flies on with an unconscious crew until fuel exhaustion. This would also explain that out of 230+ souls on board, there was not a single cell phone call made from the aircraft. Surely ONE person on that international passenger manifest must have had a SAT phone capable of calling independent of range to the nearest cell tower. If terrorists had collected the passengers phones, would not that have taken some time with 230+ people on board to the point where another passenger surely would have snuck off a quick call for help? Admittedly, the hypoxia scenario does not explain the disconnection of the mode C transponder.

Only time will tell,

[zmak 331]

This just keeps getting more mysterious

 

Phone SIM card link to MH370 pilot

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2014/03/23/16/20/phone-sim-card-link-to-mh370-pilot

 

the report says investigators are looking into the incident as anyone buying a pre-paid SIM card in Malaysia is subject to an identity check to ensure mobile phone numbers can be traced to people.

In this case the SIM card used to call Captain Shah's phone was traced to a shop in Kuala Lumpur and had been purchased recently by a woman using a false identity.

The practice is common amongst terror groups and every other person who spoke to Captain Shah before the flight has since been interviewed.

[geolpilot 88]

This from the repecent press release by the Malaysian Ministry of Transport (09:45UTC Sunday  23rd March)

 

"3. Update on ACARS transmission

a. The last ACARS transmission, sent at 1.07am, showed nothing unusual. The 1.07am transmission showed a normal routing all the way to Beijing."

 

Hopefully this will put an end to theories that rely on reports that the flight plan was altered 12 mins before the last communication by the co-pilot (at 1.20am). I was always worried at how this was being used to indicate definite foul play, as 1:20-12mins = 1:08 which would be AFTER the last ACARS message was received, so how could anyone have any "evidence" of a new course programmed into the FMC prior to the last communication. Close but no cigar!

 

Still no reason to doubt that the "All right" statement was anything but true as of 1:20am.

 

Have not seen it mentioned here, but at 1:30am (9 mins after the transponder went off), another Malasian 777 ahead of MH370 en-route to Japan said they made contact with MH370 on the emergency frequency, at the requst of Ho Chi Minh centre. The pilot of this 777 thinks it was the co-pilot who responded by that there was a lot of interference, and the co-pilot was "mumbling" so what he said was unintelligible. Later they were again asked to try to make contact but were unable to raise MH370.

 

http://www.nst.com.my/nation/general/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-pilot-i-established-contact-with-plane-1.503464?cache=03%2F7.247954%2F7.266429%2F7.330034%2F7.425366%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.576448%2F7.576448

[tf51d 284]

 

 

Have not seen it mentioned here, but at 1:30am (9 mins after the transponder went off), another Malasian 777 ahead of MH370 en-route to Japan said they made contact with MH370 on the emergency frequency, at the requst of Ho Chi Minh centre. The pilot of this 777 thinks it was the co-pilot who responded by that there was a lot of interference, and the co-pilot was "mumbling" so what he said was unintelligible. Later they were again asked to try to make contact but were unable to raise MH370.



http://www.nst.com.m...576448/7.576448

 

If this is true There's the chance to relay a distress call, and indicates the radios were still working!!

[vololiberista 205]

If this is true There's the chance to relay a distress call, and indicates the radios were still working!!

You forget they tried to make contact again and couldn't. Though I agree they should have made a call to ATC saying they couldn't raise MH370. If the crew were suffering from hypoxia then they wouldn't really know what planet they were on.

[tf51d 284]

You forget they tried to make contact again and couldn't. Though I agree they should have made a call to ATC saying they couldn't raise MH370. If the crew were suffering from hypoxia then they wouldn't really know what planet they were on.

Or the copilot heard the communication attempt over his headset while the plane was being taken over, and opened up the mike in an attempt to allow the calling aircraft to hear what was going on. What really needs to be known was did the mumbling sound like it was directed at them, or was it background mumbling? To know that, they would need the voice recorder from the calling aircraft, which I doubt they saved, if this is just coming out now. There may have been no further attempts, because the copilot got caught. It would be interesting to know if other aircraft was asked to try the same kind of relay, and did they hear anything. It's understandable that the signal would have been weak with this aircraft, because by this time MH370 would be moving away from them in the opposite direction..

[vr-pilot 11]

The most compelling thing I've read in this AVSIM thread so far is the hypoxia scenario offered quite a bit earlier, which might explain the observed altitude changes as the plane repetitively climbs, stalls, losses altitude on its own for a number of cycles until it either crashes (would they not have regained consciousness at lower altitudes?) or, as a remote possibility, stabilizes at a higher altitude and eventually flies on with an unconscious crew until fuel exhaustion.

 

 

Hi Alex,

I think you are refering to the theory I had posted on 2013-03-17 already.

http://forum.avsim.net/topic/436839-malaysian-flight-370/page-10#entry2945078

 

I find it still relatively pausible. The "only" thing that makes me doubt is why exactly after the frequency / controller change from "Lumpur" (KL Radar) to "HoChiMinh"  "everything changed within seconds".

 

 

Still no reason to doubt that the "All right" statement was anything but true as of 1:20am.

 

 

I thought a lot about that, too. Here is what I find plausible:

KL ATC cleared MH370 to climb from FL250  to FL350. On reaching FL350 MH370 informed KL ATC by "MH370 at  FL350". KL ATC answered "maintain FL350". Over 6 minutes later MH370 reports "MH 370 maintaining FL350...". KL ATC only answers by a confirmative callsign repitition "...MH370". At this point the crew of MH370 probably expected a clearance for FL370, which would have been normal at that point for a T7 on that flight. Weather conditions (light tailwind, left of the center of a weak high pressure system, -42°C @ FL340, -54°C @ FL390) were actually good for a clearance to FL390 already.

So the "Alright, good night" at the end of the conversation with KL ATC could implement a little sign of frustration of not having got what they probably expected.

 

 

The pilot of this 777 thinks it was the co-pilot who responded by that there was a lot of interference, and the co-pilot was "mumbling" so what he said was unintelligible.

 

That is interesting news and thank you for the link. The "mumbling" on 121.5 (international emergency frequency) might have been the crew being busy with their oxygen masks. Probably what could be heard were their voices or commands through their headset's mics, as they had not already switched to their mask mics.

That again would make the explosion and/or fire followed by decompression even more plausible.

 

I hope they find the "plane" very soon.

 

Greetings,

Claus

[vololiberista 205]

What is sad is that ATC were not 'alerted' to the fact that communication was lost. They should have immediately instigated a search especially when there was no radar return. What was being done during the hours that it was supposed to be flying over China? Nothing? If they were tracking it why wasn't a fighter sent up to investigate as it left radar cover? One wonders that the finger pointing to the crew is to deflect attention away from the authorities who should have acted much sooner.

[january 19]

One wonders that the finger pointing to the crew is to deflect attention away from the authorities who should have acted much sooner.

 

Which authorities? Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam, Laos, or Cambodia? On a weekend???

january