Expect less A380's if any at all, and expect more drone type aircraft. That is my prediction for the next 20-30 years! Pilots will soon need to find other jobs, as computers will take over their roles completely! 

Just a few months ago, everybody was scared of the pilot comitting suicide with everybody aboard. People will accept not having pilots, just as they already accept trains without engineers, and the driverless cars already in development. There is nothing wrong with planes now, it's just that there will be planes that are going to be cheaper to operate because they have one less pilot. Just as planes got more sophisticated and more economical by getting rid of the navigator, then getting rid of the engineer, and next, the copilot.

 

At your age, you should still be able to get a career in, but you will likely be part of the drawdown of pilots towards your later years, as they introduce the single pilot plane, and then the fully autonomous plane after that.

Yea I can say I won't be getting on a plane without a pilot,flying is a lot more complex than a trains and cars with those you can simply stop if somthing goes wrong in the air you still have to get it on the ground and there is no computer than can fly a heavily damaged plane to a safe landing.

It all comes down to money. If it's cheaper, it will happen. Pretty much everything on this planet(or at least in the good old USA) is driven by money. So, even though pilot is a great job, it will go away, at least in commercial airlines because it will save them money and that's really all that matters. Safety (hopefully) is next but money trumps all.

Yes everything is this world could be automated but where are people going to earn the money to buy things if every job is done by a computer. If they can't earn money no one will buy any products.

Yea I can say I won't be getting on a plane without a pilot,flying is a lot more complex than a trains and cars with those you can simply stop if somthing goes wrong in the air you still have to get it on the ground and there is no computer than can fly a heavily damaged plane to a safe landing.

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Actually, they're already working on controls that adapt to damage.

 

http://aviationweek.com/technology/usaf-test-pilots-school-vets-safer-adaptive-flight-controller

By the way KevinAu is that you? You were the real life airline pilot that answered my questions about the ERJ 145 a few months back. Good to see you.

Anyways, klamal, you are right. The airlines have turned flying into an industry, so I'm not surprised to see that money is their first priority, and (hopefully) safety next. Such a shame :-(.

I'm grateful for all of your opinions. To be honest I was more or less just wondering if most of the aircraft flying now will be flying by around 2025 to 2030. Only reason I ask is because a lot of these aircraft today I wish I could fly but I'm not sure how much longer they will be around.

The airlines have turned flying into an industry, so I'm not surprised to see that money is their first priority, and (hopefully) safety next.

It's always been an industry, they're not doing it for fun. The airlines being publicly owned (in most cases) have share holders to answer to and need to make a profit any number of ways. Looking back in airline history, it's a tough business with lots of failed airlines and bankruptcies.

 

Robert Crandall one of the former American Airlines CEO's once said in an interview years ago that the airlines were wonderful companies to work for but horrible businesses to invest in. Now, it can be argued that they're not even wonderful companies to work for depending on the position.

 

Over the past few years I've known a few airline pilots and talked to some that I'd just meant and the job was described as tolerable, unsatisfying, horrible pay, etc. Even worse if you don't get trained in the military and rack up $90,000 or more in debt going to an aviation school to get all your training.

 

A lady that used to work for me was dating a guy who was flying for American Eagle fresh out of training from some aviation school in the US. We met for lunch one day and I picked his brain about his job. Frankly he said it was not that great and not really what he expected going into it. He spent just under $100,000 for school and training, started at American Eagle flying the ATR72 when they still had those and was making around $28,000 starting off. Due to the low pay, he had to get a second partime job to supplement his income and had to have a roommate to split living expenses. On top of that, the hours are horrible, works lots of weekends and holidays. You get my drift. I hadn't spoken to him in a few years and don't know what he's doing now.

 

On the flip side, if you want to do something in aviation and make good money, albeit a stressful job depending on where your working, become and air traffic controller. They make good money starting out and have good benefits. In a previous job I had, I had an air traffic controller at my desk one day to do financial planning, and when he disclosed his income statements he was making over $130,000 a year at DFW. I can't remember what he was doing, but I think it was departure control, but I was shocked at how much he made, granted he'd been around a while, but something to think about as well.

 

You can always get a career where you make serious money and buy/rent your own plane and fly for fun, which is the reason most of us start flying in the first place. Sometimes when things that are fun as a hobby, they lose their appeal when they become a job or career, especially if your not making much money at it starting out and have a lot of debt to pay off.

The TV show "Front Line" from PBS had a great show on piloting these days. It's available on line at PBS.

 

 

If I was going to fly for a living, I would skip the bus with wings sector, and move to alaska. Cargo and Bush would most likely be a more satisfying flying carrer. Just about all future piloting jobs are moving down in income. You can't take this job thinking your going to make

hugh money. The 1950's era flying ended in 1960, and those days will never happen again.. even though the "glamour" and "romance" of those days persist in the ethos..

True. Those are all good points. I guess there are a lot of aviation related careers. I'm not much of a prop person though, I want to fly jets. I guess in that case the best option would be a corporate jet business, or something along those lines.

You all seem to be under the impression that by 2045 all or most flying will be automated and all A320neos and 737MAXs will be long gone. Airliners seem to have a lifespan of approximately 40 years or so in service, with the last 5-10 years tapering off as they serve only one or two big carriers or a handful of smaller airlines. I see no reason why this would change. When the 737MAX starts airline service in, say, 2020, it can be estimated that they will last until at least 2050 or 2060, or maybe even more because of increasing maintenance and build standards (everyone also seems to be under the impression that modern airliners are cheaply made crap that doesn't last as long as the old stuff, but I haven't seen any evidence of this). After the neos/MAXs/A350s/787s go, we'll most likely see a new generation with improved systems, more automation (the same thing we've been seing since 1903) and maybe single-pilot systems. I don't doubt that by the end of the century we will see a pilotless airliner get developed, but I think that people are overestimating how quickly the change will come. We have definitely seen a decrease in the growth of technology over the last 10 years, and we are starting to reach the limits of what is possible with the current 'metal tube with with wings at 30k feet' model. What's most likely, in my opinion, is that in 2100 the first airline with an automated virgin-glactic-like spaceplane will start service. It will experience growing pains, and get slowly implemented until it becomes the norm in 2170 or so. So, I think the OP will be stuck with his A320s and 737s for quite some time. 

 

Any big Airbus can fly completely autonomously from just after take off to just after touchdown. The crew merely turn lights on and off, monitor the radios and change frequencies. Modern Boeings, likewise

Really? I don't think that's true. A modern airliner can do what a pilot tells it to do automatically, nothing more. It can't think or reason like the pilot to determine the best course of action for the flight. It's just a big computer that translate what the pilot wants to do into 1s and 0s. "Complete Autonomy" would mean that the crew would be able to get into the plane at the airport, go to sleep, and wake up at the destination, provided that they didn't need to turn the lights on and off.. 

I was not saying things instantaneously change in 2045. Like I said earlier, I believe the current new planes will be reaching the end of their lives in 20 years. So at that point, the next generation will begin to replace the first of those. And that will mean a decade for replacement. So, 2015+20=2035. Around 2035, the replacement of this generation's aircraft, the single pilot planes, will begin service. By, 2045, the single pilot plane should be the standard and the current 2 pilot aircraft relegated to secondary roles. At that point, it means only half the number of pilots per fleet will be needed and the writing will be very clear on the wall that piloting is a dying profession. 20 years from 2035, the fully automated plane will likely begin service. That would be 2055. And it will take another decade to fully replace the single pilot aircraft. I think you overestimate the useful life of aircraft. They only last 15-30 years. The 737-300 took over in the 1980's. They were mostly replaced in the 2000's by the 737NGs. Now in the 2020's , they will be replaced by the Max's. I expect the max's replacement to be well underway by 2040. The 747-400 was new in the mid '90s. They are almost gone now. It's reign was about 20 years. The ERJ and CRJ 50 seaters were new in the mid '90s and fully fleeted in the early 2000's. They can't be parked fast enough right now. Again, a 15-25 year reign.

 

Any of the current modern planes can be made very easily to be fully autonomous. Yes there are levers and switches that 'need' a human pilot to manipulate at the moment. But that is only a courtesy to those of us in the union. If they wanted to, the ability to take us out of the loop is just a software and some extra wiring away. Even now, flightplans can be uplinked from ATC and automatically entered into the FMC. Circuit breakers don't even have to be pulled by hand, they are computer controlled through the FMC. ATC can see what speed or altitude we have dialled in, it won't be that hard for them to upgrade their systems to uplink ad hoc instructions directly to the flight guidance. The only thing that needs some actual development is autonomous taxiiing. The automation in the current planes make them single pilot capable in flight. The other guy is there as quality control. Once you build a plane with the latest military uav technologies, you can easily dispense with the second pilot. Each plane will be operated by a ground team that oversees many flights and a pilot aboard each and you will have lost nothing in the quality control and gained in the amount of oversight of each flight.

Well, at least that means I may have the opportunity to fly the 737 max in my lifetime. Back to the topic, what happens if a pilot in a single pilot airliner decides to do something bad? As KevinAu already said, a pilot committed suicide with everyone on board (I believe he's talking about the German wings crash) well, on a single pilot plane there is no co-pilot to stop him from doing what ever he wants?

 

So you may say that the controls will be airbus like and stop the pilot from doing un-wanted inputs, but who knows? At least these days if there's a computer failure there's a pilot that knows how to solve it and a co-pilot to check that he's doing it right as well as assist in flying the plane? I just don't see it working.

 

Uav's in the military don't have any pilots on them, but they don't have any passengers on them either. I guess it's just a really controversial subject. I know it will happen for sure, I'm just not sure we're quite ready to advance to that level yet...

 

Anyways, if they make airliners unmanned, hopefully GA aircraft would still be in the mix to fly, but if there's no air traffic controllers, who knows. We'll just have to see

 

taneb

There have been several suicids by airliner. Egypt Air 767, Silkair 737, an E190 in Africa and Germanwings being the latest. Having another pilot aboard didn't stop those. At least witn an airliner that is controllable by company operations and atc, the single pilot aboard is never alone.

Around 2035, the replacement of this generation's aircraft, the single pilot planes, will begin service. By, 2045, the single pilot plane should be the standard and the current 2 pilot aircraft relegated to secondary roles. 

I guess I'm not as optimistic as you. Even with the MAX and NEO coming online, with the shear number of 'classic' A320s and 737NGs I could easily see them lasting until 2035, after which the NEOs and MAXs will rule the sky in full force. Maybe the next generation after that would have single pilot ops. Remember that there would be massive hurdles for single pilot operations to be approved: the technology would have to be perfected, airlines would have to get on board, regulatory agencies would need to approve it, the public would need to be convinced, and of course the pilot unions would have to be reasoned with. Even after all those hurdles, 10 years still seems pretty short to go from the first single-pilot planes to them being the norm. Remember how DC-9s effectively started 2-pilot mainline ops back in the 60s. Then, in the 80s, the 767 and A300 introduced 2 man cockpits to long haul flying. It wasn't until the early 90s when 2 person cockpits across both short and long haul flights became the norm. So, I could see it being 20 years at least form first implementation until it becomes relatively normal, and maybe more if only because of the severe union backlash it will face. 

 

And it's true that modern airliners are VERY automated, but things like automated taxiing are nothing to sneeze at. And, like I said earlier, the computer can't think like a human can, and thinking/being able to adapt to changing situations is kinda important when piloting a plane.

 

Whatever, we'll see I suppose, but 35 years is IMO way, way to soon for 2 pilot aircraft to be "regulated to secondary roles". 

Flight crew errors are the largest contribution to aircraft accidents.

 

Boeing reports that flight crew errors acccount for 70% of  civil full-loss accidents.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_08/human_textonly.html.

 

The IATA Safety Report issued April 2015 confirms that 73% of fatal accidents are related to flight crew errors.

www.iata.org/publications/Documents/iata-safety-report-2014.pdf

Flight crew errors are the largest contribution to aircraft accidents.

 

And how many potential accidents resulting from systems/automation malfunctions have flight crews avoided? That would be an interesting statistic.

 

However, I think single pilot ops will be accepted by the public only if the ultimate authority on aircraft control will be taken from the on-board pilot, and given to a ground station (which is much easier to monitor than the onboard pilot to avoid possible suicide scenarios).

And how many potential accidents resulting from systems/automation malfunctions have flight crews avoided? That would be an interesting statistic.

 

Non-zero, but definitely smaller. There's been a consistent trend towards greater safety in aviation as we've let the pilots do less and less.

 

Cheers!

 

Luke