If memory serves me correctly this survey instrument was administered relatively soon after the announcement of MSFS. I would expect the trend to be significantly different already and will continue to grow as we get more and more screen shots, videos, alpha "leaks", etc.

https://www.thresholdx.net/news/navi19

"Navigraph Survey Results 2019: Microsoft Flight Simulator Set to Dominate"

Quote

As aforementioned, MFS may become one of, if not, the largest product in desktop (and console) flight simulation history. In 2018, 16% considered changing to Prepar3D, but that figure fell to just 2% for last year. Surprisingly, fewer users think about using X-Plane as their main simulator, down to just 1% from 2018's figure of 20%.

I think MS will look at these numbers and think it's fantastic.

For those of you surprised by "only" 56% saying they'd replace their current sims with MSFS should pay more attention to the question asked. Someone currently using XP11 can still purchase MSFS but not have it REPLACE their current sim as their most used software. This makes sense when you realize a lot of people will want to wait and see how things will be when they have the new sim "in their hands".

Edited February 5, 20206 yr by Krakin

I must say, Threshold is a surprisingly unbiased X-Plane community.

14 hours ago, Rob_Ainscough said:

perhaps that got clobbered by MFS PR machine with 45% holding off on purchases.

It is just hard to believe how the MS PR guys were able to kill nearly half of the sales for Flight Sims in a matter of weeks. That kind of power should make us all a bit nervous. I continue to hope that the new sim pans out and it is everything they are saying turns out to work as advertised. I do have a hard time understanding why so many have decided to just stop "flying" based on advertising blitzing. It is like saying that you are turning off your cell phone until everyone has 5G up and running.

Edited February 5, 20206 yr by charliearon
Removed objectionalble word

9 minutes ago, shivers9 said:

It is just hard to believe how the MS PR monkeys were able to kill nearly half of the sales for Flight Sims in a matter of weeks. That kind of power should make us all a bit nervous. I continue to hope that the new sim pans out and it is everything they are saying turns out to work as advertised. I do have a hard time understanding why so many have decided to just stop "flying" based on advertising blitzing. It is like saying that you are turning off your cell phone until everyone has 5G up and running.

Some notes:

• Calling them monkeys i think is disrespectful, they are doing their job and quite successfully so. And let's not kid ourselves, their own success comes first of all from their offerings, not the PR and marketing. The product is solid, the number of feature is big compared to decade old simulators we currently have. I didn't see you complain about them before however, considering that the simulator you list in your signature is based on the engine Microsoft created and probably the same "PR monkeys" worked on to convince "Lockheed Martin" to adopt in their new platform.
•  There is a difference between stopping from buying new addons and from flying. We are talking about the first of the two. They just keep flying with all the addons they have gathered during the years (which i am fairly certain it isn't just a few)

Edited February 5, 20206 yr by Pastaiolo

1 hour ago, shivers9 said:

It is just hard to believe how the MS PR monkeys were able to kill nearly half of the sales for Flight Sims in a matter of weeks. That kind of power should make us all a bit nervous.

Even if the decline in sales is as drastic as you say, Microsoft aren't killing anything. The hype isn't coming the Microsoft PR team doing their job, it's coming from the fact that there appear to be worlds between current sims and MSFS. This hobby has been far too stagnant for a long time now and seems to be somewhat stuck in the past. It's about time we get something contemporary and with the Azure technology behind a large part of MSFS you might say it could be even more than just contemporary. If P3D or XP were on a comparable level there would be substantially less fuss. This is different from something like cell phones, for example, which are thrown out every year anew with relatively minor enhancements compared to the previous version. If MSFS delivers what it promises it will be one giant leap for simkind. It's the vast difference between current sims and what MSFS appears to become.

Edited February 5, 20206 yr by threegreen

31 minutes ago, threegreen said:

This hobby has been far too stagnant for a long time now and seems to be somewhat stuck in the past.

True words, true words...

32 minutes ago, threegreen said:

If MSFS delivers what it promises it will be one giant leap for simkind.

Entering hype mode. 😄

9 hours ago, aleex said:

I’m sure that when the game is released that will rise to 80% or so. 

Maybe 80% will purchase it right away, but I doubt 80% will replace their existing sim(s) right away.  That's likely the reason for only 56% in the survey.

I think it would be a good idea to calm down and read the complete report. Looks very comprehensive.

Cheers, Ed

39 minutes ago, Mace said:

Maybe 80% will purchase it right away, but I doubt 80% will replace their existing sim(s) right away.  That's likely the reason for only 56% in the survey.

If the sim is good enough, I don’t see any reason why people will stay with older ones. Even more if 3rd parties start releasing aircrafts for them as soon as it seems. 

And even with that I left a 20% for miscellaneous/hardware reasons. 

1 hour ago, tweekz said:

Entering hype mode. 😄

While keeping a healthy bit of caution in anticipation of this sim I couldn't resist throwing that out there. 🙂

Edited February 5, 20206 yr by threegreen

2 hours ago, aleex said:

If the sim is good enough, I don’t see any reason why people will stay with older ones.

Verity is the spice of life!

1 minute ago, jpc55 said:

Verity is the spice of life!

I know. But I see so many missing or poor default things in the sim I use (not P3D), that I can’t imagine coming back 😕

I personally use Flight because it gives me a purpose to fly, and I use FSX-SE to fly my favorite aircraft. I do not know that both of these things will exist in the new MsFS.

3 hours ago, aleex said:

If the sim is good enough, I don’t see any reason why people will stay with older ones.

Hmm...I can think of a lot reasons why people will keep 64-bit P3D around.