Interesting predictions from Dave. I tend to agree with some/most of them. Time as always will tell

Since we're on the subject of forecasts - here's the article I was working on during the first half of the week.

I'll repeat my disclaimer - I was one of several people providing editorial support for this.  The viewpoint, the data, and the interpretation of the data belong to the authors.

As you'll see, it's a fairly dense, data-driven set of scenarios about what recovery might look like.  It tracks best-case, middle and worst-case scenarios through a series of phases.

The focus is largely in the U.S., though with implications elsewhere, especially for consumer-driven economies like the U.K.

It was fascinating to spend several days living with the models and the data.  What I found particularly noteworthy was the way in which the analysis is grounded in a breakdown of the U.S. economy by sector - which analysis notes that a significant chunk of the economy consists of things like restaurants and retail stores that involve high levels of contact and are not highly critical to the economy.  That, according to the authors, represents a drag on the economy alongside the more general impact of unemployment and sharply reduced spending.

Fair warning that even the best-case models aren't highly optimistic.  Of course, because they're models, there's room for disagreement.

Hope you find it interesting.

Edited April 17, 20206 yr by Alan_A

I gotta agree with your predictions and assessments Dave.  That's what I see in my part of the country.

In SE New Mexico we have few cases and no deaths so far.  In the county in which I live there were 18 cases for a long time and a week or so ago that number jumped to 19.

The problems are in the metro areas of Albuquerque and Santa Fe to some extent but a disaster in the Navajo Nation of northwest New Mexico.  They are being hit very hard.  But there is a reason for that.  Those who live outside the city of Gallup out on the reservation have very poor sanitary conditions.  They have no plumbing and have outhouses.  They have to travel to a water point with their 50 gallon drums two or three times a week to get water both for drinking and bathing.  Add to that the alcohol problem.

I am not wearing a mask and social distancing is hap hazard at best.  The only place I see it is at the checkout stand in the super market.  They have circles painted on the floor 6 feet apart.  But space only allows about three customers for each stand.  Beyond that it is a line as usual.  And perhaps 20% of the people are wearing masks.  And with two-way traffic in the shopping lanes it is impossible to maintain 6 feet of separation as people pass you going in the opposite direction or the person behind you passes when you stop to read a label.

There is no 6 foot separation at the WalMart self checkout lanes.

That would all change if a significant uptick in COVID-19  cases were to appear.  But it demonstrates that the response is not a one size fits all situation. 

I add that our restaurants and theaters and gyms are closed as well as many small businesses.  One of he gyms has announced it will not reopen when things settle down and neither will some of the small businesses like one of the jewelry shops.  The closing of the gyms has prompted me to buy a stationary bicycle and another TV set to watch while I am using it.

We certainly sympathize with the person mentioned above who had 5 family members die.  Even if one family member dies then the 1 or 2 percent fatality rate jumps to 100 percent for you.

With 90% or more of the fatalities being persons over 65 I still maintain COVID-19 is nature's way of thinning the herd.  That might sound callous to some of you but that's nature at work.  And I am in that group.  If I were a caribou or a wildebeest I would be at the edge of herd, more vulnerable to predation than the youngsters in the center of the herd.  I accept that.

Noel

Edited April 17, 20206 yr by birdguy

And here's more data to factor into the discussion.  This, once again, comes from Dr. Katelyn Jetelina at the University of Texas, Houston.  In this post, she presents aggregate data from Google, based on cell phone tracking, about where people in several states are going, and how that correlates with the incidence of new infections. (Side note - it's possible to feel uneasy about tracking cell phone data, but on the other hand the information about mobility is extremely valuable in providing insight into how the infection spreads).

Her focus here is on seven states - including mine - that are reporting high rates of new infections (increases of over 15 percent during the past week).

In all of them, there was a high level of mobility - largely to parks, but in a couple of instances (like South Dakota) to grocery stores.

She notes that the connection between mobility and new cases is becoming predictable, and suggests that it bears watching as state and local jurisdictions consider when and how to lift restrictions.

Presented in support of our ongoing discussion here.

 

Edited April 17, 20206 yr by Alan_A

13 minutes ago, birdguy said:

I gotta agree with your predictions and assessments Dave.  That's what I see in my part of the country.

In SE New Mexico we have few cases and no deaths so far.  In the county in which I live there were 18 cases for a long time and a week or so ago that number jumped to 19.

The problems are in the metro areas of Albuquerque and Santa Fe to some extent but a disaster in the Navajo Nation of northwest New Mexico.  They are being hit very hard.  But there is a reason for that.  Those who live outside the city of Gallup out on the reservation have very poor sanitary conditions.  They have no plumbing and have outhouses.  They have to travel to a water point with their 50 gallon drums two or three times a week to get water both for drinking and bathing.  Add to that the alcohol problem.

I am not wearing a mask and social distancing is hap hazard at best.  The only place I see it is at the checkout stand in the super market.  They have circles painted on the floor 6 feet apart.  But space only allows about three customers for each stand.  Beyond that it is a line as usual.  And perhaps 20% of the people are wearing masks.  And with two-way traffic in the shopping lanes it is impossible to maintain 6 feet of separation as people pass you going in the opposite direction or the person behind you passes when you stop to read a label.

There is no 6 foot separation at the WalMart self checkout lanes.

That would all change if a significant uptick in COVID-19  cases were to appear.  But it demonstrates that the response is not a one size fits all situation.

We certainly sympathize with the person mentioned above who had 5 family members die.  Even if one family member dies then the 1 or 2 percent fatality rate jumps to 100 percent for you.

With 90% or more of the fatalities being persons over 65 I still maintain COVID-19 is nature's way of thinning the herd.  That might sound callous to some of you but that's nature at work.  And I am in that group.  If I were a caribou or a wildebeest I would be at the edge of herd, more vulnerable to predation than the youngsters in the center of the herd.  I accept that.

Noel

Thanks, Noel.  I've actually tried to use facts, and believe it or not, common sense, to reach my conclusions, while refraining from injecting partisan politics into the discussion.

I really hope I'm right.

 

Dave

 

Edited April 17, 20206 yr by dave2013

23 minutes ago, birdguy said:

I accept that.

There are a small but precious number of loved ones in my family who reside within the age groups especially threatened by this virus. I would hazard to say that they would uniformly repudiate your reasoning for themselves, and are either isolating, or diligently wearing their masks when they do leave home.

I honestly appreciate your attitude, and even support it as your sovereign choice to make: right up until you are standing with no mask next to me or anyone I care for in the line at Walmart, isolated low incidence area or not.....

Obviously how we choose to respond to this situation can affect far more than just ourselves, and the issue quickly becomes more complex, especially as we look at assumed obligations to each other, including complete strangers within a connected society.

That elderly lady glaring at me (yes it's happened) in the store because I got a bit too close, even in my mask and gloves, is not interested in herds! 🤣

Edited April 17, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

32 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

Hope you find it interesting.

Thanks Alan for posting this, very good read! 

Martin

HiFlyer, there comes a time when death becomes acceptable to one's self.  I never thought I would live as long as I have.  And being quite healthy I probably have a few more years left in me.

I often wonder what I am going to die of, for die I  must...as must all of us.  I know it won't be heart disease or from smoking because I have never smoked.  I see my primary guy every three months.  A cardiologist twice a year.  The renal specialist and the pulmonary specialist once a year.  And I get a green light from all of them.

So my guess it will be massive stroke.  Or I might be at the wrong place at the wrong time and get hit by stray bullet in a store or a mall or a theater or a restaurant given I live in a country where firearms are available to every nut who has some kind of grudge.  Or perhaps I will get hit by a drunk or texting driver.  One thing I'm sure of.  It won't be COVID-19.  Even if I get it I have no underlying causes to worry about.

But even if I live to be a hundred or more my death will sadden family members.  That's the nature of life.  But I think as you get older...into your senior years, you begin to contemplate death.  You begin to accept it.  You come to a point where you are not afraid of it.  I'm at that point now.

Noel

I found your article quite interesting Alan.  I forwarded the link to an economics professor I know.  I'd like to get his take on it.

Noel

@birdguy - Thanks, Noel! I'd be interested in hearing his take as well.  Obviously there are a lot of different ways to interpret the data - hope your econ professor friend is willing to share a reaction.

On 4/16/2020 at 5:56 AM, Alan_A said:

I also have one colleague in Massachusetts who has either covid or strep throat, no one's sure.  They've locked him in his bedroom for seven days just to be safe...

A pity the gentleman cannot be tested to make sure which is which. Do we have a definitive test to rule out strep throat?

On 4/16/2020 at 8:52 AM, Mallard said:

... "more than a third of Irish people say they are unsure if they would accept a potential vaccine for Covid-19 if one was developed...". The only way around that would probably to simply say that if you haven't had the jab, you're not allowed out of your home....

That would be the way I feel at the moment.. and I'm English!

I do not want to be injected with something that isn't 100% guaranteed to either cure or prevent covid-19. Anything else is heading towards conspiracy theory of what the authorities want to put in your veins...

At the moment I couldn't care less if I never work again. I've never felt so free under the current restrictions.. (on furlough).

There. I've said it.. I feel better for expressing my feelings. Thank you.

1 hour ago, Alan_A said:

Since we're on the subject of forecasts - here's the article I was working on during the first half of the week.

I'll repeat my disclaimer - I was one of several people providing editorial support for this.  The viewpoint, the data, and the interpretation of the data belong to the authors.

As you'll see, it's a fairly dense, data-driven set of scenarios about what recovery might look like.  It tracks best-case, middle and worst-case scenarios through a series of phases.

The focus is largely in the U.S., though with implications elsewhere, especially for consumer-driven economies like the U.K.

It was fascinating to spend several days living with the models and the data.  What I found particularly noteworthy was the way in which the analysis is grounded in a breakdown of the U.S. economy by sector - which analysis notes that a significant chunk of the economy consists of things like restaurants and retail stores that involve high levels of contact and are not highly critical to the economy.  That, according to the authors, represents a drag on the economy alongside the more general impact of unemployment and sharply reduced spending.

Fair warning that even the best-case models aren't highly optimistic.  Of course, because they're models, there's room for disagreement.

Hope you find it interesting.

I did find it interesting...but not compelling.

A couple thoughts, though--first and foremost, the veracity of any data coming from China is a serious problem.  Conflicting data, such as something like 21+ million cell phones going dark in China during the same period they claimed no new cases, undermines any analysis using Chinese data in its foundation.  Without some credible explanation of how data coming from such a questionable and manipulative source as the GOC can be relied on, it makes all the comparisons and conclusions based on that data highly suspect.

Re: the "final" phase--there's a third unmentioned option other than an effective vaccine or antiviral treatment.  The virus could just spread through the population and naturally burn itself out.  Consider the Spanish Flu, which faded away after flashing through the population (twice) without the existence of either a vaccine or an effective treatment.  I think it's reasonable to plan for a final phase regardless of whether it's medicine or natural herd immunity that solves the problem, perhaps even quickly enough to render further control efforts a moot point before a vaccine can be deployed.

I don't think 99% of the world population is going to prove willing to starve in order to protect the other 1%.  Assumptions that entire populations will be amenable to further sacrifices in the name of curve-flattening, even if exponential growth again begins to take hold, fail to take into account human nature and the psychology of masses, particularly when threatened.  Democratic governments are not going to be able to force repeated lockdowns without facing revolt, be it through the likes of votes of no confidence, recall elections, or outright insurrection.  I think we're fast approaching that point already here in the US.

 

On 4/16/2020 at 5:42 PM, W2DR said:

Sigh.....You're part of the problem Noel..

I don't believe he's infected yet 

10 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

A pity the gentleman cannot be tested to make sure which is which. Do we have a definitive test to rule out strep throat?

He finally was tested (apparently tests are much easier to come by in western Massachusetts than they are in, say New York).  Came back negative for covid, thankfully.  So I guess it's strep by process of elimination.