One Sim To Rule Them All

[abrams_tank 7,424]

16 minutes ago, tweekz said:

That chart doesn't look bad for MSFS anyway. The massive drop in the beginning is normal for a new release. It looks different if you consider the past 6 months.

For now it's stable 2 - 3x the users of XP. Which implies 2-3x more non-casuals and potential customers. Note: I'm not saying XP will die - it won't.

The trend correlates with XP.

Also, a large chunk of players play MSFS through Windows Store and not Steam.  I don’t have the numbers, but my guess is, maybe 1/2 of MSFS players use Windows Store.

Does anybody know what percentage of X-Plane players launch it without going through Steam?

Edited June 5, 2021 by abrams_tank

[Janov 2,383]

17 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

Also, a large chunk of players play MSFS through Windows Store and not Steam.  I don’t have the numbers, but my guess is, maybe 1/2 of MSFS players use Windows Store.

Does anybody know what percentage of X-Plane players launch it without going through Steam?

I agree that Steam charts don´t show the whole picture... I think the exact numbers and ratios are not known (publicly) for either MSFS or X-Plane.

For X-Plane I can say that traditionally people have bought the software from Laminar Research directly (Austin used to mail copies to you directly) - but of course they have recently moved to online download distribution (although the DVD option is still available). You can also buy the software (key) at various other online stores.

So we can´t really say "which percentage" is represented by the Steam charts, its just the best we have, and I would say gives a "general idea".

Like Tweekz said, I would not consider the huge drop in user numbers after the initial launch - normal for any game.

The last 6 months are a better representation. You can really see the spikes in interest after Updates came out for MSFS, but overall the trend for BOTH XP and MSFS is slightly downward over the last 6 months.

The future viability of any platform can not be estimated by this graph, vastly more interesting would be some metrics that indicate how many people are ready to buy (or generate revenue in some other way like DLC or an associated online store) either software over the next 1-2 years.

[eslader 1,784]

On 6/3/2021 at 5:12 PM, VFXSimmer said:

Hard to believe it’s come here from the white lines on a green and blue flat plane that represented Meigs Field on my Commodore 64.

I remember going crosseyed at the manual for what I'm pretty sure was the first Sublogic version. Saying something or other about using landmarks to orient yourself.  Uh.  *what* landmarks? There's a black and white grid that's supposed to be the ground, and some jaggy lines for mountains, and an X on the grid that I think is an airport.. And that's about it. 

I remember the gauges in that one looked like a vandal spraypainted them on a wall. Purple and green, with obviously hand-drawn fonts.   And I thought it was amazing at the time.  Hasn't really been all that many years from then to now, and even though it's been out for the better part of a year I still find the visuals to be jawdropping in MSFS. 

 

[pmb 5,137]

2 hours ago, tweekz said:

That chart doesn't look bad for MSFS anyway. The massive drop in the beginning is normal for a new release. It looks different if you consider the past 6 months.

In my mind, the massive drop in the beginning was completely caused by people not flying but just concurrently downloading the ~100 GB, sometimes several times because of issues. Thus, you can forget about this, figures starting from a month after release can be taken more seriously.

Besides, you can see a drop of Steam concurrent usage figures for all major sims on Steam since the beginning of this year (the exception being AeroflyFS2 - oh well, peaking around 20 right now). I'm convinced this tendency reflects the non-Steam versions as well - no reason to expect otherwise. Maybe it's just seasonal or something else which I don't know, but it's a fact. 

Another indicator are positive/negative Steam reviews where MSFS is around 75% right now. That's nearly the same value as for AeroflyFS2. ETS2 is at 97%, even Train Sim World 2 got 83% positive reviews

Certainly, all those figures have to be taken with a grain of salt, but I don't think that's the figures MS wanted to see. If you look into the reviews (and Steam fora) negative reviews are not so much on the sim itself but on installation and upgrade issues, and I am under the impression MS understood that's the field they have to work on with priority.

Kind regards, Michael

[Janov 2,383]

1 hour ago, pmb said:

Maybe it's just seasonal or something else which I don't know, but it's a fact. 

I also think that it is a combination of seasonal effect (weather getting better), lifting of COVID restrictions, and possibly also a general loss of interest in the genre after the initial excitement of the new player wears off (for BOTH sims!).

Flightsimulators are a special brand of "games" - where there is no goal to reach, no levels to climb, no characters to max out. It takes a special breed of user to stay with a "game" like this for months or even years, and I would venture to say that the new generation of gamers these days does not have the tenacity, frustration tolerance, patience and long-lasting interest in something as boring as "simply flying around" 🙂

I bet that both simulators would be vastly more succesful in the long run if there was an extensive online community, special liveries you could "earn", levels to achieve, missions to accomplish, virtual careers to live. Anyone remember A.T.P.?

Even the various offers like online flying (VATSIM etc) and online missions (FSEconomy and the like) are ALL difficult to set up, understand, offer boring tasks (fly 5 workers from A to B, wow!!) and have no real social component (compared to successful multiplayer games). There is a world of opportunity here, I think - something that we "hardcore" simmers might scoff at, but something that would certainly help in keeping new players interested past the initial two months.

Edited June 5, 2021 by Janov

[andy1252 3,869]

I'm a big fan of MSFS. As I've said on a few times and in a few places, my main desire has always been a really good looking world simulator, in which we can also fly. I'm a late starter - I never got in to all this in the "old days" as I could never see the attraction of wire-frame "graphics" back then. Microsoft Flight is what got me interested. Saw a copy of "PC Pilot", thought that was  interesting - a whole magazine on flight sims, and it turns out it was the launch issue for MS Flight. Got a copy and played with it a little bit, and then read about FSX so got that. Less impressed but it got me hooked in to the whole "buy some addons, learn some tricks, tart it up" thing.

Then I read a review for P3D (v2) and thought that looked an order of magnitude better, so got that. Well impressed at first. Then got v3, v4 and v5. Somewhere along the line I got XP 10, and found it hard work (and ugly), but by around v4 of P3D I got XP11, and along with Orbx's True Earth and various things like Forkboy's US stuff and Ortho4XP I began to feel like I was getting what I'd always hoped for.

And then I saw the announcement for MSFS. And like a lot of people I couldn't believe my eyes. Pre-sold, to me at least, and off I went to get a new PC built in anticipation. When MSFS was eventually released (earlier than I anticipated - I figured MS would aim for a Dec 31st release at the earliest!) I was in like Flynn, as they used to say.

Since then, I can't use P3D any more. V5 has good things, but the load times are appalling and I can't stomach land-class tiles any more. True Earth looks good in it but it runs too slowly for me and is too jerky and jittery. I haven't deleted it as such, and plan to try a completely clean install at some point, as I have a HUGE hangar of aircraft for that environment. I live in hope that maybe a V6 or 7 might have resolved what I feel are its issues. In which case, as long as my aircraft and True Earth stuff is still compatible, I will happily use it again.

XP 11 is still ok with me. I have got it looking really nice in those regions where I have good scenery, and I have a lot of great aircraft for it. But I don't spend much time in it these days because even in those areas it feels like it's missing something. But, having seen a video somewhere the last couple of days that showed a new lighting engine (for a forthcoming v12 perhaps?) if that comes good then XP will definitely be getting more of my attention, again assuming compatibility with my current hangar and scenery addons.

But the single overwhelming thing about MSFS for me is that it can better the best I can achieve in any of the other sims currently, and it can do it across the whole planet. Ok, there are some areas where it's a bit patchy. I just tried a flight in Armenia yesterday, and it's not the best I've seen in MSFS, but I wouldn't even think about trying there in P3D or XP.

I got my world simulator at last.

I have no desire to gain points or promotions, move up levels in the game, join an online flight community or any of that stuff. I've no great desire to become 'proficient' in my handling of large airliners, helicopters or anything else. I just want to cruise the world, anywhere I want, with a modicum of control and understanding in an aircraft that appeals to me. I'm a mildly grumpy old fort, and am quite happy sitting in my den exploring the world via my pretty well-sorted sim setup.

And for now at least, that means MSFS. And I'm very grateful to MS and Asobo for it.

But like I said, if XP can come up with the goods visually, I'll certainly be back spending more time there in the future.

I like MSFS enormously. But I didn't marry it. Unlike my relationships with people and animals, with a sim - if something better comes along .  .  .

 

[pmb 5,137]

53 minutes ago, andy1252 said:

I'm a big fan of MSFS. As I've said on a few times and in a few places, my main desire has always been a really good looking world simulator, in which we can also fly. 

Very well said, Andy I can pretty much copy all you wrote.

Kind regards, Michael

[Janov 2,383]

1 hour ago, andy1252 said:

if something better comes along

I really liked your postive writeup!

The use case you described is certainly best served by MSFS right now...and if I judge development of X-Plane correctly, will also still be best served by MSFS when XP12 comes out. The true-to-life appearance of realworld features (satellite/photogrammetry) will not be matched by XP12.

[Brandon01110 407]

17 hours ago, himmelhorse said:

The only thing I really really really want now is for MS/Asobo to fix all the current bugs before updating scenery (world updates) and for Hand Tracking in VR.  Now that would be AWESOME

This would be outstanding if it were implemented properly.  It would save people hundreds of dollars not needing all the hardware for switches, ect.  I have all of the saitek panels but its kinda hard to use them with the g2 headset on as I have to go by memory of switch location.

[bean_sprout 1,201]

What will MSFS sales look like after XBOX is released I wonder?  Anyway I need to monitor my purchases with so much good stuff in the works.

Cheers

bs

[HiFlyer 9,360]

I think the abrupt scarcity of flight simulator related peripherals and the concurrent prices also tell some of the story about what's happening out there, apparently set off by the introduction of msfs.

[Ricardo41 5,952]

I think Asobo should do Austin a solid and buy XPlane's assets and incorporate the good stuff into MSFS.

[tweekz 2,165]

1 hour ago, Ricardo41 said:

I think Asobo should do Austin a solid and buy XPlane's assets and incorporate the good stuff into MSFS.

I've made that joke myself in the past, when I criticized some aspects of the flight model. But honestly, it's better how it is. They'll push each other like that.

And when I look at it right now, I feel their flight model is - if at all - not behind XPs. The underlying technology is very good - potentially even more accurate. What makes it worse sometimes, is the inexperience in real aviation. They have to learn how to optimize things the hard way. The formulas are there, now they need to add the sauce.

Edited June 5, 2021 by tweekz

[bean_sprout 1,201]

3 hours ago, Ricardo41 said:

I think Asobo should do Austin a solid and buy XPlane's assets and incorporate the good stuff into MSFS.

It wouldn't be the first time - I know this from a firsthand experience.

But then I've been a Microsoft backer since the OS wars.  In return they gave me my livelihood.

Cheers

bs

Edited June 5, 2021 by bean_sprout

[Bobsk8 12,735]

3 hours ago, tweekz said:

I've made that joke myself in the past, when I criticized some aspects of the flight model. But honestly, it's better how it is. They'll push each other like that.

And when I look at it right now, I feel their flight model is - if at all - not behind XPs. The underlying technology is very good - potentially even more accurate. What makes it worse sometimes, is the inexperience in real aviation. They have to learn how to optimize things the hard way. The formulas are there, now they need to add the sauce.

Yes, Austin has haze everywhere perfected.