This is a solution to a problem nobody has , even my wife can drive a car😉

On 1/11/2023 at 4:27 PM, birdguy said:

I can't wait for robo-dentists.

Noel

The Cyberdental Systems model D-101 says...

Your tartar has been terminated. 

 

😁😁😁

Martin, I know you have undying faith in Elon Musk (who just made the Guiness Book of Records for losing more of his fortune than anyone in history); electric cars (I have yet to see one); and SpaceX and the colonization of Mars (not in my lifetime).

I'm very comfortable with the car I have now and driving it myself.  I don't need no steenking automation.  I'm not as good a driver now as I used to be but I still enjoy getting into my car, starting it, backing out of my carport and looking both ways before pulling out into the street, stopping at the stop sign at the end of my block and looking both ways before pulling out into the street, stepping on the accelerator and merging into traffic, and even parking when I get to my destination.  I neither need nor want an automated chauffer.  There are still things I like to do myself.

I'm not yet ready to live in a world where an alarm gently wakes me up, going into the bathroom where the shower is already running at the correct temperature and sprays me with my favorite body wash, having a computer select my clothes and laying them out for me when I get out of the shower, sitting down at the table with a ready-made breakfast waiting for me, then going into the living room with the television already playing my selected program, then getting into my driverless car to take me to work where I sit in front of a computer until lunch time and eating the lunch the automated cafeteria has selected for me.

Not for me.  Not now.  Not tomorrow.  Not ever.

Noel...the Luddite.

Edited January 14, 20233 yr by birdguy

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

Martin, I know you have undying faith in Elon Musk (who just made the Guiness Book of Records for losing more of his fortune than anyone in history); electric cars (I have yet to see one); and SpaceX and the colonization of Mars (not in my lifetime).

 

No I don't have undying faith in Elon Musk, although I understand that you would want to push that narrative because it  supports your anti-Elon agenda. As we have discussed a number of times via PM, there are things about him I dislike (I wish you'd remember that). And no, he's not perfect, he gets things wrong, underestimating the difficulty of autonomous vehicles, he admits, was one of them. This topic is not about Elon Musk's attempt to create the spaceship required for a Mars colony (we have done that debate before and you know my opinion)  and nobody has said a Mars colony will be in your lifetime.

Autonomous cars are something that is being pursued by numerous entities, not just Musk.

As for Musk's "loss of fortune" Its Tesla stock that has dropped due to fears about inflation and investor jitters. But overall Tesla still remains the most valuable car brand in 2022. More than double second place Toyota's brand value in 2022. With the Model Y the best selling car in Europe in December (and other months) despite its high price. But this is nothing to do with autonomous cars so let's not elaborate on that.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/267830/brand-values-of-the-top-10-most-valuable-car-brands/

 

 

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I don't need no steenking automation. 

 

Not relevant, you won't get one.

 

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

I'm not yet ready to live in a world where an alarm gently wakes me up, going into the bathroom where the shower is already running at the correct temperature and sprays me with my favorite body wash, having a computer select my clothes and laying them out for me when I get out of the shower, sitting down at the table with a ready-made breakfast waiting for me, then going into the living room with the television already playing my selected program, then getting into my driverless car to take me to work where I sit in front of a computer until lunch time and eating the lunch the automated cafeteria has selected for me

 

You don't have to be ready for the extreme automated scenario you mention, the scenario you mention is not happening any time soon. And as debated before, even in a world where much more automation is available, "doing it yourself" will likely be feasible.

Edited January 14, 20233 yr by martin-w

46 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Autonomous cars are something that is being pursued by numerous entities, not just Musk.

I agree with you vis-a-vis Elon Musk.  He's a very successful visionary genius and I wish there were more people like him.  I think a lot of people criticize him because they're jealous and/or they don't like his ideology.

Anyway, why do you think driverless vehicles are being developed?  Is it just for the sake of making cars that don't need a driver, sort of a "hey, let's see if we can do it" kind of thing, or is there some other reason?

Dave

2 hours ago, martin-w said:

even in a world where much more automation is available, "doing it yourself" will likely be feasible.

Not in the coming 'risk free' society where they fear you might hurt yourself doing it yourself.

I foresee people not being allowed to engage in sports anymore because it is too dangerous.  We will still sports teams like football, baseball, basketball and soccer but the players will be robots.  The actual players will be in the press box with Gameboy controllers.

Noel

55 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

Anyway, why do you think driverless vehicles are being developed?  Is it just for the sake of making cars that don't need a driver, sort of a "hey, let's see if we can do it" kind of thing, or is there some other reason?

Some companies, such as Uber, are in it to eventually provide taxi and similar services without having to pay drivers. I think the larger group, though, is a mix of the ones that want to make driving safer combined with those who want to see what we can do with the technology we have and are developing.

As Noel's link shows, there are over 35,000 deaths each year on the road due to human error, which I find an interesting contrast to all of the people saying they would never get in an automated car. Are you fine with that many people dying in preventable accidents? Shouldn't we try to do better? Is there a better and more practical solution?

At some point I do expect automated cars will become better than most people at driving (note I said better, not perfect). Far too many people I see on the road don't actually seem to care about operating the many thousand pound vehicle they're sitting in, and are far more interested in their phone, kids, eating, putting on make-up or something else that isn't driving. I do think most people see driving as a tool and don't really care about the experience (see the numbers of new automatic vs manual vehicles in North America, for example). When it comes to driving in the city, and rush hour in particular, I would be quite happy to let the car do it. I can see a mix where driving on major highways, freeways and more congested areas in cities will require at least some level of automation, while smaller highways, country roads and less congested areas would allow manual driving.

The major flaw I see with the current attempts at automation is that they are trying to replace the driver with a completely self contained system (other than GPS signals). I think for it to really work it is going to require sharing information between vehicles, as well as having more input from sensors along, and in, the roads. This would be even more critical for things like winter driving as things like lane markings can be completely obscured (visual lane keeping doesn't work), three lane roads effectively become two lanes due to snow piled up along the sides, and road conditions can change drastically in short distances with very little indication (wet and icy roads can look identical).

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

I think a lot of people criticize him because they're jealous and/or they don't like his ideology.

Not jealous, Dave, I don't like his personality or attention seeking.  If I were to be jealous of any billionaire it would be Bill Gates who works quietly behind the scenes and is a philanthropist.

Noel

5 minutes ago, goates said:

Are you fine with that many people dying in preventable accidents?

More comfortable with that than the 45,222 gun related deaths each year.  Or war casualties.  Swimmers drown.  Rock climbers fall to their deaths.  Recreational pilots crash and burn.  Overeaters get fat and die of a multitude of ailments before their time.

How far do we go in trying to create a risk free environment?

Noel

Not now - not ever...

https://theintercept.com/2023/01/10/tesla-crash-footage-autopilot/

Noel

No

 

.....But to qualify that remark there are a great many idiots who think they acan drive out there I would also never get in a vehicle with

19 hours ago, dave2013 said:

I agree with you vis-a-vis Elon Musk.  He's a very successful visionary genius and I wish there were more people like him.  I think a lot of people criticize him because they're jealous and/or they don't like his ideology.

 

Dave

 

I don't personally think Elon is a genius. I can't recall any concept he's invented himself. The Hyperloop is a concept that's been around for a very long time, right back to 1799, and then the vactrain in 1904. I wrote about a hyperloop in a science fiction novel I was writing 30 years ago.

He obviously didn't come up with the concept of electric cars either. Electric car taxis were common on New York streets in 1897 and people loved them. They even had the capability to drive into a garage and have the entire battery pack replaced with a fully charged one. Fossil fuel ICE cars later dominated of course.  

Solar roof tiles was a concept by a company Elon bought and battery backup for solar power wasn't his concept either. Reusable space vehicles also wasn't his idea, in fact the original design for the Space Shuttle was full reusability. But then the military insisted that it be large enough to carry their huge spy satellites so we ended up with only partial reusability.

I see Elon Musk's real talent as an ability to recognize a need, and then get the job done, get the concept built, bring it to fruition no matter what it takes, risking bankruptcy and his own health in the process. The first Falcon rockets were a hairs breadth away from complete failure, SpaceX were literally one launch away from bankruptcy. Musk found the funding for one last attempt and it was successful, 11 years later we have SpaceX, the biggest private space company on the planet.

He is an Asperger's sufferer of course and obsessional traits are common with the condition. I see him as imperfect but somebody the world needs at this juncture. 

 

Quote

Anyway, why do you think driverless vehicles are being developed?  Is it just for the sake of making cars that don't need a driver, sort of a "hey, let's see if we can do it" kind of thing, or is there some other reason?

 

I cant speak for the other companies but in Musk's case it dates back to when the Model S was first on the road. Somebody fell asleep at the wheel and killed a cyclist. Musk thought that if there had been an autonomous mode that could have taken over, a life could have been saved, so he decided that an autonomous mode should be available for his cars.  

 

18 hours ago, goates said:

As Noel's link shows, there are over 35,000 deaths each year on the road due to human error, which I find an interesting contrast to all of the people saying they would never get in an automated car. Are you fine with that many people dying in preventable accidents? Shouldn't we try to do better? Is there a better and more practical solution?

 

Yes exactly. Its utter carnage on the roads. I'm sorry to have to say this, and I may be chastised, but 75% of human beings are pretty dumb and certainly lack common sense and obviously  on the road too.

That being said, all human beings are fallible, we all make mistakes. Even the most proficient, skillful drivers are fallible and mess up from time to time. We have all done it on the road. As we've both mentioned before, "City Safe" (Mazda call it that) automatic breaking is something that you and me both praise and its got us out of trouble. So for me, a vehicle you can drive manually, safe in the knowledge that if you have a brain fart and do something stupid it saves your life, is a very positive and inevitable, technological innovation.  

 

18 hours ago, goates said:

The major flaw I see with the current attempts at automation is that they are trying to replace the driver with a completely self contained system (other than GPS signals). I think for it to really work it is going to require sharing information between vehicles, as well as having more input from sensors along, and in, the roads. This would be even more critical for things like winter driving as things like lane markings can be completely obscured (visual lane keeping doesn't work), three lane roads effectively become two lanes due to snow piled up along the sides, and road conditions can change drastically in short distances with very little indication (wet and icy roads can look identical).

 

That would certainly be the ultimate. Advanced AI autonomous control combined with data sharing from all vehicles in the vicinity. 

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

I don't personally think Elon is a genius. I can't recall any concept he's invented himself. The Hyperloop is a concept that's been around for a very long time, right back to 1799, and then the vactrain in 1904. I wrote about a hyperloop in a science fiction novel I was writing 30 years ago.

I think you have to be a genius to create companies like Tesla and SpaceX, not to mention achieve a net worth of almost 200 billion dollars.

Were your sci-fi novels published? 

Dave