The obvious question will be, once all the humans are fired and replaced, who's actually gonna be able and willing to buy the stuff being produced?

And if nobody can buy it, why is it being produced, and where is the profit that in turn makes factories full of busily working robots desirable to anyone, including the super-rich?

1 hour ago, G-RFRY said:

Samsung plans to eliminate humans from its chip fabs by 2030 — push for full automation continues at full steam: Report | Tom's Hardware (tomshardware.com)

Is this a valid comment posted with the article?

“I've worked in two different fabs now. I've worked in depth on and with every type of etch tool from all the major manufacturers and am currently a yield technician. All I can say is "lol, that's really cute". Typical upper management not knowing at all how the sausage is made in a everyday nuts and bolts sort of way. This is entirely unrealistic, and assuming it is implemented, what do you do when the sensors inevitably have some kind of failure and don't report it to the controlling system, because the failure happens in a central part of that software infrastructure? I shudder to think of it.”

14 hours ago, charliearon said:

Yeah, I was waiting on that comeback! 26 years with Harris/Lanier, Harris/3m, Lanier World wide, and finally the buyout by Ricoh America.  Happily retired for 13 years!  😀

Yeah, I worked for 3M in their business division.  Left teaching after 10 years and started working for a large corporation.  Sold Toshiba, Kyocera, Ricoh, Samsung, HP, Lexmark, and others. It was a very rewarding sales profession (not for the meek) and eventually I owned a Toshiba dealership.  Sold my business about 7 years ago and happily retired as well.

 

1 hour ago, HiFlyer said:

The obvious question will be, once all the humans are fired and replaced, who's actually gonna be able and willing to buy the stuff being produced?

The simple answer is that less stuff will be produced.  I'm not saying that a majority of the population will be unemployed; probably more like 30%, and these people will be taken care of more or less, with strings attached, of course.

However, *everyone*, apart from the 10% of "elites" and "betters", will be living under the neo-feudal system.

1 hour ago, dmwalker said:

This is entirely unrealistic, and assuming it is implemented, what do you do when the sensors inevitably have some kind of failure and don't report it to the controlling system, because the failure happens in a central part of that software infrastructure?

You're right that you cannot automate 100% of manufacturing processes.  Like I said, there will still be human technicians, programmers, and engineers, and of course, the management class, but factories with hundreds of workers will be a thing of the past.  The question is: what will all those less-skilled workers do?

Dave

24 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

The question is: what will all those less-skilled workers do?

Viva la revolución! 

1 hour ago, HiFlyer said:

Viva la revolución! 

LOL.  You may just be right.

Let's hope not.

Dave

When I was taught electronics in the Air Force it was all resistors, capacitors, inductors, a few feet of wire and vacuum tubes.  By the time I got out and began working in civilian jobs it was a few resistors and capacitors and a lot of integrated circuits on a printed or wire-wrapped circuit board.  I learned how use them and design with them and became a development engineer.  Today it's completely different with a single microprocessor doing what I did with a couple circuit boards full of component parts.  I would hand a schematic I had drawn to a wirewrap girl and she would hand me a board the next day to check out.  What happened to all the assembly girls? We move forward with the times and technology.

Remember the early computers with miles of wire connecting a series of six foot 'closets'?  They were built by people stringing wire and plugging in tubes.  They were maintained by a group of technicians.  Today they are desktops and laptops at least partially built by robots and maintained by a coupe of IT guys in the company.

I grew up in house with a four party telephone line.  When I was in Korea I made Christmas call to my folks in California.  It cost me 15 dollars and lasted 3 minutes.  Now an iPhone is carried in your hip pocket and is almost a part of your anatomy and connects you to the world 24/7.  What happened to all those telephone operators?

When I got my first car one weekend a month I went to the auto parts store, bought new points and a condenser and a carburetor kit and with nothing more than a timing light I tuned up my own engine.  Today I open the hood and wonder where the engine is.  What happened to all those tuneup mechanics?

Progress is like a river.  It flows smoothly for a distance and then hits short stretch of rapids before smoothing out again.

Sometimes when I read Dave's posts of pessimism I should be glad I'm in the twilight of my life instead of wishing I were in the dawn of it again.  But I'm not.  I'm not a bit sorry for the life I led and the thing's I did and saw but a bit disappointed that there are a lot of new things I'll never see.

Noel

 

Edited January 21, 20242 yr by birdguy

2 hours ago, birdguy said:

Sometimes when I read Dave's posts of pessimism I should be glad I'm in the twilight of my life instead of wishing I were in the dawn of it again.

Not all my posts are pessimistic, but yes, many are.  In this particular case I was wondering, as many are, what millions of lower-skilled workers, like factory workers, fast food restaurant workers, cashiers, warehouse workers, etc., will do once their jobs are replaced by robots.

I also want people to know that there are indeed wealthy and powerful groups who have a plan for the proletariat, and we are watching parts of it being implemented as we speak.  It is not a favorable plan for most of us, and so we should resist its implementation.

I am somewhat optimistic that people are finally starting to wake up and see what's happening.  Once they are aware, they can make their own plans and successfully resist those who wish to dominate and rule over them without their consent.

It's not all bad.  I'm enjoying the Internet, computers, smartphones, and gaming software that would have been science fiction just 30 years ago.

Dave

Edited January 21, 20242 yr by dave2013

List of obsolete occupations:

Quote

A      Alchemist     Alewife (trade)     Amtmann     Arendator     Arrephoros     Ash burner  B      Baby farming     Badger (occupation)     Beamer (occupation)     Bear-leader (guide)     Bematist     Between maid     Bobbin boy     Bombardier (aircrew)     Book peddler     Breaker boy     Broomsquire     Bullocky     Burlak     Byfoged  C      Cabin boy     Castrato     Cavalry     Chapman (occupation)     Charcoal burner     Chasqui     Chop-church     Cigarette girl     City guard     Coachman     Coffee sniffers     Colportage     Computer (occupation)     Cornjerker     Court dwarf     Crossing sweeper     Cuirassier     Cup-bearer  D      Dahomey Amazons     Deal porter     Demon hunter     Doffer     Dog whipper     Donkey puncher     Dragoon     Drummer (military)     Drysalter     Dyachok     Diak (clerk)  E      Elevator operator     Engagé     Exilarch     Expressman  F      Fangshi     Fendersmith     Fifer     Fogd     Footman     Francs-tireurs     Freischar  G      Galley slave     Gandy dancer     Garden hermit     Gaucho     Glimmer man     Gong farmer     Groom of the Stool     Grubber     Gungnyeo  H      Hall boy     Harquebusier     Heavy infantry     Herb Strewer     Hetaira     Hippeis     Hoplite     Hurrying  I      Ice cutting     Iceman (occupation)     Impi     Instigator Regni     Investigating censor  K      Kenin (Japanese history)     Khapper     Kira (title)     Knocker-up     Kondei     Konungsåren  L      Lady's companion     Lamp trimmer     Lamplighter     Law-writer     Leech collector     Limner     Line infantry     Link-boy     Lirnyk     Louse-feeder  M      Månglare     Marchand-mercier     Master of the Buckhounds     Matagi     Mounted infantry     Mud clerk     Mudlark     Mule scavenger     Münzmeister     Mursmäcka  N      Naemyeongbu     Ninja     Nursemaid  P      Packetman     Packetmen     Paedagogus (occupation)     Panageis     Peddler     Pevchy dyak     Pinsetter     Podyachy     Pornai     Portreeve     Poundmaster     Powder monkey     Priest hunter     Printer's devil     Privateer     Pullman porter     Punkah wallah  R      Ragpicker     Reeve (England)     Resident minister     Resin worker     Retinue     Rhapsode     Rower woman     Runemaster     Rynda  S      Samurai     Sandal-bearer     Sanggung     Scribe     Scrivener     Scullery maid     Scutelnic     Seneschal     Shotgun messenger     Situ (office)     Skomorokh     Slave catcher     Slave catcher (Brazil)     Sluggard waker     Soda jerk     Sōhei     Spearman (military)     Stavilac     Stenographer     Still room maid     Sugar-baker     Switchboard operator  T      Taffeltäckare     Tawaif     Teamster     Telegraphist     Thief-taker     Toad doctors     Tondenhei     Tosher     Town crier     Troubadour     Tselovalnik  U      Uinyeo     Umalohokan     Useful man  V      Vampire hunter     Veintiquatro     Vivandière     Voltigeur  W      Wainwright (occupation)     Water carrier     Wheelwright     Whipping boy  Y      Yiji

Not forgetting:

Quote

Leech collector, Linotype operator, Scissors grinder, Ice cutter, Food taster, Phrenologist, Moirologist, Billy-boy, Sea sponge harvester, etc...

 

Technology has *always* made jobs redundant. And yet, there's always been new jobs that have been created. Who could have predicted Mobile Banking app engineer, Wind turbine service technician or Genetic counsellor being commonplace roles even as late as the 1980s?

I'm not worried as a lot of the vocal pessimists are the "let's smash the current socio-economic model", "everything is crashing because of late-stage capitalism", "we need UBI (universal basic income) for everyone, everywhere" revoluntionary socialist types, who have their own agenda for presenting such a dire view of the future.

At the end of my working years, unless there's either a Third World War or cultural Marxism becomes widespread and the failed attempts at the utopian view of Communism are repeated, the jobs humans will perform in the 2050s are going to look very different from current ones and will generally be accepted to be better.

You're not looking at the whole picture Dave.  As old jobs vanish as obsolete or taken by robots new 'people' jobs emerge.  Here's an excellent article on that.

https://hbr.org/2021/03/why-robots-wont-steal-your-job

Not mentioned are PARTS of jobs that may be taken over by robots but the people job is expanded to do things the robots haven't been trained for.  Robot assist makes a people job more productive.

I never to college myself, but when I was volunteering at the wildlife refuge I often told college students who working out there during the summer to pay off their student loans to pick a minor in a saleable job or skill they might want in the future.  My reasoning then was if you get tired of what you are doing you have enough education is something else to switch careers.

One of the reasons I stayed in the Air Force as a career was because of all the opportunities I had for retraining if I got tired of doing what I was doing.  As a result I was an aircraft armament technician, and electronic technician, a seismic technician, and a weather forecaster over the span of that career. 

Also, never stand still.  The other thing I would tell them was your degree gets you in the door.  Demonstrated ability gets you ahead.  I doubt many people in the workplace to look ahead to that time a robot takes their place and have planned for that by enhancing and upgrading their skills will have much to worry about.

The world is constantly changing.  It always has been.  Workers have got to look ahead and adapt to the changes.  As I mentioned in me previous post I started my career with vacuum tube technology and ended it with solid state technology.  It wasn't that hard.  Remember, education doesn't stop with graduation in whatever field you are in.

Noel

Edited January 21, 20242 yr by birdguy

25 minutes ago, F737MAX said:

List of obsolete occupations:

Also "saggarmaker's bottom knocker". It's real and it was featured on the UK version of "What's my Line?" years ago. Of course, nobody guessed it.

I'm not trying to be all gloom and doom, just expressing concern and asking a question.

However, I think that this time is different.

People bring up the major technological changes in the early 20th century and how people adapted and got different, newer jobs.  An often cited example is the horse whip makers who went out of business with the advent of the automobile.  Let's take that example of the horse drawn carriage and automobile: all those carriage makers and repairmen and whip makers who lost their jobs were able to go and work at the factories which employed millions of people.  That won't be the case this time because there cannot and will not be millions of job openings for coders, techs, and engineers.

Here's some employment numbers by industry in the USA:

Manufacturing - 13 million

Wholesale trade and retail trade - 21 million

Transportation and warehousing - 7 million

Total Easily Replaceable Jobs - 41 million

I left out everything else like financial, healthcare, information and business services, other services, education, leisure and hospitality, agriculture, and government as most of those jobs will be done by humans, although some of these will also be replaced by machines and software. The number employed in all these sectors combined is 110 million.  The number of self-employed is 9 million.

Total Not Easily Replaceable Jobs - 119 million

So, I'll make some conservative assumptions that over the next 50 years, half of the easily replaceable jobs will be replaced by machines, and 10% of the not easily replaceable jobs will be replaced by machines and software for a grand total of:

***32 million jobs***

I challenge anyone to come up with replacement jobs for 32 million people.

Yes, over the next 50 years(a conservative estimate, could be sooner) things will change and maybe new industries will arise which will employ millions of people, I'm doubtful it will be enough.  Maybe population will begin to decline and that will help.

Dave

 

35 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

Maybe population will begin to decline and that will help.

Dave

"Japan's population began declining in the 1970s and lost more than 3 million people between 2011 and 2021.

China is forecast to lose almost half of its people by 2100, plunging from more than 1.4 billion to 771 million inhabitants.

India's population will decline beginning in 2047 and fall to 1 billion people by 2100.

Russia, Germany, South Korea and Spain are all set to join this downward movement, with their populations beginning to decline by 2030.

Europe's population as a whole would begin to decline as early as this decade.

However, the African continent will increase from 1.4 to 3.9 billion inhabitants by 2100. Some 38 per cent of the world's population would then live in Africa, compared to around 18 per cent today.

The U.S. population is projected to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080 before edging downward to 366 million in 2100."

Edited January 22, 20242 yr by dmwalker

4 hours ago, dmwalker said:

Also "saggarmaker's bottom knocker". It's real and it was featured on the UK version of "What's my Line?" years ago. Of course, nobody guessed it.

How about a coal sacker, a coke stoker, or a sock tucker? Any of those still around?

EDIT: I was curious enough to do a "google dive" and enjoyed a few minutes listening to the "sagarrmaker's bottom knocker" song (and also just what it meant! 🤪

Edited January 22, 20242 yr by n4gix

The solution to the problem is so simple I'm surprised nobody has thought of it yet.

Remover all the women from the work force so they can stay at home, raise children, clean the house, do the laundry and ironing, shop for groceries and cook meals.

It worked in the past.  It should work in the brave new world of robots.

Noel

Edited January 22, 20242 yr by birdguy