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Guest 56th_Angel_Dust

Continental crash upstate New York

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Just listened to the audio recording of ATC from this incident. There do appear to be one or two things of note, although nothing dramatically so. Aircraft on the same ATC frequency are reporting rime ice accretions down through to about 2,300 feet on the approach to 23, which is the runway Colgan 3407 was intercepting the localiser for when contact was lost. One aircraft subsequently reports a minor fluctuation in the ILS localiser to that same runway at 1,500 feet, but the crew of Colgan 3407 do not seem troubled by anything of that nature judging by the ATC conversation, and a localiser deviation would only put it off the centerline of course, and not into the terrain. There have also been reports of someone on the ground seeing Colgan 3407 with an engine on fire, but it seems doubtful to me in view of the lack of anything out of the ordinary on ATC.At this point it's obviously going to be mostly speculation as to the cause of the accident, although clearly some sort of icing incident would be the obvious first avenue of investigation, so the flight data recorder, if it survived the impact, is likely to provide the best source of information for the NTSB. Icing is of course a big problem at this time of year and more so for regional aircraft than for the heavies; regional types spend a good deal more time in the flight regime where picking up ice is most likely.I just hope it is not a repeat of a couple of known problems which relate to that, and which are prevalent on regional types because of the altitudes they fly at. Namely, the aircraft picking up ice on the tailplane, which goes unnoticed by the crew while they fly on autopilot, which compensates for it; then, when they come off autopilot for the approach, the stick pushes forward rapidly and is jammed in that position by the ice, thus cannot be pulled back by the crew to recover the aircraft. NASA have done a lot of research on this incidentally and there are quite a few warnings and educational videos provided by them for regional aircraft aircrews, so one would hope this is not the cause, but clearly it will be something the NTSB people will consider. Another icing problem which might also be considered is one similar to the cause of the notorious American Eagle ATR-72 crash, Flight 4148, which flew through supercooled rain and picked up ice accretions sufficient to overcome the de-icing boot capabilities of the aircraft, causing it to depart from controlled flight.Whatever the cause, like all air crashes it is very sad indeed, and we can only hope that in some way it leads to a better understanding of things, and greater safety in future. Condolences to the victim's families.

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This ability to click on a link and hear the ATC tapes for an accident that just happend is new to me (I've been flying since 1974). I wasn't prepared for the sadness and grief I felt when I listened. God knows I've had moments of real concern watching the ice build up on my unprotected wing when I flew AF aeroclub Pipers, and still I get anxious when we have to use the boots on the Chancellor. I've read many a transcript of the tapes in AW&ST for years, but this ability to listen so close to event makes it seem much more personal, and powerful. I presume they were too occupied to check in with tower, by then they had a problem and they were doing first thing first (fly the airplane). Thanks for giving me a place to share this. Very sad.

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I just hope it is not a repeat of a couple of known problems which relate to that, and which are prevalent on regional types because of the altitudes they fly at. Namely, the aircraft picking up ice on the tailplane, which goes unnoticed by the crew while they fly on autopilot, which compensates for it; then, when they come off autopilot for the approach, the stick pushes forward rapidly and is jammed in that position by the ice, thus cannot be pulled back by the crew to recover the aircraft. NASA have done a lot of research on this incidentally and there are quite a few warnings and educational videos provided by them for regional aircraft aircrews, so one would hope this is not the cause, but clearly it will be something the NTSB people will consider.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2238323060735779946scott s..

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No one really knows, as eyewitness reports in so many situations are worth nothing. It was likely snowing and the other aircraft flying through the same spot reported ice and IMC. I wouldn't put any stock in an eyewitness in the dark with this WX. I will wait until some actual data from NTSB sources come out to see why it might have happened. Whatever it was happened quick, as nothing on the ATC tapes sounds stressful when Rebecca Shaw, the FO radioed her last message to maintain 2300 feet until LOC intercept and subsequent handoff to 120.5 (tower).I've read the Dash 8 usually plows right through icing like nothing. It's a sad day, and yes Dan, hearing her voice makes the ATC tape even more depressing. My condolences are with all the families who lost loved ones as a result. The captain, Marvin Renslow has two children, and the FO, Rebecca Shaw (only 24), was married just two years ago.I used Google Earth to locate KLUMP (LOM for ILS 23) and found the address of the house that was hit and marked them. Here is a screen capture of the two locations:colgan01qy3.jpgHere is a picture of Rebecca Shaw, taken from here http://www.komonews.com/news/39561867.htmlrebeccashawza8.jpg

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Wow after watching that nasa video and listening to all the reports it sound like this is exactly what happened. My thoughts and prayers to the FamiliesGaryPS anyway to mimic it in FSX?

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My condolences go out to all families of this incident. I also pray that people in the neighborhood will recover fast. This is a very sad accident.Does anyone know if wing/horizontal stabilizer anti-ice was on (if the Q300 has it) before entering in the ice storm? Although I don't like to ask questions in times like this, I can't help my curiosity.

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My condolences go out to all families of this incident. I also pray that people in the neighborhood will recover fast. This is a very sad accident.Does anyone know if wing/horizontal stabilizer anti-ice was on (if the Q300 has it) before entering in the ice storm? Although I don't like to ask questions in times like this, I can't help my curiosity.
Actually this was a Q400 and had only been in service since April of 2008. Here is a link to FlightAware's page regarding Colgan Flight 3407:http://flightaware.com/news/article/Colgan...use--50-dead/95The bottom link takes you to the Airliners.net picture of the actual plane.As far as anti-ice/de-ice goes, there's no way for anyone to know if or when the crew turned those systems on. We'll have to wait for the FDR/CVR data to find out what they were doing and if they even responded to a problem before going down. From the initial reports, TRACON didn't seem to have any real PIREP info of icing and it wasn't until after 3407 went missing that the controller asked for WX conditions from pilots in the immediate area.Readings I've seen suggest both pilots were professional and capable at their job. The FO, albeit young, was even a CFI at one time. The captain had flown SAABs prior to the Dash 8 I guess. Whether it was tail icing or what, if that was the problem, their altitude was low for upset recovery. We just need to wait.

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As far as anti-ice/de-ice goes, there's no way for anyone to know if or when the crew turned those systems on. We'll have to wait for the FDR/CVR data to find out what they were doing and if they even responded to a problem before going down.
Actually earlier today CNN broadcast the NTSB press conference and the NTSB official stated that they had already performed a quick review of the flight data recorder and it showed that the anti-ice system had been on for some time but he did state that did not confirm if the system was working. The flight data recorder only recorded that the switch was on. He also stated that the crew remarked about ice on the windshield and wings several minutes before the crash.Todd

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Actually earlier today CNN broadcast the NTSB press conference and the NTSB official stated that they had already performed a quick review of the flight data recorder and it showed that the anti-ice system had been on for some time but he did state that did not confirm if the system was working. The flight data recorder only recorded that the switch was on. He also stated that the crew remarked about ice on the windshield and wings several minutes before the crash.Todd
I'm surprised this was released so soon after. Usually they don't reveal much if anything until all data is collected. I would expect anti-ice to be on though, but as I said, we won't know a real cause until down the road.It does sound as though they were downed as a result of ice though. They might not have been aggressive enough in preventing ice build up and/or removing any ice accretion. I know ice is hard to remove though and you gotta be on the ball when encountering it. The description of severe pitch and roll movements seems to suggest that selecting flaps 15 disrupted the air flow and a loss of lift occurred. It's possible that they were on autopilot which in a lot of icing conditions is poor practice because you can't feel the control surfaces changing response. Those videos posted regarding icing described all this stuff and it certainly fits this scenario. And I said I wouldn't speculate. :(

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I'm surprised this was released so soon after. Usually they don't reveal much if anything until all data is collected. I would expect anti-ice to be on though, but as I said, we won't know a real cause until down the road.It does sound as though they were downed as a result of ice though. They might not have been aggressive enough in preventing ice build up and/or removing any ice accretion. I know ice is hard to remove though and you gotta be on the ball when encountering it. The description of severe pitch and roll movements seems to suggest that selecting flaps 15 disrupted the air flow and a loss of lift occurred. It's possible that they were on autopilot which in a lot of icing conditions is poor practice because you can't feel the control surfaces changing response. Those videos posted regarding icing described all this stuff and it certainly fits this scenario. And I said I wouldn't speculate. :(
Or is it possible the Pitot Tube was iced and they thought they were going faster then they were, and when they dropped the flaps and gear they dropped below stall speed, and was unable to recover?

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Or is it possible the Pitot Tube was iced and they thought they were going faster then they were, and when they dropped the flaps and gear they dropped below stall speed, and was unable to recover?
From all reports it sounds like classic icing-possibly tail plane.One of the things at least I have been taught-is lowering the gear and flaps in that condition can cause the problem to suddenly get bad. The fact (at least reported) that they put the gear and flaps back up leads me to believe this was in fact the situation.Also-isn't this plane booted? My plane -though not certified known ice (cause I don't have an electric windshield) is booted.The boots do the job-sorta, sometimes, and with particular ice types. Don't do so well in clear ice where the whole airframe can get covered.The only time I have ever had clear ice was on the north side of the great lakes (erie in my case) where supercooled water droplets can form-and very fast-in seconds! Could be they ran into some of that being just on the other side of Lake Ontario.

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From all reports it sounds like classic icing-possibly tail plane.One of the things at least I have been taught-is lowering the gear and flaps in that condition can cause the problem to suddenly get bad. The fact (at least reported) that they put the gear and flaps back up leads me to believe this was in fact the situation.Also-isn't this plane booted? My plane -though not certified known ice (cause I don't have an electric windshield) is booted.The boots do the job-sorta, sometimes, and with particular ice types. Don't do so well in clear ice where the whole airframe can get covered.The only time I have ever had clear ice was on the north side of the great lakes (erie in my case) where supercooled water droplets can form-and very fast-in seconds! Could be they ran into some of that being just on the other side of Lake Ontario.
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_y...15115506AAHPQ6GPretty interesting response, and talks about some of the things you mentioned. I think this guy may be right. If the autopilot was disengaged with icing, it would be very hard to control with extreme trim. I also heard today that the NTSB found that the plane dropped straight down (complete stall) and lost more than 800 FT in 5 seconds. Sounds to me like flaps and gear caused the pitch of the plane to change, resulting in high angle of attack, because during approach, planes are very low speeds. The wings must have stalled and I'm guessing the tail did too with all this talk about icing on the horizontal stabilizer.Although I do not like to make bad speculations, maybe the pilots were not aggressive enough on preventing ice, or maybe the engaged it too late. I guess we will have to wait and see though to get the right answer though, because there are many different factors including the possibility of a failure of the anti-ice system.

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http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_y...15115506AAHPQ6GPretty interesting response, and talks about some of the things you mentioned. I think this guy may be right. If the autopilot was disengaged with icing, it would be very hard to control with extreme trim. I also heard today that the NTSB found that the plane dropped straight down (complete stall) and lost more than 800 FT in 5 seconds. Sounds to me like flaps and gear caused the pitch of the plane to change, resulting in high angle of attack, because during approach, planes are very low speeds. The wings must have stalled and I'm guessing the tail did too with all this talk about icing on the horizontal stabilizer.Although I do not like to make bad speculations, maybe the pilots were not aggressive enough on preventing ice, or maybe the engaged it too late. I guess we will have to wait and see though to get the right answer though, because there are many different factors including the possibility of a failure of the anti-ice system.
The trouble with tail ice is it is hard to detect and by the time you know you have it it may be too late.Boots though they can be effective are not the same type of protection you get with a hot wing.My first flying teacher had a case of tail ice before it was much known. He came in for the ils-main wings looked ok-again a booted aircraft-dropped the gear and flaps and he said next thing he knew he was looking straight at the ground. Some how he got it under control just about when he touched the ground. He thought he was a gonner.Here is some good info:http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2238323060735779946

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Tail icing doesn't explain the initial 31* pitch up before the 45* pitch down.Tail icing would result in strictly a nose-down movement.

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Tail icing doesn't explain the initial 31* pitch up before the 45* pitch down.Tail icing would result in strictly a nose-down movement.
Seems like they are blaming the pilots for having the AP on in icing conditions. Listening to other aircraft that night, it seems some of them was also using the AP. One even told the tower he was going to do an autoland!

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Tail icing doesn't explain the initial 31* pitch up before the 45* pitch down.Tail icing would result in strictly a nose-down movement.
The downward force of the horizontal stab would be degraded by the ice. Thus, the plane which I believe was reported on autopilot would trim more nose up . When the F/O selected landing flaps the autopilot could not retrim the plane quickly enough to keep the plane level, thus explaining the 31 degree pitch up?

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http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_y...15115506AAHPQ6GPretty interesting response, and talks about some of the things you mentioned. I think this guy may be right. If the autopilot was disengaged with icing, it would be very hard to control with extreme trim. I also heard today that the NTSB found that the plane dropped straight down (complete stall) and lost more than 800 FT in 5 seconds. Sounds to me like flaps and gear caused the pitch of the plane to change, resulting in high angle of attack, because during approach, planes are very low speeds. The wings must have stalled and I'm guessing the tail did too with all this talk about icing on the horizontal stabilizer.Although I do not like to make bad speculations, maybe the pilots were not aggressive enough on preventing ice, or maybe the engaged it too late. I guess we will have to wait and see though to get the right answer though, because there are many different factors including the possibility of a failure of the anti-ice system.
The de-icing system was turned on 11 minutes after departing Newark NJ. More info here:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090217/ap_on_...e_into_home_122Todd

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I don't believe so far NTSB has given any indication that a problem existed while flying in autopilot. NTSB has also cautioned about the reported 134 KIAS when gear/flaps deployed, suggesting that the speed needs to be confirmed. Some sites have been concerned that if 134 kts is correct, that seems slow for approach in icing conditions. scott s..

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I don't believe so far NTSB has given any indication that a problem existed while flying in autopilot. NTSB has also cautioned about the reported 134 KIAS when gear/flaps deployed, suggesting that the speed needs to be confirmed. Some sites have been concerned that if 134 kts is correct, that seems slow for approach in icing conditions. scott s..
Sounds like AP was disengaged only slightly before the moment of upset. Flaps 10 and gear down were selected somewhere around 26 seconds before end of CVR/FDR? Don't know which is being referenced. Full power is selected just 6 seconds after flaps 10 and gear down. Nose up 31 degrees max and nose down 45 degrees, rolled 46 degrees left and 105 degrees right. Pitch was 30 degrees nose down, rolled 26 degrees right with 100 KIAS on impact.Severe icing was not reported and most other aircraft on app were using AP. It's possible the crew fell behind the curve IN icing, as opposed to icing being the direct cause, or perhaps something malfunctioned.

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Sounds like AP was disengaged only slightly before the moment of upset. Flaps 10 and gear down were selected somewhere around 26 seconds before end of CVR/FDR? Don't know which is being referenced. Full power is selected just 6 seconds after flaps 10 and gear down. Nose up 31 degrees max and nose down 45 degrees, rolled 46 degrees left and 105 degrees right. Pitch was 30 degrees nose down, rolled 26 degrees right with 100 KIAS on impact.Severe icing was not reported and most other aircraft on app were using AP. It's possible the crew fell behind the curve IN icing, as opposed to icing being the direct cause, or perhaps something malfunctioned.
Actually, the crew reported icing on their windscreen in the cockpit audio. That's pretty severe icing since they are typically heated and the FDR states anti-icing was on.

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Sounds like AP was disengaged only slightly before the moment of upset. Flaps 10 and gear down were selected somewhere around 26 seconds before end of CVR/FDR? Don't know which is being referenced. Full power is selected just 6 seconds after flaps 10 and gear down. Nose up 31 degrees max and nose down 45 degrees, rolled 46 degrees left and 105 degrees right. Pitch was 30 degrees nose down, rolled 26 degrees right with 100 KIAS on impact.Severe icing was not reported and most other aircraft on app were using AP. It's possible the crew fell behind the curve IN icing, as opposed to icing being the direct cause, or perhaps something malfunctioned.
In the midwest icing is pretty much in every winter forecast. Many times there is absolutely none, and other times it can be quite bad.If anything accurate can be said about the nature of the environment which produces icing conditions it is that it is fickle. Just as the surface has its own micro-climatology, so do clouds.That area just on the other side of the Great Lakes is well known for unpredictable icing, super cooled water droplets, and all kinds of other nasty stuff, and it can be quite localized.

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Actually, the crew reported icing on their windscreen in the cockpit audio. That's pretty severe icing since they are typically heated and the FDR states anti-icing was on.
I remember hearing somewhere that there was a crash sometime ago in a turboprop (I forgot which model) but some anti-ice devices do not go across the whole chord of surfaces, so even if the leading edge has ant-ice, other control surfaces may have ice on them. Not sure about the anti-ice on the Q400 though so it may be false.
In the midwest icing is pretty much in every winter forecast. Many times there is absolutely none, and other times it can be quite bad.If anything accurate can be said about the nature of the environment which produces icing conditions it is that it is fickle. Just as the surface has its own micro-climatology, so do clouds.That area just on the other side of the Great Lakes is well known for unpredictable icing, super cooled water droplets, and all kinds of other nasty stuff, and it can be quite localized.
Yup, the east coast generally has a lot of freezing rain because the temperatures usually hover around 30-34 degrees F when there is precip, so this could cause clear ice to form due to visible moisture freezing VERY rapidly. Right now we are getting some snow here in the DC area. Hoping school is closed early!Barometric pressure here is 29.90in and dropping, that means skies with moisture and lots of trouble for departing aircraft at KIAD and KHEF (temp is 32 degrees :()

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