Hello,At least we can eliminate one hypothesis already made before as the ACARS were maybe transmitted with the plane already broken aft the nose aera like the Lockerbie event....Indeed .. (from a pilots forum http://www.pprune.org/index.php ) you can obtain this technical information:

Thanks for the diagram of antenna locations, Saigon Lost. It gives evidence that the vertical fin was intact throughout the period of the ACARS reports, else there would have been HF Fail reports, too. The VOR antennas are not monitored, but the HF antenna couplers, in the leading edge of the vertical fin, are active LRU, Line Replaceable Units, that are powered, and provide fault reporting to the transceivers, which would, in turn, report to the ACMS, and from there to ACARS.

So when the ACARS message was transmitted (in a 4 minutes sequence) .. it's sure the nose was still connected wit the rest of the fuselage.. and also the vertical stabilizer was there ...Regards.Gus.

The blocked pitot tube theory has some predecessors.Here are 4 examples of TOTAL LOSS accidents involving blocked

I got this email tonight.I don't agree with the global warming part-but the rest is pretty much what I suspect-especially the "financial considerations" and meteorologically active region, which gives off a constant vertical updraft of air along its path" . "meeting a perfect storm" and continuing to punch thru a terrible situation:Did global warming help bring down Air France flight 447?04 June, 2009, 21:35As the investigation continues as to what brought down the French airlinerover the Atlantic Ocean with 228 people on board, a Russian climatologistbelieves global warming played a significant part.For even the most experienced pilots, flying over the IntertropicalConvergence Zone (ITCZ) is oftentimes a white-knuckle affair.The ITC zone is a constantly fluctuating band that is located between 5

Hello,Aaah well .... It was the polar bears doomed .. and now the aircrafts ....

Air companies should use maybe a bit more safe routes to

Well I see no conspiracy in this email but exactly what I speculated in my original post-(minus the global warming part which I don't think has anymore to do with this situation than it does that this year has been very cold where I live).The plane got into a terrible weather system (both being in an unstable area of the world where bad stuff pops up quite rapidly and due to running a tight schedule where huge diversions/turning back are not welcomed by passengers or management), and an iced up pitot tube which complicated an already difficult situation. In this day of extremely safe airline travel, I think it has been forgotten that flight is always a challenge, is not like riding a bus , and that the people in the cockpit are still captains of their ship having to make decisions based on many factors. In most cases now days vs. 50 years ago the outcome is almost always successful, but despite all the present automation and increased safeties there is still like in Ernest Gann's "Fate is the the Hunter"-fate....

and due to running a tight schedule where huge diversions/turning back are not welcomed by passengers or management), and an iced up pitot tube which complicated an already difficult situation.

Who would be a pilot under these conditions; it seems they are always in a no win situation: turn back and you may be accused of cowardice by those irrational passengers and management who are blind to the fact that they may just have had a lucky escape and are reluctant to acknowledge the Captain's skills and good judgement, push on and, well, you get my drift...We humans should take a long hard look at what we expect of those working on our behalf in such potentially life threatening situations.Mike

I'm not ruling out catastrophic airframe failure due to weather (30%) just as I'm not ruling out fin failure leading to catastrophic airframe failure (30%) but the bomb scenario (40%) is still in play. Look at this ..."http://"http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Terror-Names-Linked-To-Doomed-Flight-AF-447-Two-Passengers-Shared-Names-Of-Radical-Muslims/Article/200906215300405?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15300405_Terror_Names_Linked_To_Doomed_Flight_AF_447%3A_Two_Passengers_Shared_Names_Of_Radical_Muslims""]"http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Terror-Names-Linked-To-Doomed-Flight-AF-447-Two-Passengers-Shared-Names-Of-Radical-Muslims/Article/200906215300405?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15300405_Terror_Names_Linked_To_Doomed_Flight_AF_447%3A_Two_Passengers_Shared_Names_Of_Radical_Muslims"

I'm not ruling out catastrophic airframe failure due to weather (30%) just as I'm not ruling out fin failure leading to catastrophic airframe failure (30%) but the bomb scenario (40%) is still in play. Look at this ..."http://"http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Terror-Names-Linked-To-Doomed-Flight-AF-447-Two-Passengers-Shared-Names-Of-Radical-Muslims/Article/200906215300405?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15300405_Terror_Names_Linked_To_Doomed_Flight_AF_447%3A_Two_Passengers_Shared_Names_Of_Radical_Muslims""]"http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Terror-Names-Linked-To-Doomed-Flight-AF-447-Two-Passengers-Shared-Names-Of-Radical-Muslims/Article/200906215300405?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15300405_Terror_Names_Linked_To_Doomed_Flight_AF_447%3A_Two_Passengers_Shared_Names_Of_Radical_Muslims"

The last at least I read said the airlines had not confirmed this at all. I would think if anything they would prefer things going this way -as the other scenerio puts them at liability risk. Odd that they have taken the liability risk scenerio (faulty pitot tube/into bad weather) from day one instead of this one.....So for me the percentages would be different-will be interesting to see if there is anything to this.

Hello,Terrorists names cleared by french police ......

PARIS, 10 juin (Reuters) - Les services de renseignement fran

Hello,Terrorists names cleared by french police ......Google translation:Nevertheless .. this statement is ludicrous ...They stressed that no serious claim had been registered. When you checkback history of terrorists actions on planes .. :B747 Panam Lockerbie : no claim by terroristsDC-10 UTA : no claim by terroristsAir india 182 : no claim by terroristsAlthough the terrorist attack seems unlikely, the French authorities in complaisent with absurd and fantasy statements ....Regards.

Belga1...I proposed to you that all of this discussion was speculation, and it remains so. That is OK in my book. That is how mystery's are often solved without hard evidence. For example:Philippines Airlines Flight 434, a Boeing 747 which nearly crashed into the sea back in 1994, comes to mind. En route from Manila to Tokyo, a small explosion on board the aircraft ripped a hole in the side, killing a 24-year-old engineering student named Haruki Ikegami and nearly causing the airplane to crash. Luckily, there was an island with an emergency landing strip nearby. As author Simon Reeve explains in The New Jackals, it was the quick thinking captain and his

Please see this article from CNN regarding nothing has been confirmed about the names of the two men. Their birthdays have not been confirmed yet and in the absence of birthdays, their names may simply be "homonyms" or names which are common and happen to be identical to names of known terrorists:(from CNN): http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/06/...html#cnnSTCTextAlso, in order to prove a bomb, the bodies of the victims have to be proven to have a certain chemical residue. So let's not get too panicky just yet.On the other hand, the pitot tube issue is getting to be a very very heated debated with Air France, European and Airbus authorities:(from FIGARO, in French): http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/20...n-question-.php**TRANSLATION (rough, may be very accurate) from Google.com: According to the Figaro, the manufacturer would be willing to stop its fleet if its research department identified a factor that puts into question the safety of aircraft. The spokesman for the company denies. Airbus is ready to apply the "precautionary principle" in deciding, in agreement with the Bureau of Investigation and Analysis (BEA) of soil nailing in the world fleet of A 330 and A 340 or a thousand devices currently in use. "The Safety team and the engineers department of Toulouse working hard on all scenarios to understand what happened. This, in conjunction with our services and facilities affected by these aircraft. Our engineers think in terms of probability. If the research firm finds anything that endanger flights A 330 or A 340, Airbus will take the initiative to require that these aircraft can fly more, "says one good source Toulouse, headquarters of the European aircraft manufacturer. Technically, Airbus would have to issue a newsletter called "Accident information telex" to the BEA and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Since September 2003, this agency, rather than states, which has the authority to suspend the certificate of airworthiness of aircraft in the European Union. If such a decision was taken in Europe, ICAO, the World would have little choice but to follow suit. There are precedents for fleets nailed to the ground even before the investigation has determined the causes of an accident. In the aftermath of the crash of Concorde in Gonesse near Roissy, Jean-Claude Gayssot, the transport minister then ordered the 26 July 2000 the suspension of flights and their stoppage on July 30. Certificates of navigation of the device are canceled on August 16 by EASA. 13 Concorde in service in the world will be nailed to the ground until 31 May 2003, the date of the resumption of commercial flights by Air France. Accelerated replacement Later in time, in the 1980s after the crash of a McDonnell Douglas in which the engine is concerned, the fleet of Airbus A 300 equipped with the same engine that the American no longer right off. One hundred aircraft are concerned. The ban lasted only 48 hours because the investigation quickly revealed that the failure of the propulsion system was not reproducible on the A 300. For Airbus, which is, like Air France, in the heart of a controversy after the sensor in question, called pitot tubes manufactured by Thales in the accident of flight AF 447, no question of taking a logical responsible but not guilty. " "Airbus is a responsible and take full responsibility," says one in Toulouse. Wednesday, Airbus confirmed that the manufacturer had sent a note of technical information to its customers. "The note said that at this stage of the investigation we confirm that the fleet equipped with various Pitot tubes may continue to operate as is," said a spokesman for the manufacturer. Air France has decided to accelerate the replacement of these probes. Stefan Schaffrath, the spokesman for Airbus, said late Wednesday night that the airline had previously "no intention of nailing ground its fleet of A 330 and A 340, which are safe aircraft (see box below). Airbus denies the possibility of an asset Airbus denied late Wednesday evening to consider the fact to stop its miles A330 and A340 to replace the sensors. "This is false. The European Aviation Safety Agency issued a statement saying that all A330 and other Airbus can be operated safely," said Stefan Schaffrath, his spokesman. About "inconsistencies on the measured speed", he said that "it does not explain the sequence of events that led to the crash of Air France". As for the assumption that "a broken window would render the aircraft uncontrollable", Stefan Schaffrath said: "The data show no loss of power and show no loss of the control screen instruments. There is absolutely no evidence that there was loss of a window. At this stage, it is pure speculation. "============================================================================================*** But we must continue to keep in mind that the media is sensationalist and reports every bit of information they can get their hands on! And the media is in no position to have any technical expertise in aviation matters whatsoever. They just want to make a buck! So everyone, please remember this fact which is well-known, before believing anything you hear on TV, radio or in print. Most of the people in the media know even less than us flightsimmers about aircraft and yet, they seem to want to write these so-called "expert" analyses without even having ANY concrete facts as is the case with AF447. We just have to wait and see what is uncovered. Certainly, the discovery of victims' bodies should help prove or disprove the bomb theory and give everyone an idea of how these people died, which should she a lot of light on things. At least, it will prove (at least partly) what did NOT happen.John

*** But we must continue to keep in mind that the media is sensationalist and reports every bit of information they can get their hands on! And the media is in no position to have any technical expertise in aviation matters whatsoever. They just want to make a buck! So everyone, please remember this fact which is well-known, before believing anything you hear on TV, radio or in print. Most of the people in the media know even less than us flightsimmers about aircraft and yet, they seem to want to write these so-called "expert" analyses without even having ANY concrete facts as is the case with AF447. We just have to wait and see what is uncovered. Certainly, the discovery of victims' bodies should help prove or disprove the bomb theory and give everyone an idea of how these people died, which should she a lot of light on things. At least, it will prove (at least partly) what did NOT happen.John

...And the people said. AMEN!! :(

...yet, they seem to want to write these so-called "expert" analyses without even having ANY concrete facts as is the case with AF447. We just have to wait and see what is uncovered.

Those words apply equally to this thread.

Those words apply equally to this thread.

Good shot! :( Al

Those words apply equally to this thread.

I think the plot of the aircraft and weather I submitted above is a fact, and a faulty airspeed indication is also.As far as the media-they are always out of control-but a discussion here of what might possibly have happened is not sensational. All my pilot boards have similar discussions and it is usually for that very reason-to get away from the media frenzy and have meaningful discussions that is not clouded by selling advertising.Fact of the matter in this case is the cause may never be determined as finding the flight recorder is like finding a needle in a haystack, and conjecture may be the only "answer".