Maybe this is something you all have already been aware of for a while, but I found this worth mentioning. Many people say, that sometime in the future, planes are not gonna need pilots anymore. Despite the technology of nowadays, I didn't really believe in this, at least not for this century. Because computers cannot improvise as pilots do. What if something happens the computer wasn't programmed for?

But today on a news program in Holland, it was mentioned that testflights are already being done. And guess what? Succesfully. They've done several flights with a Beech 1900C (or D) equipped with advanced computers and no pilots whatsoever. It managed to avoid obstacles (other planes), take off, cruise and land without a single problem. This got me really worried: fully automated unmanned flights are not so far away anymore.

 

The technology is great, but there's one thing they overlooked: how many jobs are there gonna disappear? A huge amount of course. And dreams of many youths will go down the drain. Eventually, flying for hobbies might just disappear, including flight simming.

 

I just don't get where we are heading with the world, we are now only going backwards instead of forwards. All these automations are not good for the world. Millions of jobs are going to disappear, many hobbies will disappear, and eventually the world isn't worth living in anymore, because it's just so boring.

If the regulations changed and airlines started buying those aircraft, I would avoid those airlines like the plague. I want two people in front knowing what they are supposed to do and when they need to do it. Not a computer.

 

Look at UAL232, UAL811, the DLH A300 in Baghdad, JAL123, the AAL DC-10 in the '70s after the cargo door incident. Unless computers can control an aircraft in those situations, land safely and not say "game over; you're on your own", you cannot replace pilots. No matter how smart aircraft can become.

 

how many jobs are there gonna disappear?

 

Last I checked, Delta alone has thousands of pilots. And that's just one airline in one country.

 

many hobbies will disappear, and eventually the world isn't worth living in anymore,

 

Quite an extreme statement, don't you think. Flying isn't everything.

It makes me sad thinking of it, but I firmly believe we will see unmanned flight at some point in time. It may take some more decades, but it will come. It is probably as unimaginable for us today as traveling 80mph in a car was for an 1850's person.

 

Computers advance, algorithms advance, and the air transport business as well as the military has a great enough interest in this to warrant and fund extensive research on unmanned flight.

 

Our generations may not see it yet, but it will come, and it will come in stages so that the public will slowly get used to all sorts of unmanned vehicles, and what seems unimaginable today will become daily business.

 

A few top-of-the-line human pilots will probably be needed for very special missions, and they will be massively supported (or even surveilled) by computers.

 

Futuristic BS? We'll see.

 

My idea of flying? Definitely not.

Eventually, flying for hobbies might just disappear, including flight simming.

 

Flight simming is unmanned aviation. Is it not? flying an aircraft by computer 1000's of miles from its actual location.

Our generations may not see it yet, but it will come, and it will come in stages so that the public will slowly get used to all sorts of unmanned vehicles, and what seems unimaginable today will become daily business.

 

Rise of the machines...There is a movie or two about this, isn't there? Anyway, computers/artificial intelligence is just the next step in evolution. Somewhere out there in the future, they will run the world, just like you see in the movies. Humans? May be extinct?

Rise of the machines...There is a movie or two about this, isn't there? Anyway, computers/artificial intelligence is just the next step in evolution. Somewhere out there in the future, they will run the world, just like you see in the movies. Humans? May be extinct?

 

Extinct? I highly doubt it. What I find much more likely is for something like the Pixar movie WALL-E to happen. Which would totally suck. In the meantime, plenty of people like us would boycott airlines without pilots and make them bring them back.

plenty of people like us would boycott airlines without pilots and make them bring them back.

 

At first, yes. And, that's probably most of the reason, if not all, that we don't have unmanned flights right now. The flying public for the moment wants to see people in the cockpit. But, as bpcw001 said earlier, it's just a matter of time before what seems unimaginable today will become the reality and norm of tomorrow.

 

Even right now, most of a typical airline flight is done by the computer. The pilots are just there in case it screws up. My flight instructor used to say something about a saying in the aviation industry about having a dog in the cockpit too in the future. The dog was there just to bite the pilot's hand that tried to change or mess with the computer. Think about it, I bet at least 90% of any given flight is done with autopilot.

At first, yes. And, that's probably most of the reason, if not all, that we don't have unmanned flights right now. The flying public for the moment wants to see people in the cockpit. But, as bpcw001 said earlier, it's just a matter of time before what seems unimaginable today will become the reality and norm of tomorrow.

 

Even right now, most of a typical airline flight is done by the computer. The pilots are just there in case it screws up. My flight instructor used to say something about a saying in the aviation industry about having a dog in the cockpit too in the future. The dog was there just to bite the pilot's hand that tried to change or mess with the computer. Think about it, I bet at least 90% of any given flight is done with autopilot.

 

Usually, but not always. A friend of mine who flies with Alaska on the 737-4/7/8/9 - he's a real old timer and really likes hand-flying - he says that he hand flies up to FL280, where you must turn on the AP, and turns it off crossing FL280. My goal us to get into an airline when I'm done with high-school and college, and when I do, that's how I''l fly for sure, and I'm not a 60-some-year-old who flew the 727 and BAC-111. So, in short, there will always be people who fly the airplanes.

Eventually it may come to the airlines, how the athorthies & pax will react to this is another matter!

First it will show up in the military, they are always first. Then it will start with public transportation like the subway, taxis, buses, trains-AFAIK already implemented) then cars. Airliners will come last because of the complexity of the whole system, but I wouldn't worry for another 70+ years or so.

We can not deny the inevitable dominance of technology in certain fields. The human species has always known itself to be intellectually superior to all other living creatures, so it will of course be difficult to accept machines that are more capable and powerful than the human mind.

 

When Garry Kasparov lost to Deep Blue, chess lovers were devastated, but we have come to accept the superiority of chess computers. It will be a likewise sad moment to us aviation lovers when commercial aircraft become fully automated. The reality is, most travellers without our passion may not mind at all, just like how many of us do not mind the automation in other vehicles such as ships and trains.

 

It is also sad to think that digital technologies and electronics (e.g., personal computing and social networking) are becoming so important in our lives—perhaps more so to certain individuals than other people are. I got over this by realizing that developing technology is a part of the human endeavor, and we must embrace it and recognize our achievements with moderation, not view them as enemies and threats.

 

Anyway, enough with philosophy!

 

Think about it, I bet at least 90% of any given flight is done with autopilot.

In the real world, it is probably more, especially during long-haul flights. It seems as if many commercial aircraft pilots are using the autopilot most of the time above 1000 ft. That must be equivalent to less than two minutes of manual flight per most flights.

 

A friend of mine who flies with Alaska on the 737-4/7/8/9 - he's a real old timer and really likes hand-flying - he says that he hand flies up to FL280, where you must turn on the AP, and turns it off crossing FL280.

Does your friend normally fly ILS approaches, or does he fly completely visually when permitted? I like to fly the B747 up to 10000 ft (after accelerating to high speeds after this point, the aircraft becomes slightly difficult to control precisely) and down from glide slope interception. To me, part of the challenge of manual flight is trying to beat the autopilot in terms of comfort. Regarding precisely holding a course, this is impossible, but manual flight can be more comfortable in some areas (when done properly). For example, limiting abrupt and numerous pitch corrections after takeoff to fit a target speed can improve passenger comfort, as can landing smoothly.

There will always be a pilot on board airliners, so if something goes wrong and there's an accident the airline and the authorities can always place the blame on the (usually dead) pilot, which is politically expedient when you consider that the airlines and the aircraft manufacturers have a vested interest in protecting their respective multi-billion dollar industries.

 

However the co-pilot role will likely go away, replaced by computers or people on the ground. Once that happens half of all airline pilots will lose their jobs. IMO The best outcome for airline beancounters would be a single pilot operation employing a person from a low wage developing country and with minimal McDonalds-style training and minimal to no remuneration (Some pilots do work for free in the airline industry, Just Google "P2F") It has already happened in the shipping industry, I mean just look at all those Filipino sailors. Remember the legal term "International aircraft" isn't that different from ships.

Does your friend normally fly ILS approaches, or does he fly completely visually when permitted?

 

Honestly, I don't know. I would assume he flies fully visually when possible, since he spent years and years flying small GA aircraft for his own one-man charter company, and also flew the BAC-111 and 727, two very hands-on aircraft. He's pretty against letting the AP fly, and isn't a huge FD fan. I'll ask him later when I get the chance.

Never speak in absolutes.

 

There will not always be pilots in airplanes. What about brakemen on trains? Flight engineers? Telephone operators? Munincipal fire watchmen? They were all needed for safety. Each profession had a bell curve of talent and interest which yielded a percentage of PMDG-level train/engine/switchboard/fire fanatics. But they are by and large unnecessary today. Your train ticket, plane ticket, phone bill, and city taxes are lower today because of it. That capital has been freed to do other, more productive things. We got the bullet train, FADEC, the iPhone, and home alarm systems in their stead.

 

The world is flat, my friends.

What I don't understand about company's wanting automate everything is at some point no one will have a job and be able to buy thier products. And if Joe blow can get his ticket for $5 less on a plane with no pilot he'll be all for it since most people think pilots just push buttons. My thought has always been why is it that a doctor who has 400 lives in hands a year make 250k while a Rj copilot who has 400 lives in his hands a day make 14k a year since getting an ATP is just as hard as medical school

My thought has always been why is it that a doctor who has 400 lives in hands a year make 250k while a Rj copilot who has 400 lives in his hands a day make 14k a year since getting an ATP is just as hard as medical school

I think you are significantly underplaying the stress and work involved in the field of medicine and journey to becoming a happy, successful physician.

 

While I have no personal experience, I know that medical school is expensive, long, and rigorous. You need a very good academic record in order to be accepted, and have to go through many years of difficult training, compared to the training required for most other fields. After that, you have to serve a residency, during which you may be woken up constantly and irregularly and work long hours. After that, you may quite possibly not find a well-paying job or even a job at all, especially during such economically unstable times. After that, you risk feeling forever guilty or getting sued if you make potentially life-threatening mistakes.

 

Sure, one could argue that pilots must preserve the lives of their passengers every day for every flight. However, not only are commercial aircraft so highly automated, but the field of commercial aviation is less dangerous overall. Accidents are not supposed to happen during regular operations (most commercial pilots will never experience anything life threatening during their careers), whereas the patients of doctors earning as much as you specified are often coming with problems in anticipation of death if the doctor does not do well.