Some years ago, here in the region one train driver had a very bad day. As he got out at a stop because he reached the end of his leg he saw blood on the front of the lokomotive. He tought it may has been an animal, however he still called operations and they send out the police to search along the track.

Later that day the same train driver had a leg along the same route in the other dirrection. He wasn't told by the dispatcher in Innsbruck (300 kilometers away and not in the same state, a reason of staff reductions) forgot to tell this train driver that he had to drive slower because of policmen working on the tracks. As a reason the very same train driver, which hit a person commiting suicide earlier the day, hit two or three policmen which where removing bodyparts of the suicider.

That's horrible! That train driver must still feel immensely guilty. Of course we can never fully prevent people who do not care for their lives from committing suicide, but we can at least try by taking necessary precautions and safety steps, such as creating and maintaining physical barriers and suicide support hotlines where appropriate.

In my personal opinion, the future looks like a field of nothing but bulls***. I would hate civilization based upon computers, and all of these pointless technologies just replacing us humans! It beats the point in living, why live when you can`t fulfill something for the population, in this case years of serving travellers who safely need to get from point A to B? It is why I prefer things like homemade products, and older music compared to modern day music based upon computers and all that autotune stuff (I mean alternative rock is my favorite, but thats less computer dependent ). I think that these scientist should think about the consequences before even making their stuff, pure evil I say.

Also to add to my rant, having computers operate the world would not only make it pointless to live, but also venerable. Terrorists wont have to go through security and all to terrorize the world, its simply a few clicks for them to cause mayhem.

In my personal opinion, the future looks like a field of nothing but bulls***. I would hate civilization based upon computers, and all of these pointless technologies just replacing us humans! It beats the point in living, why live when you can`t fulfill something for the population, in this case years of serving travellers who safely need to get from point A to B? It is why I prefer things like homemade products, and older music compared to modern day music based upon computers and all that autotune stuff (I mean alternative rock is my favorite, but thats less computer dependent ). I think that these scientist should think about the consequences before even making their stuff, pure evil I say.

Also to add to my rant, having computers operate the world would not only make it pointless to live, but also venerable. Terrorists wont have to go through security and all to terrorize the world, its simply a few clicks for them to cause mayhem.

 

I can't agree more with you. + 1 million.

Yeah.....like for example we flightsimmers would be much more productive if those damn computers didn't exist, those damn computer scientists............... :Big Grin:

Something which is every componist's (worth the name) nightmare came true last July 2012. A computer capable of composing original pieces based on the input given to it (like which instruments to use, how long, genre, etc... you name it).

That machine can produce a sophisticated piece of classical music in about 10 minutes (something a lot of contemporary componists said they were really jealous about...). For the ones interested :

http://www.guardian....classical-music

 

All to say that whatever we think is needed in order to fly an aircraft safely from A to Z, at some point a computer will be able to do it (and if you ask me, in an even safer way than a human can do...). 50 years ago who would have tought that in 2013 a heavy aircraft like a T7 could be operated by only 2 men? (the rest being taken care of by... yes a computer) not many I would say.

 

Like some already said, I do not think it will happen during our lifespan, but it is foolish to believe that it will never happen (and yes, even for PAX flights sir!)

To be able get to the state that unmanned systems can take over airline jobs, we still have a very long way to go in many many respects.

 

At the moment, the recommended Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operation is carried out at a 2-to-1 ratio, meaning 2 operators to 1 UAV; it is also recommended to have the 3rd (1 pilot, 1 sensor operator, 1 mission commander). And this is only for an existing UAV that's in service with no people (passengers) onboard. That is an example of one issue associated with Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS).

 

Imagine how many airlines are out there, and how many aircraft it has now. This is a second problem, to include UASs in modern airspace. You need to be able to incorporate UAS into manned airspace, how do you display them on the radar? How do you have UASs working with manned aircraft? How do you see these two being displayed in the same airspace and still allow the ATC to have control over potential hazards? For this I know it is an active research area, at least there is one project dedicated to building the aviation regulations for the inclusion of UASs in our modern airspace.

 

Regarding the smarts and decision making. It is completely possible. There are soooooo many researchers in this area it's not funny; people are looking at reactive path-planning, collision avoidance, general path-planning and optimization, and many that I can't name. Even more interesting, people are looking at how to "grow" a computer (using neural technology ~~ not my area) so that it is able to learn new things (like people).

 

So having said that, for unmanned systems to totally take over our current manned airspace, there's quite a way to go, because there is simply so many areas, that the researchers haven't explored and perfected, so many challenges to overcome yet.

Its more of a reality than some of you think, its not going to happen next week, but it isnt technology that holds it back from happening, Its people, unions, public perception and that good old human trait that some people really strugle with "Change".

 

As Brendan posted there is massive amounts of work going on with this, and it isnt just about having a plane without a pilot (that bits simple)- its the whole infratstructure around it that needs the development, the intergration of it across the globe. You look at present aviation - and getting new technology into aircraft, atc, or ground systems is a vast task. a really simple example is MLS -you can pretty much buy one off the shelf, doesnt require anywhere near the complications that setting an ILS up does etc and there you go its installed at your airport - great now small problem - all the aircraft that want to fly into your airport now need to have the equipment on board to use it. This has great economic challengs, regulations that have to be adopeted around the globe - facitilites in place for aircraft that dont or unable to have etc etc etc...

 

But those who think that they will not see more or complete automation in their life times are either short sighted - or very old. A lot of its smoke and mirrors really that been created by unions, movies, and sensationalised media, but if you look at Pilots, and say ATC of the two Pilots environment is the most systemised environement, from the automation of the planes, to the company SOPS that must be followed to the letter. ATC is still quite an unsystemised place with ATC still reacting and "making it up" as they go along to weave planes around the sky from a to b, yet pubilc perception(and the unform as a lot to do with this) creates this idea that the guys/gals up front are there struggling with the controls, flying the plane across the world, turning left at the third mountain peak. Not realising actually all they doing ismonitoring a system, and inputting into it what others(ATC) tell them to. That the FO may have only flown a real plane a handful of times, having done most of their flying to that point in simulators. The captain isnt now some 60 year old war vet, who flew planes with only one engine left and bullet holes in the wing and that should anything go wrong hell safe the day - that in true fact of reality if something goes wrong with this flying computer - theyll actually struggle to even work out whats wrong let alone what to do about it. Public perception isnt aware that actually most saftety incidents are caused by the human interface, whether that been an actual error in handling, an interface issue with the human ATC and Human co-pilot or just plane simple stupid things us humans do sometimes. That in most cases the computer would do a far better job of sorting out the issue than the human, and wouldnt have caused the issue in the first place. when that public perception is changed and people realise that the guy up front isnt actually capable anymore of saving them and more likley be the reason for their death then the technology will not have any barriers.

 

I mentioned about ATC being not as systemised - and here is the example of that now changing to, in the last year there have been major systems installed that do ATC better than ATCOs, ATCOS at present keep planes apart based on skill and judgement - there now systems in place that predict best climbs, decents, tracks, where the conflcitions will happen etc. Not only are these systems eliminating the human errors in judegement, but they are enabling a more perfect flight profile, stopping ac from needing to level off, reduce holding, more direct routings, etc all saving money and the environment...these systems are advancing, they connect into the aircraft systems, to determine real aircraft performance, based on weight, and even company settings, The real deal here is there already restictions on airspace and what aircraft can fly in it based on the equipment the aircraft has on board, this will advance further as more systemisation and automisation progresses, an airline that doesnt have these systems will not only find they are penalised with more expensive routings, or just less efficitent flights, which will result in their competitiors having a major advantage over them, even paz wil choose the other airline, as when airline x can fly you from a to b in 30mins, and for half the cost compared to airline y that takes an hour, and charges more because they cant do the "perfect flight" its what people will choose.

 

Competition in ATC and airlines, is driving this change, around the globe ATC is now not state owned and service like the police etc airports, airlines, will want the ATC service that can do it cheaper and more effictively, ATC will evolve with tech but that will need airlines to do the same, and those that dont will not be in business.

 

In regards to automation and life - well this is where you have to think differently and not just base it on how our lifes are now. We live our lifes because of what technolgy allows - 100 or so years ago you couldnt even fly on a plane around the world like we do now, Pilots as a proffesion didnt exist, ATC obviously didnt! Airports didnt exist - just think of all those jobs that didnt exist. Our lifes will evolve with the technology opening up new things that we can enjoy and do.

 

One final thought - we all only work to earn money, no matter how much you enjoy your jobs or the benefits that it may bring to society. But money is a man made creation - it actually doesnt need to exist...we dont have to send cash off every month to some god or entity to make sure that we have natural resources or enough oxygen to breath...purpose of life is to live not work!

@JC75

 

One of the best comments ever, about this topic.. Its just something we will grow into and get used to.. But lots of people are afraid of what is coming, me as well when i think about self learning AI in 2030.. I Read an amazing book by Ray Kurzweil, a must read about all that is coming.. And your right, purpose of life is to live and not to work, right now in the current system most people are slaves to debt unfortunately.. Money creates almost all problems on this planet..

Its more of a reality than some of you think . . . Its . . . that good old human trait that some people really strugle with "Change".

if you look at Pilots, and say ATC of the two Pilots environment is the most systemised environement, from the automation of the planes, to the company SOPS that must be followed to the letter. ATC is still quite an unsystemised place with ATC still reacting and "making it up" as they go along to weave planes around the sky from a to b, yet pubilc perception(and the unform as a lot to do with this) creates this idea that the guys/gals up front are there struggling with the controls, flying the plane across the world, turning left at the third mountain peak. Not realising actually all they doing ismonitoring a system, and inputting into it what others(ATC) tell them to.

In regards to automation and life - well this is where you have to think differently and not just base it on how our lifes are now. We live our lifes because of what technolgy allows - 100 or so years ago you couldnt even fly on a plane around the world like we do now, Pilots as a proffesion didnt exist, ATC obviously didnt! Airports didnt exist - just think of all those jobs that didnt exist. Our lifes will evolve with the technology opening up new things that we can enjoy and do.

purpose of life is to live not work!

Excellent post. Good job being logical and not being too "humanistically biased". Above are some excerpts I consider highlights of your post. I enjoyed reading, and thank you for taking the time to write!

Honestly, this is never going to happen. You will always need a crew monitoring the ship. What you might see is a combination of smart AI and professional pilots, something Airbus might get to.

 

A nice example could be any SCIFI universe with intergalactic/stellar ships and you will observe most of them will have their own sentient AI assisting the captain and his crew. The smart AI can think and surely can take command of the ship in any given case, but the captain is still the captain.

but the captain is still the captain.

 

Not in WALL-E, actually. "Otto" doesn't want the captain to fly the ship, remember? :rolleyes: Or remember 2001?

Not in WALL-E, actually. "Otto" doesn't want the captain to fly the ship, remember? :rolleyes: Or remember 2001?

 

Yeah, dealing with AI rampancy is also something you want to weight in when you're putting your life in it's hands.

Yeah, dealing with AI rampancy is also something you want to weight in when you're putting your life in it's hands.

 

Whoops, I repeated Adial.

Edited January 23, 201313 yr by PHXMD-11

You know what the only proffession they always say is safe, is undertakers, going on from the saying that two things in life that are certain is Death and Taxes.

 

Well some countries dont have tax anymore...and death...well we even working on that one to!

 

I can assure you that Systemisation and Automation is coming very very rapidly and in my lifetime(im 37) I can with upmost certainty say that both ATC and Aviation in general including Pilots will see some major radical changes to how they operate and how much Human input and control occurrs. Why do I say this? because its already happening!! Its coming in many forms, some quite simple, some more advanced, and the more that comes, the faster it will happen because it will change public percerption without the public even noticing, peoples demands, environment, and economic drivers, will all accelerate this.

 

of course if they finally manage to work out how to succesfully do matter transport(theyve achieved it already in a kind of form) - then it will happen very quickly!

I read the first page of this thread, then I gave up. So I apologise if what I am about to say has been said already.

 

Grow up.

 

Life changes.

 

Move on.

 

etc. etc.

 

We do not have driverless busses yet, but we do have driverless trains. The reason is simple. Driverless buses have to deal with vehicles driven by drivers, driverless trains don't. For every skillful and heroic pilot who saved their plane in difficult circumstances, there are ten who caused the death of everyone on board. Lots of RW pilots prefer to hand fly, which is a perfectly normal, natural, even expected reaction from someone who has invested an enourmous part of their life learning to deal with just about every possible emergancy scenario that could arise, and than is expected to just sit on their sheepskin lined ar*se and do nothing.

 

All day.

 

Every day.

 

For years.

 

And years.

 

That is what the 'turbulence' warnings from the cockpit are for.

 

However... As a fare paying passenger, I care about as much for the pilots wants, needs, feelings and personal aspirations, as I do for a bus or taxi driver. They are being paid to do one job; get me to the stated destination (or a suitable alternative), alive, safely, and preferably on-time.

 

By automating flying, you take away the adrenaline. Not from the passengers, you understand. You only take it away from the pilots. And even then, you only take it away from the pilots that need it.

 

Did you really want to fly with a pilot that needs adrenaline?