A sad day for all innocents involved..

So you might think that, seeing as the Iranian military knew they were going to be lobbing missiles inot the sky, they would have warned an Iranian airport (Tehran) not to have any planes arriving or departing during the process... 

The more the iranians claim that it was "scientifically impossible" the less one is inclined to believe them.

Even from an outsiders perspective with little knowledge of aviation it is clear that things can not easily explained away with "technical difficulties".

Shooting at the US messed up and hit an airliner... 

I figured as much when they didn't want to release the black box.

Edited January 9, 20206 yr by Dillon

 

A lot of "friendly fire" incidents (if that is what this latest crash is; the theories so far are quite damning in that regard) have happened over the years in many countries, and will continue to do so as long as humans are involved.

Some mistaken identities are no doubt far less mistaken, but hopfully the truth will out, despite any "cover-ups".

Edited January 9, 20206 yr by 188AHC
Removed comment concerning nukes

3 hours ago, Avidean said:

This is a horrible day for Canada

It is. 63 Canadian citizens died. Primary victims. But we`re talking about several hundreds of secondary victims; families, loved ones, friends, peers, co-workers, employers etc. It`s happened before and it will happen again. I lost a friend who was a passenger on Air India Flight 182 which had 268 Canadian citizens onboard. It`s all so suddenly and unbelievably  shocking. Our technology can do marvellous things. But in the wrong hands it  keeps doing the same old thing. 

Indeed, I doubt if many Canadians including myself will discover that they are not more than a couple of degrees separated someone who was on that plane, This is a big country with a very low population density. I have to admit that I did check the website of Persian acquaintance of mine in Toronto who I believe is occasionally in Iran and I was glad to see it all looked normal.

If this was indeed an accident, then one must wonder how a government who would allow this to happen could maintain control of much more frightening weapons (of mass destruction).

Condolences to the victims, as well their families and friends.

Greg

Here's an interesting read on what would have needed to happen for the plane to be shot down.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/31791/lets-talk-about-how-iran-could-have-shot-down-a-737-full-of-innocent-people

Sad day for the victims, their families and friends.

No forensic investigation is now possible on the ground. Everything has been bulldozed.

 

16 hours ago, cmpbellsjc said:

According to this, looks like an accidental shoot down.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-airplane-shot-down-by-mistake-by-iranian-anti-aircraft-missile-pentagon-officials-believe

How launching an AA missile towards a civil airliner which has just taken off from one’s international airport, amidst a light night traffic,  can be called accidental or unintentional is a mystery to me. 

Edited January 10, 20206 yr by domkle

As soon as I read the first incoming breaking news on my phone about a plane crash in Iran I thought something didn't pass the smell test. That is the fact that besides the news of the crash itself, nearly every first report of the crash included the alleged cause of the accident, labeling it either engine fire/malfunction or technical problems. Everyone who has at least some knowledge about aviation knows there is no way to know the cause of a plane crash just hours after it happened, let alone when it comes to technical problems with the aircraft itself. Adding to this not seeming right is that Iranian officials kept insisting the cause were technical problems like it was an established fact hours after it happened.

Looking at the pictures of parts of the wreckage published on the very day of the crash, you can see holes in pieces of the aircraft that, while I'm not an air crash investigator, do look pretty odd. Of course, pieces flying around as a consequence of an uncontained engine failure could puncture parts of the aircraft or something might pierce through parts of wreckage upon impact with the ground, but when you see several of those holes in different and unrelated parts of the aircraft it's a kind of damage I have never seen on pictures of airplane wreckage before.

Especially striking are the pictures of the vertical stabilizer. On avherald.com, there are pictures of the VS from both sides. On one side, you can see a relatively large puncture with the material bending inwards, into the VS. On another picture of the other side after personnel have turned the VS around, you can clearly see the exit hole with the material bending outward, away from the VS. This looks strikingly close to a missile (as in bullet) of some sort puncturing the VS from the right to the left and not like something caused by debris hurled around from an uncontained engine failure.

While it's probably not impossible with parts of debris potentially flying around and damaging aircraft systems, I also think it's unlikely the transponder would stop working as a consequence of an engine failure. As far as I know, the aircraft kept flying for about 2 minutes after the transponder stopped sending data which would, I think, suggest significantly more damage than an uncontained engine failure would cause, even if debris penetrated other parts of the aircraft.

Lastly, on the initial footage of the impact you can see the aircraft burning and it looks like way more flames than in case of an engine fire. Of course, debris penetrating the fuel tanks and subsequently leaking fuel igniting on the hot gases from the engines would cause large flames as well, but when you see the second video of a missile supposedly hitting the aircraft, I'm joining the others above in terms of gut feeling. Then, of course, you have Trump and Trudeau both reporting having received intelligence indicating the aircraft was indeed shot down.

As for people wondering why random citizens would be filming the black sky early in the morning, I think you have to consider how almost everyone has a phone with a decent camera in their pockets at all times these days. It's possible they heard a first missile launch or saw a first impact flash in the sky and, knowing about the tension and the Iranian missile launches directed at the US bases prior to this crash, started filming, suspecting the US retaliating in some way.

 

 

44 minutes ago, domkle said:

How launching an AA missile towards a civil airliner which has just taken off from one’s international airport, amidst a light night traffic,  can be called accidental or unintentional is a mystery to me.

I agree in that the operation of the nearby international airport must have been clear to whoever is ultimately responsible for what seems to have happened and measures to ensure safety of civil air traffic obviously have to be taken in a conflict like this, like shutting down the airport for the time being for example, but I also can't see why the Iranian military would intentionally target a civil aircraft at all, especially one of a Ukrainian operator with lots of Iranians (although many with dual citizenship, but still) onboard that doesn't even have anything to do with the US.

(This is probably an off-topic political discussion, though.)

Edited January 10, 20206 yr by threegreen

4 hours ago, threegreen said:

I agree in that the operation of the nearby international airport must have been clear to whoever is ultimately responsible for what seems to have happened and measures to ensure safety of civil air traffic obviously have to be taken in a conflict like this, like shutting down the airport for the time being for example, but I also can't see why the Iranian military would intentionally target a civil aircraft at all, especially one of a Ukrainian operator with lots of Iranians (although many with dual citizenship, but still) onboard that doesn't even have anything to do with the US.

(This is probably an off-topic political discussion, though.)

At that stage, noboby knows but the words "accidental" or 'unintentional" seem premature if not political in themselves. 

A series of about a dozen tweets by a Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute on similar destruction of airliners by military assets is a very interesting read, including his conclusion Whilst there is a sad history of mis-IDing and destroying civilian airliners especially during crises, #PS752 still stands out. None of the others were shot down by a state whilst in its own airspace, under radar control by its own ATC, sticking accurately to a flight plan. End/

 

 

Edited January 10, 20206 yr by domkle

8 hours ago, lownslo said:

If this was indeed an accident, then one must wonder how a government who would allow this to happen could maintain control of much more frightening weapons (of mass destruction).

There have been many airliners shoot down by mistake through the years (not to mention friendly fire on targets other than airliners) by various countries.

For example, in the '80s the USA shot down an Iran airliner with 290 people on board.

Edited January 10, 20206 yr by Murmur

5 hours ago, domkle said:

At that stage, noboby knows but the words "accidental" or 'unintentional" seem premature if not political in themselves. 

A series of about a dozen tweets by a Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute on similar destruction of airliners by military assets is a very interesting read, including his conclusion Whilst there is a sad history of mis-IDing and destroying civilian airliners especially during crises, #PS752 still stands out. None of the others were shot down by a state whilst in its own airspace, under radar control by its own ATC, sticking accurately to a flight plan. End/

Premature? Yes, but political? Even if this flight is different from previous tragedies of the same type I can't see any way shooting down this airliner would get the Iran anything.

10 minutes ago, threegreen said:

Premature? Yes, but political? Even if this flight is different from previous tragedies of the same type I can't see any way shooting down this airliner would get the Iran anything.

I don't say that the shooting is political, only that IMHO the West characterizing it so fast as an accident is political. There are a couple of scenarios possible to explain the downing of the aircraft. In any case, as the RUSI fellow I quoted above says, it doesn't look like any shooting of an airliner before.   But  I don't want to enter into a speculative debate. It would be frowned upon by Avsim (and legitimately so) and,  in any case, the lack of deep intelligence makes it difficult to choose the right one, at this time.